It's impossible to be both an Apple customer and a shareholder. First they complain that Apple's prices are too high for customers. But when Apple lowers prices for customers, then they complain about reduced margins and revenues driving down stocks.
It's interesting though that Apple has been predicting margins well below the actual numbers for quite a while now. In fact, as they had been predicting drops in margins, they have gone up. This was even before the economic problems that some of us were saying existed at the beginning of 2008, when we were saying that we were in the beginning of a recession (though we were soundly knocked down for saying that then).
Mel, what's your opinion on near-to-medium-term economic conditions? Are you in the 'hyperinflation' camp? I'm very concerned with the currency flooding our economy right now and personally believe we could again be looking at 1970's level inflation.
I think the analysts are finally catching up in a reasonable way; the business practices for Apple are fairly well established in their current markets and basing future returns on past experience is reasonable for the moment. When Apple releases the next game-changer, it will take analysts some time to get on board with the dramatic shifts again.
As for the whole subsidized phone thing... there isn't much room for AT&T to further subsidize. Recall their Q3 08 earnings call, and the impact that iPhone subsidies had on their bottom line. They aren't going to push that hard right now, but rather wait until the initial rush has been satisfied and cave after that. By all accounts, they have another winner on their hands and why wouldn't they try and milk it for all it is worth?!
For myself though, I'm taking some of the Apple stock off the table on the next rally, and I am not buying a new iPhone until I can get it unlocked for international travel and subsidized by AT&T. If I can't get that, then I will ditch the smart phones altogether for a while. As someone who uses my iPhone a lot, I can't justify owning a smartphone that needs to just get switched off when I travel, so my phone bill isn't bigger than my rent...
For myself though, I'm taking some of the Apple stock off the table on the next rally, and I am not buying a new iPhone until I can get it unlocked for international travel and subsidized by AT&T. If I can't get that, then I will ditch the smart phones altogether for a while. As someone who uses my iPhone a lot, I can't justify owning a smartphone that needs to just get switched off when I travel, so my phone bill isn't bigger than my rent...
Guess if AAPL hits $200 again (or comes closer to it) I'll sell my entire lot of AAPL... this market is killin' me.
Why hasn't there been any ChiPhone announcements. I'd seen an article stating that Apple was going to bring the iPhone to China Unicom once their 3G network had been rolled out in May. I'd seen reference to this in some China news and really believed this was a done deal. Plus the fact that Foxconn was writing some apps for the iPhone so it could be used over there right away.
I guess somebody jumped the gun in making the announcement on the China Unicom site. Those Chinese carriers must be hard people to bargain with considering the U.S. is giving the Chinese a number of manufacturing contracts.
I have my doubts that the iPhone is going sell all that well in China if it's carrier fees are too high for people to afford. If people are complaining in the U.S. then I guess it'll be worse in China. I'll just have to wait and see.
It's impossible to be both an Apple customer and a shareholder. First they complain that Apple's prices are too high for customers. But when Apple lowers prices for customers, then they complain about reduced margins and revenues driving down stocks.
Mel, what's your opinion on near-to-medium-term economic conditions? Are you in the 'hyperinflation' camp? I'm very concerned with the currency flooding our economy right now and personally believe we could again be looking at 1970's level inflation.
In the 70's we had "stagflation". That was very much because of the oil embargo and the subsequent raising of oil prices by 400% in a short time. That was hard to get out of. The economy needed time to adjust. We also had just gotten out of Vietnam which cost a good deal of money also, and was a cause of some inflation.. Then right before the end of the decade, we had the Iran crisis which shook our confidence, and prolonged the recession.
That was several shocks one after the other. Very unusual.
Today, it's different. We're caught in a mess, but I think that we'll slog our way out by 2010 sometime, hopefully by the end of the first quarter. but it will take almost another year until we're growing to any extent again.
