I think you're missing several points on the 3D games thing. First off, the developers would be alienating 40 million consumers in favor of 1-2 million. But, some developers will do it to simply put out a 3GS "only" app. It will be a novel hit since all the 3GS users will want to show off their phone. However there are even more roadblocks to such apps.
Money is a large issue when it comes to developing advanced games as the ones you're talking about. Games like that take almost a year to make (see PSP and DS games) and once they're made they cost $30-40. That's a huge jump over what we have in the app store now. We're so used to $5-15 games that $30-40 seems rather steep.
So here's what you have working against you when creating a 3GS app:
1. Development costs are much higher
2. Development time is much longer, new iPhone by the time the best ones come out?
3. Your price in the app store is much higher
4. Your consumers base is much, much smaller (1/40th the size!)
I disagree with almost everything you've said.
first of all, Apple will sell a good 20 million 3Gs's the next 12 month, and about 6 to 8 million iPod Touch's, which will no doubt be upgraded later this year. That's far in excess of the 1 to 2 million that is difficult to understand that you're using as a number.
In addition, more than one article has stated that many programs written to take advantage of the 3Gs's power will have a lessor version that will work fine for the older machines. It's possible that just like PC games, you will be able to disable features in rendering that will allow a less powerful device to run it. People are used to this. It's not a big deal, and will be incentive to some people yo upgrade.
I understand what you're saying, but I don't know what that has to do with it. This is a much improved machine. It's not in any holding pattern, waiting for some miracle processor from Apple. It's an evolutionary product, and as such, it's done very well.
Next years' will be better.
You don't know that. I've already read about the 3D games that we'll be seeing, though not by name. It only takes a handful of cutting edge games to move the products to a new level. That's true of any gaming platform.
With this upgrade, Apple likely has enough oomp for multiprocessing if they want it. likely, they don't want it yet, because they want to come out with some framework that will enable it to be better than elsewhere. They have their priorities, as they had said about C/C/Paste last year.
Every new generation will be much faster and have more hardware features until the situation matures, when advances will slow down. We won't get double the processing power forever, perhaps for one or two more generations.
You can wait forever. I waited for two features. Two features I said I would wait for since we had out first discussions right after Apple announced the phone. That was 3G and supported native apps. GPS was a bonus I wanted, but wouldn't wait for.
The new 3Gs is an amazing machine. Much more so than the 3G, esp with the new OS.
Next year, you will hear of the possibility of even more amazing things with it, are you going to wait again? I don't recall now, did you say you have an older iPhone, or not? If so, then waiting makes more sense. We will likely wait, as we bought ours in late August, though my daughter will get the new one when she goes to school in London this summer (good excuse for her!).
If not, then unless you're waiting for a contract to end it just wastes another year.
I'm not waiting for my contract to end. I do have a 3g. I can afford an upgrade to the 3gs at an unsubsidized price. It's not a question of whether I can afford it, but whether I am willing to pay for it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
I disagree with almost everything you've said.
first of all, Apple will sell a good 20 million 3Gs's the next 12 month, and about 6 to 8 million iPod Touch's, which will no doubt be upgraded later this year. That's far in excess of the 1 to 2 million that is difficult to understand that you're using as a number.
In addition, more than one article has stated that many programs written to take advantage of the 3Gs's power will have a lessor version that will work fine for the older machines. It's possible that just like PC games, you will be able to disable features in rendering that will allow a less powerful device to run it. People are used to this. It's not a big deal, and will be incentive to some people yo upgrade.
You're proving my point. First Apple will sell more iPod touch's than iPhones. It's cheaper and w/o a contract. The new iPod touch with the new hardware won't be coming out 'til September. You're citing a 12 month period. By then the new hardware will already be released which is what this topic is centered around. You will more than like see the A9 for reasons cited previously. More than likely background tasks will be supported and it will have Open CL support. They will have had a full year to catch up with some of the best features of the Pre (multitasking) for OS 4.0.
Most developers are going to develop for all iPhone OS devices and not just the 3gs. They are going to want to maximize profits. A perfect example of this is Mac gaming. Windows gets the games because they are on more computers. It's may be true that some options like renering could be turned off for older hardware but it's doubtful. That's a very un-Apple move to constantly have to mess around with options. They like to keep everything as simple as possible.
You're proving my point. First Apple will sell more iPod touch's than iPhones. It's cheaper and w/o a contract. The new iPod touch with the new hardware won't be coming out 'til September. You're citing a 12 month period. By then the new hardware will already be released which is what this topic is centered around. You will more than like see the A9 for reasons cited previously. More than likely background tasks will be supported and it will have Open CL support. They will have had a full year to catch up with some of the best features of the Pre (multitasking) for OS 4.0.
Not following this. First, "sell more Touches than iPhones"? That would be a huge change in the market, why would we expect that to happen?
