Judging by the new manufacturing process, a.k.a. the brick, and coming from working in that industry before I don't see how they'll have a chance of selling this for $800. I've seen all those pics, the whole top, keyboard tray and side walls is machined out of one solid piece of aluminum. I'd be frankly surprised to see a $899 price point. Unless Apple are in fact making the product themselves.
Oppenheimer - "transition, cost" etc.
The only way I see this being less than $950, is if in fact they are producing these things in their own smallish factory in Asia. At least that part of the product. Which is easily believable. I worked in a place which could make these out of aluminum, but the cost to get something like this made was astronomical. We're talking thousand$ per unit. Even at millions of units they still wouldn't be as cheap as Apple would need them to be in order to sell at these kinds of prices I don't think.
I see no way they could be machined out of a block.
The costs are enormous! As you also say. They could use high pressure water (mixed with a grit slurry) machining process, but other than for small parts, it's very expensive, and normally only used for parts that can't be made in more conventional ways.
They could use high precision injection casting. That works well, and is used for camera bodies, so it's understood, and not overly expensive. But is it less than the normal sheet metal stamping, drawing, and pressing? Depends. It sure is more rigid.
Also, machining from a block would leave almost all waste, which then must be reclaimed. Very energy intensive and inefficient. If it's mixed with a slurry, well, you know the problems.
If Apple does do this. I would believe it is because they have been able to get the cost of bulk component purchases and manufacturing down to where in the long run Apple will continue make their revenue margins. This is something Apple likely was not able to do in the past.
Its likely Apple is able to do this because Nvidia wants its chipsets to gain respect and wide use. Apple promoting them in its notebooks is an excellent way to achieve such respect.
I don't see how Nvidia fits into this. Even if they gave Apple their chips for free, the price couldn't come down $200.
This would have to be a total overhaul of how Apple builds its machines.
I don't see how Nvidia fits into this. Even if they gave Apple their chips for free, the price couldn't come down $200.
This would have to be a total overhaul of how Apple builds its machines.
I mentioned manufacturing. Whatever the reason my point is if Apple has lowered the MB price its not at a loss in revenue. Its because something has changed that allows the price to be lowered while maintaining revenue margins over the long run.
I mentioned manufacturing. Whatever the reason my point is if Apple has lowered the MB price its not at a loss in revenue. Its because something has changed that allows the price to be lowered while maintaining revenue margins over the long run.
I realized you did. I just didn't think Nividia could have much to do with a price drop.
I can see Apple lowering costs enough to lower the price somewhat. Then the profits would be less as well, but could be the same on a percentage basis. It's possible they then could reduce profits a bit too.
This is all interesting speculation, but until the "show" goes on, we won't know if any of our reasoning is meaningful.
Then, as usual, in hindsight, we can do our thing.
Hmm.... Gruber over at Darling Fireball is saying that the new low-end MacBook will be going for $999, not $899 or $800. Still sub-$1K though, if true.
Comments
Since Apple has a 70% marketshare of ALL consumer PCs in the US ....
Huh ?
Judging by the new manufacturing process, a.k.a. the brick, and coming from working in that industry before I don't see how they'll have a chance of selling this for $800. I've seen all those pics, the whole top, keyboard tray and side walls is machined out of one solid piece of aluminum. I'd be frankly surprised to see a $899 price point. Unless Apple are in fact making the product themselves.
Oppenheimer - "transition, cost" etc.
The only way I see this being less than $950, is if in fact they are producing these things in their own smallish factory in Asia. At least that part of the product. Which is easily believable. I worked in a place which could make these out of aluminum, but the cost to get something like this made was astronomical. We're talking thousand$ per unit. Even at millions of units they still wouldn't be as cheap as Apple would need them to be in order to sell at these kinds of prices I don't think.
I see no way they could be machined out of a block.
The costs are enormous! As you also say. They could use high pressure water (mixed with a grit slurry) machining process, but other than for small parts, it's very expensive, and normally only used for parts that can't be made in more conventional ways.
They could use high precision injection casting. That works well, and is used for camera bodies, so it's understood, and not overly expensive. But is it less than the normal sheet metal stamping, drawing, and pressing? Depends. It sure is more rigid.
Also, machining from a block would leave almost all waste, which then must be reclaimed. Very energy intensive and inefficient. If it's mixed with a slurry, well, you know the problems.
If Apple does do this. I would believe it is because they have been able to get the cost of bulk component purchases and manufacturing down to where in the long run Apple will continue make their revenue margins. This is something Apple likely was not able to do in the past.
Its likely Apple is able to do this because Nvidia wants its chipsets to gain respect and wide use. Apple promoting them in its notebooks is an excellent way to achieve such respect.
I don't see how Nvidia fits into this. Even if they gave Apple their chips for free, the price couldn't come down $200.
This would have to be a total overhaul of how Apple builds its machines.
NOPE I don't think that these dufi (plural of duffus) :-) caused the stock to do anything.
As far as an $900 MacBook. It would be nice but I would not hold my breath. besides, tuesday is almost here. we shall see what we shall see.
Apple hitting 80 again, ... buying opportunity.
Just a thought.
en
I don't see how Nvidia fits into this. Even if they gave Apple their chips for free, the price couldn't come down $200.
This would have to be a total overhaul of how Apple builds its machines.
I mentioned manufacturing. Whatever the reason my point is if Apple has lowered the MB price its not at a loss in revenue. Its because something has changed that allows the price to be lowered while maintaining revenue margins over the long run.
I mentioned manufacturing. Whatever the reason my point is if Apple has lowered the MB price its not at a loss in revenue. Its because something has changed that allows the price to be lowered while maintaining revenue margins over the long run.
I realized you did. I just didn't think Nividia could have much to do with a price drop.
I can see Apple lowering costs enough to lower the price somewhat. Then the profits would be less as well, but could be the same on a percentage basis. It's possible they then could reduce profits a bit too.
This is all interesting speculation, but until the "show" goes on, we won't know if any of our reasoning is meaningful.
Then, as usual, in hindsight, we can do our thing.
Boy oh boy ? another Apple meeting that will disappoint.
It has to disappoint someone!
Someone wants a cheap (with all of the bells and whistles) laptop ?
Someone wants Apple to keep making tons of bucks ?
Someone wants a kick-ass big laptop, for cheap ?
Someone wants new monitors ?
Someone wants flash drive iPhones ?
Someone wants new desktop units ?
Someone wants blu-ray drives ?
Someone wants thin ?
Someone is fine with thick ? as long as it has "this" processor ?
Someone will not like the margins ?
And the beat goes on.
Apple will NOT please everyone tomorrow, so Apple will disappoint everyone tomorrow, and then - the stock will go down
Skip
Funniest thing I read this morning, I was really having a stressful day. This post made me smile and think at the same time. Thanks Dude.
Guess I'll have to change my sig.
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Huh ?
I forget to add, "$1000+ market"
Hmm.... Gruber over at Darling Fireball is saying that the new low-end MacBook will be going for $999 ... Guess I'll have to change my sig.
Analyst Munster (sp?), who has the best track record, said a week or two ago that he's 80% confident there will be a $900 laptop.
That rates as hilarious? Dane Cook, watch out.
All I'm gonna do is delete item #2 in das sig... if Stevie delivers.
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