Armchair marketers often talk about giving customers choice as if customers will flock to the provider with the greatest range of choices. Actually, I think customers want a few, well crafted choices of things that work really well.
Think about it, if your supermarket carried five thousand kinds of crunchy snacks you'd never buy anything. This is probably why some people have trouble selecting a wine, there are too many confusing choices.
I was involved in the manufacturing and sales of an instrument that had two branches to the technology. One was very open and free of constraints. The engineers could build anything they wanted. The other branch had some serious technical constraints that limited how part of the instrument could be designed. It turns out that the more limited branch of the business has long had better financial health. My interpretation is that having limits meant that larger numbers of identical units were sold which was good for the stability of the business. The free and open branch suffered by from the large number of designs of which only smaller numbers were sold. Also, every time a new application was discovered someone would build a custom device to siphon off that business. It has been difficult to sell a generic device which means it is hard to make money in that business.
The lesson to be learned for Apple is that the iPhone could be very successful simply if Apple continues to restrict the iPhone to a small number of designs. Developers will conform to that reality. Androld will a bunch of different implementations, none with anything near the market size of the iPhone. Each implementation (as was pointed out above) will be different. Most will have keyboards, some won't. Some will have some clever dedicated buttons, others won't. Some will have a dock connector for connection to speaker systems and such, others will have different connectors.
Finally, the Apple Stores are a huge advantage for the iPhone. Not only can you find one nearby to purchase a phone, you can there return there anytime and get free help if something goes wrong. How many Google stores are there across the US?
The G1 will not impact the iPhone sales as most iPhone purchasers are familiar with the iPod and apple brands and will quite happily continue to purchase them. Most G1 purchasers will probably be Winmo users who would never ever buy an iPhone in the first place. Until google and t-mobile create a mass market device to create a huge public 'want' for a google phone then the sales will be relatively flat.
Armchair marketers often talk about giving customers choice as if customers will flock to the provider with the greatest range of choices. Actually, I think customers want a few, well crafted choices of things that work really well.
I'd like to agree but the proliferation of Windows shows that we are suckers for choice (for obvious social reasons). When you talk about third party software it's automatically seen as a benefit and the benefit is seen in quantity over quality. Unfortunately freedom of choice is also freedom to fail and as we become increasingly time-poor having less chaff might become the order of the day.
I'd probably visit that supermarket with fewer choices and better quality products - or am I just getting old?
As many have mentioned on this thread, while AT&T's 3G network is nothing to be proud of, it is exponentially better than T-Mobile's. And they don't even have EDGE everywhere either. Where I live in Northeast Indiana, we have the second largest population in the state, second to Indianapolis, where AT&T has had 3G for a while. T-Mobile? They are still running on GPRS up here. EDGE surfing on the iPhone was/is pretty slow, just imagine what it would be like on GPRS.
The biggest selling point of the Android phone is its wide-open nature.
Thus, I believe the biggest selling programs for the Android phone will be PORN software.
PORN uses up half of all the traffic on the internet.
Since PORN is banned on the iPhone, it surely would be a natural application on the Android Phone.
There are limitless ideas - both titillating, kinky, and downright sick - for PORN applications on the iPhone.
PORN makes TONS of money. It is the most successful form of business on the internet.
PORN apps are thus a natural outlet on the Android phone.
A 3rd party accessory idea for the PORN business on the Android phone would be disposable latex Android condoms that would fit over the Android phone providing protection.
PORN apps for Android would be the primary reason to LUST for an Android phone.
As to price of the monthly service plan, with T-Mobile it's $35 for data - capped as noted below - and $25 more for SMS, plus at least $20 for some basic service level. that totals $80+, about the same as the iPhone AT&T package.
Not sure where you got $80 from.
There's two G1 Data plans: $25 for Unlimited Data and 400 SMS or $35 for Unlimited Data/SMS.
So going for cheapest plans here at purchase:
G1:
Individual Basic Voice $30 + $25 Basic Data = $55/month for 300mins, unlimited weekends, 400 sms.
iPhone:
Cheapest voice plan $40 + $30 Data = $70/month for 450mins, 5K night/weekend, zero SMS, and fancy rollover. You'll have to add $5 to $20 or something to get SMS as well.