Also, can't figure out your timeline. The Touch comes out in September and...... ? But the iPhone 4.0 OS comes out a year from now? And those things impact developer enthusiasm for writing to the 3G S hardware because........?
first of all, Apple will sell a good 20 million 3Gs's the next 12 month, and about 6 to 8 million iPod Touch's, which will no doubt be upgraded later this year. That's far in excess of the 1 to 2 million that is difficult to understand that you're using as a number.
In addition, more than one article has stated that many programs written to take advantage of the 3Gs's power will have a lessor version that will work fine for the older machines. It's possible that just like PC games, you will be able to disable features in rendering that will allow a less powerful device to run it. People are used to this. It's not a big deal, and will be incentive to some people yo upgrade.
20 million 3GS's? You realize that's more than iPhone and iPhone 3G have sold combine in 2 years! Where did you get that number?
Apple just reported they've sold 40,000,000 iPhones and iPod touches....TOTAL! Where does 20 million in 12 months come from? That sounds absolutely ridiculous.
Not to mention it's what will sell in ~9 months. After that, devs will be looking at the new dual core iPhone.
Quote:
I don’t agree with any of that.
1. It’s still using the same Xcode.
2. It may be longer, but only because the developer has more options available to them. It may also be shorter as the developer no longer has to spend extra time shoehorning the app into older hardware to compete with newer apps that are utilizing the latest HW.
3.Still using the same Xcode. There are potential reasons why it could could more but nothing that states it will higher specifically for coding for the new HW. In fact, it’ll be cheaper than coding for both the new and old.
4. How you get 1/40 the size? Is that because there are 40M iPhone OS X devices out there now? how do you get one million as of today or as of one month from now. How about 6 months from now or one year from now when this new HW is the standard for future-forward app development?
I'd like to see you use the same Xcode, take the same amount of time and money and come out with a game as complete as Final Fantasy VII: Crisis Core or any other hit PSP game. Xcode and Cocoa can not match up to the engines used by professional video game designers. Not to mention those engines take a few years to develop.
Sure plenty of run of mill apps will be created for the 3GS just like all the apps in the store now. But as for these PSP quality apps, I have serious doubts.
Let's also take into account the touch hasn't been updated yet, and Apple's free iPod touch program is in effect this summer. Also the 8gb 3G has been dropped to a more attractive price point.
20 million 3GS's? You realize that's more than iPhone and iPhone 3G have sold combine in 2 years! Where did you get that number?
Apple just reported they've sold 40,000,000 iPhones and iPod touches....TOTAL! Where does 20 million in 12 months come from? That sounds absolutely ridiculous.
Not to mention it's what will sell in ~9 months. After that, devs will be looking at the new dual core iPhone.
That chart doesn't seem quite right, didn't they sell more than 10M iPhones in the first year of sales? Also, it's missing at least one quarter of sales data. I thought they sold in the range of 15M in the second year. With declining growth, that could mean 20M over the next year. I need to find sources for that information.
But if I went with your number, 40M iPhone & Touches for two years of sales should mean it shouldn't be hard to sell more than 20M of iPhones & Touches over the next year.
That chart doesn't seem quite right, didn't they sell more than 10M iPhones in the first year of sales? Also, it's missing at least one quarter of sales data. I thought they sold in the range of 15M in the second year. With declining growth, that could mean 20M over the next year. I need to find sources for that information.
But if I went with your number, 40M iPhone & Touches for two years of sales should mean it shouldn't be hard to sell more than 20M of iPhones & Touches over the next year.
It was 6M, but remember it was only the US for the first few months, only handful of countries were added that year and it was EDGE.
That chart actually hurts his argument as it shows over 11M iPhones sold in the first 6 months since the 3G launch. While the number won't double with the expected upgrade the greater appeal of the new iPhone 3GS and v3.0 OS, and the addition with about 15(?) countries since last year should help promote sales.
That doesn't even include the iPod Touch, which I believe has gotten close to overshadowing the iPhone in total unit sales.
You're proving my point. First Apple will sell more iPod touch's than iPhones. It's cheaper and w/o a contract. The new iPod touch with the new hardware won't be coming out 'til September. You're citing a 12 month period. By then the new hardware will already be released which is what this topic is centered around. You will more than like see the A9 for reasons cited previously. More than likely background tasks will be supported and it will have Open CL support. They will have had a full year to catch up with some of the best features of the Pre (multitasking) for OS 4.0.
What? Where did you figure that from? Apple will sell iPhones at a rate that's almost 2:1 over i PodTouch sales, just as they have been doing.
Quote:
Most developers are going to develop for all iPhone OS devices and not just the 3gs. They are going to want to maximize profits. A perfect example of this is Mac gaming. Windows gets the games because they are on more computers. It's may be true that some options like renering could be turned off for older hardware but it's doubtful. That's a very un-Apple move to constantly have to mess around with options. They like to keep everything as simple as possible.
Most developers will do what most developers always do. They will look to whom they think will buy most of their product, and spend mot of their developmental bucks there. That will mean the 3Gs. In addition, as most developers do, they will find a way to allow their program work acceptably on older models as well.
