PiperJaffray refutes claims of 'collapsing' iTunes sales

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  • Reply 21 of 38
    feynmanfeynman Posts: 1,087member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by VL-Tone


    I have this theory that if it was not for the iPod and iTunes Store success, the good old non-DRM "Red Book Audio" CDs would have been gone already.



    CD's will never go away completely. Speaking as an independent record producer, I release vinyl records and CDs. The market in which doing so has no desire to have their music on iTunes, or any other online music service as even the slightest bit of sharing without the consent of the artist could cannibalize their profits.



    Or by Red Book do you mean CD-R?
  • Reply 22 of 38
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella


    It doesn't have to be bullet proof.

    Just inconvenient enough that the vast majority won't bother.



    Sorry, you are wrong. All it takes is one person to braek the DRM on a CD, post the unprotected songs to P2P and boom, (to quote SJ), they are all over the net.
  • Reply 23 of 38
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jadams


    Sorry, you are wrong. All it takes is one person to braek the DRM on a CD, post the unprotected songs to P2P and boom, (to quote SJ), they are all over the net.



    The DRM on songs sold by Apple can be circumvented.

    So why are millions of people still buying music from Apple?



    Because they are lazy (or honest) and want it conveniently.

    The point I'm trying to make is that selling DRMed music isn't going away.

    It is a viable/profitable business model.
  • Reply 24 of 38
    shetlineshetline Posts: 4,695member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Feynman


    CD's will never go away completely. Speaking as an independent record producer, I release vinyl records and CDs. The market in which doing so has no desire to have their music on iTunes, or any other online music service as even the slightest bit of sharing without the consent of the artist could cannibalize their profits.



    A format doesn't have to "completely go away" to be effectively dead. You may very well be releasing new vinyl even as we speak, but vinyl is effectively dead, or, if I'm a little more generous, it as been relegated to a very small niche market. If as little new music was available on CD now as is available on vinyl, CD would effectively be dead as well.



    If sharing "sharing without the consent of the artist could cannibalize their profit", how do these artists survive releasing CDs? You really expect us to believe that music on iTunes is more quickly or efficiently pirated than music on CDs? Or are these artists just irrationally afraid of that without any real proof of such a thing?



    The only thing I can see an artist being reasonably afraid of when it comes to iTunes is that customers will be tempted to buy single tracks instead of their entire albums.



    I don't expect CDs to go away any time soon myself, but from what I've heard most record companies would love to kill off the CD and replace it with nothing but very strictly DRM-controlled music, formats which make a whole lot more sense as downloads instead of physically distributed media.
  • Reply 25 of 38
    feynmanfeynman Posts: 1,087member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shetline


    A format doesn't have to "completely go away" to be effectively dead. You may very well be releasing new vinyl even as we speak, but vinyl is effectively dead, or, if I'm a little more generous, it as been relegated to a very small niche market. If as little new music was available on CD now as is available on vinyl, CD would effectively be dead as well.



    If sharing "sharing without the consent of the artist could cannibalize their profit", how do these artists survive releasing CDs? You really expect us to believe that music on iTunes is more quickly or efficiently pirated than music on CDs? Or are these artists just irrationally afraid of that without any real proof of such a thing?



    The only thing I can see an artist being reasonably afraid of when it comes to iTunes is that customers will be tempted to buy single tracks instead of their entire albums.



    I don't expect CDs to go away any time soon myself, but from what I've heard most record companies would love to kill off the CD and replace it with nothing but very strictly DRM-controlled music, formats which make a whole lot more sense as downloads instead of physically distributed media.



    MP3's or another means of a digital file is much easier to share, sometimes without even realizing it than a CD is. Not to mention, a lot of the listeners in this market do not care for iPods and there are even some that strictly prefer vinyl and will never even touch a CD. Even though it is a small market, globally there are well over a few million people (who would not touch CDs). It's not a matter of being behind in the times but for reasons I mentioned above (about having the liner notes, color vinyl, etc) and for the fact the quality is indeed better - unless you have the complete uncompressed raw file with the very best amps and cables and not even CDs could offer you that kind of quality.



    It's hard to imagine this specific music scene without being involved in it but more the reason they would not want to ever be on iTunes or any other online distribution service is for the same reason they would never want to have their CDs sold at a major record store.
  • Reply 26 of 38
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JeffDM


    iTunes took three years to get to 5%. Even an additional 5% a year would mean about two decades.



    I don't understand why you think that DRM would encourage the decline of CDs. There's nothing that can be put on a CD and still play, but cannot be broken.



    CDs can be copied, easily. If DRM for digital music was available that was bullet proof, then I would think it would be ideal for the music companies as they could distribute content cheaply and not worry about piracy. I just think that if that day comes the music companies will go from loathing digital distribution to embracing it and phasing out other media that can be pirated. I just can see an about face on their part.



