If they offered a Mac Tablet with UMTS that would rock and I can see the mobile carrier's selling that, but I don't think it's going to happen...
Ah. I wonder what the "one more thing" in MacWorld SF Jan 2009 will be? One can only hope. Well, I'm hoping it's the Mac Touch with 3G and Wifi ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism
As for the number of outlets selling the iPhone worldwide, I wonder what that count will be. Over 50,000?
In 2004/05, O2 UK had 235 stores. By now, let's say 300-500 stores in the UK as "O2 Retail" branded. Carphone Warehouse has 1,700 across Europe, with many of them in the UK, I believe. Apple, Inc. and Apple Resellers have about 20-50 stores in the UK.
On a low estimate, let's say each country has about 500 stores selling the iPhone. The July launch has almost 25 countries. Very roughly, an average of 500 outlets per country, that's 12,500 outlets where you can buy an iPhone in July.
By the end of the year, say about 70 countries in total, let's drop the average to 450 outlets per country, that would be... 31,500.
Since India is included and let's say they go in big, there could be 1,000 outlets in India alone.
Let's say the lowball figure is 25,000 outlets by the end of the year and highball at 50,000 by the end of year.
On the low estimate, If each outlet sells 100 iPhone 3G each by the end of the year, that's 2,500,000. 2.5 million iPhones. If each outlet sells 250 phones, on the low estimate, that's 6.25 million phones.
On a high estimate of 50,000 outlets around the world, each selling on average 250 phones during the whole of the 2nd half of 2008, that means... 12.5 million phones.
My interest here is not to push up the stock price like the analysts ... I am interested in retail operations though, so it *is* interesting to note that the model we are looking at is (very) roughly, at a high estimate, 50,000 outlets around the world in the 2nd half of 2008, each selling on average 250 iPhones = 12.5 million iPhones.
Some people may say, 50,000 is a very high number, 250 each store for 1 to 6 months is pretty low. Remember this average takes into account everything, Apple Stores, telco, "online", etc. etc.
So let's say 30,000 outlets globally, 500 units sold each store on average = 15 million iPhones sold in 2nd half of calendar 2008.
What do you all think? I'm sure proper scientists and retail specialists have got this all modelled out and worked out because Apple is going to have to figure out (or already have figured out) how to make and move 15 million iPhone 3Gs out the door in over 70 countries by Christmas 2008. There are certainly downside risks with such a big operation like this, but, they've done it before with the iPod.
And tech support and training for all these mostly new-to-Apple customers?
Since India is included and let's say they go in big, there could be 1,000 outlets in India alone.
I based my estimate on autorized retailers. While that is available in the US, as far as I know, I think it would have to be in other countries like Brazil and India where their are probably a 1000 just in Delhi.
I based my estimate on autorized retailers. While that is available in the US, as far as I know, I think it would have to be in other countries like Brazil and India where their are probably a 1000 just in Delhi.
Yeah. The tricky bit here, is that if there are a 1000 authorized resellers in Delhi alone, how much stock would each have between now and the end of the year? On average? How the heck is Apple going to figure that out? Must be some smart people there at the ol' Apple HQ.
Wow, can someone please give this analyst an Adam Smith Award for Most Insight?
Read that sentence again. What amazing insight. People, what he is saying here is that when prices go down, it has the effect of {drum roll, please} making sales go up.
FAAAAATHUUUUUUUUUUUUUUMMMMMMMMM! {That was the sound of my brain falling on the ground}
This guy gets paid to say these things. He should get paid way more than he's getting right now. I mean, with insight such as this it's no wonder we're all just a bunch of idiots following supremely intelligent people such as this guy.
Yeah, the analysts need to start factoring other stuff in, such as, clearly the limitations are how many iPhones Apple can *actually* make, finance operations required to make, market, and of course, all the distribution to consumers. This would be the "beef" of any analysis on predicted iPhone sales figures going into 2009.