The biggest selling point of the Android phone is its wide-open nature.
Thus, I believe the biggest selling programs for the Android phone will be PORN software
Why? The Mac or Windows (or symbian, WinMo, PalmOS) platform is no different than Android with an open system allowing the end-user to install whatever apps they want from any developer.
So why aren't the top ten apps at macupdate.com porn. It's just as open allowing any developer to post their app for downloading. Why would the Android platform be any different? Because it's "mobile"?
I'm not sure Apple's choice to control it all is just about 'control' but rather seeing the need to create a viable market that doesn't really exist in the PC world.? That viable market isn't susceptible to piracy ideally...
Is Google going to provide a 'closed' developer / app store type model or will software be available on the open market - and potentially pirate-able? How does Google intend to limit piracy on its device?
I think honestly ( from a developer viewpoint ) - Apple has managed to deliver a closed (read low piracy) model similar to a Nintendo or Sony video-game system - except here it's a multi-purpose computing device, like a PC (or 'popular internet device'). Also like a Nintendo they also happen to be selling in well - creating a platform base with substantial numbers after just one year. Selling 50k of Monkeyball in just a few weeks shows it's the first viable 'cell phone' platform, certainly for video-games... just turns out 'cell phone' is just 1 feature...
I think that is the most important difference that would keep developers migrating to a system where their sales are lower - but I'm not sure how Google intends to deliver/protect apps etc.
Obviously limiting Piracy is all about price of apps being reasonable also...
A physical keyboard may be better for writing long missives, which I rarely do, but I think it will be a drag to have to slide it out and turn the phone to enter passwords, or search words into google, or words into dictionaries, or urls into a browser etc., all of which I do often.
Why? The Mac or Windows (or symbian, WinMo, PalmOS) platform is no different than Android with an open system allowing the end-user to install whatever apps they want from any developer.
So why aren't the top ten apps at macupdate.com porn. It's just as open allowing any developer to post their app for downloading. Why would the Android platform be any different? Because it's "mobile"?
What the hell are you talking about? Symbian has locked down their platform quite a lot recently. PalmOS is trying to be keep from going bankrupt, not because they are evangelicals for FOSS.
Everyone needs to realize that GPL(versions), BSD, MIT, LGPL, et.al are here to stay and help for their target goals quite well.
Linux is great. OS X is great. I can fix from the kernel to the user space.
I sure as hell don't want my phone experience to be a piss-poor one that requires me to hack on it to fix it.
Watch and scream when T-Mobile locks features down as Android matures.
No Telco wants to have a wide-open backbone for consumers to circumvent.
Apple and Steve Jobs have really shown their true colors on this App Store and Ad Hoc thing. I hope Google totally humiliate them. Apple: even Microsoft don't behave this bad.
If many renewing T-Mobile customers decide to not switch to an iPhone and instead to go for the Android- how does this not affect potential iPhone sales?
If many renewing T-Mobile customers decide to not switch to an iPhone and instead to go for the Android- how does this not affect potential iPhone sales?
Depends on the definition of the word "many".
How many would be buying the iPhone anyway? How many have already?
The estimates I've seen for G1 sales are in the lower hundred thousands for the first quarter. I doubt if most would have bought an iPhone instead. Just like the Instinct from Sprint. A few may have bought that instead, but not many.
So Apple may lose 50,000, maybe 75,000 in sales this coming quarter, if that?
That's not much out of 5 to possibly 7 million for the holiday season. I really doubt it would be much more than that.
If many renewing T-Mobile customers decide to not switch to an iPhone and instead to go for the Android- how does this not affect potential iPhone sales?
More than likely the G1 sales will replace T-Mobiles popular Sidekick.
Since PORN is banned on the iPhone, it surely would be a natural application on the Android Phone.
While Apple will not publish an official native app for porn on the app store. Anyone is free to develop web apps with whatever content they choose. Their is no reason why porn sites could not make a web app that streams porn content to the iPhone.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nolatron
iPhone:
Cheapest voice plan $40 + $30 Data = $70/month for 450mins, 5K night/weekend, zero SMS, and fancy rollover. You'll have to add $5 to $20 or something to get SMS as well.
