Hopefully this will make more big companies make Mac versions of their apps.
It certainly won't hurt.
Off topic I wonder how the iPhone and iPod Touch will help Safari gain support among web developers. The number of iPhones and iPOd Touchs sold has or will out number the number of PCs. Surely the internet won't be used as much as a desktop but don't these stat sites only new devices based on their MAC with JS or there IP? Either way, the number of devices will show an uptick in WebKit on the internet, and with the Blackberry and Android's adoption it will be even higher.
Yeah, ok, I exaggerated. No one has estimated 50% more Macs than actually delivered. In fact Mac estimates tend to be fairly accurate. But last Christmas, many estimated 15% more iPods than actually shipped and were setting AAPL price targets higher and higher as the stock market went lower and lower.
For that quarter:
American Technology Research 12/4/07 24-25M iPods, 2.3M Macs, ~<2M iPhones, $1.63/share on $9.4B, 33% GM, PT $210
This is the 2nd time in this thread you've mis-read a post and ranted about your misinterpretation. First you claimed the OP said that 3 million had already been sold, when he made no such claim. YOU re-read his post, don't tell him to re-read. Now you claim I said that an analyst would raise his own estimates when in fact I said that analysts would try to outdo each other by raising estimates. That is, the analyst who said 3M will stick to it, but another, seeing what he predicted, may well attempt to get some headlines and make a higher prediction.
Read before you rant.
You didn't read what I responded to, just what I said.
That's called "taking something out of context".
Since you missed the point, passed the exit, looked away, fell asleep, went numb in the lower region, failed the pale, put the tuse in obtuse, had a sinus problem when the toast was buring, or just plain missed the point, now just move on. Nothing to see here.....
It's not crazy at all--his guess very likely to be correct. If you've watched AAPL over the years, you'd know it goes up on rumors and speculation (such as this), then tanks when actual products or profits get announced. Hell, it dropped $5 in the first 3 minutes of Jobs' latest keynote. In this case, "analysts" (aka. those paid large amounts of money to pull numbers out of a random orifice) will see the 3 million guess then try to outdo each other and raise estimates to 4.5 million. Investors will see these guesses and buy up AAPL. Then the original guess will turn out to have been correct all along and AAPL will drop $10 in overnight trading following the 5PM conference call from Cupertino. Just watch.
Pretty funny. I got your point that it's not even investment advice.
Sounds like people think Apple went down during SJ's first three minutes of speech because
they were "selling on the news".
Anyone paying any attention at all knows it had NOTHING to do with that, and was all about SJ.
And of course, since what happened in THAT keynote has never happened in the history of Apple or it's stock.... pointing to that as an example of what happens to Apples stock is of course......pointless.
As a long-term investor (~$14 when I bought in during the late nineties, hehe), I have viewed just about every conference call, macworld expo, etc, as being keynoted/whatevered by good news. ...and yet in the last couple years the stock always *always* goes down. Why? Perception. The perception is that, for whatever reason, the stock will drop after each official announcement. ...now... if you're a short-term investor in AAPL, and you are aware of this trend (and, we'll assume, a rational person), what would you do? You'd sell during, or just before, every announcement - trying to sell at what you think will be its highest.
That has got nothing to do with analysts, at this point. There was a causation several years back - IMO - where for a couple quarters analysts were predicting insane ipod numbers or new G5 laptops with cruise control and nunchuks or whatever... when the imaginary turned out to be imaginary their minions were disappointed and sold. I think that started the trend. But at this point it's not the analyst's doing - the perception has a life of its own.
In any case, you should all be investing in aapl for the long-term and buy buy buy... because that will make my portfolio increase in value <-- how's that for guidance?
As a long-term investor (~$14 when I bought in during the late nineties, hehe), I have viewed just about every conference call, macworld expo, etc, as being keynoted/whatevered by good news. ...and yet in the last couple years the stock always *always* goes down. Why? Perception. The perception is that, for whatever reason, the stock will drop after each official announcement. ...now... if you're a short-term investor in AAPL, and you are aware of this trend (and, we'll assume, a rational person), what would you do? You'd sell during, or just before, every announcement - trying to sell at what you think will be its highest.
