Microsoft will probably call it a roaring success (beyond their wildest imagination) if Zune is able to grab 10% of the sales of iPods this quarter. In reality, they may actually get up to 10% of the iPod Video sales, but as others have pointed out, the iPod Shuffle and the Nano will be the bulk of the iPods sold this quarter and Microsoft has no answer to these offerings.
I predict .4M for Zune vs 18-20M for the complete iPod line for the quarter.
I started playing around with some numbers to get a sense of what the iPod sales for the quarter might look like.
This is the break down that makes the most sense to me:
Shuffle ($79) --> 30% of Total Units Sold
Nano 2GB ($149) --> 15%
Nano 4 GB ($199) --> 30%
Nano 8 GB ($249) --> 5%
Video 30GB ($249) -->15%
Video 80GB ($349) --> 5%
It's just pure guessing on my part based on product features, pricing, historical data, rumors, personal likes/dislikes, etc ... What do you think?
I think that the lower end models will take more than that. I would say that the Shuffle will take closer to 35% and the 2GB nano closer to 20%. The Shuffle is really popular right now. A lot of the freshman in my Spanish class won't stop talking about it.
I think that the lower end models will take more than that. I would say that the Shuffle will take closer to 35% and the 2GB nano closer to 20%. The Shuffle is really popular right now. A lot of the freshman in my Spanish class won't stop talking about it.
I agree and initially I had a larger percentage assigned to the Shuffle but I believe that, unless the sales numbers are tracking to projections, Apple will throttle it's supply a bit towards the end of the quarter to boost the other models.
The average unit cost of an iPod has dropped between $20-50 and they have a larger sales number to make compared to last year with essentially the same product lineup. That means either selling a lot more total number of units or a larger percent of higher priced units.
What sort of margins does Apple have going for it? Out of all the iPods I'm most curious about the shuffle. If they had just $10-15 profit that would be amazing.
What sort of margins does Apple have going for it? Out of all the iPods I'm most curious about the shuffle. If they had just $10-15 profit that would be amazing.
The bill-of-materials for the iPod line has traditionally been around 50% of the list price. A $10-$15 profit is therefore feasible on a Shuffle.
First, the guy trying to advertise the Zune bascially had to admit that it totally stinks and then the news lady pulls out her shuffle that everyone was fawning over how much better it looks than the Zune -- and it is not even the prime competitor to zune. I almost died laughing!
The news guy actually asks why doesn't Microsoft get some good design people because Zune looks so clunky! Ha Ha!
My wife saw the Zune for the first time today at Sprawl-Mart. Her reaction was "Oh my god!" It wasn't a good "Oh my god." It was a 'look at that ugly woman "Oh my god."
My wife saw the Zune for the first time today at Sprawl-Mart. Her reaction was "Oh my god!" It wasn't a good "Oh my god." It was a 'look at that ugly woman "Oh my god."
she is right on....there will be early adopters but also fill in the line of the early earlier returnees.
There are some appealing attributes to Zune that MS can build upon in future versions. This is a 'testing the waters' release. They'll see what the bugs are and the features users like. I look for the next version to actually be designed by MS and be a much more serious threat.
Bless you Backtomac and kudos to Onlooker for the encouragement as well. I sure hope you are right, although, as has already been whipped like a dead horse in another thread, the sheer weight of opinion (as well as my own impressions) do not bode well for Redmond. \
Went to a couple of Wal Marts this weekend looking for toys for the kids. Went by to see how sales were going for Zune and iPods. Sales help said that shuffles were flying of the shelves, they only had one left. He said Zunes weren't selling badly but he thought they would do better because Zune was better than an iPod. Typical big box helper mentality,' windows is better'. \
I looked at Zune and the screen is nice. Brown color is better live then in pictures. Not my favorate, but does not resemble shit. Anyway, my 2 cents.
Maybe Apple don't want to be the leader in video players? Maybe it's not worth the effort? Maybe there's not actually that much demand for it? Archos have been around for ages making far, far superior video players than the iPod, and it's not exactly hurting iPod sales, is it?
Having said all that, I do think Apple will probably bring out a top-of-the-range widescreen HDD iPod (and keep the 4:3 one).
Obviously a dead end discussion on the home field, and I'm on this team, but If Apple wasn't interested in video that video store is pretty much useless. Although no one but Disney has jumped aboard that one, and it doesn;t look like anyone will.
