How can it be a miserable quarter if they are turning a profit?
If stockholders become disenchanted with delays or assumed delays based on analyst's stateful predictions of when Apple product are "supposed to be" released then the stock will take a tumble.
That's true, yet I still think that posting a downgrade one day before earnings can have a disasterous affect on a stock. Here's why:
1. Apple is running up in anticipation of earnings. It's not altogether clear whether Apple will move up or down on earnings. It's probably dependent on how much of a beat Apple posts on eanrings. Yet, because Shaw Wu has told us that everyone has high expecatations, when they don't, when Apple reports strong numbers, its going to sell off anyways.
Before today, the consensus was for $1.07 in EPS. The high estimate was for $1.23 by Citi - way higher than any other estimate. Analysts have been generally cautious this quarter. Because of the cautious outlook, Apple is up a mere $5.00 on the quarter. By saying expectations are high, and that earnings might be baked in, it's will create a self-fulfilling prophecy. When Apple reports, the market will think that everyone else thinks that those strong numbers have been baked in, and sell the stock.
Had Shaw Wu said nothing, when Apple reports $1.33 tomorrow, the market might have taken Apple up to $190 thinking that strong earnings wasn't baked in.
Instead, we get a sell-off today, and artificial high expectations. Thus, we'll probably get a sell-off tomorrow as well. This means that Apple, which might be trading at $144 tomorrow, could have been trading at $190 had it not been for Shaw Wu's complete stupidity.
Hmm... I can almost smell a class-action lawsuit brewing!
Most probably the short term speculators are in bed with the analysts.
I mean, does the stock behave according to the company's fundamentals or does it behave according to the speculators?
Time and again, AAPL's behaviour has had nothing to do with Apple's amazing fundamentals, even gone many times against them.
Like past quarter earnings reports when Apple presented amazing record beating numbers and still the analysts decided Apple had not meet "the Street's" ludicrous expectations and the stock plunged to be beaten almost to the ground. Or when it was the next quarter's guidance that was too low - but isn't that just a measure of the state of the nation's economy?
Seen all the last minute new analysts numbers? The many that spent the whole quarter parroting recession and consumer retraction making sure the stock would bottom out, now all of a sudden, at last minute, come up with unrealistically high numbers. The end result - probably their goal - is that, after Apple ends this earnings report, they'll rush off to their phones and blogs screaming Apple disappointed by failing to meet the Street's numbers.
And since many of the Street's players know that it is the 'plat du jour' with AAPL, they wisely decided it was time to sell off and make a profit a day ahead of the earnings report since Thursday they know the analysts will make APPL plunge.
No, it doesn't matter that Apple came out with a huge success that goes by the name of MacBook Air. It doesn't matter that MacBook sales keep surging despite the economy woes [and analysts bear parroting], making AAPL almost recession proof. It doesn't matter that the iPhone is a huge success in terms of demand that a third of the sales went to countries where Apple has no dealings with. It doesn't matter that Apple is still selling more than 3 million iPods a month considering it's reached its product cycle peak. It doesn't matter Apple's unbelievable potential in terms of new products in the pipeline of which the new handheld computing platform isn't the smallest. It doesn't matter the upper hand the renewed Mac OS X with Touch functionality is having against its troubled competition, making for a very strong solid future. It doesn't matter that Apple has positioned itself almost recession proof, betting on making its products as desirable as diamonds in people's minds. Nothing of that matters.
What matters is to manipulate the market and profit twice with AAPL: hype the company before Earnings, sell one day ahead making a $20+/share profit, buy shorts and play the "disapointed" act.
Previously I thought these analysts were on someone's BIG pockets playing the hidden agenda of an Apple competitor or simply prefering to be Apple rather than them who disappoints (forecasting numbers that wouldn't meet Apple's). But now I figure it's much more simplistic, it's really about their own pockets. Maybe through a cousin or a friend or some offshore anonimous investor, there are plenty of ways to achieve such a goal - the temptation is too high.
Should there be an investigation [will never happen in this day and age], they should investigate the surprising many short calls that may have been bought on Tuesday 22 or even Wednesday 23. Those are the culprits of this sick game.
Because this is a vicious game and both Apple and it's long term shareholders lose money out of it, I believe Steve Jobs should not give guidance for the next quarter and stop giving it at all. They will be suckers if they don't.
Friggin' Shaw Wu just upped the rating to Buy now. Gee, no chance he invested the day after he dissed the stock eh? Probably has Sell orders ready for tomorrow.
Man my AAPL investment at $130 is going gangbusters! I actually bought one more share today just because. I feel so Jim Cramer. So, what is everyone's analysis on AAPL now, after earnings, and after the huge gains last week on the Street? Buy, Hold, Sell? What would you set the Stop at? I did $170 as it sounded reasonable and locked in plenty of profit.
Friggin' Shaw Wu just upped the rating to Buy now. Gee, no chance he invested the day after he dissed the stock eh? Probably has Sell orders ready for tomorrow.
Man my AAPL investment at $130 is going gangbusters! I actually bought one more share today just because. I feel so Jim Cramer. So, what is everyone's analysis on AAPL now, after earnings, and after the huge gains last week on the Street? Buy, Hold, Sell? What would you set the Stop at? I did $170 as it sounded reasonable and locked in plenty of profit.
Still at Buy. The iPhone v2.0, 3G, and more countries will explode this year.