Apple won't be messing around with the options. It's already been showed that the new graphics chips can work with the same fixed structure the current 2G and 3G models have for that very reason.
As far as the numbers go, the 40 million is for two years of iPhone and iPod touch sales. The 20 million is a minimum number for iPhone sales over the next 12 months. hopefully, they will sell more, but we are in a recession.
It was 6M, but remember it was only the US for the first few months, only handful of countries were added that year and it was EDGE.
That chart actually hurts his argument as it shows over 11M iPhones sold in the first 6 months since the 3G launch. While the number won't double with the expected upgrade the greater appeal of the new iPhone 3GS and v3.0 OS, and the addition with about 15(?) countries since last year should help promote sales.
That doesn't even include the iPod Touch, which I believe has gotten close to overshadowing the iPhone in total unit sales.
iPhone sales substantially outrun iTouch sales.
And yes, iPhone sales will increase at a good rate. Not doubling in the same regions as now maybe, but coming close to it. And if the China deal finally goes through as it seems it will, then all bets are off.
I expect to see at least 20 million iPhone sales in the next 12 months
If we see good, but not too highly priced game controllers, then that will sell a lot of phones. The combination of the "s" and "3" is very desirable. The 32 GB will allow those increased functions to have more room to breath.
And if we can somehow boot our Mac off the flash as we now can from a flash drive, well...
I wouldn't be surprised if iPhone sales surge once more with the recent price cuts.
The $99 price for a 3G iPhone puts the iPhone into a whole new market. While the plan is still too pricey for some consumers, the price of the hardware is now cheap enough that even non-gadget-gurus are interested. Rather than seeing sales leveling off, I'm anticipating them to accelerate for the foreseeable future.
And yes, iPhone sales will increase at a good rate. Not doubling in the same regions as now maybe, but coming close to it. And if the China deal finally goes through as it seems it will, then all bets are off.
I expect to see at least 20 million iPhone sales in the next 12 months
If we see good, but not too highly priced game controllers, then that will sell a lot of phones. The combination of the "s" and "3" is very desirable. The 32 GB will allow those increased functions to have more room to breath.
And if we can somehow boot our Mac off the flash as we now can from a flash drive, well...
I agree with everything you say, expect I wouldn?t call the iPhone sales to be substantially outrun the iPhone, but that may be a PoV.
As of the march 17th event they announced that they had sold 30M units running iPhone OS X. Of those 17M were iPhones, leaving 13M as iPod Touches. I can?t find the article, but if I recall correctly that means that iPod Touch sales had done quite a bit of catch up in 6 months since the release of the G2 iPod Touch in September. Of course, that is bound to happen and even with the free iPod Touch for back to school this next quarter should be dominated by the iPhone, but I thin that the next quarter may actually be trumped by the iPhone in actual unit sales for Apple?s 1st and 2nd quarter for 2010.
Regardless, 20M for the iPhone is the minimum I?d speculate, especially when it did over 11M units in the first two quarters of sales since it?s launch last year. Anecdotally speaking, I know a lot of people buy their first iPhone this year.
(I?ll keep looking for the info that showed the Touch growth rate increasing faster than the iPhone)
That should be taken with a grain of sale as we know that many people were waiting for the iPhone at that point.
But back on point, developers will build for the new iPhone because of the newer HW and this will get even more attractive when the next Touch gets the new HW, too. I really don?t understand eamer8912?s point that using better HW is a not a good thing.
That should be taken with a grain of sale as we know that many people were waiting for the iPhone at that point.
But back on point, developers will build for the new iPhone because of the newer HW and this will get even more attractive when the next Touch gets the new HW, too. I really don’t understand eamer8912’s point that using better HW is a not a good thing.
It seems sales have picked up. But the manager of the SoHo store, whom I know from our Mac User Group meetings there, has told me that iPhone sales are well ahead of iTouch sales. I suppose that store could be special.
It seems sales have picked up. But the manager of the SoHo store, whom I know from our Mac User Group meetings there, has told me that iPhone sales are well ahead of iTouch sales. I suppose that store could be special.
Touch is obviously overpriced. In Europe customer always has the option of only 12 months iPhone contract. This matters a lot.
Touch is obviously overpriced. In Europe customer always has the option of only 12 months iPhone contract. This matters a lot.
Except for the time between the iPhone and Touch updates, I think the Touch is underpriced.
The difference is Touch doesn't have any kind of subsidy, but it's largely an iPhone without phone / cellular data radios and the camera. Maybe those are very expensive parts but I think it was pretty well priced being a media playing PDA.
Except for the time between the iPhone and Touch updates, I think the Touch is underpriced.
The difference is Touch doesn't have any kind of subsidy, but it's largely an iPhone without phone / cellular data radios and the camera. Maybe those are very expensive parts but I think it was pretty well priced being a media playing PDA.