That has got nothing to do with analysts, at this point. There was a causation several years back - IMO - where for a couple quarters analysts were predicting insane ipod numbers or new G5 laptops with cruise control and nunchuks or whatever... when the imaginary turned out to be imaginary their minions were disappointed and sold. I think that started the trend. But at this point it's not the analyst's doing - the perception has a life of its own.
In any case, you should all be investing in aapl for the long-term and buy buy buy... because that will make my portfolio increase in value <-- how's that for guidance?
Very good.
Well thought out.
Sans Hyperbole.
In general I would like people to think about one little thing.
To people with long term memory, it may SEEM like recently it always sells off on news.
CC and keynote alike. While this often does happen, there have been notable exceptions.
There also have been some cases of selling just prior to events with people trying to
anticipate the sell-off. As with most investments, as soon as the herd figures out
what "always happens", that system stops working.
I've always viewed the Apple shows as positive. And some of them had huge sell-offs
that were unique events. (makes blanket statements like "always sells off" sound
good but the reality has to do with individual events)
The most recent sell-off, was not a "every time they report people sell on the news".
THIS TIME, it was how thin SJ looked. He was not on the stage for 60 seconds before
the live blogs said things like "I can't believe how thin SJ looks.....". And it ran
from there.
Another biggie for history buffs, when Apple announced they were going Intel.
I think you could agree a huge stroke of genious largely seen by some of the
faithful as selling out to the evil empire, and by the FUDsters as proof that
Apple would become part of the PC world and give up on OS-X.
Apple stuck to it's leadership role in inovation which is largly misunderstood
by the investment community. You will take some ups and downs when you back
a winner that the investment community has trouble understanding.
As long as the FUDsters continue to believe Apple computers are much more
expensive than others, we're going to have a little choppy waters.
But making stuff up, talking crazy, or saying things that never in the history of
Apple have happend... will happen again.... when it hasn't ever happend....
well we need to keep it real.
People who think that during a largely bear market, Apple should command a 50 P/E for
a company with the market cap that Apple has.... and the reason they don't is some
kind of conspericy need to get real. Apple will, and always has, swing between the
high 20's and the high 40's in multiple depending on overall market conditions.
It won't go from a 46 multiple to a 32 multiple just because Apple had a CC and
people are selling on the news. It will fluctuate. People need to get over it.
A five or ten dollar movement in Apple's stock is like MicroSoft moving less
than a buck and a half. Yes, it's a movement, no it doesn't matter unless you
were silly enough to be playing options with a close strike and an expiration right
around the cc. (a strategy refered to as suicide investing)
Let's keep it real.
Nobody is ever going to take what others have as a full quarter estimate, and assume
Apple must have hit THAT at the half way point in the quarter and and jump everyone
with a huge increase. If you know anything at all about the investment world, these
guys that follow specific companies make their money by being right, not by being crazy.
The only place the crazy ones ever get playtime is in silly blogs and message boards
and there is NO money in that.
(of course Cramer is crazy and makes money but he works very hard and follows no companies)
Comments
Hopefully this will make more big companies make Mac versions of their apps.
It certainly won't hurt.
Off topic I wonder how the iPhone and iPod Touch will help Safari gain support among web developers. The number of iPhones and iPOd Touchs sold has or will out number the number of PCs. Surely the internet won't be used as much as a desktop but don't these stat sites only new devices based on their MAC with JS or there IP? Either way, the number of devices will show an uptick in WebKit on the internet, and with the Blackberry and Android's adoption it will be even higher.
Yeah, ok, I exaggerated. No one has estimated 50% more Macs than actually delivered. In fact Mac estimates tend to be fairly accurate. But last Christmas, many estimated 15% more iPods than actually shipped and were setting AAPL price targets higher and higher as the stock market went lower and lower.
