I sold a large chunk of stock at $199.98 last year and have an order to sell at 199.98 now. But that just covers margin costs and such. Still keeping about 90 percent waiting for long term gains to ripen in Oct. or Dec, then maybe cash in . Maybe wait till it hits 600 before I sell it all . Bought most of it at $25.51, but have bought and sold all of it more than once in the last 4 years . Was all cash February 2007. Probably be all cash next February waitin for the big dip on the 28th like each year when it happens , then buy back in .
Less than two weeks after cutting his rating on Apple shares to Neutral, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu on Monday said he's taking a step-back, reinstating his Buy rating, and revisiting his long-term thesis for the multi-faceted electronics maker.
"We overestimated the potential negative reaction on the quarter and in hindsight should have moderated our near-term posture rather than downgrading," the analyst conceded in a note to clients. "While Apple shares will likely remain volatile and may offer a better entry point, we need to align our rating with our longer term view on fundamentals."
It must be nice to have a job where your presumptions and analytical advice doesn't come to fruition and yet you still get paid!
Wu just moved from macroeconomic pessimism to macro optimism. My fear is that he is overly optimistic... but I am really at a loss at this point in time: I know that Apple has great products, faithful fans, and solid history. I know that the 3G iPhone will be a big hit. I know that Mac sales will continue to grow for another few quarters at a minimum. I'm not terribly concerned about iPod sales slipping significantly.
What I don't know is how Apple will sell as sufficiently meaningful number of iPhones, at a meaningful profit, to offset a decline in iPhone sales. Since the iPod sales aren't deferred (like the iPhone), they need at least 2-4x more revenue from iPhone sales to have the same profit in a given quarter.
I'm also starting to become skiddish about the general economy again-- like I was as things approached the bottom in March. Anybody outside the US have a balanced perspective about how things are in Europe or Asia right now-- signs of pressure on consumer spending to come?
It is just hard for me to imagine Apple passing the 210 mark now...
Shaw Wu has been around a while, so we can't give him the benefit of the doubt about not knowing how Apple stock works. Also, we all know that he is among a handful of analysts who have the power to move Apple's share price meaningfully.
It just doesn't make sense that such a seasoned Apple analyst could sway so dramatically about Apple's business prospects.
It would be interesting to know what communications he had just prior to his downgrade a few weeks ago and before his upgrade today. Did he speak to brokers, clients? If an influential analyst gives you heads-ups before he releases pronouncements, you could make a lot of money on buying low and selling high and making puts and calls.
I'm sure Bush's SEC won't investigate this, but the integrity of the market requires the regulators keeping it fair.
I disagree with your analysis. His cut was actually pretty logical.
In January, they announced a great quarter, were incredibly bullish in all areas of the business but the specific underlying numbers of the going forward outlook were conservative, which is typical of Apple. The stock fell off a cliff, before bottoming out around $119.
In this last earnings call, they announced a great quarter, were incredibly bullish in all areas of the business but the specific underlying numbers of the going forward outlook were conservative, which AGAIN is typical of Apple. The stock fell off nominally after hours but this time, the market decided that Apple is being conservative not pessimistic and the stock ran up.
Same basic presentation, two different outcomes. My personal bias is that at best an analysts can give you macro picture on the business and micro picture on the moving parts that shape the macro picture. They are horrifically bad market timers, as most of us are. ;-)
It may suck that they impact the market as much as they do, and it may force head scratching on how much they get paid, but they are ANALYSTS not fortune tellers or prognosticators.
I may be naive in this regard but I actually appreciated the correction, and assume that he assumed that based on same data, stock would blow up and then he would upgrade. He would have looked like a hero then based on exact same data.
Same basic presentation, two different outcomes. My personal bias is that at best an analysts can give you macro picture on the business and micro picture on the moving parts that shape the macro picture. They are horrifically bad market timers, as most of us are. ;-)
But if you read Wu's excuse in today's statement, it sounds like he was trying to time the market!
I do agree that analysts are horrifically bad market timers, though...
Many of us own Apple stock, I trust this site more than any other or ANY analyst for accurate AAPL speculation.
You should be trusting the readers of this site more since it was a reader of this site that most accurately predict Apple's earnings results this quarter (by far the best call):
Wow, Shaw must have read my opinion piece at MacDailyNews, ridiculing his inability to understand Deferred Revenues, and why he was underestimating Apple's earnings. He though Apple's Deferred Revs were "somewhat confusing and is unprecedented", as quoted in Elmer-Dewitt's Fortune blog. How is that possible that an analyst can't understand Deferred Revenues?
Here's the link to what I wrote, right after Apple's earnings:
I assume it will find its proper value in the coming months.
Phil Schiller sold his shares on a pre-arranged trading plan, this means that regardless of whether Apple shares go up or down, he sells some fixed value of stock or fixed number of shares on a time table to diversify his personal wealth.
This has no bearing on the view of Apple going forward. Apple will rise to 201 by mid-September and do a stock split at that level. If everything goes to plan with their launches in the summer and fall, the share will trade in a post-split range of 90-110. Mac share will continue driving the business. The big dark cloud is expanding iPod reach around the globe and beating competitors who come out with lower cost non-video iPods in markets where iTunes doesn't have traction.