I did a little research on this. Maybe, "overpriced" isn't the term, which describes exactly what happens. It's just a part of truth. Yes, unsibsidized iPhone costs more at the time of purchase. But look, after just one year of having been tethered to a carrier you get that same iPod Touch and the phone, two gadgets, in fact. Then, there're precisely two things about iPod Touch vs iPhone in Europe:
Touch is more expensive in comparable use, remaining still limited in quite a few aspects
Psychologically, iPod Touch is more expensive than subsidized iPhone at the time of buy.
I compare below the approximate costs of iPhone and Touch over the first year, having in mind, surely, the typical iPhone use:
I did a little research on this. Maybe, "overpriced" isn't the term, which describes exactly what happens. It's just a part of truth. Yes, unsibsidized iPhone costs more at the time of purchase. But look, after just one year of having been tethered to a carrier you get that same iPod Touch and the phone, two gadgets, in fact. Then, there're precisely two things about iPod Touch vs iPhone in Europe:
Touch is more expensive in comparable use, remaining still limited in quite a few aspects
Psychologically, iPod Touch is more expensive than subsidized iPhone at the time of buy.
I compare below the approximate costs of iPhone and Touch over the first year, having in mind, surely, the typical iPhone use:
That's a lot of hot spot time. Three hours a day? Also, what form of TV are you talking about? I thought Apple was not allowing TV apps on the app store.
One thing to keep in mind is that not everyone's use or circumstances is the same, your chart might be valid for you, but not everyone. Most of the apps that I have would work fine without a constant internet connection. If the iPhone makes more sense to you, then that's fine, but a chart proving once and for all that the Touch is too expensive doesn't mean anything except for people who would use it in a similar way as you. Even if iPhone is selling better, it's not as if the Touch is selling like dirt. By your numbers the Touch shouldn't be selling at all, but if you are going to use your chart, it looks like you're going to complain that it's overpriced even if it were free.
I see you make a ton of comments, like 15 million sales here and iPhone more substantial there. Do you have any links? at all? I see you making a lot of opinionated comments like devs will focus on the 3GS for developing, because that's where the apps will sell.
Why is that? Are 3g owners going to stop buying apps?
Do you have any evidence to your opinion?
Edit: You know what, never mind. This debate has gotten so far off topic. We started back with multi-core iPhones in 2010!
Three hours a day of web surfing is the average time, having been reported for europeans some years ago (in 2005). I believe, it's even longer now. The duration of my personal moderate use of iPhone internet connection nears that number of hours. And I suspect, many surf much longer, than I do. And all those applications: YouTube, TV, TV/movie guides, weather, gas prices, twitters, facebooks, radio streams etc. All that works over internet. I think 3 hours is rather realistic approximation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM
Also, what form of TV are you talking about? I thought Apple was not allowing TV apps on the iPhone.
It should be so in States. It's not Apple, it's carriers who ban TV streaming. But in Europe we do watch mobile TV on iPhone over 3G. (And Mel meant London from the beginning, didn't he?). There're lots of applications from different vendors. 0.3h = 20 min it's the time span of regular TV news. Folks hang on MTVs for hours. The problem is all those applications - though being said to be capable of - refuse to work over WiFi.
Three hours a day of web surfing is the average time, having been reported for europeans some years ago (in 2005). I believe, it's even longer now. The duration of my personal moderate use of iPhone internet connection nears that number of hours. And I suspect, many surf much longer, than I do. And all those applications: YouTube, TV, TV/movie guides, weather, gas prices, twitters, facebooks, radio streams etc. All that works over internet. I think 3 hours is rather realistic approximation.
It should be so in States. It's not Apple, it's carriers who ban TV streaming. But in Europe we do watch mobile TV on iPhone over 3G. (And Mel meant London from the beginning, didn't he?). There're lots of applications from different vendors. 0.3h = 20 min it's the time span of regular TV news. Folks hang on MTVs for hours. The problem is all those applications - though being said to be capable of - refuse to work over WiFi.
3 hours a day of iPhone usage? Ouch!
The iPhone is great. But I if needed to use it for that length of time, i'd be seeking a more efficient tool. Well, maybe not if it were just for entertainment on a commuter train. But if trying to actually accomplish something online for 3 hours a day, a smart phone definitely isn't the most efficient tool. Except for special circumstances, which do exist, that amount of daily usage seems like a colossal waste of time. A more full featured computer would allow one to do so much more with their life due to all the time savings.
Then again, some people send hundreds of text messages a day, so what do I know?
Comments
I think you're missing several points on the 3D games thing. First off, the developers would be alienating 40 million consumers in favor of 1-2 million. But, some developers will do it to simply put out a 3GS "only" app. It will be a novel hit since all the 3GS users will want to show off their phone. However there are even more roadblocks to such apps.
Money is a large issue when it comes to developing advanced games as the ones you're talking about. Games like that take almost a year to make (see PSP and DS games) and once they're made they cost $30-40. That's a huge jump over what we have in the app store now. We're so used to $5-15 games that $30-40 seems rather steep.
