Next thing I'll hear is that WS will have 14 million as the whisper number and if Apple doesn't make this mark, investors are going to be disappointed.
That sounds about right.
Quote:
I'm still trying to figure out what is going to be the killer app that drives iPhone sales.
Besides the Exchange Support, I think it's the app that connects to the App Store.
According to Scott Bourne on MacBreak Weekly Podcast, there's a new IM Chat app that is Twitter like.
Jim Cramer from the Street.com says an app called 'Conversation' that is going to bring Apple to the forefront of instant messaging.
I wouldn't use Cramer as a source for technical fortune telling. I've heard this app called Conversation before, I think it was from Apple.
the SDK keynote highlighted an AIM app for the iPhone and we've had a patent show up recently so I expect an Apple version covering the main IM clients come v2.0. This may also include a Twitter or Twitter-like social networking aspect to this app, but I don't see Twitter's multicast social networking the app.
The revision comes from a newfound belief that Apple might alter its existing sales strategy to accommodate both carriers and users: where the company has insisted on a fixed price and revenue sharing, it may loosen its restrictions after encountering resistance to its present approach in some areas.
The company "may be planning to allow subsidized pricing, diminishing carrier exclusivity... and supporting global unlocked iphone sales," Abramsky claims, explaining that Apple could also reduce the revenue it shares from monthly plans or even drop the split entirely to secure some carriers' support.
Such a move could lift iPhone sales momentum by as much as 50 or 100 percent, he adds. An official backing of unlocked devices through sales in Apple retail stores and certain carriers could improve international sales by two to three times, according to the prediction.
Should it all come true, then Apple could become a normal company which goes out to maximize its market share. What a change from inflated prices and the rumored ATT revenue sharing agreement.
Let's hope for the best. The oracle has seen the light...
Is there any place else that Apple is selling to that uses CDMA? If so then maybe just maybe there will be a world phone that has both CDMA and GSM.
If so then iPhones on Verizon is a given since they will allow any phone on there networks soon. The open question would be the cost of a data plan although they would have to be competitive with AT&T.
CDMA is dead, people are taking down their CDMA networks. Apple would never make a combination phone because their is no market and it would be bulky and expensive.
CDMA is dead, people are taking down their CDMA networks. Apple would never make a combination phone because their is no market and it would be bulky and expensive.
CDMA is dead? Wow, news to me. CDMA is still #1 in the US, it's important in Korea, and there's over 430 million CDMA users worldwide. Yes, GSM is much more popular overseas, but even still, CDMA has far more worldwide marketshare in wireless than Apple does in computers.
Technically, both CDMA and GSM will be dead in a few years. Most carriers will likely move to LTE, an OFDM-based technology. For example, in the US, both Verizon (CDMA) and ATT (GSM) have already announced plans to do so.
WiMax will be somewhere in the mix too, but one of its big champions in the US (Sprint) has fallen on very hard times of late...
TBaggins seems to think the fact that Apple is coming out with a 3G iPhone is evidence that Apple made a mistake with the original iPhone.
Nah, not so much. 2.5G and single-carrier exclusive has been 'good enough' (in the Microsoft sense of the term) for the US launch, though we will see one awesome spike in sales both here and in Europe when the 3G model launches, and I bet Apple now wishes the exclusivity period with ATT was shorter.
Though I do have to wonder if US sales are quite as strong as we all like to think... after all, ATT reported that only 900k iPhones were activated on its network in Q4 '07, out of 2.3 million sold. Just how many iPhones are bought here only to be shipped out of country, unlocked, and with no Apple-carrier revenue-sharing agreement? \
But the obvious error was essentially repeating the US launch in Europe (2.5G US model offered, single-carrier in each nation), as sales have born out. And the limited feature set continues to be a bummer. The new iPhone and 2.0 software can't arrive soon enough.
Much of the defense of Apple's iPhone launch was for the short term. I doubt anyone thought Apple would or should continue this policy for the long term.
Oh, you're kidding. Revisionist history aside, many people swallowed the at-the-time Apple party line regarding 3G, 3G vs WiFi, feature sets, and the single-carrier exclusive biz model hook, line, and sinker... including yourself, for a time. And you still see people even now claiming 3G is unnecessary, the current iPhone feature set is "fine", single-carrier is good, etc. etc. Doesn't sound like a short-term strategy to me if some still think it's the way to go even these days.
Oh, you're kidding. Revisionist history aside, many people swallowed the at-the-time Apple party line regarding 3G, 3G vs WiFi, feature sets, and the single-carrier exclusive biz model hook, line, and sinker... including yourself, for a time. And you still see people even now claiming 3G is unnecessary, the current iPhone feature set is "fine", single-carrier is good, etc. etc. Doesn't sound like a short-term strategy to me if some still think it's the way to go even these days.