    My 2 cents.
  • Reply 27 of 38
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella


    It does disclose data, just not detailed enough to satisfy the curiosity of rabid fans and analysts.

    Apple does this primarily as a competitive advantage



    Apple used to give exact figures for almost every model of computer they sold.

    Now they just lump all desktop sales and all portable sales together.

    Same thing with iPods.

    Apple never gives a breakdown such as

    25% shuffles

    45% nanos

    30% video



    Analysts and Apple's competitors must guesstimate.



    But wouldn't iTune's sales, provided just as much as a service as a product, be quantifiably different ? Apple used to advertize the numbers of tracks sold ...
  • Reply 28 of 38
    I agree there is a novelty to buying songs instantly rather then the next day, however since iTunes 128K ACC encoding has two significant disadvantages.



    1 - Apple's Fairplay program limits the portability of music. Even though I have bought probably 40 albums off of iTunes, I've started to use Amazon to purchase CD's (typically used) and import the music to allow for more portability. It takes a few days to receive the CD's, however I now have a truly portable music collection in iTunes.



    I'm also paranoid that at some point I may pass on, or somehow my iTunes account gets compromised, or I lose a couple of computers (theft or hard drive failure) in which case I have lost and my family may have lost their ability to play the music which we have heavily invested. I suspect my music investment is upwards of $10,000 over the years.



    2 - iTunes ACC 128 is very good compression, but not lossless. I would rather encode the music into iTunes at ACC 160 VBR which seems to my ears to be truly CD quality. Ultimately I still have the CD's of my favorite music, however ACC 160 VBR is great compression and the music is to a semi audiophile the same as the original CDs.



    I also suspect that I'm not the only one thinking the above. The reality is that over time users of iTunes and purchasers at the iTunes Music store will have to ask themselves about the portability of the music over time.



    Digital music would seem to have an unlimited lifespan, however Apple iTunes seems to limit that potential. I see iTunes purchased music over time going the way of the 8 Track and Cassette tape in that if it isn't truly portable and transferable consumers will opt for other music formats if they are serious about their music.



    I'm sure that for quick picks of specific songs and even albums I'm not sure about I'll still opt for iTunes purchases, however my mailbox has recently seen an increase in jewel cases



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nutrix


    Just to say first post woohoo!!



    Of course iTunes sales are going up! The more people see the advantage of buying songs instantly rather than waiting until the next day, when you've probably forgotten what you wanted, the more people use the service. I buy more songs on iTunes than ever, because I mostly don't want the whole album.



  • Reply 29 of 38
    Forrester has an incentive for their "claims." Microsoft.
  • Reply 30 of 38
    ajmasajmas Posts: 596member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac


    Maybe it's me but once DRM is bullet proof I see CDs going the way of dinosaurs. I envision digital distribution as the ONLY way of purchasing music in the future.



    I see quite the opposite. DRM is a hinderence to the consumer and makes life inconvenient. The only people winning with DRM is the seller. The competition suffers. For me the only bullet proof DRM is no DRM.
  • Reply 31 of 38
    Forrester should be taken to court for blatant market manipulation. How many fools sold based on their false statements?
  • Reply 32 of 38
    chuckerchucker Posts: 5,089member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich


    Forrester should be taken to court for blatant market manipulation. How many fools sold based on their false statements?



    They didn't make any false statements, and even went of their way to try and correct the media's false interpretation.
  • Reply 33 of 38
    ajmasajmas Posts: 596member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich


    Forrester should be taken to court for blatant market manipulation. How many fools sold based on their false statements?



    If you are only investing based on one source of information, then you deserve to lose money. A wise investor, checks facts and makes careful judgements - to not do so would be foolish, especially given the amount of bad information that is known to circulate.
  • Reply 34 of 38
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ajmas


    If you are only investing based on one source of information, then you deserve to lose money. A wise investor, checks facts and makes careful judgements - to not do so would be foolish, especially given the amount of bad information that is known to circulate.



    Thus, the use of the word "fools".
  • Reply 35 of 38
    Edit: Outrage cleared. Too angry to make a sensible post.
  • Reply 36 of 38
    shetlineshetline Posts: 4,695member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Feynman


    MP3's or another means of a digital file is much easier to share, sometimes without even realizing it than a CD is.



    Perhaps an unprotected MP3 is easier to share than a CD, but DRM-burdened files aren't, and that's what iTunes -- which is what you said these artists were afraid of -- sells. One does not run some hack to strip off DRM, or burn one's music onto a CD and re-rip it to get rid of DRM, "without even realizing it". That's at least, if not more, work than burning a CD.



