Morgan Stanley: 40% of college students plan to buy Macs

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  • Reply 41 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BuzDots View Post


    Mel, You and I may be the old farts in this crowd...



    As far as "the spread" goes, the most expensive computer I have owned was a USED 1987 Mac SE with dual floppy drives running at a blistering 8MHz and some extra RAM and an Apple Laser printer. I paid 2500.00 for the SE and "stole" the laser printer for $3000.00



    I don't mind being called a fart, but please, not old.



    I don't know what you needed your computer for, but I only spent that much because I was doing photo, graphics, publishing, and video work that I had to take home from my company (didn't always have the time there, things took soooo long), and my own personal clients, and occasional music mastering.



    I wouldn't have spent that much if I couldn't have the accountant take it off my taxes, and amortize it.
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  • Reply 42 of 95
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I know real life pretty well, I've lived 58 years of it, and computers have been a very big part of my professional career.



    Just who do you think bought the 7+ million Macs last year? Who do you think is buying the 9 million or so this year?



    I daresay that doesn't make you an expert on what 21 year olds are doing...



    The answer to your question of who is buying these Macs is... my customers. I support home and small business users in all things computing. And I live and work in a very rich area of the country. And the people buying these Macs are rich, we're talking top 10% of the populous rich. I have many others who consider buying Macs, but decide not to when they see the price difference.
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  • Reply 43 of 95
    davidwdavidw Posts: 2,184member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    It seems that there is some confusion over what this survey says.

    When you graduate you have FAR less justification for spending 2-3X the money on a laptop that you will use FAR less often than you did in college.



    No one's talking about having to spend 2-3x the money for a laptop. More people now buying laptops than desktops is not a fad. It's a trend. A trend that will grow larger as laptops meet the needs of user in terms of CPU, battery life, weight, storage, price, etc..



    A $1000.00 laptop now (whether PC or Mac) will blow the tops out of my $3000 450mhz G4 PowerMac (circa 2000). And this desktop can still do over 80% of what I need a desktop to do. Where as I (and many back then) purchased a more powerful desktop first and later a (less powerful) laptop for mobility. Many now are buying a powerful laptop as their primary computer and maybe a desktop later.



    And these college grads already spent 3 to 4 years using a laptop. Whether they paid for that laptop or not is of no concern. And it doesn't matter how often they will use a computer now, compare to their college days. They will still need a computer. And it is only logical that they will be buying another laptop for their personal use when the one they have out grow it's usefulness.



    And once they go the laptop route there is no longer a big difference in cost between a PC laptop vs Mac laptop. For sure not 2-3x of what they were using before. $1000.00 now will buy a laptop (whether PC or Mac) that is twice as fast and half the cost as the one they got for college 4 years ago. Most people will not consider spending anything less than this (on a new laptop) when the laptop is going to be their primary (and often) only computer.



    It doesn't matter if they can't afford a new laptop right out of college (there's always the used route). It only matters that they will, most likely, eventually buy a Mac. Even if they have to wait little longer to save up for it. Even if they have to buy a cheap $400.00 PC to tied them over.



    And even if not all of the 40% grads surveyed buy a Mac, it doesn't mean that less than 40% of future grads will be buying Macs'. Remember, a good percentage of the other 60% can also change their mind and buy a Mac instead of a PC. Apple owns over 40 to 80% of many sectors. So having 40% of future grads buying a Mac is not beyond belief. It's no where near the same as saying Apple will own 40% of the computer market in the next 4 years. Though that may also be not beyond belief, if this trend continues.
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  • Reply 44 of 95
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DavidW View Post


    No one's talking about having to spend 2-3x the money for a laptop.



    I think the issue lies with people comparing the cheapest PC notebook to the cheapest Apple notebook when they cry foul. Which isn't a logical way to compare systems, but obviously there are plenty of people that do it.



    PS: Paragraphs would be helpful.
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  • Reply 45 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    I daresay that doesn't make you an expert on what 21 year olds are doing...



    The answer to your question of who is buying these Macs is... my customers. I support home and small business users in all things computing. And I live and work in a very rich area of the country. And the people buying these Macs are rich, we're talking top 10% of the populous rich. I have many others who consider buying Macs, but decide not to when they see the price difference.



