Analyst warns of iPhone 2.0's effect on BlackBerry, Palm share

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  • Reply 21 of 33
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:

    It is a dead weight when you have so many more potential new customers that simply refuse to join AT&T- iPhone or no iPhone.



    Well seeing as AT&T's first holiday quarter with the iPhone had record breaking subscriber growth. 2.7 million new subscribers.



    I don't think they are having problems with potential new customers.



    Quote:

    If AT&T wasn't the first choice, Apple may have had to sign a longer deal to get them onboard.



    AT&T wasn't the first choice Verizon was. But I don't believe Apple signed a 5 year deal.
  • Reply 22 of 33
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    ...



    Do you think Apple will make a CDMA version? How many markets outside the US will also benefit from this lateral iPhone model? We know Apple much prefers to have one physical device to rule them all.



    Even though CDMA may not be popular elsewhere in the world, in the US there's a huge market in the CDMA sector. So IMO, a CDMA iPhone seems a given at some point, otherwise the US GSM market becomes saturated and stagnate. As Winterspan points out, AT&T isn't the first choice as a provider for the majority of US cellphone users.
  • Reply 23 of 33
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post


    Even though CDMA may not be popular elsewhere in the world, in the US there's a huge market in the CDMA sector. So IMO, a CDMA iPhone seems a given at some point, otherwise the US GSM market becomes saturated and stagnate. As Winterspan points out, AT&T isn't the first choice as a provider for the majority of US cellphone users.



    The survey's I've seen showed that none of the US providers is really that much better than any of the others. If AT&T rated at 50%, Sprint, Verizon and whoever else might be 48% to 52%.
  • Reply 24 of 33
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post


    The survey's I've seen showed that none of the US providers is really that much better than any of the others. If AT&T rated at 50%, Sprint, Verizon and whoever else might be 48% to 52%.



    hought I'd never go back to Cingular after my previous experience with them, but my desire to consolidate my iPod into my cellphone, a cellphone that synced well and had internet, and my complete lack of desire to have to deal with hacked iPhone brought me back to AT&T. I don't think I'm alone in that.



    I've have excellent service for the past year. Not one complaint. I don't think I'm alone in that either. I wonder if my previous issues with Cingular?and other teclos?were manly catalyzed by the horrible phones I was using.
  • Reply 25 of 33
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    Well seeing as AT&T's first holiday quarter with the iPhone had record breaking subscriber growth. 2.7 million new subscribers.



    I don't think they are having problems with potential new customers.



    AT&T wasn't the first choice Verizon was. But I don't believe Apple signed a 5 year deal.



    No one said AT&T was having problems with new customers. I am NOT talking about those that wish to or are able to switch! I'm talking about the other 50 million.

    Even if CDMA was USA-only, its a HUGE market equivalent to the whole EU, with large disposable incomes, and the majority of the population is still in the dark ages using basic phones. That's about as ripe a possible situation for Apple to exploit with the advanced -- yet easy-to-use -- iPhone.



    BUT, and this is important, contrary to what many people think they know, CDMA/EV-DO is actually used in MANY more countries than just the United States.



    Current subscriber base of 3G CDMA (CDMA2000-EVDO) in the world is 417 MILLION, including 200+ million in Asia, and 130+ million in the Americas.

    OBVIOUSLY, you can see the benefit of a CDMA iPhone.



    http://www.cdg.org/worldwide/cdma_world_subscriber.asp
  • Reply 26 of 33
    slewisslewis Posts: 2,081member
    Null.
  • Reply 27 of 33
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Slewis View Post


    The most recent numbers are from March 2004 which places GSM subscribers at over a billion but there haven't been any new numbers since then, I doubt they dropped though.



    I did find this as well, GSM has 81.3% of the market with W-CDMA adding another 5.6% compared to CDMA's 11.4%.



    I don't think that's a good argument. Just because the GSM subscriber base is over a billion, I don't see that as a reason to ignore the 400M subscriber base for CDMA, that's not a small group of people. I'm pretty sure it would be well worth Apple's time to make a model for those users. The product line doesn't have to be exclusive to one system, there can be two models as many handset makers do, and each model probably sells far less than iPhones. I doubt winterspan is suggesting that the GSM market be ignored.



    Quote:

    Since the global market is much much bigger than the US market, is it worth building a separate CDMA iPhone? I doubt it.



    The page linked showed that there were more CDMA subscribers in Asia than there are in the US.
  • Reply 28 of 33
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Slewis View Post


    ActiveSync, not Exchange



    That is easily confused until it's pointed out.