So here's what you have working against you when creating a 3GS app:
1. Development costs are much higher
2. Development time is much longer, new iPhone by the time the best ones come out?
3. Your price in the app store is much higher
4. Your consumers base is much, much smaller (1/40th the size!)
I disagree with almost everything you've said.
first of all, Apple will sell a good 20 million 3Gs's the next 12 month, and about 6 to 8 million iPod Touch's, which will no doubt be upgraded later this year. That's far in excess of the 1 to 2 million that is difficult to understand that you're using as a number.
In addition, more than one article has stated that many programs written to take advantage of the 3Gs's power will have a lessor version that will work fine for the older machines. It's possible that just like PC games, you will be able to disable features in rendering that will allow a less powerful device to run it. People are used to this. It's not a big deal, and will be incentive to some people yo upgrade.
I understand what you're saying, but I don't know what that has to do with it. This is a much improved machine. It's not in any holding pattern, waiting for some miracle processor from Apple. It's an evolutionary product, and as such, it's done very well.
Next years' will be better.
You don't know that. I've already read about the 3D games that we'll be seeing, though not by name. It only takes a handful of cutting edge games to move the products to a new level. That's true of any gaming platform.
With this upgrade, Apple likely has enough oomp for multiprocessing if they want it. likely, they don't want it yet, because they want to come out with some framework that will enable it to be better than elsewhere. They have their priorities, as they had said about C/C/Paste last year.
Every new generation will be much faster and have more hardware features until the situation matures, when advances will slow down. We won't get double the processing power forever, perhaps for one or two more generations.
You can wait forever. I waited for two features. Two features I said I would wait for since we had out first discussions right after Apple announced the phone. That was 3G and supported native apps. GPS was a bonus I wanted, but wouldn't wait for.
The new 3Gs is an amazing machine. Much more so than the 3G, esp with the new OS.
Next year, you will hear of the possibility of even more amazing things with it, are you going to wait again? I don't recall now, did you say you have an older iPhone, or not? If so, then waiting makes more sense. We will likely wait, as we bought ours in late August, though my daughter will get the new one when she goes to school in London this summer (good excuse for her!
If not, then unless you're waiting for a contract to end it just wastes another year.
I'm not waiting for my contract to end. I do have a 3g. I can afford an upgrade to the 3gs at an unsubsidized price. It's not a question of whether I can afford it, but whether I am willing to pay for it.
I disagree with almost everything you've said.
first of all, Apple will sell a good 20 million 3Gs's the next 12 month, and about 6 to 8 million iPod Touch's, which will no doubt be upgraded later this year. That's far in excess of the 1 to 2 million that is difficult to understand that you're using as a number.
In addition, more than one article has stated that many programs written to take advantage of the 3Gs's power will have a lessor version that will work fine for the older machines. It's possible that just like PC games, you will be able to disable features in rendering that will allow a less powerful device to run it. People are used to this. It's not a big deal, and will be incentive to some people yo upgrade.
You're proving my point. First Apple will sell more iPod touch's than iPhones. It's cheaper and w/o a contract. The new iPod touch with the new hardware won't be coming out 'til September. You're citing a 12 month period. By then the new hardware will already be released which is what this topic is centered around. You will more than like see the A9 for reasons cited previously. More than likely background tasks will be supported and it will have Open CL support. They will have had a full year to catch up with some of the best features of the Pre (multitasking) for OS 4.0.
Most developers are going to develop for all iPhone OS devices and not just the 3gs. They are going to want to maximize profits. A perfect example of this is Mac gaming. Windows gets the games because they are on more computers. It's may be true that some options like renering could be turned off for older hardware but it's doubtful. That's a very un-Apple move to constantly have to mess around with options. They like to keep everything as simple as possible.
50% increase in clock speed
doubling of ram
That's pretty significant in my book. So significant in fact that I doubt it can be repeated every year.
You're proving my point. First Apple will sell more iPod touch's than iPhones. It's cheaper and w/o a contract. The new iPod touch with the new hardware won't be coming out 'til September. You're citing a 12 month period. By then the new hardware will already be released which is what this topic is centered around. You will more than like see the A9 for reasons cited previously. More than likely background tasks will be supported and it will have Open CL support. They will have had a full year to catch up with some of the best features of the Pre (multitasking) for OS 4.0.
Not following this. First, "sell more Touches than iPhones"? That would be a huge change in the market, why would we expect that to happen?
Also, can't figure out your timeline. The Touch comes out in September and...... ? But the iPhone 4.0 OS comes out a year from now? And those things impact developer enthusiasm for writing to the 3G S hardware because........?
I disagree with almost everything you've said.
first of all, Apple will sell a good 20 million 3Gs's the next 12 month, and about 6 to 8 million iPod Touch's, which will no doubt be upgraded later this year. That's far in excess of the 1 to 2 million that is difficult to understand that you're using as a number.