Yeah. The tricky bit here, is that if there are a 1000 authorized resellers in Delhi alone, how much stock would each have between now and the end of the year? On average? How the heck is Apple going to figure that out? Must be some smart people there at the ol' Apple HQ.
I speculate that in most of the countries that don't have Apple Stores or a real Apple presence they will just sell them to to the local carrier they are teamed with who will then sell them to the retailers. I don't expect all to carry them but I would expect most of them would carry one or two.
ok all this celebrating higher and higher sales, the extra cost of the plans has to have some influence, but if other smartphones have the same extra cellular cost then maybe....but why the stock price is down down down......what's this sell on good buy on bad news. i would have expected the stock price to be over 200 not 175. what do the analysts say about this....
so it doesn't make sense, maybe when these numbers start coming in will the stock price come up
also i can't wait for the apps store to open that will be another indicator.
Well, one thing that is going on is that the analysts tend to give projections on what the value of the stock will be in 12 months time. They usually don't focus on how the price will get there (I mean if they could nail the trends and the short term fluctuations, what the hell are the working for?).
It is easy for people on the boards to spout off when the price dips after an analyst predicts great things, but, in some sense, you are comparing apples and oranges.
As for what is happening right now, my theory is that many investors think that AAPL has great potential. Mac sales are strong despite a weak economy and the iPhone 2.0 is about as sure a thing as there is in tech these days, at least in the medium term. (In the short term, well, they are not for sale yet and beyond 2 years one can reasonably expect Apple to be adjusting to market changes but that is a long time in the cell phone market (look at the RAZR).) Anyone who is going long should be holding or buying AAPL.
However, it may be a while until it ramps up. As I stated parenthetically, currently there are NO iPhone sales. Furthermore, the market as a whole is jittery now with commodity prices in uncharted territory, the housing/mortgage/banking situation still unsettled and a presidential switch in the offing. Markets don't like uncertainty and that is what we have in spades right now. In the absence of any real news (between WWDC and the iPhone launch) AAPL is susceptible to the general winds of the market--sometimes more so since its current valuation already prices in some iPhone goodness that has yet to come.
To get ridiculously specific, I suspect the price will dither around the 170s and maybe even spike down after July 11 if there are any glitches or late breaking news causes panic. Then I expect a steady rise to $250. On the other hand, it is not hard to imagine prices starting to rise next week and everybody who has been waiting for a bottom-out to buy in on could pile in fearing missing their chance all together.
Bottom line, AAPL is going up within 12 months. You will make the most money either buying now or waiting, depending on what is going to happen.
And remember, I learned this today: generally, when prices go down, sales go up.
The most significant difference between the iPod/PS2 and here is that the iPhone comes with $70+ monthly plan for two years.
You're assuming that the buyer does not already pay for cellular service. My current provider charges me ±$60 a month, so the incremental cost is ±$120 a year, not $840.
However, it may be a while until it ramps up. As I stated parenthetically, currently there are NO iPhone sales. Furthermore, the market as a whole is jittery now with commodity prices in uncharted territory, the housing/mortgage/banking situation still unsettled and a presidential switch in the offing. Markets don't like uncertainty and that is what we have in spades right now. In the absence of any real news (between WWDC and the iPhone launch) AAPL is susceptible to the general winds of the market--sometimes more so since its current valuation already prices in some iPhone goodness that has yet to come.
To get ridiculously specific, I suspect the price will dither around the 170s and maybe even spike down after July 11 if there are any glitches or late breaking news causes panic. Then I expect a steady rise to $250. On the other hand, it is not hard to imagine prices starting to rise next week and everybody who has been waiting for a bottom-out to buy in on could pile in fearing missing their chance all together.
The next quarterly earnings report is around July 24. The long period of no iPhone sales
could cause some people to be disappointed in the earnings, even though it should not
come as a surprise. This could cause a tradable decline in AAPL, before the sales of the new
iPhones are appreciated. (did I just say the same thing as you?)