Plus, after most recessions, there's an aftershock that lasts for about 3 months. Exactly when that will happen depends on how we come out of it. If we come out slowly, we'll likely drop back a bit like that. If we come out like gangbusters, we may miss it entirely.
Comments
Truly. Based on their past cluelessness, it could be a sell signal.
Moof!
May 25, 2009: http://www.reuters.com/article/COMSR...090526?sp=true
She missed all of AAPL's move up. This example should be instructive to those who advocate
trusting "experts".
So, the question now is... whose homework has she been copying?
It's interesting though that Apple has been predicting margins well below the actual numbers for quite a while now. In fact, as they had been predicting drops in margins, they have gone up. This was even before the economic problems that some of us were saying existed at the beginning of 2008, when we were saying that we were in the beginning of a recession (though we were soundly knocked down for saying that then).
Mel, what's your opinion on near-to-medium-term economic conditions? Are you in the 'hyperinflation' camp? I'm very concerned with the currency flooding our economy right now and personally believe we could again be looking at 1970's level inflation.
As for the whole subsidized phone thing... there isn't much room for AT&T to further subsidize. Recall their Q3 08 earnings call, and the impact that iPhone subsidies had on their bottom line. They aren't going to push that hard right now, but rather wait until the initial rush has been satisfied and cave after that. By all accounts, they have another winner on their hands and why wouldn't they try and milk it for all it is worth?!
For myself though, I'm taking some of the Apple stock off the table on the next rally, and I am not buying a new iPhone until I can get it unlocked for international travel and subsidized by AT&T. If I can't get that, then I will ditch the smart phones altogether for a while. As someone who uses my iPhone a lot, I can't justify owning a smartphone that needs to just get switched off when I travel, so my phone bill isn't bigger than my rent...
Moof!
is that you, Clarus?
is that you, Clarus?
Ah, someone still remembers!
For myself though, I'm taking some of the Apple stock off the table on the next rally, and I am not buying a new iPhone until I can get it unlocked for international travel and subsidized by AT&T. If I can't get that, then I will ditch the smart phones altogether for a while. As someone who uses my iPhone a lot, I can't justify owning a smartphone that needs to just get switched off when I travel, so my phone bill isn't bigger than my rent...
Guess if AAPL hits $200 again (or comes closer to it) I'll sell my entire lot of AAPL... this market is killin' me.
I guess somebody jumped the gun in making the announcement on the China Unicom site. Those Chinese carriers must be hard people to bargain with considering the U.S. is giving the Chinese a number of manufacturing contracts.
I have my doubts that the iPhone is going sell all that well in China if it's carrier fees are too high for people to afford. If people are complaining in the U.S. then I guess it'll be worse in China. I'll just have to wait and see.
It's impossible to be both an Apple customer and a shareholder. First they complain that Apple's prices are too high for customers. But when Apple lowers prices for customers, then they complain about reduced margins and revenues driving down stocks.
I don't.
Mel, what's your opinion on near-to-medium-term economic conditions? Are you in the 'hyperinflation' camp? I'm very concerned with the currency flooding our economy right now and personally believe we could again be looking at 1970's level inflation.
In the 70's we had "stagflation". That was very much because of the oil embargo and the subsequent raising of oil prices by 400% in a short time. That was hard to get out of. The economy needed time to adjust. We also had just gotten out of Vietnam which cost a good deal of money also, and was a cause of some inflation.. Then right before the end of the decade, we had the Iran crisis which shook our confidence, and prolonged the recession.
That was several shocks one after the other. Very unusual.
Today, it's different. We're caught in a mess, but I think that we'll slog our way out by 2010 sometime, hopefully by the end of the first quarter. but it will take almost another year until we're growing to any extent again.
Plus, after most recessions, there's an aftershock that lasts for about 3 months. Exactly when that will happen depends on how we come out of it. If we come out slowly, we'll likely drop back a bit like that. If we come out like gangbusters, we may miss it entirely.
I don't.
Neither do I. We're doing the impossible!