    Quote:

    A lot of people have said that it's not enterprise worthy without a keyboard... let's just see how that pans out though because from the sound of it, a lot of companies and individual users don't seem to give a damn.



    Agreed.



    Quote:

    There are a lot of people who dislike <insert any carrier here> and despise them, so um, what's new?



    Good point.



    Quote:

    In the US the only other option for a GSM phone is T-Mobile who uses non-standard frequencies, so that means also developing a CDMA phone which is well, not a good idea.



    I hadn't thought of that. They use 1700MHz and 2100MHz for 3G data, right?. So the 1700MHz upstream will make it incompatible in the US unless support for operating band IV is added. Does this mean that an unlocked 3G iPhone will be unable to get 3G speeds on T-Mobile, only EDGE speeds? If so, that is a win for AT&T and we will see even more people move to AT&T since data rate is more important that carrier loyalty, IMO.



    Quote:

    Who was the third party company? I'm interested in looking at their implementation. And yes IBM announced it pre-SDK but how integrated is it? Maybe it's just their own apps instead of having it built into Apple's apps.. or maybe they're working with Apple to license their protocol for syncing with Domino so they can build that into their apps in addition to Exchange support?



    I'm curious about this too. I thought it was Apple's implementation and figured that Sprint may have a battle on their hands for the tech or the trademark. Surprisingly, Visual Voicemail is not trademarked by Apple of anyone. I know that the tech also existed before Apple and am surprised to have seen no lawsuits come across AI.



    Quote:

    GSM Subscriber Stats

    The most recent numbers are from March 2004 which places GSM subscribers at over a billion but there haven't been any new numbers since then, I doubt they dropped though.

    I did find this as well, GSM has 81.3% of the market with W-CDMA adding another 5.6% compared to CDMA's 11.4%. Since the global market is much much bigger than the US market, is it worth building a separate CDMA iPhone? I doubt it.



    I'd say so. While compared to 1.5B(?) GSM based subscribers 400M does seem low, but that is plenty for Apple to make a CDMA version. The R&D, manufacturing, packaging for a CDMA version are all nickel and dime stuff compared to the number of potential customers out there for Apple.



    Even at 1% (though it looks like that an understatement) Apple would still sell 4M. At $400 a unit, not including revenue sharing Apple grosses $1.6B. That is nothing to scoff at.
  • Reply 29 of 33
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I'd say so. While compared to 1.5B(?) GSM based subscribers 400M does seem low, but that is plenty for Apple to make a CDMA version. The R&D, manufacturing, packaging for a CDMA version are all nickel and dime stuff compared to the number of potential customers out there for Apple.



    Even at 1% (though it looks like that an understatement) Apple would still sell 4M. At $400 a unit, not including revenue sharing Apple grosses $1.6B. That is nothing to scoff at.



    Especially when most of the CDMA subscribers are in the first world --- US, Canada, Japan and Korea --- and where most of those cell phone subscribers are on postpaid contract.



    There is like a billion GSM subscribers in the third world --- not really the target audience for the iphone. And the rest of the GSM subscribers are in first world Europe where prepaid is the norm --- not really the iphone business model.
  • Reply 30 of 33
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Slewis View Post


    ActiveSync, not Exchange




    Actually it is called EAS. Exchange Active Sync protocol. We use is exclusively after we replaced our BES servers. (Blackberry Enterprise Server)



    Plain Activesync is what is used to sync pda's and cell phones with a hard cable.



    http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/l...EXCHG.80).aspx





    Requires M$ exchange 2003 with SP2 or above.
  • Reply 31 of 33
    Before everyone predicts the dealt of BB, the iPhone has a lot of work to undergo. I like the phone but I am definitely going without features that I previously had on other smartphones. I want the iPhone to be successful and I would even move up to the 16gb over the 8 because I will add a lot of apps but I am expecting a lot more from the phone than I feel we have... We do not have to be Apple Butt Boys and can speak to the obvious things missing. Apple needs to get back to work on the phone...The job is not over. I want Apple to have strong competition so they do not take us for granted.
  • Reply 32 of 33
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:

    ActiveSync, not Exchange

    That is easily confused until it's pointed out.



    True if you want to parse the conversation into semantics.



    Apple licensed Exchange ActiveSync for syncing mobile device with a computer running MS Exchange server.
  • Reply 33 of 33
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    True if you want to parse the conversation into semantics.



    Apple licensed Exchange ActiveSync for syncing mobile device with a computer running MS Exchange server.



    Doh wrong person to reply. My bad. You are correct. EAS it is.
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