They got their estimates so low because they don't know the specifics breakdowns of the deferred revenues --- the vast majority of the deferred revenues are coming from 1st gen iphones with complex revenue models (like head bounty and carrier revenue sharing). They missed the EPS numbers because they also got the margins wrong.
I don't think that is true - do you have a link to support that? In any case the original iPhone numbers are insignificant compared to the 11 million 3G units sold, and most 1st generation iPhones were unlocked (which results in zero deferred revenue, since there was no AT&T activation).
If you are right, the analysts will be much more accurate this coming quarter. If I am right, and they really are boneheads like I think that they are, then they will be way low (again). My personal estimate is $1.30/share GAAP EPS this quarter.
I don't think that is true - do you have a link to support that? In any case the original iPhone numbers are insignificant compared to the 11 million 3G units sold, and most 1st generation iPhones were unlocked (which results in zero deferred revenue, since there was no AT&T activation).
I don't have links to support that.
What I am saying is that Wall Street analysts get revenues wrong because Apple decided to release as little information on iphone's business models as possible in their SEC filings (and then obscure the numbers even more by lumping the iphone numbers with apple tv numbers). Apple is doing that because they don't want their competitors to know too much on their business models --- and I agree with Apple for that.
As Warren Buffett said it best --- "it's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked." Any idiot can get things right in good bubble years (love to watch those flip this house and flip that house shows where the guy knows absolutely nothing about flipping houses/real estate/diy home renovations, yet making obscene amount on the flip). A few Apple bulls may find themselves naked in this environment.
What I am saying is that Wall Street analysts get revenues wrong because Apple decided to release as little information on iphone's business models as possible in their SEC filings
That used to be true, but not that they give both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings and revenue, you can figure everything out (profit per phone, deferred revenue, etc) with some simple algebra.
That used to be true, but not that they give both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings and revenue, you can figure everything out (profit per phone, deferred revenue, etc) with some simple algebra.
The devil is in the details, isn't it?
It is a much better explanation than armchair analysts on appleinsider talking about conspiracy theories about the whole wall street not understanding some basic financial ideas. Many companies booked "gift cards" as "deferred revenues" --- so it's not a foreign concept to Wall Street analysts.
Update the MacPro and I'll buy one. It's been 409 days since the last update.
Update the Mac mini and I'll buy one. It's been 563 days since the last update.
Does it surprise anyone that their desktop sales are lagging? They're trying to sell more than a year old components (nearly two in the Mac mini) at the same prices they were selling a year ago.
There are two very simple ways for Apple to help it's bottom line. One, drop the price slightly on their current desktop machines - the prices for components must have significantly dropped. Two, update the computers to modern components and keep the prices the same.
Yeah, so right. Mac Mini - I will buy 2 new (Nvidia) ones. Maybe a cheaper iMac 20 with TB screen and Nvidia 9400M IGP, if priced right. Selling more than a year's technology at today's prices are just a crime!.
Release new products already- iMacs, Mac minis, new iPhones, 7" MacTouch -anything please.
Bump. However, it should be noted that the mobile/tablet market WILL become the dominating factor in all future consumer computing considerations. I predict the eventual slow death of the home desktop as mobiles become more powerful and capable. I mean, seriously; why sit at a desk when you can do it wherever, whenever? Go iphone OS!
Comments
They got their estimates so low because they don't know the specifics breakdowns of the deferred revenues --- the vast majority of the deferred revenues are coming from 1st gen iphones with complex revenue models (like head bounty and carrier revenue sharing). They missed the EPS numbers because they also got the margins wrong.
I don't think that is true - do you have a link to support that? In any case the original iPhone numbers are insignificant compared to the 11 million 3G units sold, and most 1st generation iPhones were unlocked (which results in zero deferred revenue, since there was no AT&T activation).
If you are right, the analysts will be much more accurate this coming quarter. If I am right, and they really are boneheads like I think that they are, then they will be way low (again). My personal estimate is $1.30/share GAAP EPS this quarter.
I don't think that is true - do you have a link to support that? In any case the original iPhone numbers are insignificant compared to the 11 million 3G units sold, and most 1st generation iPhones were unlocked (which results in zero deferred revenue, since there was no AT&T activation).
I don't have links to support that.
What I am saying is that Wall Street analysts get revenues wrong because Apple decided to release as little information on iphone's business models as possible in their SEC filings (and then obscure the numbers even more by lumping the iphone numbers with apple tv numbers). Apple is doing that because they don't want their competitors to know too much on their business models --- and I agree with Apple for that.
As Warren Buffett said it best --- "it's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked." Any idiot can get things right in good bubble years (love to watch those flip this house and flip that house shows where the guy knows absolutely nothing about flipping houses/real estate/diy home renovations, yet making obscene amount on the flip). A few Apple bulls may find themselves naked in this environment.
What I am saying is that Wall Street analysts get revenues wrong because Apple decided to release as little information on iphone's business models as possible in their SEC filings
That used to be true, but not that they give both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings and revenue, you can figure everything out (profit per phone, deferred revenue, etc) with some simple algebra.
That used to be true, but not that they give both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings and revenue, you can figure everything out (profit per phone, deferred revenue, etc) with some simple algebra.
The devil is in the details, isn't it?
It is a much better explanation than armchair analysts on appleinsider talking about conspiracy theories about the whole wall street not understanding some basic financial ideas. Many companies booked "gift cards" as "deferred revenues" --- so it's not a foreign concept to Wall Street analysts.
Why is that antagonizing, I ask you? I'm only inquiring- I don't care if it's written down over 20 years- I must know "why"?
And yes, I am a little bored.
try doing your own research?
or is your attention span too short?
Update the MacPro and I'll buy one. It's been 409 days since the last update.
Update the Mac mini and I'll buy one. It's been 563 days since the last update.
Does it surprise anyone that their desktop sales are lagging? They're trying to sell more than a year old components (nearly two in the Mac mini) at the same prices they were selling a year ago.
There are two very simple ways for Apple to help it's bottom line. One, drop the price slightly on their current desktop machines - the prices for components must have significantly dropped. Two, update the computers to modern components and keep the prices the same.
Yeah, so right. Mac Mini - I will buy 2 new (Nvidia) ones. Maybe a cheaper iMac 20 with TB screen and Nvidia 9400M IGP, if priced right. Selling more than a year's technology at today's prices are just a crime!.
Release new products already- iMacs, Mac minis, new iPhones, 7" MacTouch -anything please.
Bump. However, it should be noted that the mobile/tablet market WILL become the dominating factor in all future consumer computing considerations. I predict the eventual slow death of the home desktop as mobiles become more powerful and capable. I mean, seriously; why sit at a desk when you can do it wherever, whenever? Go iphone OS!