Comments
Less than two weeks after cutting his rating on Apple shares to Neutral, American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu on Monday said he's taking a step-back, reinstating his Buy rating, and revisiting his long-term thesis for the multi-faceted electronics maker.
"We overestimated the potential negative reaction on the quarter and in hindsight should have moderated our near-term posture rather than downgrading," the analyst conceded in a note to clients. "While Apple shares will likely remain volatile and may offer a better entry point, we need to align our rating with our longer term view on fundamentals."
It must be nice to have a job where your presumptions and analytical advice doesn't come to fruition and yet you still get paid!
What I don't know is how Apple will sell as sufficiently meaningful number of iPhones, at a meaningful profit, to offset a decline in iPhone sales. Since the iPod sales aren't deferred (like the iPhone), they need at least 2-4x more revenue from iPhone sales to have the same profit in a given quarter.
I'm also starting to become skiddish about the general economy again-- like I was as things approached the bottom in March. Anybody outside the US have a balanced perspective about how things are in Europe or Asia right now-- signs of pressure on consumer spending to come?
It is just hard for me to imagine Apple passing the 210 mark now...
With gas a >$4 a gallon I am sure people will run right out and buy electronics they don't need.
This does not look good.
Shaw Wu has been around a while, so we can't give him the benefit of the doubt about not knowing how Apple stock works. Also, we all know that he is among a handful of analysts who have the power to move Apple's share price meaningfully.
It just doesn't make sense that such a seasoned Apple analyst could sway so dramatically about Apple's business prospects.
It would be interesting to know what communications he had just prior to his downgrade a few weeks ago and before his upgrade today. Did he speak to brokers, clients? If an influential analyst gives you heads-ups before he releases pronouncements, you could make a lot of money on buying low and selling high and making puts and calls.
I'm sure Bush's SEC won't investigate this, but the integrity of the market requires the regulators keeping it fair.
I disagree with your analysis. His cut was actually pretty logical.
In January, they announced a great quarter, were incredibly bullish in all areas of the business but the specific underlying numbers of the going forward outlook were conservative, which is typical of Apple. The stock fell off a cliff, before bottoming out around $119.
In this last earnings call, they announced a great quarter, were incredibly bullish in all areas of the business but the specific underlying numbers of the going forward outlook were conservative, which AGAIN is typical of Apple. The stock fell off nominally after hours but this time, the market decided that Apple is being conservative not pessimistic and the stock ran up.
Same basic presentation, two different outcomes. My personal bias is that at best an analysts can give you macro picture on the business and micro picture on the moving parts that shape the macro picture. They are horrifically bad market timers, as most of us are. ;-)
It may suck that they impact the market as much as they do, and it may force head scratching on how much they get paid, but they are ANALYSTS not fortune tellers or prognosticators.
I may be naive in this regard but I actually appreciated the correction, and assume that he assumed that based on same data, stock would blow up and then he would upgrade. He would have looked like a hero then based on exact same data.
Mark
Wow, none of you guys should be talking about the stock market. Take an econ class then speculate.
I REALLY hope that's not an endorsement of Wu's actions.
Wow, none of you guys should be talking about the stock market. Take an econ class then speculate.
or become an analyst...
Same basic presentation, two different outcomes. My personal bias is that at best an analysts can give you macro picture on the business and micro picture on the moving parts that shape the macro picture. They are horrifically bad market timers, as most of us are. ;-)
But if you read Wu's excuse in today's statement, it sounds like he was trying to time the market!
I do agree that analysts are horrifically bad market timers, though...
Wow, none of you guys should be talking about the stock market. Take an econ class then speculate.
Many of us own Apple stock, I trust this site more than any other or ANY analyst for accurate AAPL speculation.
Many of us own Apple stock, I trust this site more than any other or ANY analyst for accurate AAPL speculation.
You should be trusting the readers of this site more since it was a reader of this site that most accurately predict Apple's earnings results this quarter (by far the best call):
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...threadid=86459
"We think calendar year 2009 earnings is more likely closer to $7.50-8.00 than the $6.59 consensus estimate."
[ View this article at AppleInsider.com ]
Wow, Shaw must have read my opinion piece at MacDailyNews, ridiculing his inability to understand Deferred Revenues, and why he was underestimating Apple's earnings. He though Apple's Deferred Revs were "somewhat confusing and is unprecedented", as quoted in Elmer-Dewitt's Fortune blog. How is that possible that an analyst can't understand Deferred Revenues?
Here's the link to what I wrote, right after Apple's earnings:
http://macdailynews.com/index.php/we...17105/opinion/
Yes, or so a Senior Apple Vice President thinks:
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/...ap4960808.html
Have we seen the peak of Apple stock price?
I assume it will find its proper value in the coming months.
Phil Schiller sold his shares on a pre-arranged trading plan, this means that regardless of whether Apple shares go up or down, he sells some fixed value of stock or fixed number of shares on a time table to diversify his personal wealth.
This has no bearing on the view of Apple going forward. Apple will rise to 201 by mid-September and do a stock split at that level. If everything goes to plan with their launches in the summer and fall, the share will trade in a post-split range of 90-110. Mac share will continue driving the business. The big dark cloud is expanding iPod reach around the globe and beating competitors who come out with lower cost non-video iPods in markets where iTunes doesn't have traction.