For that quarter:
American Technology Research 12/4/07 24-25M iPods, 2.3M Macs, ~<2M iPhones, $1.63/share on $9.4B, 33% GM, PT $210
Bear Stearns 12/7/07 25M iPods, 2.2M Macs, 2.13M iPhones, PT $243-$249
UBS 12/17/07 17% growth in iPods, 2.24M Macs, 2.1M iPhones, $1.56/share on $9.42B, PT $235
Goldman Sachs 01/04/08, $1.60/share, PT $205-$220
Needham & Co 01/04/08, PT $235
Piper Jaffray 01/14/08, 24-25M iPods, 2.3M Macs, 2.2M iPhones, $1.73/share on $9.73B, 33% GM, PT $250
American Technology Research 01/16/08 PT $210
Actual 01/22/08: 22.1M iPods, 2.3M Macs, 2.3M iPhones, $1.76/share on $9.6B
All-time high AAPL close: $202.96
Current AAPL: $174.28
I think if you actually read the estimates posted here, it's pretty consistent with the smaller houses also.
Pretty much across the board, PT around 210 to 250.
Mac sales pretty much across the board in the 2.2-2.4 million units when actual was 2.3.
Doesn't sound like people ratching it up trying to out-do each other to me.
Pretty much the same with the rest of the estimates although some people missed the iPod
sales by as much as 10%.
The price target numbers don't mean anything because they don't relate to the quarter
and reflecting on the closing price for the end of December as a guage of a PT for
the upcoming year is obvious a faulty comparison.
I'd also point out that the price decline for 200 to 120 had less to do with Apple getting
ahead of itself and more to do with the rest of the market action.
So again, while it may seem that people are ratching up trying to out-do themselves..... nothing to see here let's move along.
This is the 2nd time in this thread you've mis-read a post and ranted about your misinterpretation. First you claimed the OP said that 3 million had already been sold, when he made no such claim. YOU re-read his post, don't tell him to re-read. Now you claim I said that an analyst would raise his own estimates when in fact I said that analysts would try to outdo each other by raising estimates. That is, the analyst who said 3M will stick to it, but another, seeing what he predicted, may well attempt to get some headlines and make a higher prediction.
Read before you rant.
You didn't read what I responded to, just what I said.
That's called "taking something out of context".
Since you missed the point, passed the exit, looked away, fell asleep, went numb in the lower region, failed the pale, put the tuse in obtuse, had a sinus problem when the toast was buring, or just plain missed the point, now just move on. Nothing to see here.....
It's not crazy at all--his guess very likely to be correct. If you've watched AAPL over the years, you'd know it goes up on rumors and speculation (such as this), then tanks when actual products or profits get announced. Hell, it dropped $5 in the first 3 minutes of Jobs' latest keynote. In this case, "analysts" (aka. those paid large amounts of money to pull numbers out of a random orifice) will see the 3 million guess then try to outdo each other and raise estimates to 4.5 million. Investors will see these guesses and buy up AAPL. Then the original guess will turn out to have been correct all along and AAPL will drop $10 in overnight trading following the 5PM conference call from Cupertino. Just watch.
Now *THAT'S* good investment guidance!
Now *THAT'S* good investment guidance!
Pretty funny. I got your point that it's not even investment advice.
Sounds like people think Apple went down during SJ's first three minutes of speech because
they were "selling on the news".
Anyone paying any attention at all knows it had NOTHING to do with that, and was all about SJ.
And of course, since what happened in THAT keynote has never happened in the history of Apple or it's stock.... pointing to that as an example of what happens to Apples stock is of course......pointless.
As a long-term investor (~$14 when I bought in during the late nineties, hehe), I have viewed just about every conference call, macworld expo, etc, as being keynoted/whatevered by good news. ...and yet in the last couple years the stock always *always* goes down. Why? Perception. The perception is that, for whatever reason, the stock will drop after each official announcement. ...now... if you're a short-term investor in AAPL, and you are aware of this trend (and, we'll assume, a rational person), what would you do? You'd sell during, or just before, every announcement - trying to sell at what you think will be its highest.
