Emerging iPhone contenders charted, compared by RBC

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  • Reply 61 of 71
    Fellows good to look behind the vendor before buying a product that you need for long time. Apple is financially very strong with $25b in bank. See Nokia below and investigate others like palm who might not have anything left by end of year.



    Nokia Borrows $630 Million For Symbian R&D, Foundation

    Friday February 20, 10:37 am ET

    By Robert Andrews



    Somewhere in the Mobile World Congress melee, Nokia (NYSE: NOK - News) quietly announced that it had secured a ?500 million ($629.5 million), five-year loan from European Investment Bank (EIB). The loan is designed to part-finance software R&D Nokia plans to conduct between 2009 and 2011 "to make Symbian-based smartphones more competitive".



    now when money run out so does the future of your phone
  • Reply 62 of 71
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    Monday, May 12th, 2008 - RIM announced a $150 million BlackBerry (NSDQ: RIMM) Partners Fund along with RBC, Thomson Reuters, and several private Canadian investors. Can anything RBC say regarding iPhone be taken seriously by investors? They should at the very least preface anything they say in this regard with "We have a massive financial reason to see iPhone fail". When is the SEC going to investigate these analysts, who clearly have a vested interest in seeing certain stocks move in certain directions?



    Just because you disagree with his analysis doesn't mean that he's trying to scuttle the stock. Yes, RBC owns RBC Capital Markets and also owns RBC Venture Partners. As you have pointed out, the latter has partnered with RIM on a $150 million venture capital fund. But to put this in perspective, RBC has over $600 billion in assets.
  • Reply 63 of 71
    mark2005mark2005 Posts: 1,158member
    samab, I am in agreement with you that VZW has and has been in the lead in postpaid subscribers, churn rate, network reliability, etc. for a long time. And if the iPhone was on VZW, it would be lights out.



    But since AT&T picked up iPhone, it's hung in and even started coming back. By late 2006, Verizon wireless (VZW) had passed and was beginning to pull away from AT&T Wireless. VZW had had several consecutive quarters of 18%+ increases in total wireless revenue. But since iPhone's release in mid 2007, AT&T has tied or beaten VZW in every quarter in terms of percentage increase in total wireless revenue. AT&T actually had a slim lead in the last quarter. and it finally passed VZW in total wireless data revenue.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    Verizon has higher data ARPU than AT&T. That's the only thing that matter to Verizon.



    Maybe.



    1. Using overall data ARPU (includes wholesale and retail, postpaid and prepaid) figure, AT&T is closing the gap.

    AT&T: 4Q07- $10.01; 4Q08- $13.50 - 35% yoy gain

    VZW: 4Q07- $10.84; 4Q08- $13.84 - 28% yoy gain



    2. But AT&T also reports its retail postpaid data ARPU at $16.30, which excludes wholesale and prepaid customers; VZW does not report this metric. Since 93% of VZW subscribers are retail postpaid, there is likely at most a .5 variation from the $13.84 figure, or $14.34. (In the two quarters where VZW also reported its retail data ARPU which excluded wholesale but included prepaid customers, the difference between them was .22). For this coveted subset, AT&T has the higher data ARPU.



    In addtion, note that in the two quarters following a new iPhone model release, the VZW retail postpaid churn rate moves upward - in 2007, it went from .85 to .96/.94 (11-13% increase) and more troubling for VZW, in 2008, it went from .83 to 1.03/1.05 (24-27% increase). And similarly note that in the two quarters following a new iPhone model release, AT&T has added from 1.17M to 1.693M new postpaid retail subscribers, but otherwise, it averages 800K. Might there be a relationship?



    All I'm saying is that AT&T knows what's keeping it in the game, and these emerging iPhone contenders will not significantly affect Apple's business model for the next iPhone.
  • Reply 64 of 71
    mark2005mark2005 Posts: 1,158member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    Nobody knows precisely what is in the agreement --- so it would be incorrect to say that a default price has been set for the next iphone. The next iphone could be extremely high end or an iphone nano --- we just don't know. So how would AT&T know the precise price point of the next iphone. For all we know, the agreement may not even have a minimum shippment numbers --- so AT&T can just buy a 100 iphone3's can sit on their ass for the next three years (while Apple can't sell them to another carrier in the US because of the exclusivity).