Comments
How can it be a miserable quarter if they are turning a profit?
If stockholders become disenchanted with delays or assumed delays based on analyst's stateful predictions of when Apple product are "supposed to be" released then the stock will take a tumble.
That's true, yet I still think that posting a downgrade one day before earnings can have a disasterous affect on a stock. Here's why:
1. Apple is running up in anticipation of earnings. It's not altogether clear whether Apple will move up or down on earnings. It's probably dependent on how much of a beat Apple posts on eanrings. Yet, because Shaw Wu has told us that everyone has high expecatations, when they don't, when Apple reports strong numbers, its going to sell off anyways.
Before today, the consensus was for $1.07 in EPS. The high estimate was for $1.23 by Citi - way higher than any other estimate. Analysts have been generally cautious this quarter. Because of the cautious outlook, Apple is up a mere $5.00 on the quarter. By saying expectations are high, and that earnings might be baked in, it's will create a self-fulfilling prophecy. When Apple reports, the market will think that everyone else thinks that those strong numbers have been baked in, and sell the stock.
Had Shaw Wu said nothing, when Apple reports $1.33 tomorrow, the market might have taken Apple up to $190 thinking that strong earnings wasn't baked in.
Instead, we get a sell-off today, and artificial high expectations. Thus, we'll probably get a sell-off tomorrow as well. This means that Apple, which might be trading at $144 tomorrow, could have been trading at $190 had it not been for Shaw Wu's complete stupidity.
Hmm... I can almost smell a class-action lawsuit brewing!
Its getting more and more obvious that these people are manipulating the market for the most profitable reason of making profits.
It is getting kinda silly now.
I mean, does the stock behave according to the company's fundamentals or does it behave according to the speculators?
Time and again, AAPL's behaviour has had nothing to do with Apple's amazing fundamentals, even gone many times against them.
Like past quarter earnings reports when Apple presented amazing record beating numbers and still the analysts decided Apple had not meet "the Street's" ludicrous expectations and the stock plunged to be beaten almost to the ground. Or when it was the next quarter's guidance that was too low - but isn't that just a measure of the state of the nation's economy?
Seen all the last minute new analysts numbers? The many that spent the whole quarter parroting recession and consumer retraction making sure the stock would bottom out, now all of a sudden, at last minute, come up with unrealistically high numbers. The end result - probably their goal - is that, after Apple ends this earnings report, they'll rush off to their phones and blogs screaming Apple disappointed by failing to meet the Street's numbers.
And since many of the Street's players know that it is the 'plat du jour' with AAPL, they wisely decided it was time to sell off and make a profit a day ahead of the earnings report since Thursday they know the analysts will make APPL plunge.
No, it doesn't matter that Apple came out with a huge success that goes by the name of MacBook Air. It doesn't matter that MacBook sales keep surging despite the economy woes [and analysts bear parroting], making AAPL almost recession proof. It doesn't matter that the iPhone is a huge success in terms of demand that a third of the sales went to countries where Apple has no dealings with. It doesn't matter that Apple is still selling more than 3 million iPods a month considering it's reached its product cycle peak. It doesn't matter Apple's unbelievable potential in terms of new products in the pipeline of which the new handheld computing platform isn't the smallest. It doesn't matter the upper hand the renewed Mac OS X with Touch functionality is having against its troubled competition, making for a very strong solid future. It doesn't matter that Apple has positioned itself almost recession proof, betting on making its products as desirable as diamonds in people's minds. Nothing of that matters.
What matters is to manipulate the market and profit twice with AAPL: hype the company before Earnings, sell one day ahead making a $20+/share profit, buy shorts and play the "disapointed" act.
Previously I thought these analysts were on someone's BIG pockets playing the hidden agenda of an Apple competitor or simply prefering to be Apple rather than them who disappoints (forecasting numbers that wouldn't meet Apple's). But now I figure it's much more simplistic, it's really about their own pockets. Maybe through a cousin or a friend or some offshore anonimous investor, there are plenty of ways to achieve such a goal - the temptation is too high.
Should there be an investigation [will never happen in this day and age], they should investigate the surprising many short calls that may have been bought on Tuesday 22 or even Wednesday 23. Those are the culprits of this sick game.
Because this is a vicious game and both Apple and it's long term shareholders lose money out of it, I believe Steve Jobs should not give guidance for the next quarter and stop giving it at all. They will be suckers if they don't.
Just leave them in the dark, Steve!
Man my AAPL investment at $130 is going gangbusters! I actually bought one more share today just because. I feel so Jim Cramer. So, what is everyone's analysis on AAPL now, after earnings, and after the huge gains last week on the Street? Buy, Hold, Sell? What would you set the Stop at? I did $170 as it sounded reasonable and locked in plenty of profit.
Friggin' Shaw Wu just upped the rating to Buy now. Gee, no chance he invested the day after he dissed the stock eh? Probably has Sell orders ready for tomorrow.
Man my AAPL investment at $130 is going gangbusters! I actually bought one more share today just because. I feel so Jim Cramer. So, what is everyone's analysis on AAPL now, after earnings, and after the huge gains last week on the Street? Buy, Hold, Sell? What would you set the Stop at? I did $170 as it sounded reasonable and locked in plenty of profit.
Still at Buy. The iPhone v2.0, 3G, and more countries will explode this year.