    A direct rip from a CD, at 128 kbps or greater, will almost always be better quality, therefore a little more appealing for piracy, than most things de-DRMed from Apple, because a lot of the tricks for removing DRM mean an additional lossy compression step (music is decompressed then undergoes a second generation of lossy compression). Take a song purchased from iTunes at 128 kbps, burn it to CD, then re-rip that CD back to that same low 128 kbps bit rate, and the results are horrible.



    It only takes one person to rip a CD and put the files out on a file sharing service to start the piracy ball rolling. For any CD which sells more than a few dozen copies, it won't be very long until more than one person has done this.



    So, I ask again, what rational reason related to piracy is their to fear selling ones music on iTunes? Objecting to iTunes sound quality or single-track sales might sense. Fear of piracy greater than CDs easily allow is totally unfounded.



    Quote:

    Not to mention, a lot of the listeners in this market do not care for iPods and there are even some that strictly prefer vinyl and will never even touch a CD. Even though it is a small market, globally there are well over a few million people (who would not touch CDs).



    This is a very small niche market. The selection of music available on LP is far more limited than what you can get on CD. Your original point seemed to be that no one should fear CDs "going away" because LPs haven't "gone away".



    My point is that if (or more like when) the selection of music available on CD becomes anywhere near as limited as what you can currently buy on vinyl, possibly complicated by other factors like higher prices or much-delayed releases, that will make CDs essentially "dead" for most consumers.



    What would you say to the person who hates DRM, would rather buy CDs, but the specific music that person wants to buy is available only with DRM?



    Quote:

    It's not a matter of being behind in the times but for reasons I mentioned above (about having the liner notes, color vinyl, etc)...



    Niche market, niche market, niche market.



    Quote:

    ...and for the fact the quality is indeed better - unless you have the complete uncompressed raw file with the very best amps and cables and not even CDs could offer you that kind of quality.



    Pretentious deluded audio snob horseshit. I have nothing against a true interest in sound quality, just the stupid ideas that some people who say their interested in sound quality are too often willing to swallow. Next you'll be telling me that vinyl, unlike that nasty digital audio stuff, has "infinite resolution" because it's analog!
  • Reply 37 of 38
    feynmanfeynman Posts: 1,087member
    shetline I for one never said these artists fear iTunes for fear of piracy, I was stating that an MP3 or any of media file (I did not mention DRM).



    Quote:

    Pretentious deluded audio snob horseshit. I have nothing against a true interest in sound quality, just the stupid ideas that some people who say their interested in sound quality are too often willing to swallow. Next you'll be telling me that vinyl, unlike that nasty digital audio stuff, has "infinite resolution" because it's analog!



    Have you ever a completely raw song? There is a very large difference.



    I'm willing to bet that CDs will not be going out of fashion anytime in our life times as it is much cheaper to produce and more profit to the respect individual, weather it be the corporate monger like Universal or the independent artist. I could make 1,000 CDs for $1,290 and all I would have to do is sell less than 100 of them at 15.00 to break even and then the artist could take the rest of the profit. That's not the case with digital downloads.
  • Reply 38 of 38
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Clive At Five


    "Waiting until the next day", what are you talking about?? If I want a CD, I drive 5 minutes to the nearest Wal*Mart, Target or Best Buy. And since I'm fresh out of college and don't have a full-time job yet, I can't afford anything but dial-up. So in a race, a 15 minute trip to the nearest Big Box is quicker for me than the iTS. PLUS if I was a total audiophile, I could rip the music at a higher bitrate for better quality... something that the iTS doesn't offer.



    SECONDLY, this might be just me, but I am ALWAYS finding favorite songs on an album that I had never heard before and hadn't anticipated liking. Like, I'd buy an album for a certain song or two but end up LOVING three or four others even more. As a result, I am unwilling to settle for what the radio sh!ts out these days. It's all-or-nothing as far as albums are concerned.



    -Clive



    I'm talking about when you are at home and it's late at night you can hardly go out and buy music at a shop can you? We have 2mbps internet so downloading a song is literally 30 seconds, and we can do it whenever we want. It is a better service all round. I'm aware that the music quality is not perfect, but neither is that of a CD. I consider myself a music fan and the quality of music is not as bad as all you people seem to think. It is audible and good up to reasonably loud volumes.



    As for tracks on CD, that is what the preview feature is for. I never like all the tracks on a cd, because invariably there are fillers. It is also far easier to browse and look for music in the iTS.



    I never wanted to offend anyone, I was merely pointing out why music sales would not increase in shops accompanied with a decrease in sales on the iTS.



    Have faxes become more or less popular since the advent of e-mail?
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