You're assuming that the buyer does not already pay for cellular service. My current provider charges me ±$60 a month, so the incremental cost is ±$120 a year, not $840.
I only want to know how many iPhones have to be sold for Apple's stock price to reach $250/share. Anything less than that means absolutely nothing. Will 10 million iPhones push the stock up to $190? Units sold mean nothing, only stock price matters.
The next quarterly earnings report is around July 24. The long period of no iPhone sales could cause some people to be disappointed in the earnings, even though it should not come as a surprise. This could cause a tradable decline in AAPL, before the sales of the new iPhones are appreciated. (did I just say the same thing as you?)
It is strongly suggested that the earnings for this financial quarter (April-May-June-2008) is "buffered" to some effect by subscription method of accounting that Apple is doing with the iPhones sold previously:
That prediction isn't outrageous. I can actually see it happening.
I predict 27M iPhones will be sold by January 1st 2009.
6 million sold so far, my model suggests above 15 million 2nd half of this year, that = 21 million. We could see 30 million or more total sold by the end of 2008 if the production and distribution, global launch co-ordination goes well. Crazy stuff.
I can picture the Macworld 2009 Jan San Fran keynote:
"We set ourselves a target to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of last year."
(keynote slide shows 10 million as the number)
"I'm pleased to announce, that we sold...
(keynote slide transitions, the 10 million number "bursts", a slide comes in...)
"35 million iPhones..."
"That's... (keynote slide shows big "25 million" graphic)
"...25 million more iPhones than we set ourselves to achieve..."
"This is the most successful Apple product in your history. Ever...."
(keynote slide shows impressive, colourful chart of iPhone sales...)
.........
.........
Ah, I can already feel the RDF. It is getting more powerful, it can now travel through time, this RDF thing.
Comments
If they offered a Mac Tablet with UMTS that would rock and I can see the mobile carrier's selling that, but I don't think it's going to happen...
Ah. I wonder what the "one more thing" in MacWorld SF Jan 2009 will be? One can only hope. Well, I'm hoping it's the Mac Touch with 3G and Wifi
As for the number of outlets selling the iPhone worldwide, I wonder what that count will be. Over 50,000?
In 2004/05, O2 UK had 235 stores. By now, let's say 300-500 stores in the UK as "O2 Retail" branded. Carphone Warehouse has 1,700 across Europe, with many of them in the UK, I believe. Apple, Inc. and Apple Resellers have about 20-50 stores in the UK.
On a low estimate, let's say each country has about 500 stores selling the iPhone. The July launch has almost 25 countries. Very roughly, an average of 500 outlets per country, that's 12,500 outlets where you can buy an iPhone in July.
By the end of the year, say about 70 countries in total, let's drop the average to 450 outlets per country, that would be... 31,500.
Since India is included and let's say they go in big, there could be 1,000 outlets in India alone.
Let's say the lowball figure is 25,000 outlets by the end of the year and highball at 50,000 by the end of year.
On the low estimate, If each outlet sells 100 iPhone 3G each by the end of the year, that's 2,500,000. 2.5 million iPhones. If each outlet sells 250 phones, on the low estimate, that's 6.25 million phones.
On a high estimate of 50,000 outlets around the world, each selling on average 250 phones during the whole of the 2nd half of 2008, that means... 12.5 million phones.
Some people may say, 50,000 is a very high number, 250 each store for 1 to 6 months is pretty low. Remember this average takes into account everything, Apple Stores, telco, "online", etc. etc.
So let's say 30,000 outlets globally, 500 units sold each store on average = 15 million iPhones sold in 2nd half of calendar 2008.
What do you all think? I'm sure proper scientists and retail specialists have got this all modelled out and worked out because Apple is going to have to figure out (or already have figured out) how to make and move 15 million iPhone 3Gs out the door in over 70 countries by Christmas 2008. There are certainly downside risks with such a big operation like this, but, they've done it before with the iPod.
And tech support and training for all these mostly new-to-Apple customers?