    I think I know about as much of what they're doing as you do. I ty very hard to keep in touch with younger people. A fair number of my friends have college age kids, and they also have friends. We're pretty friendly, and I do speak to them you know.



    I also read as much as I can about what's going on. The professional publications talk about what is happening in colleges, both amongst the students, as well as the staffs. Mac use is rising in both areas.



    Harvard, and many other universities are reporting these results,so don't be so amazed.



    We're seeing things such as this happening all over.



    http://www.bsu.edu/ucs/article/0,137...0-6958,00.html



    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles..._campuses.html



    http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/arc...ws/18871.shtml

    http://macdailynews.com/index.php/we...omments/15070/



    http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/11/...ge.mac.switch/



    http://www.networkworld.com/community/node/11991



    http://www.mnsu.edu/news/read/?id=ol...per=topstories



    http://thedartmouth.com/2007/10/18/news/macs/



    That's just a very few bits of info. I didn't bother with more for now.





    I also see the younger crowd through my daughter, who is almost 17, and her friends, as well as doing work for the NYC educational system, as a technical advisor on computing platforms and networking (unpaid, of course).



    So yes, I do think I'm keeping track of what's going on.



    Your experience is odd, to say the least. It doesn't match up with anyone else's.
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  • Reply 46 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I think the issue lies with people comparing the cheapest PC notebook to the cheapest Apple notebook when they cry foul. Which isn't a logical way to compare systems, but obviously there are plenty of people that do it.



    PS: Paragraphs would be helpful.



    One of the articles I linked to said that the average price that college students pay for their computers is about $1,300. Not bargain priced at all.



    Quote:

    "US College students have spent an average of $1,290 on their computers, resulting in more than $22 billion spent by those currently in college.? said Dan Coates, co-founder of SurveyU.



    From our very own site:



    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles..._campuses.html
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  • Reply 47 of 95
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zanshin View Post


    Welcome to the time of the Millennium Workers! They want near-constant feedback from supervisors, they want explicit work instructions, and they want to be rewarded publicly for their methodical and typically mediocre performance (just like on the soccer fields where as kids, everyone gets a trophy, and score is not kept).



    Priceless sociological observation. Conforms to my experience. But, are you suggesting that Mac is the apropriate product for these lazy MWs?
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  • Reply 48 of 95
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post


    Funny, I know a couple of families that between them, over the years since the mid '80s, had 10 Apple computers/laptops. And they are middle class. So your point being?! \



    Good for you and your "couple of families". My response was to the obnoxious reply that the other 60% who did not buy Apple are nuts. The reality is far more grim than that in economic terms in this country, my friend. I also should have included poor families as well.

    My point being that the % could be more if there were cheaper laptops from Apple as the cost is currently twice as much. An Apple laptop cost $1,100 minimum , a Dell $500- you do the math.

    And I am not saying they both have the same features or power. But both can surely use internet and perform Office - the basic student needs. It's really not that hard to comprehend.
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  • Reply 49 of 95
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    One of the articles I linked to said that the average price that college students pay for their computers is about $1,300. Not bargain priced at all.







    From our very own site:



    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles..._campuses.html



    Anybody and everybody who has had a basic statistics course knows that averages can be totally misleading. You can have so many samples on one end of the spectrum offsetting the other extreme- giving you that average. Your point is useless.
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  • Reply 50 of 95
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I think the issue lies with people comparing the cheapest PC notebook to the cheapest Apple notebook when they cry foul. Which isn't a logical way to compare systems, but obviously there are plenty of people that do it.




    An $1,100 laptop compared to a $500 laptop is not crying foul but simply reality to most working families faced with basic college needs in a computer. Only a price comparison is needed as most student's use is for the basics- internet , word processing, and spreadsheet.
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  • Reply 51 of 95
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    An $1,100 laptop compared to a $500 laptop is not crying foul but simply reality to most working families faced with basic college needs in a computer. Only a price comparison is needed as most student's use is for the basics- internet , word processing, and spreadsheet.



    Your enumeration lacked one important thing : showing off.

    A few years ago it was the sneakers you had which determined your social status - now its the laptop. Clunky Dell or Lenovo => Born without money. MacBook Air : ubercool

    Quite frankly : what do you think is fatsre to take notes with in a lecture :



    a/ a laptop

    b/ a notepad



    Unless you know how to type 10 finger style blind the notepd should win this shoot-out rather quickly.
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  • Reply 52 of 95
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I think the issue lies with people comparing the cheapest PC notebook to the cheapest Apple notebook when they cry foul. Which isn't a logical way to compare systems, but obviously there are plenty of people that do it.