Its not revisionist history. You have selective memory.
I said from the beginning and restated repeatedly. That I could understand Apple partnering with carriers in the beginning. But I doubt Apple would continue these partnership indefinitely.
Very likely that we see a new deal with AT&T - one where you can get a cheap/free iPhone from AT&T with a 2-year contract, or you can get a full price phone from Apple, that you can use on any network.
I also think Apple will likely forego the revenue sharing agreement with AT&T in exchange for allowing unlocked phones.
This could be a win-win for AT&T, Apple, customers, and even other phone companies. But the biggest winner would be Apple, because of the tremendous increase in market share that this would mean.
Apple has been targetting 1% of global cell phone marketshare in 2008. I think considering the pent up demand globally, their year end sales figure will only be a function of how fast they can ship the phones out - I bet that Apple cant make these phones fast enough.
On the iPhone vs the Blackberry - I think Blackberry will have to dramatically up its game in the next 6 months, or else they are dead. If Apple launches the phone with multiple form-factors, including some with QWERTY keyboard, and clamshell, then Blackberry would be dead no matter what they do.
Its not revisionist history. You have selective memory.
I said from the beginning and restated repeatedly. That I could understand Apple partnering with carriers in the beginning. But I doubt Apple would continue these partnership indefinitely.
C'mon Teno, even you yourself have admitted that your mind has changed a bit on some things. It's not a weakness... being able to modify your PoV when confronted with new data is a strength, not a weakness.
I am, however, glad that you're not saying that Apple can go two years without 3G anymore. It would be a very bad idea in Europe and Asia, and eventually in the US as well.
Oh, and it is certainly revisionist to say that the party line back at the US launch was that 2.5G, limited features, and single-carrier was good only as an initial US launch thing. Many ppl seemed quite convinced otherwise, some still are.
Or were you unconscious for the entire 2.5G vs 3G, limited features vs more features debate for the Euro launch?
Opening up iPhone SDK might seem like a iPhone only issue at the moment. However, there is another important aspect - this is the FIRST time in years that there will be significant development community interest in anything Apple. And quite a bit of those developers will be business developers - building enterprise applications for the iPhone. I dont think anyone understands how profoundly this can impact the entire Apple ecosystem. This should be the catalyst that finally propels Mac marketshare to double digits and even higher.
The PC market is about 70 million units a year, with Windows having about 90% market share, or about 63 million units. Mac had just 3% market share, so it was insignificant. But if you consider that the iPod Touch, AppleTV, iPhone are all MacOS at the end of the day, and apps written for one should run on any platform, MacOS market share would become very significant. For this purpose, we can ignore Windows Mobile, as it is quite unsuccessful in the market. If Apple can hit 5% of global phone sales with the iPhone, MacOS would be close to, or possibly even more than Windows, in terms of overall installations.
And then the only thing Apple needs to do, would be to convert the MacMini platform into the CarMac, for installation in Automobiles. I can imagine Steve Jobs in his black turtleneck deriding the entire Auto entertainment industry as belonging to the last century, and unveiling a sleek black CarMac - with solid state memory for instant reboot, a built in retractable multi-touch touchscreen, offering not just entertainment, but also other functionality like navigation, reverse cameras, bluetooth phone support, car readouts, etc - that are now found only in the premium segment.
Ah -- the world is there to be conquered, Steve -- all you have to do, is to desire to conquer it!
And then the only thing Apple needs to do, would be to convert the MacMini platform into the CarMac, for installation in Automobiles. I can imagine Steve Jobs in his black turtleneck deriding the entire Auto entertainment industry as belonging to the last century, and unveiling a sleek black CarMac - with solid state memory for instant reboot, a built in retractable multi-touch touchscreen, offering not just entertainment, but also other functionality like navigation, reverse cameras, bluetooth phone support, car readouts, etc - that are now found only in the premium segment.
Ah -- the world is there to be conquered, Steve -- all you have to do, is to desire to conquer it!
Dude that is a crazy idea. Who in the world would want a mac in their car?
In other news I am currently drawing up plans to install an upgraded mini and 3 lcd panels in my mini van. I am tired of using portable dvd players and portable gps units etc when I can have an all in one solution.
But hey, two years is 'multi-year', isn't it? Not that this sort of language is to be trusted in any case.
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In that case, 13 months could be considered multi-year as it spans more than one year. Hell, even 367 days could satisfy that requirement (366 in a non-leap year year)...