Since India is included and let's say they go in big, there could be 1,000 outlets in India alone.
I based my estimate on autorized retailers. While that is available in the US, as far as I know, I think it would have to be in other countries like Brazil and India where their are probably a 1000 just in Delhi.
I based my estimate on autorized retailers. While that is available in the US, as far as I know, I think it would have to be in other countries like Brazil and India where their are probably a 1000 just in Delhi.
Yeah. The tricky bit here, is that if there are a 1000 authorized resellers in Delhi alone, how much stock would each have between now and the end of the year? On average? How the heck is Apple going to figure that out? Must be some smart people there at the ol' Apple HQ.
Wow, can someone please give this analyst an Adam Smith Award for Most Insight?
Read that sentence again. What amazing insight. People, what he is saying here is that when prices go down, it has the effect of {drum roll, please} making sales go up.
FAAAAATHUUUUUUUUUUUUUUMMMMMMMMM! {That was the sound of my brain falling on the ground}
This guy gets paid to say these things. He should get paid way more than he's getting right now. I mean, with insight such as this it's no wonder we're all just a bunch of idiots following supremely intelligent people such as this guy.
Yeah, the analysts need to start factoring other stuff in, such as, clearly the limitations are how many iPhones Apple can *actually* make, finance operations required to make, market, and of course, all the distribution to consumers. This would be the "beef" of any analysis on predicted iPhone sales figures going into 2009.
Yeah. The tricky bit here, is that if there are a 1000 authorized resellers in Delhi alone, how much stock would each have between now and the end of the year? On average? How the heck is Apple going to figure that out? Must be some smart people there at the ol' Apple HQ.
I speculate that in most of the countries that don't have Apple Stores or a real Apple presence they will just sell them to to the local carrier they are teamed with who will then sell them to the retailers. I don't expect all to carry them but I would expect most of them would carry one or two.
ok all this celebrating higher and higher sales, the extra cost of the plans has to have some influence, but if other smartphones have the same extra cellular cost then maybe....but why the stock price is down down down......what's this sell on good buy on bad news. i would have expected the stock price to be over 200 not 175. what do the analysts say about this....
so it doesn't make sense, maybe when these numbers start coming in will the stock price come up
also i can't wait for the apps store to open that will be another indicator.
Well, one thing that is going on is that the analysts tend to give projections on what the value of the stock will be in 12 months time. They usually don't focus on how the price will get there (I mean if they could nail the trends and the short term fluctuations, what the hell are the working for?).
It is easy for people on the boards to spout off when the price dips after an analyst predicts great things, but, in some sense, you are comparing apples and oranges.
As for what is happening right now, my theory is that many investors think that AAPL has great potential. Mac sales are strong despite a weak economy and the iPhone 2.0 is about as sure a thing as there is in tech these days, at least in the medium term. (In the short term, well, they are not for sale yet and beyond 2 years one can reasonably expect Apple to be adjusting to market changes but that is a long time in the cell phone market (look at the RAZR).) Anyone who is going long should be holding or buying AAPL.
However, it may be a while until it ramps up. As I stated parenthetically, currently there are NO iPhone sales. Furthermore, the market as a whole is jittery now with commodity prices in uncharted territory, the housing/mortgage/banking situation still unsettled and a presidential switch in the offing. Markets don't like uncertainty and that is what we have in spades right now. In the absence of any real news (between WWDC and the iPhone launch) AAPL is susceptible to the general winds of the market--sometimes more so since its current valuation already prices in some iPhone goodness that has yet to come.
To get ridiculously specific, I suspect the price will dither around the 170s and maybe even spike down after July 11 if there are any glitches or late breaking news causes panic. Then I expect a steady rise to $250. On the other hand, it is not hard to imagine prices starting to rise next week and everybody who has been waiting for a bottom-out to buy in on could pile in fearing missing their chance all together.
Bottom line, AAPL is going up within 12 months. You will make the most money either buying now or waiting, depending on what is going to happen.