    PS: Paragraphs would be helpful.



    Exactly. And you can claim that it's not logical, but it's the way real people do it. Believe me, I've helped people with these purchasing decisions. As much as I like Macs, I can't in good faith tell my customer to buy one when the cheapest Mac they can get costs $700 more than the cheapest PC they can get. If the PC was a clunker (besides the fact that it is a PC) THEN I push them away from it. But a basic Dell, with dual processors, 1 GB of RAM and Windows XP will be every bit as fast to the end user as any Mac.



    And believe it or not, enough people come from the PC world to buy a Mac and HATE it that I am very careful who I recommend get a Mac. The way I put it to them is that yes, if you are coming at it from a blank slate, the Mac may be more intuitive. But if you have experience with PCs, you are going to have problems using a Mac. So I have to weigh just how much my customer is willing to learn vs the inherent superiority of the Mac in things like spyware and viruses.



    When my customer spends $1300 on a Mac and $500 on me helping them with it, only to return it after 2 weeks in total frustration, that looks bad for me, so I avoid those problems by being conservative. I've helped order, purchase and configure probably about 200 computers in the past two years, so I'm not just giving you a "I have a couple friends who have 10 Macs" or "my daughter has friends who like Macs". My sample is several hundred total strangers who tend to have plenty of money and high educations. I'll take my sample over those any day.
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  • Reply 53 of 95
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    Your experience is odd, to say the least. It doesn't match up with anyone else's.



    You realize that your universe of people that you're comparing my experience to consists of an Apple fan message board, right? You can say 'anyone can come here' but surely you understand that 90% of the people here are fans. **And I'm a fan too**



    My experience matches plenty of other people. They just don't happen to come here.



    FWIW, my POV is this - I am a PC user, have no interest in using a Mac. I find them pretty annoying in a number of ways. I do have dozens of customers with Macs, so I am very comfortable using them and I service Macs for those people. Hell, I just helped my girlfriend buy a Macbook Air last week. She loves it, but she's very confused with a number of differences with the PC.



    But I own Apple stock and have for a couple years now, since my customers started asking me in large numbers whether they should get a Mac. Seeing that groundswell of support, I bought the stock, but only recommended Macs to those who could afford them (a small subset of my clients, even though those clients pay me $75 and $90 an hour for computer help) AND (most critically) those who were willing to learn something new.



    You'd be surprised how small that group is, even in the DC area where money flows around freely. That's why I know that the 40% number is terribly inflated. I fully believe that it is a desire type reading, but when cold reality sinks in, most people don't have $700 extra to spend on a computer. And no, for a college grad, the home laptop is not going to be the only PC they use. They will have to sit in front of a computer for 8-10 hours every day at work and will come home ready to let their eyes rest. Most people spend VERY little time on their computers at home, but at college they probably spend 50% of their waking hours using one.
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  • Reply 54 of 95
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by freelander51 View Post


    Your enumeration lacked one important thing : showing off.

    A few years ago it was the sneakers you had which determined your social status - now its the laptop. Clunky Dell or Lenovo => Born without money. MacBook Air : ubercool

    Quite frankly : what do you think is fatsre to take notes with in a lecture :



    a/ a laptop

    b/ a notepad



    Unless you know how to type 10 finger style blind the notepd should win this shoot-out rather quickly.



    There is a BIG difference between showing off with a $100 pair of sneakers and a $1,800 laptop. Why not drive to school in a big ol' Lexus while your at it too!
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  • Reply 55 of 95
    buzdotsbuzdots Posts: 452member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I don't know what you needed your computer for, but I only spent that much because I was doing photo, graphics, publishing, and video work...



    I wouldn't have spent that much if I couldn't have the accountant take it off my taxes, and amortize it.



    That is exactly what I was doing at the time, minus the video.

    I just traded in the LaserWriter about 4 years ago (actually it still worked I just got tired of "cable splicing") and the SE is in a box in my garage.
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  • Reply 56 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    Anybody and everybody who has had a basic statistics course knows that averages can be totally misleading. You can have so many samples on one end of the spectrum offsetting the other extreme- giving you that average. Your point is useless.