Comments
Next thing I'll hear is that WS will have 14 million as the whisper number and if Apple doesn't make this mark, investors are going to be disappointed.
That sounds about right.
I'm still trying to figure out what is going to be the killer app that drives iPhone sales.
Besides the Exchange Support, I think it's the app that connects to the App Store.
Besides the Exchange Support, I think it's the app that connects to the App Store.
According to Scott Bourne on MacBreak Weekly Podcast, there's a new IM Chat app that is Twitter like.
Jim Cramer from the Street.com says an app called 'Conversation' that is going to bring Apple to the forefront of instant messaging.
According to Scott Bourne on MacBreak Weekly Podcast, there's a new IM Chat app that is Twitter like.
Jim Cramer from the Street.com says an app called 'Conversation' that is going to bring Apple to the forefront of instant messaging.
I wouldn't use Cramer as a source for technical fortune telling. I've heard this app called Conversation before, I think it was from Apple.
the SDK keynote highlighted an AIM app for the iPhone and we've had a patent show up recently so I expect an Apple version covering the main IM clients come v2.0. This may also include a Twitter or Twitter-like social networking aspect to this app, but I don't see Twitter's multicast social networking the app.
edit: http://forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=473818
The revision comes from a newfound belief that Apple might alter its existing sales strategy to accommodate both carriers and users: where the company has insisted on a fixed price and revenue sharing, it may loosen its restrictions after encountering resistance to its present approach in some areas.
The company "may be planning to allow subsidized pricing, diminishing carrier exclusivity... and supporting global unlocked iphone sales," Abramsky claims, explaining that Apple could also reduce the revenue it shares from monthly plans or even drop the split entirely to secure some carriers' support.
Such a move could lift iPhone sales momentum by as much as 50 or 100 percent, he adds. An official backing of unlocked devices through sales in Apple retail stores and certain carriers could improve international sales by two to three times, according to the prediction.
Should it all come true, then Apple could become a normal company which goes out to maximize its market share. What a change from inflated prices and the rumored ATT revenue sharing agreement.
Let's hope for the best. The oracle has seen the light...
Is there any place else that Apple is selling to that uses CDMA? If so then maybe just maybe there will be a world phone that has both CDMA and GSM.
If so then iPhones on Verizon is a given since they will allow any phone on there networks soon. The open question would be the cost of a data plan although they would have to be competitive with AT&T.
CDMA is dead, people are taking down their CDMA networks. Apple would never make a combination phone because their is no market and it would be bulky and expensive.
CDMA is dead, people are taking down their CDMA networks. Apple would never make a combination phone because their is no market and it would be bulky and expensive.
CDMA is dead? Wow, news to me. CDMA is still #1 in the US, it's important in Korea, and there's over 430 million CDMA users worldwide. Yes, GSM is much more popular overseas, but even still, CDMA has far more worldwide marketshare in wireless than Apple does in computers.
Technically, both CDMA and GSM will be dead in a few years. Most carriers will likely move to LTE, an OFDM-based technology. For example, in the US, both Verizon (CDMA) and ATT (GSM) have already announced plans to do so.
WiMax will be somewhere in the mix too, but one of its big champions in the US (Sprint) has fallen on very hard times of late...
.
TBaggins seems to think the fact that Apple is coming out with a 3G iPhone is evidence that Apple made a mistake with the original iPhone.
Nah, not so much. 2.5G and single-carrier exclusive has been 'good enough' (in the Microsoft sense of the term) for the US launch, though we will see one awesome spike in sales both here and in Europe when the 3G model launches, and I bet Apple now wishes the exclusivity period with ATT was shorter.
Though I do have to wonder if US sales are quite as strong as we all like to think... after all, ATT reported that only 900k iPhones were activated on its network in Q4 '07, out of 2.3 million sold. Just how many iPhones are bought here only to be shipped out of country, unlocked, and with no Apple-carrier revenue-sharing agreement?
But the obvious error was essentially repeating the US launch in Europe (2.5G US model offered, single-carrier in each nation), as sales have born out. And the limited feature set continues to be a bummer. The new iPhone and 2.0 software can't arrive soon enough.
/me happy that June and WWDC are almost here
.
Much of the defense of Apple's iPhone launch was for the short term. I doubt anyone thought Apple would or should continue this policy for the long term.
Oh, you're kidding. Revisionist history aside, many people swallowed the at-the-time Apple party line regarding 3G, 3G vs WiFi, feature sets, and the single-carrier exclusive biz model hook, line, and sinker... including yourself, for a time. And you still see people even now claiming 3G is unnecessary, the current iPhone feature set is "fine", single-carrier is good, etc. etc. Doesn't sound like a short-term strategy to me if some still think it's the way to go even these days.