    You must think Apple is pretty dumb that it would sign a multi-year exclusive contract and then allow itself to get screwed. You and I might not know, but the next iPhone designs were pretty much locked in as of late last summer - don't you think Apple would've discussed possibilities with a couple of AT&T execs? (For comparison, the original iPhone contract was signed by the end of 2006 for release in June 2007. Even Palm worked out its exclusive contract with Sprint by early Jan 2009 for its Pre release in 1H09.)



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    The issue is that whether the next generation of iphone killers is "good enough" to force Apple to reduce their price margins ---



    Yes, that is the issue we're talking about. And I've been giving you reasons why it's a non-issue.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    When the next couple of quarters come out with more financial information, I will be talking about whether the RIM Storm, the Pre,... would be outselling the 3G iphone. As I said a year ago, a "iphone killer" doesn't actually have to beat the real iphone in sales in order to do a lot of damage to Apple's business models. Other carriers will begin to realize that a 1/2 assed copycat is selling decently --- and for the average consumers, "good enough" is really good enough.



    iPhone gets an out-sized subsidy from AT&T because it provides AT&T with an extra $30+ per month revenue stream for two years. So any fair comparison must be with phones that require the extra data plan.



    The LG Voyager, that you brought up previously, started out listed at $299 but after multiple decreases in price, sells today for $79 (updated Voyager Titanium) without ensuring the carrier gets additional revenue. So doesn't affect iPhone pricing.



    The RIM Storm does ensure the carrier gets $30/month, and it started out at $299 but in three months, has already come down in price to $99. Not sure who is eating the $200; retailer, VZW, or RIM? At this rate, doesn't look like it will impact iPhone pricing.



    The Palm Pre is planned for 1H09 so it may take more than a couple of quarters before there's anything to say. Hear from you again in October - by then the next iPhone will be out as well.
  • Reply 65 of 71
    hill60hill60 Posts: 6,992member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by surur View Post


    Some-one needs to bring the facts to the fanboys.



    If you want to talk about emotional disorder, look at crazies like iEye.



    Is that the same HTC that SonyEricsson dumped after they made the Experia then took the design and released the Touch HD.



    At least Gigabyte and Acer are stepping in to give them some competition on their own ground.
  • Reply 66 of 71
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hill60 View Post


    Is that the same HTC that SonyEricsson dumped after they made the Experia then took the design and released the Touch HD.



    At least Gigabyte and Acer are stepping in to give them some competition on their own ground.



    Its HTC yes, but your view of events are pretty strange.



    But yes, HTC makes the SE Xperia. They also make the Palm Pre and the T-Mobile G1.
  • Reply 67 of 71
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mark2005 View Post


    All I'm saying is that AT&T knows what's keeping it in the game, and these emerging iPhone contenders will not significantly affect Apple's business model for the next iPhone.



    All I am saying is that carriers around the world have seen that even though Verizon does not have the iphone on their line-ups --- it is not the end of the world for Verizon.



    Do you think that carriers in India will fight for the right to sell the next iphone (many iphone deals around the world are much shorter term than AT&T's 5 year term) --- when Vodafone India sells only 10000 iphones this time around?



    IMHO, this GREATLY affects Apple's business model because they can no longer pit one carrier against another and extract a king's ransom for the right to sell the iphone exclusively.
  • Reply 68 of 71
    mark2005mark2005 Posts: 1,158member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    All I am saying is that carriers around the world have seen that even though Verizon does not have the iphone on their line-ups --- it is not the end of the world for Verizon.



    Apple said they would sell 1% of all cell phones in 2008 (and they did). So why would anyone, other than you, expect iPhone on AT&T to be the end of the world for Verizon?



    You set up a strawman and knock it down. Silly.
  • Reply 69 of 71
    hill60hill60 Posts: 6,992member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by surur View Post


    Its HTC yes, but your view of events are pretty strange.



    But yes, HTC makes the SE Xperia. They also make the Palm Pre and the T-Mobile G1.



    Don't you mean the HTC Dream?



    History repeats.



    I wonder what they'll call their version of the Pre?
  • Reply 70 of 71
    Where is the Toshiba TG01? Looks like a viable competitor, but it isn't on the list.
  • Reply 71 of 71
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mark2005 View Post


    Apple said they would sell 1% of all cell phones in 2008 (and they did). So why would anyone, other than you, expect iPhone on AT&T to be the end of the world for Verizon?



    You set up a strawman and knock it down. Silly.



    1% of the world's cell phone means you need something like 5% in the first world. And 5% in the first world means 1/4 of that first world's smartphone market share. And that 1/4 market share means 30-40% of the data APRU.
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