    No, actually, your point is useless. Your understanding of stats is poor. According to your read, a very few people bought computers for $10,000 to offset everyone else who spent $400 apiece.



    Don't let facts get into the way of your beliefs.
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  • Reply 57 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    You realize that your universe of people that you're comparing my experience to consists of an Apple fan message board, right? You can say 'anyone can come here' but surely you understand that 90% of the people here are fans. **And I'm a fan too**



    You do realize that I'm NOT talking about the people here?



    Quote:

    My experience matches plenty of other people. They just don't happen to come here.



    Very few people I know have ever heard of this site, or any of the rumors sites. Yet, everything I've read, and from people I've spoken to points to exactly the opposite of what you're saying.



    Quote:

    FWIW, my POV is this - I am a PC user, have no interest in using a Mac. I find them pretty annoying in a number of ways. I do have dozens of customers with Macs, so I am very comfortable using them and I service Macs for those people. Hell, I just helped my girlfriend buy a Macbook Air last week. She loves it, but she's very confused with a number of differences with the PC.



    I have to tell you that there are far more annoying PC users out there as a percentage of the PC using population than annoying Mac users are as a percentage of the Mac using population.



    You just don't recognize that fact.



    The concept that someone from the PC world might be somewhat confused upon first using a Mac isn't startling. The same thing occurs in reverse. It's meaningless. A person has to have some degree of commitment when switching from something they know, to something new.



    Quote:

    But I own Apple stock and have for a couple years now, since my customers started asking me in large numbers whether they should get a Mac. Seeing that groundswell of support, I bought the stock, but only recommended Macs to those who could afford them (a small subset of my clients, even though those clients pay me $75 and $90 an hour for computer help) AND (most critically) those who were willing to learn something new.



    I really don't understand what you're trying to point out. If those clients are willing to pay the fees you're charging, which are moderate, but not cheap, then the question of another $500 or $600 for a machine isn't out of the question. If they can't afford that, then they can't afford you either.



    The last part agrees with what I said above. If someone is NOT willing to learn something new, they should stick with whatever they have had first, whether it's a PC or a Mac.



    Quote:

    You'd be surprised how small that group is, even in the DC area where money flows around freely. That's why I know that the 40% number is terribly inflated. I fully believe that it is a desire type reading, but when cold reality sinks in, most people don't have $700 extra to spend on a computer. And no, for a college grad, the home laptop is not going to be the only PC they use. They will have to sit in front of a computer for 8-10 hours every day at work and will come home ready to let their eyes rest. Most people spend VERY little time on their computers at home, but at college they probably spend 50% of their waking hours using one.



    No, you don't *know* that number is inflated, you think it it is.



    Perhaps you would bother to read the links I provided.
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  • Reply 58 of 95
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,717member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    There is a BIG difference between showing off with a $100 pair of sneakers and a $1,800 laptop. Why not drive to school in a big ol' Lexus while your at it too!



    $1,100 laptop.
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  • Reply 59 of 95
    iq78iq78 Posts: 256member
    Wow... Did you get a look at those Dell bars.... Scary for Dell.



    I AM IQ78
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  • Reply 60 of 95
    cameronjcameronj Posts: 2,357member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I have to tell you that there are far more annoying PC users out there as a percentage of the PC using population than annoying Mac users are as a percentage of the Mac using population.



    You just don't recognize that fact.



    I don't recognize that fact? Fact? I didn't see any facts above. Plus, I was not talking about users. I said I don't like using Macs because as a lifelong PC user, I find Macs annoying. Why are you talking about how annoying the users are? I don't think OS of choice has anything to do with how annoying a person is.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    No, you don't *know* that number is inflated, you think it it is.



    Perhaps you would bother to read the links I provided.



    I'm sure the links you provided support what you are saying. All I'm saying is that there's no way that Apple will complete sales to the 40% of college users who said their next computer will be a Mac.



    The reason I see no reason to read your links is because unless your links are made by oracles, they don't have the ability to contradict my point. And I'm glad you're convinced that you have a good feel on the pulse of the PC market with your experience, but it's meaningless to me because I know that my day to day experience tells me far more about what's actually happening than you can.



    I don't come here hoping to talk to fans.
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