But I am happy that you've come around.
.
Oh, you're kidding. Revisionist history aside, many people swallowed the at-the-time Apple party line regarding 3G, 3G vs WiFi, feature sets, and the single-carrier exclusive biz model hook, line, and sinker... including yourself, for a time. And you still see people even now claiming 3G is unnecessary, the current iPhone feature set is "fine", single-carrier is good, etc. etc. Doesn't sound like a short-term strategy to me if some still think it's the way to go even these days.
Its not revisionist history. You have selective memory.
I said from the beginning and restated repeatedly. That I could understand Apple partnering with carriers in the beginning. But I doubt Apple would continue these partnership indefinitely.
I also think Apple will likely forego the revenue sharing agreement with AT&T in exchange for allowing unlocked phones.
This could be a win-win for AT&T, Apple, customers, and even other phone companies. But the biggest winner would be Apple, because of the tremendous increase in market share that this would mean.
Apple has been targetting 1% of global cell phone marketshare in 2008. I think considering the pent up demand globally, their year end sales figure will only be a function of how fast they can ship the phones out - I bet that Apple cant make these phones fast enough.
On the iPhone vs the Blackberry - I think Blackberry will have to dramatically up its game in the next 6 months, or else they are dead. If Apple launches the phone with multiple form-factors, including some with QWERTY keyboard, and clamshell, then Blackberry would be dead no matter what they do.
Its not revisionist history. You have selective memory.
I said from the beginning and restated repeatedly. That I could understand Apple partnering with carriers in the beginning. But I doubt Apple would continue these partnership indefinitely.
C'mon Teno, even you yourself have admitted that your mind has changed a bit on some things. It's not a weakness... being able to modify your PoV when confronted with new data is a strength, not a weakness.
I am, however, glad that you're not saying that Apple can go two years without 3G anymore. It would be a very bad idea in Europe and Asia, and eventually in the US as well.
Oh, and it is certainly revisionist to say that the party line back at the US launch was that 2.5G, limited features, and single-carrier was good only as an initial US launch thing. Many ppl seemed quite convinced otherwise, some still are.
Or were you unconscious for the entire 2.5G vs 3G, limited features vs more features debate for the Euro launch?
.
The PC market is about 70 million units a year, with Windows having about 90% market share, or about 63 million units. Mac had just 3% market share, so it was insignificant. But if you consider that the iPod Touch, AppleTV, iPhone are all MacOS at the end of the day, and apps written for one should run on any platform, MacOS market share would become very significant. For this purpose, we can ignore Windows Mobile, as it is quite unsuccessful in the market. If Apple can hit 5% of global phone sales with the iPhone, MacOS would be close to, or possibly even more than Windows, in terms of overall installations.
And then the only thing Apple needs to do, would be to convert the MacMini platform into the CarMac, for installation in Automobiles. I can imagine Steve Jobs in his black turtleneck deriding the entire Auto entertainment industry as belonging to the last century, and unveiling a sleek black CarMac - with solid state memory for instant reboot, a built in retractable multi-touch touchscreen, offering not just entertainment, but also other functionality like navigation, reverse cameras, bluetooth phone support, car readouts, etc - that are now found only in the premium segment.
Ah -- the world is there to be conquered, Steve -- all you have to do, is to desire to conquer it!
And then the only thing Apple needs to do, would be to convert the MacMini platform into the CarMac, for installation in Automobiles. I can imagine Steve Jobs in his black turtleneck deriding the entire Auto entertainment industry as belonging to the last century, and unveiling a sleek black CarMac - with solid state memory for instant reboot, a built in retractable multi-touch touchscreen, offering not just entertainment, but also other functionality like navigation, reverse cameras, bluetooth phone support, car readouts, etc - that are now found only in the premium segment.
Ah -- the world is there to be conquered, Steve -- all you have to do, is to desire to conquer it!
Dude that is a crazy idea. Who in the world would want a mac in their car?
In other news I am currently drawing up plans to install an upgraded mini and 3 lcd panels in my mini van. I am tired of using portable dvd players and portable gps units etc when I can have an all in one solution.
Jim
But hey, two years is 'multi-year', isn't it? Not that this sort of language is to be trusted in any case.
.
In that case, 13 months could be considered multi-year as it spans more than one year. Hell, even 367 days could satisfy that requirement (366 in a non-leap year year)...
The strategy has worked as Apple has earned over a billion in deferred revenue in less than a year.
Deferred revenue is just an accounting sideshow --- Apple could have booked every single cent in their current quarters.