That has got nothing to do with analysts, at this point. There was a causation several years back - IMO - where for a couple quarters analysts were predicting insane ipod numbers or new G5 laptops with cruise control and nunchuks or whatever... when the imaginary turned out to be imaginary their minions were disappointed and sold. I think that started the trend. But at this point it's not the analyst's doing - the perception has a life of its own.
In any case, you should all be investing in aapl for the long-term and buy buy buy... because that will make my portfolio increase in value <-- how's that for guidance?
Okay, I'll weigh in for real...
As a long-term investor (~$14 when I bought in during the late nineties, hehe), I have viewed just about every conference call, macworld expo, etc, as being keynoted/whatevered by good news. ...and yet in the last couple years the stock always *always* goes down. Why? Perception. The perception is that, for whatever reason, the stock will drop after each official announcement. ...now... if you're a short-term investor in AAPL, and you are aware of this trend (and, we'll assume, a rational person), what would you do? You'd sell during, or just before, every announcement - trying to sell at what you think will be its highest.
That has got nothing to do with analysts, at this point. There was a causation several years back - IMO - where for a couple quarters analysts were predicting insane ipod numbers or new G5 laptops with cruise control and nunchuks or whatever... when the imaginary turned out to be imaginary their minions were disappointed and sold. I think that started the trend. But at this point it's not the analyst's doing - the perception has a life of its own.
In any case, you should all be investing in aapl for the long-term and buy buy buy... because that will make my portfolio increase in value <-- how's that for guidance?
Very good.
Well thought out.
Sans Hyperbole.
In general I would like people to think about one little thing.
To people with long term memory, it may SEEM like recently it always sells off on news.
CC and keynote alike. While this often does happen, there have been notable exceptions.
There also have been some cases of selling just prior to events with people trying to
anticipate the sell-off. As with most investments, as soon as the herd figures out
what "always happens", that system stops working.
I've always viewed the Apple shows as positive. And some of them had huge sell-offs
that were unique events. (makes blanket statements like "always sells off" sound
good but the reality has to do with individual events)
The most recent sell-off, was not a "every time they report people sell on the news".
THIS TIME, it was how thin SJ looked. He was not on the stage for 60 seconds before
the live blogs said things like "I can't believe how thin SJ looks.....". And it ran
from there.
Another biggie for history buffs, when Apple announced they were going Intel.
I think you could agree a huge stroke of genious largely seen by some of the
faithful as selling out to the evil empire, and by the FUDsters as proof that
Apple would become part of the PC world and give up on OS-X.
Apple stuck to it's leadership role in inovation which is largly misunderstood
by the investment community. You will take some ups and downs when you back
a winner that the investment community has trouble understanding.
As long as the FUDsters continue to believe Apple computers are much more
expensive than others, we're going to have a little choppy waters.
But making stuff up, talking crazy, or saying things that never in the history of
Apple have happend... will happen again.... when it hasn't ever happend....
well we need to keep it real.
People who think that during a largely bear market, Apple should command a 50 P/E for
a company with the market cap that Apple has.... and the reason they don't is some
kind of conspericy need to get real. Apple will, and always has, swing between the
high 20's and the high 40's in multiple depending on overall market conditions.
It won't go from a 46 multiple to a 32 multiple just because Apple had a CC and
people are selling on the news. It will fluctuate. People need to get over it.
A five or ten dollar movement in Apple's stock is like MicroSoft moving less
than a buck and a half. Yes, it's a movement, no it doesn't matter unless you
were silly enough to be playing options with a close strike and an expiration right
around the cc. (a strategy refered to as suicide investing)
Let's keep it real.
Nobody is ever going to take what others have as a full quarter estimate, and assume
Apple must have hit THAT at the half way point in the quarter and and jump everyone
with a huge increase. If you know anything at all about the investment world, these
guys that follow specific companies make their money by being right, not by being crazy.
The only place the crazy ones ever get playtime is in silly blogs and message boards
and there is NO money in that.
(of course Cramer is crazy and makes money but he works very hard and follows no companies)
Ten million Mac sales for the year?
Dead on, done deal, no problem, put it in the bank.