In addition, more than one article has stated that many programs written to take advantage of the 3Gs's power will have a lessor version that will work fine for the older machines. It's possible that just like PC games, you will be able to disable features in rendering that will allow a less powerful device to run it. People are used to this. It's not a big deal, and will be incentive to some people yo upgrade.
20 million 3GS's? You realize that's more than iPhone and iPhone 3G have sold combine in 2 years! Where did you get that number?
Apple just reported they've sold 40,000,000 iPhones and iPod touches....TOTAL! Where does 20 million in 12 months come from? That sounds absolutely ridiculous.
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...hone_sales.png
Not to mention it's what will sell in ~9 months. After that, devs will be looking at the new dual core iPhone.
I don’t agree with any of that.
1. It’s still using the same Xcode.
2. It may be longer, but only because the developer has more options available to them. It may also be shorter as the developer no longer has to spend extra time shoehorning the app into older hardware to compete with newer apps that are utilizing the latest HW.
3.Still using the same Xcode. There are potential reasons why it could could more but nothing that states it will higher specifically for coding for the new HW. In fact, it’ll be cheaper than coding for both the new and old.
4. How you get 1/40 the size? Is that because there are 40M iPhone OS X devices out there now? how do you get one million as of today or as of one month from now. How about 6 months from now or one year from now when this new HW is the standard for future-forward app development?
I'd like to see you use the same Xcode, take the same amount of time and money and come out with a game as complete as Final Fantasy VII: Crisis Core or any other hit PSP game. Xcode and Cocoa can not match up to the engines used by professional video game designers. Not to mention those engines take a few years to develop.
Sure plenty of run of mill apps will be created for the 3GS just like all the apps in the store now. But as for these PSP quality apps, I have serious doubts.
Let's also take into account the touch hasn't been updated yet, and Apple's free iPod touch program is in effect this summer. Also the 8gb 3G has been dropped to a more attractive price point.
20 million 3GS's? You realize that's more than iPhone and iPhone 3G have sold combine in 2 years! Where did you get that number?
Apple just reported they've sold 40,000,000 iPhones and iPod touches....TOTAL! Where does 20 million in 12 months come from? That sounds absolutely ridiculous.
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi...hone_sales.png
Not to mention it's what will sell in ~9 months. After that, devs will be looking at the new dual core iPhone.
That chart doesn't seem quite right, didn't they sell more than 10M iPhones in the first year of sales? Also, it's missing at least one quarter of sales data. I thought they sold in the range of 15M in the second year. With declining growth, that could mean 20M over the next year. I need to find sources for that information.
But if I went with your number, 40M iPhone & Touches for two years of sales should mean it shouldn't be hard to sell more than 20M of iPhones & Touches over the next year.
That chart doesn't seem quite right, didn't they sell more than 10M iPhones in the first year of sales? Also, it's missing at least one quarter of sales data. I thought they sold in the range of 15M in the second year. With declining growth, that could mean 20M over the next year. I need to find sources for that information.
But if I went with your number, 40M iPhone & Touches for two years of sales should mean it shouldn't be hard to sell more than 20M of iPhones & Touches over the next year.
It was 6M, but remember it was only the US for the first few months, only handful of countries were added that year and it was EDGE.
That chart actually hurts his argument as it shows over 11M iPhones sold in the first 6 months since the 3G launch. While the number won't double with the expected upgrade the greater appeal of the new iPhone 3GS and v3.0 OS, and the addition with about 15(?) countries since last year should help promote sales.
That doesn't even include the iPod Touch, which I believe has gotten close to overshadowing the iPhone in total unit sales.
You're proving my point. First Apple will sell more iPod touch's than iPhones. It's cheaper and w/o a contract. The new iPod touch with the new hardware won't be coming out 'til September. You're citing a 12 month period. By then the new hardware will already be released which is what this topic is centered around. You will more than like see the A9 for reasons cited previously. More than likely background tasks will be supported and it will have Open CL support. They will have had a full year to catch up with some of the best features of the Pre (multitasking) for OS 4.0.
What? Where did you figure that from? Apple will sell iPhones at a rate that's almost 2:1 over i PodTouch sales, just as they have been doing.
Most developers are going to develop for all iPhone OS devices and not just the 3gs. They are going to want to maximize profits. A perfect example of this is Mac gaming. Windows gets the games because they are on more computers. It's may be true that some options like renering could be turned off for older hardware but it's doubtful. That's a very un-Apple move to constantly have to mess around with options. They like to keep everything as simple as possible.
Most developers will do what most developers always do. They will look to whom they think will buy most of their product, and spend mot of their developmental bucks there. That will mean the 3Gs. In addition, as most developers do, they will find a way to allow their program work acceptably on older models as well.
Apple won't be messing around with the options. It's already been showed that the new graphics chips can work with the same fixed structure the current 2G and 3G models have for that very reason.
As far as the numbers go, the 40 million is for two years of iPhone and iPod touch sales. The 20 million is a minimum number for iPhone sales over the next 12 months. hopefully, they will sell more, but we are in a recession.