Hey don't knock roll over. I didn't think much of it when I first signed with AT&T. Now after a year I have 1,500 minutes in my roll over bank. I don't even think about minutes anymore.
I think that it's more like HTC is in charge of the hardware specs --- it's basically a cheaper version of the HTC Touch HD. Same Qualcomm CPU as the HTC Touch HD. The Touch HD has a better camera, has a larger screen and has Windows Mobile. The G1 has a physical keyboard.
T-Mobile dictates what services will or will not be available on their network. From there HTC designs their hardware specs to remote those requirements.
Comments
They sold me with the compass! Now that is AWESOME!
And words simply can't describe how I feel about a USB headphone jack!
</sarcasm>
I agree. How can a unit with non-existing headphone jack be targeting families?
Think about it, if your supermarket carried five thousand kinds of crunchy snacks you'd never buy anything. This is probably why some people have trouble selecting a wine, there are too many confusing choices.
I was involved in the manufacturing and sales of an instrument that had two branches to the technology. One was very open and free of constraints. The engineers could build anything they wanted. The other branch had some serious technical constraints that limited how part of the instrument could be designed. It turns out that the more limited branch of the business has long had better financial health. My interpretation is that having limits meant that larger numbers of identical units were sold which was good for the stability of the business. The free and open branch suffered by from the large number of designs of which only smaller numbers were sold. Also, every time a new application was discovered someone would build a custom device to siphon off that business. It has been difficult to sell a generic device which means it is hard to make money in that business.
The lesson to be learned for Apple is that the iPhone could be very successful simply if Apple continues to restrict the iPhone to a small number of designs. Developers will conform to that reality. Androld will a bunch of different implementations, none with anything near the market size of the iPhone. Each implementation (as was pointed out above) will be different. Most will have keyboards, some won't. Some will have some clever dedicated buttons, others won't. Some will have a dock connector for connection to speaker systems and such, others will have different connectors.
Finally, the Apple Stores are a huge advantage for the iPhone. Not only can you find one nearby to purchase a phone, you can there return there anytime and get free help if something goes wrong. How many Google stores are there across the US?
Armchair marketers often talk about giving customers choice as if customers will flock to the provider with the greatest range of choices. Actually, I think customers want a few, well crafted choices of things that work really well.
I'd like to agree but the proliferation of Windows shows that we are suckers for choice (for obvious social reasons). When you talk about third party software it's automatically seen as a benefit and the benefit is seen in quantity over quality. Unfortunately freedom of choice is also freedom to fail and as we become increasingly time-poor having less chaff might become the order of the day.
I'd probably visit that supermarket with fewer choices and better quality products - or am I just getting old?
McD
Thus, I believe the biggest selling programs for the Android phone will be PORN software.
PORN uses up half of all the traffic on the internet.
Since PORN is banned on the iPhone, it surely would be a natural application on the Android Phone.
There are limitless ideas - both titillating, kinky, and downright sick - for PORN applications on the iPhone.
PORN makes TONS of money. It is the most successful form of business on the internet.
PORN apps are thus a natural outlet on the Android phone.
A 3rd party accessory idea for the PORN business on the Android phone would be disposable latex Android condoms that would fit over the Android phone providing protection.
PORN apps for Android would be the primary reason to LUST for an Android phone.
As to price of the monthly service plan, with T-Mobile it's $35 for data - capped as noted below - and $25 more for SMS, plus at least $20 for some basic service level. that totals $80+, about the same as the iPhone AT&T package.
Not sure where you got $80 from.
There's two G1 Data plans: $25 for Unlimited Data and 400 SMS or $35 for Unlimited Data/SMS.
So going for cheapest plans here at purchase:
G1:
Individual Basic Voice $30 + $25 Basic Data = $55/month for 300mins, unlimited weekends, 400 sms.
iPhone:
Cheapest voice plan $40 + $30 Data = $70/month for 450mins, 5K night/weekend, zero SMS, and fancy rollover. You'll have to add $5 to $20 or something to get SMS as well.
