I disagree. I think that even without a great new feature like 3D there is room for both Blu-Ray and the download model. The difference is that unlike the preceding eras, we'll see a significant splintering of product distribution. Not everyone is going to want to download content and a segment of the buying public does care about quality enough to want the pristine quality that download technology is certainly not, at this time, capable of delivering.
By long term I am thinking a couple decades or more. I think that BRD will be the last optical format for video in the way we currently know them. BR will have it's day as supreme to DVD, but I think by then digital downloads will be ahead of them both when that happens. That isn't to say that digital downloads will come anywhere close to the high-bitrate 1080p profiles that is currently be used in BR, but it will high enough that the convenience near immediate rental/purchase from a media extender to play technically HD quality video will be strong enough for the majority. I would wager that a good deal will have a BR player, too.
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On the computer front, Blu-Ray's superior storage capacity will make it the obvious choice over DVD. We will, after all, be working with progressively more massive files as the HD Era kicks into high gear.
But optical media, or any capacity is slower to read and more costly than HDD-based physical media. Even flash drives will get to a point that they can rival BR media in cost per GB with the slower, large flash storage types. Then there is the issue of writing to optical media, which is too often problematic and very, very slow compared to other media types. I have had so many errors when I burn my beta OS discs that I stopped testing them until I found a way to install them with separate HDD partitions. Now, that isnt' to say that optical media doesn't have its place. They aren't susceptible to EM so they are ideal for certain types backups, but I don't see a need for them if faster, cheaper methods are available in the future.
PS: I also think we'll see the removable of internal optical drives in the next major revision of Mac notebooks, with other vendors following suit later, albeit not on their $400 models.
I have a new Mac Mini and have discovered that you CAN NOT play DRM-protected HD content from the iTunes store. I bought an itunes HD copy of a Smallville episode and discovered this problem. You will get an error message saying that your display is not HDCP-compliant and will not play.
I am connected to a non-Apple DVI monitor that is not HDCP compliant. However, from what I understand to be HDCP compliant you must have an HDMI connection - and this is something that Mac Mini (nor any other Mac except AppleTV) supports!!
It is interesting that they make such a big push for HD content and not be able to play HD content on their newest systems.
Anyone else have this problem?
From what I understand, the new minis with the nvidia chipset support HDCP whereas the previous minis did not. HDCP works over HDMI or DVI, so I don't think that is your problem. If, as you say, you are using a monitor that is not HDCP compliant, then that is likely the issue. When I first got my apple TV I had it connected to a Viewsonic monitor and everything looked great until I came across this same issue. Anyone have any luck yet with mac mini playing HDCP content to their tv? This is the one thing that has kept me from using one as a home theater pc and I'm hoping the new ones work.
By long term I am thinking a couple decades or more. I think that BRD will be the last optical format for video in the way we currently know them. BR will have it's day as supreme to DVD, but I think by then digital downloads will be ahead of them both when that happens. That isn't to say that digital downloads will come anywhere close to the high-bitrate 1080p profiles that is currently be used in BR, but it will high enough that the convenience near immediate rental/purchase from a media extender to play technically HD quality video will be strong enough for the majority. I would wager that a good deal will have a BR player, too.
It is difficult to argue digital downloads because most consumers are not going to accept what is available now. AppleTV for iTunes movies, Playstation for Sony movies, one not working with the other. Consumers are not going to accept that as a media replacement. How about some standards so all players work with downloaded movies? And how about the folks making money off movie sales kicking in to pay for some of the much needed movie downloads bandwidth?
3D will never take off in the home environment purely because so many people wear glasses. Even contact lens wearers usually wear their glasses at home. And as a glasses wearer I know how much it sucks having to wear two pairs of glasses to watch a movie.
It's the same reason I don't go to IMAX movies, the screen is too big and most of it disappears out of my field of view.
There is also the problem of my friend who only has one eye. He can't watch 3D movies even while wearing the glasses.
Comments
I disagree. I think that even without a great new feature like 3D there is room for both Blu-Ray and the download model. The difference is that unlike the preceding eras, we'll see a significant splintering of product distribution. Not everyone is going to want to download content and a segment of the buying public does care about quality enough to want the pristine quality that download technology is certainly not, at this time, capable of delivering.
By long term I am thinking a couple decades or more. I think that BRD will be the last optical format for video in the way we currently know them. BR will have it's day as supreme to DVD, but I think by then digital downloads will be ahead of them both when that happens. That isn't to say that digital downloads will come anywhere close to the high-bitrate 1080p profiles that is currently be used in BR, but it will high enough that the convenience near immediate rental/purchase from a media extender to play technically HD quality video will be strong enough for the majority. I would wager that a good deal will have a BR player, too.
On the computer front, Blu-Ray's superior storage capacity will make it the obvious choice over DVD. We will, after all, be working with progressively more massive files as the HD Era kicks into high gear.
But optical media, or any capacity is slower to read and more costly than HDD-based physical media. Even flash drives will get to a point that they can rival BR media in cost per GB with the slower, large flash storage types. Then there is the issue of writing to optical media, which is too often problematic and very, very slow compared to other media types. I have had so many errors when I burn my beta OS discs that I stopped testing them until I found a way to install them with separate HDD partitions. Now, that isnt' to say that optical media doesn't have its place. They aren't susceptible to EM so they are ideal for certain types backups, but I don't see a need for them if faster, cheaper methods are available in the future.
PS: I also think we'll see the removable of internal optical drives in the next major revision of Mac notebooks, with other vendors following suit later, albeit not on their $400 models.
Beware new (early 2009) Mac Mini users-
I have a new Mac Mini and have discovered that you CAN NOT play DRM-protected HD content from the iTunes store. I bought an itunes HD copy of a Smallville episode and discovered this problem. You will get an error message saying that your display is not HDCP-compliant and will not play.
I am connected to a non-Apple DVI monitor that is not HDCP compliant. However, from what I understand to be HDCP compliant you must have an HDMI connection - and this is something that Mac Mini (nor any other Mac except AppleTV) supports!!
It is interesting that they make such a big push for HD content and not be able to play HD content on their newest systems.
Anyone else have this problem?
From what I understand, the new minis with the nvidia chipset support HDCP whereas the previous minis did not. HDCP works over HDMI or DVI, so I don't think that is your problem. If, as you say, you are using a monitor that is not HDCP compliant, then that is likely the issue. When I first got my apple TV I had it connected to a Viewsonic monitor and everything looked great until I came across this same issue. Anyone have any luck yet with mac mini playing HDCP content to their tv? This is the one thing that has kept me from using one as a home theater pc and I'm hoping the new ones work.
By long term I am thinking a couple decades or more. I think that BRD will be the last optical format for video in the way we currently know them. BR will have it's day as supreme to DVD, but I think by then digital downloads will be ahead of them both when that happens. That isn't to say that digital downloads will come anywhere close to the high-bitrate 1080p profiles that is currently be used in BR, but it will high enough that the convenience near immediate rental/purchase from a media extender to play technically HD quality video will be strong enough for the majority. I would wager that a good deal will have a BR player, too.
It is difficult to argue digital downloads because most consumers are not going to accept what is available now. AppleTV for iTunes movies, Playstation for Sony movies, one not working with the other. Consumers are not going to accept that as a media replacement. How about some standards so all players work with downloaded movies? And how about the folks making money off movie sales kicking in to pay for some of the much needed movie downloads bandwidth?
It's the same reason I don't go to IMAX movies, the screen is too big and most of it disappears out of my field of view.
There is also the problem of my friend who only has one eye. He can't watch 3D movies even while wearing the glasses.