It was 6M, but remember it was only the US for the first few months, only handful of countries were added that year and it was EDGE.
That chart actually hurts his argument as it shows over 11M iPhones sold in the first 6 months since the 3G launch. While the number won't double with the expected upgrade the greater appeal of the new iPhone 3GS and v3.0 OS, and the addition with about 15(?) countries since last year should help promote sales.
That doesn't even include the iPod Touch, which I believe has gotten close to overshadowing the iPhone in total unit sales.
iPhone sales substantially outrun iTouch sales.
And yes, iPhone sales will increase at a good rate. Not doubling in the same regions as now maybe, but coming close to it. And if the China deal finally goes through as it seems it will, then all bets are off.
I expect to see at least 20 million iPhone sales in the next 12 months
If we see good, but not too highly priced game controllers, then that will sell a lot of phones. The combination of the "s" and "3" is very desirable. The 32 GB will allow those increased functions to have more room to breath.
And if we can somehow boot our Mac off the flash as we now can from a flash drive, well...
The $99 price for a 3G iPhone puts the iPhone into a whole new market. While the plan is still too pricey for some consumers, the price of the hardware is now cheap enough that even non-gadget-gurus are interested. Rather than seeing sales leveling off, I'm anticipating them to accelerate for the foreseeable future.
iPhone sales substantially outrun iTouch sales.
And yes, iPhone sales will increase at a good rate. Not doubling in the same regions as now maybe, but coming close to it. And if the China deal finally goes through as it seems it will, then all bets are off.
I expect to see at least 20 million iPhone sales in the next 12 months
If we see good, but not too highly priced game controllers, then that will sell a lot of phones. The combination of the "s" and "3" is very desirable. The 32 GB will allow those increased functions to have more room to breath.
And if we can somehow boot our Mac off the flash as we now can from a flash drive, well...
I agree with everything you say, expect I wouldn?t call the iPhone sales to be substantially outrun the iPhone, but that may be a PoV.
As of the march 17th event they announced that they had sold 30M units running iPhone OS X. Of those 17M were iPhones, leaving 13M as iPod Touches. I can?t find the article, but if I recall correctly that means that iPod Touch sales had done quite a bit of catch up in 6 months since the release of the G2 iPod Touch in September. Of course, that is bound to happen and even with the free iPod Touch for back to school this next quarter should be dominated by the iPhone, but I thin that the next quarter may actually be trumped by the iPhone in actual unit sales for Apple?s 1st and 2nd quarter for 2010.
Regardless, 20M for the iPhone is the minimum I?d speculate, especially when it did over 11M units in the first two quarters of sales since it?s launch last year. Anecdotally speaking, I know a lot of people buy their first iPhone this year.
(I?ll keep looking for the info that showed the Touch growth rate increasing faster than the iPhone)
But back on point, developers will build for the new iPhone because of the newer HW and this will get even more attractive when the next Touch gets the new HW, too. I really don?t understand eamer8912?s point that using better HW is a not a good thing.
Here is an AI article that says the Touch sales are nearly on par with the iPhone...That should be taken with a grain of sale as we know that many people were waiting for the iPhone at that point.
But back on point, developers will build for the new iPhone because of the newer HW and this will get even more attractive when the next Touch gets the new HW, too. I really don’t understand eamer8912’s point that using better HW is a not a good thing.
It seems sales have picked up. But the manager of the SoHo store, whom I know from our Mac User Group meetings there, has told me that iPhone sales are well ahead of iTouch sales. I suppose that store could be special.
It seems sales have picked up. But the manager of the SoHo store, whom I know from our Mac User Group meetings there, has told me that iPhone sales are well ahead of iTouch sales. I suppose that store could be special.
Touch is obviously overpriced. In Europe customer always has the option of only 12 months iPhone contract. This matters a lot.
Touch is obviously overpriced. In Europe customer always has the option of only 12 months iPhone contract. This matters a lot.
Except for the time between the iPhone and Touch updates, I think the Touch is underpriced.
The difference is Touch doesn't have any kind of subsidy, but it's largely an iPhone without phone / cellular data radios and the camera. Maybe those are very expensive parts but I think it was pretty well priced being a media playing PDA.
Except for the time between the iPhone and Touch updates, I think the Touch is underpriced.
The difference is Touch doesn't have any kind of subsidy, but it's largely an iPhone without phone / cellular data radios and the camera. Maybe those are very expensive parts but I think it was pretty well priced being a media playing PDA.
I did a little research on this. Maybe, "overpriced" isn't the term, which describes exactly what happens. It's just a part of truth. Yes, unsibsidized iPhone costs more at the time of purchase. But look, after just one year of having been tethered to a carrier you get that same iPod Touch and the phone, two gadgets, in fact. Then, there're precisely two things about iPod Touch vs iPhone in Europe:
- Touch is more expensive in comparable use, remaining still limited in quite a few aspects
- Psychologically, iPod Touch is more expensive than subsidized iPhone at the time of buy.