The biggest selling point of the Android phone is its wide-open nature.
Thus, I believe the biggest selling programs for the Android phone will be PORN software
Why? The Mac or Windows (or symbian, WinMo, PalmOS) platform is no different than Android with an open system allowing the end-user to install whatever apps they want from any developer.
So why aren't the top ten apps at macupdate.com porn. It's just as open allowing any developer to post their app for downloading. Why would the Android platform be any different? Because it's "mobile"?
Is Google going to provide a 'closed' developer / app store type model or will software be available on the open market - and potentially pirate-able? How does Google intend to limit piracy on its device?
I think honestly ( from a developer viewpoint ) - Apple has managed to deliver a closed (read low piracy) model similar to a Nintendo or Sony video-game system - except here it's a multi-purpose computing device, like a PC (or 'popular internet device'). Also like a Nintendo they also happen to be selling in well - creating a platform base with substantial numbers after just one year. Selling 50k of Monkeyball in just a few weeks shows it's the first viable 'cell phone' platform, certainly for video-games... just turns out 'cell phone' is just 1 feature...
I think that is the most important difference that would keep developers migrating to a system where their sales are lower - but I'm not sure how Google intends to deliver/protect apps etc.
Obviously limiting Piracy is all about price of apps being reasonable also...
Why? The Mac or Windows (or symbian, WinMo, PalmOS) platform is no different than Android with an open system allowing the end-user to install whatever apps they want from any developer.
So why aren't the top ten apps at macupdate.com porn. It's just as open allowing any developer to post their app for downloading. Why would the Android platform be any different? Because it's "mobile"?
What the hell are you talking about? Symbian has locked down their platform quite a lot recently. PalmOS is trying to be keep from going bankrupt, not because they are evangelicals for FOSS.
Everyone needs to realize that GPL(versions), BSD, MIT, LGPL, et.al are here to stay and help for their target goals quite well.
Linux is great. OS X is great. I can fix from the kernel to the user space.
I sure as hell don't want my phone experience to be a piss-poor one that requires me to hack on it to fix it.
Watch and scream when T-Mobile locks features down as Android matures.
No Telco wants to have a wide-open backbone for consumers to circumvent.
You don't like it, don't use it.
If many renewing T-Mobile customers decide to not switch to an iPhone and instead to go for the Android- how does this not affect potential iPhone sales?
Depends on the definition of the word "many".
How many would be buying the iPhone anyway? How many have already?
The estimates I've seen for G1 sales are in the lower hundred thousands for the first quarter. I doubt if most would have bought an iPhone instead. Just like the Instinct from Sprint. A few may have bought that instead, but not many.
So Apple may lose 50,000, maybe 75,000 in sales this coming quarter, if that?
That's not much out of 5 to possibly 7 million for the holiday season. I really doubt it would be much more than that.
If many renewing T-Mobile customers decide to not switch to an iPhone and instead to go for the Android- how does this not affect potential iPhone sales?
More than likely the G1 sales will replace T-Mobiles popular Sidekick.
Since PORN is banned on the iPhone, it surely would be a natural application on the Android Phone.
While Apple will not publish an official native app for porn on the app store. Anyone is free to develop web apps with whatever content they choose. Their is no reason why porn sites could not make a web app that streams porn content to the iPhone.
iPhone:
Cheapest voice plan $40 + $30 Data = $70/month for 450mins, 5K night/weekend, zero SMS, and fancy rollover. You'll have to add $5 to $20 or something to get SMS as well.
Hey don't knock roll over. I didn't think much of it when I first signed with AT&T. Now after a year I have 1,500 minutes in my roll over bank. I don't even think about minutes anymore.
I think that it's more like HTC is in charge of the hardware specs --- it's basically a cheaper version of the HTC Touch HD. Same Qualcomm CPU as the HTC Touch HD. The Touch HD has a better camera, has a larger screen and has Windows Mobile. The G1 has a physical keyboard.
T-Mobile dictates what services will or will not be available on their network. From there HTC designs their hardware specs to remote those requirements.