Comments
Microsoft will probably call it a roaring success (beyond their wildest imagination) if Zune is able to grab 10% of the sales of iPods this quarter. In reality, they may actually get up to 10% of the iPod Video sales, but as others have pointed out, the iPod Shuffle and the Nano will be the bulk of the iPods sold this quarter and Microsoft has no answer to these offerings.
I predict .4M for Zune vs 18-20M for the complete iPod line for the quarter.
I started playing around with some numbers to get a sense of what the iPod sales for the quarter might look like.
This is the break down that makes the most sense to me:It's just pure guessing on my part based on product features, pricing, historical data, rumors, personal likes/dislikes, etc ... What do you think?
I think that the lower end models will take more than that. I would say that the Shuffle will take closer to 35% and the 2GB nano closer to 20%. The Shuffle is really popular right now. A lot of the freshman in my Spanish class won't stop talking about it.
I agree and initially I had a larger percentage assigned to the Shuffle but I believe that, unless the sales numbers are tracking to projections, Apple will throttle it's supply a bit towards the end of the quarter to boost the other models.
The average unit cost of an iPod has dropped between $20-50 and they have a larger sales number to make compared to last year with essentially the same product lineup. That means either selling a lot more total number of units or a larger percent of higher priced units.
What sort of margins does Apple have going for it? Out of all the iPods I'm most curious about the shuffle. If they had just $10-15 profit that would be amazing.
The bill-of-materials for the iPod line has traditionally been around 50% of the list price. A $10-$15 profit is therefore feasible on a Shuffle.
i think this is all you need to know
Wow. that was hilarious!
First, the guy trying to advertise the Zune bascially had to admit that it totally stinks and then the news lady pulls out her shuffle that everyone was fawning over how much better it looks than the Zune -- and it is not even the prime competitor to zune. I almost died laughing!
The news guy actually asks why doesn't Microsoft get some good design people because Zune looks so clunky! Ha Ha!
Something a small girl like me COULD NOT fit into her back pocket if I so desired, or even into my jacket pocket probably.
When I saw it at Best Buy i *WAS NOT* impressed.
Though, I actually would like an olive green or brown iPod, it'd go great with my hair!
why are you so opptomistic--it won't make a pimple on apples ars
zoon will have to get on a ladder just to kiss ipods ars
zoon brick will also come in used brick brown.
lets hear the return rate???
my dad always says " a pig in a tuxedo is still a pig" (thanks Dad)
Though, I actually would like an olive green or brown iPod, it'd go great with my hair!
Olive-green hair... SEXY!
My wife saw the Zune for the first time today at Sprawl-Mart. Her reaction was "Oh my god!" It wasn't a good "Oh my god." It was a 'look at that ugly woman "Oh my god."
she is right on....there will be early adopters but also fill in the line of the early earlier returnees.
Olive-green hair... SEXY!
I have red hair, and olive green looks amazing on me. THough that might be thanks to my hazel eyes ;D I never was much for fashion haha.
Originally posted by Backtomac:
There are some appealing attributes to Zune that MS can build upon in future versions. This is a 'testing the waters' release. They'll see what the bugs are and the features users like. I look for the next version to actually be designed by MS and be a much more serious threat.
Bless you Backtomac and kudos to Onlooker for the encouragement as well. I sure hope you are right, although, as has already been whipped like a dead horse in another thread, the sheer weight of opinion (as well as my own impressions) do not bode well for Redmond.
* cute/good looking/sexy/an iPod .. kindof ..
* software (iTunes) is free
* you can install ALL your music, which is on your drive allready (Zune= doh!)
=> as father, no follow up costs => decision is made
I looked at Zune and the screen is nice. Brown color is better live then in pictures. Not my favorate, but does not resemble shit. Anyway, my 2 cents.
Maybe Apple don't want to be the leader in video players? Maybe it's not worth the effort? Maybe there's not actually that much demand for it? Archos have been around for ages making far, far superior video players than the iPod, and it's not exactly hurting iPod sales, is it?
Having said all that, I do think Apple will probably bring out a top-of-the-range widescreen HDD iPod (and keep the 4:3 one).
Obviously a dead end discussion on the home field, and I'm on this team, but If Apple wasn't interested in video that video store is pretty much useless. Although no one but Disney has jumped aboard that one, and it doesn;t look like anyone will.
the zune looks absolutely horrible. i couldn't even imagine fiddling with one, let alone owning that sh*t brown
in through the nose and out through the mouth.