I compare below the approximate costs of iPhone and Touch over the first year, having in mind, surely, the typical iPhone use:........................iPhone 3G 8GB............................................... ..........iPod Touch 8GB
------------------+-----------------+--------------------------------------------------------------
Device..................................99........ .................................................. 229
Contract.....................12 * 53 = 636............................................... .............0
- Internet 3G/E..............everywhere 0................................................. ............-
- Internet WiFi................unlimited 0.................unlimited 1eur/h: 3h * 1eur/h * 365days=1095
- E-mail......................everywhere 0.............................................hots pot 1eur/h: 0
- SMS............................unlimited 0................................................. ...........-
- Voice............................1h + 1h 0................................................. ...........-
- TV, 20 channels..................everywhere 0.........hotspot/not work 1eur/h: 0.3h * 1eur/h * 365d = 109
- Apps.................................work OK................................not work/not optimized KO
-----------------+-----------------+---------------------------------------------------------------
Total, 1st year....................735....................... ........................................1433
iPod appears to be absurdly expensive.
I did a little research on this. Maybe, "overpriced" isn't the term, which describes exactly what happens. It's just a part of truth. Yes, unsibsidized iPhone costs more at the time of purchase. But look, after just one year of having been tethered to a carrier you get that same iPod Touch and the phone, two gadgets, in fact. Then, there're precisely two things about iPod Touch vs iPhone in Europe:
- Touch is more expensive in comparable use, remaining still limited in quite a few aspects
- Psychologically, iPod Touch is more expensive than subsidized iPhone at the time of buy.
I compare below the approximate costs of iPhone and Touch over the first year, having in mind, surely, the typical iPhone use:That's a lot of hot spot time. Three hours a day? Also, what form of TV are you talking about? I thought Apple was not allowing TV apps on the app store.
One thing to keep in mind is that not everyone's use or circumstances is the same, your chart might be valid for you, but not everyone. Most of the apps that I have would work fine without a constant internet connection. If the iPhone makes more sense to you, then that's fine, but a chart proving once and for all that the Touch is too expensive doesn't mean anything except for people who would use it in a similar way as you. Even if iPhone is selling better, it's not as if the Touch is selling like dirt. By your numbers the Touch shouldn't be selling at all, but if you are going to use your chart, it looks like you're going to complain that it's overpriced even if it were free.
I see you make a ton of comments, like 15 million sales here and iPhone more substantial there. Do you have any links? at all? I see you making a lot of opinionated comments like devs will focus on the 3GS for developing, because that's where the apps will sell.
Why is that? Are 3g owners going to stop buying apps?
Do you have any evidence to your opinion?
Edit: You know what, never mind. This debate has gotten so far off topic. We started back with multi-core iPhones in 2010!
That's a lot of hot spot time. Three hours a day?
Three hours a day of web surfing is the average time, having been reported for europeans some years ago (in 2005). I believe, it's even longer now. The duration of my personal moderate use of iPhone internet connection nears that number of hours. And I suspect, many surf much longer, than I do. And all those applications: YouTube, TV, TV/movie guides, weather, gas prices, twitters, facebooks, radio streams etc. All that works over internet. I think 3 hours is rather realistic approximation.
Also, what form of TV are you talking about? I thought Apple was not allowing TV apps on the iPhone.
It should be so in States. It's not Apple, it's carriers who ban TV streaming. But in Europe we do watch mobile TV on iPhone over 3G. (And Mel meant London from the beginning, didn't he?). There're lots of applications from different vendors. 0.3h = 20 min it's the time span of regular TV news. Folks hang on MTVs for hours. The problem is all those applications - though being said to be capable of - refuse to work over WiFi.
Three hours a day of web surfing is the average time, having been reported for europeans some years ago (in 2005). I believe, it's even longer now. The duration of my personal moderate use of iPhone internet connection nears that number of hours. And I suspect, many surf much longer, than I do. And all those applications: YouTube, TV, TV/movie guides, weather, gas prices, twitters, facebooks, radio streams etc. All that works over internet. I think 3 hours is rather realistic approximation.
It should be so in States. It's not Apple, it's carriers who ban TV streaming. But in Europe we do watch mobile TV on iPhone over 3G. (And Mel meant London from the beginning, didn't he?). There're lots of applications from different vendors. 0.3h = 20 min it's the time span of regular TV news. Folks hang on MTVs for hours. The problem is all those applications - though being said to be capable of - refuse to work over WiFi.
3 hours a day of iPhone usage? Ouch!
The iPhone is great. But I if needed to use it for that length of time, i'd be seeking a more efficient tool. Well, maybe not if it were just for entertainment on a commuter train. But if trying to actually accomplish something online for 3 hours a day, a smart phone definitely isn't the most efficient tool. Except for special circumstances, which do exist, that amount of daily usage seems like a colossal waste of time. A more full featured computer would allow one to do so much more with their life due to all the time savings.
Then again, some people send hundreds of text messages a day, so what do I know?