And remember, I learned this today: generally, when prices go down, sales go up.
The most significant difference between the iPod/PS2 and here is that the iPhone comes with $70+ monthly plan for two years.
You're assuming that the buyer does not already pay for cellular service. My current provider charges me ±$60 a month, so the incremental cost is ±$120 a year, not $840.
However, it may be a while until it ramps up. As I stated parenthetically, currently there are NO iPhone sales. Furthermore, the market as a whole is jittery now with commodity prices in uncharted territory, the housing/mortgage/banking situation still unsettled and a presidential switch in the offing. Markets don't like uncertainty and that is what we have in spades right now. In the absence of any real news (between WWDC and the iPhone launch) AAPL is susceptible to the general winds of the market--sometimes more so since its current valuation already prices in some iPhone goodness that has yet to come.
To get ridiculously specific, I suspect the price will dither around the 170s and maybe even spike down after July 11 if there are any glitches or late breaking news causes panic. Then I expect a steady rise to $250. On the other hand, it is not hard to imagine prices starting to rise next week and everybody who has been waiting for a bottom-out to buy in on could pile in fearing missing their chance all together.
The next quarterly earnings report is around July 24. The long period of no iPhone sales
could cause some people to be disappointed in the earnings, even though it should not
come as a surprise. This could cause a tradable decline in AAPL, before the sales of the new
iPhones are appreciated. (did I just say the same thing as you?
Ooh Am I first?
I'm still sticking to my prediction of 60 million total sold by end 2009
That prediction isn't outrageous. I can actually see it happening.
I predict 27M iPhones will be sold by January 1st 2009.
You're assuming that the buyer does not already pay for cellular service. My current provider charges me ±$60 a month, so the incremental cost is ±$120 a year, not $840.
i am glad someone finally pointed that out.
The next quarterly earnings report is around July 24. The long period of no iPhone sales could cause some people to be disappointed in the earnings, even though it should not come as a surprise. This could cause a tradable decline in AAPL, before the sales of the new iPhones are appreciated. (did I just say the same thing as you?
It is strongly suggested that the earnings for this financial quarter (April-May-June-2008) is "buffered" to some effect by subscription method of accounting that Apple is doing with the iPhones sold previously:
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?p=1269722
That is, the iPhone revenue for this financial quarter (April-May-June-2008) (FY Q3-08) would be a few hundred million even with very little sales.
That prediction isn't outrageous. I can actually see it happening.
I predict 27M iPhones will be sold by January 1st 2009.
6 million sold so far, my model suggests above 15 million 2nd half of this year, that = 21 million. We could see 30 million or more total sold by the end of 2008 if the production and distribution, global launch co-ordination goes well. Crazy stuff.
I can picture the Macworld 2009 Jan San Fran keynote:
"We set ourselves a target to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of last year."
(keynote slide shows 10 million as the number)
"I'm pleased to announce, that we sold...
(keynote slide transitions, the 10 million number "bursts", a slide comes in...)
"35 million iPhones..."
"That's... (keynote slide shows big "25 million" graphic)
"...25 million more iPhones than we set ourselves to achieve..."
"This is the most successful Apple product in your history. Ever...."
(keynote slide shows impressive, colourful chart of iPhone sales...)
.........
.........
Ah, I can already feel the RDF. It is getting more powerful, it can now travel through time, this RDF thing.
I can picture the Macworld 2009 Jan San Fran keynote:
"We set ourselves a target to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of last year."
(keynote slide shows 10 million as the number)
"I'm pleased to announce, that we sold...
(keynote slide transitions, the 10 million number "bursts", a slide comes in...)
"35 million iPhones..."
"That's... (keynote slide shows big "25 million" graphic)
"...25 million more iPhones than we set ourselves to achieve..."
"This is the most successful Apple product in your history. Ever...."
(keynote slide shows impressive, colourful chart of iPhone sales...)
I can see the RDF has an effect on you anyway.