Exactly. But there are plenty of people out there that readily believe the most optimistic view. And that's why the stock has gone up so much in the past few months. If that amount isn't true, then SOMEBODY is going to be disappointed and sell.
What, you think you're the only person who read that article today? Gee, why didn't the stock go up 10% when it hit? Maybe it's already baked in? Nah! The market's dumb and only people who read AI know how great Apple is doing right now!
Want to buy my shares for 160 in 3 weeks?
Touchy,touchy,touchy. And yes, I think many people on AI did not read that article because this is a computer site not a financial site.
I don't much care what the price is on thursday or 3 weeks from now. If it does happen to dip 5% after earnings (like GOOG), I'll buy a some more. It will be a gift. I think Apple's fiscal year 2007 revenues will be around $25 billion with an EPS of ~$3.80; fiscal year 2008 revenues will be around $32 billion and an EPS ~$4.50-$4.60. Fiscal year 2009, revenues will be around $38 billion with an EPS ~ $5.50-5.75. Using a conservative multiple of 35, thats a share price range of about $140-$200. This is all guess work of course but the whole product line is so strong, I'm comfortable with these estimates.
Nice of this analyst to up his price target from $10 BELOW curent share price to $10 above.
Considering that 80% of these so called professionals cannot even match the averages, it's a wonder they still have jobs. Where would you be in your industry if you delivered sub average work 80% of the time. Or if 80% of the people in your profession couldn't even perform better than a layman doing your work. Sort of takes the incentive out of paying a Professional fee, doesn't it?
I don't much care what the price is on thursday or 3 weeks from now. If it does happen to dip 5% after earnings (like GOOG), I'll buy a some more. It will be a gift. I think Apple's fiscal year 2007 revenues will be around $25 billion with an EPS of ~$3.80; fiscal year 2008 revenues will be around $32 billion and an EPS ~$4.50-$4.60. Fiscal year 2009, revenues will be around $38 billion with an EPS ~ $5.50-5.75. Using a conservative multiple of 35, thats a share price range of about $140-$200. This is all guess work of course but the whole product line is so strong, I'm comfortable with these estimates.
Hope you caught this bit of news and factored it into your estimates:
"The company said sales of the Apple iPhone "have been robust." AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers in the last two days of the quarter. "Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels," AT&T said."
Not good when everyone's estimate for iPhone sales in the first two days was too high...
Hope you caught this bit of news and factored it into your estimates:
"The company said sales of the Apple iPhone "have been robust." AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers in the last two days of the quarter. "Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels," AT&T said."
Not good when everyone's estimate for iPhone sales in the first two days was too high...
I think we still don't know the real numbers are. And for me, the short term here is not relevant. It will be fun though.
In any event, the next 2 days will be a wild ride. Pre-market, I see one block sale of 42188 shares at $140 in AAPL and one block sale of 1,944,200 shares in T at $40. This is going to be more fun than a roller coaster ride at Universal.
I think we still don't know the real numbers are. And for me, the short term here is not relevant. It will be fun though.
What sort of "real" numbers are you looking for? The "good" ones? Or maybe you think a whole ton of people took their iPhone home and didn't activate it for 3 days That the true out the door sales of iPhones were 500,000 as some suggested, and that exactly 356,000 people went home and sat on their paperweight iPhone for 3 days? These are the real numbers, and for all the talk in the past few days about how someone's "model" did not factor in this or that, I would think factoring-in iPhone sales below EVERY model would be something you'd want to do.
Saying "that's not important to me, I'm thinking long term" sounds just like what a lot of people were saying while the bubble was popping a few years ago.
Just be careful. Don't assume that because you read a message board or three where EVERYONE is a fan of Apple and owns Apple stock, that you are getting a balanced view of the company's performance and prospects.
I'm hoping to get out of Apple today. I have it in an IRA so don't have to worry about gains taxes, and I'm pretty confident that I'll have a chance to buy more shares for the same money in the near future.
What sort of "real" numbers are you looking for? The "good" ones? Or maybe you think a whole ton of people took their iPhone home and didn't activate it for 3 days That the true out the door sales of iPhones were 500,000 as some suggested, and that exactly 356,000 people went home and sat on their paperweight iPhone for 3 days? These are the real numbers, and for all the talk in the past few days about how someone's "model" did not factor in this or that, I would think factoring-in iPhone sales below EVERY model would be something you'd want to do.
Saying "that's not important to me, I'm thinking long term" sounds just like what a lot of people were saying while the bubble was popping a few years ago.
Just be careful. Don't assume that because you read a message board or three where EVERYONE is a fan of Apple and owns Apple stock, that you are getting a balanced view of the company's performance and prospects.
I'm hoping to get out of Apple today. I have it in an IRA so don't have to worry about gains taxes, and I'm pretty confident that I'll have a chance to buy more shares for the same money in the near future.
Anecdotally, I did not activate my phone till sunday after a friday the 29th purchase. The second one I bought for my nephew was not activated till later in the week.
I read a lot more than AAPL boards. I follow options activity as well as stock-centric news. As an investor, limiting oneself to fanboy evangelist sites like AI is bad for your wallet. The real numbers in AAPL's case are the ones they report --if they will do so, definitely not a guarantee based on their track record. Add to that the accounting method they have chosen to report iPhone earnings ,it will not be easy to ferret out the iPhone earnings thru the end of June. Nothing will be known for sure about early July iPhone earnings unless they choose to divulge such info which again is unlikely. The most important info for me on the conference call (which I will listen to as always) are the sales of other products particularly the computers. AAPL is not a one trick pony (iPhone) which makes the stock attractive for a long term investor.
Comments
Exactly. But there are plenty of people out there that readily believe the most optimistic view. And that's why the stock has gone up so much in the past few months. If that amount isn't true, then SOMEBODY is going to be disappointed and sell.
What, you think you're the only person who read that article today? Gee, why didn't the stock go up 10% when it hit? Maybe it's already baked in? Nah! The market's dumb and only people who read AI know how great Apple is doing right now!
Want to buy my shares for 160 in 3 weeks?
Touchy,touchy,touchy. And yes, I think many people on AI did not read that article because this is a computer site not a financial site.
I don't much care what the price is on thursday or 3 weeks from now. If it does happen to dip 5% after earnings (like GOOG), I'll buy a some more. It will be a gift. I think Apple's fiscal year 2007 revenues will be around $25 billion with an EPS of ~$3.80; fiscal year 2008 revenues will be around $32 billion and an EPS ~$4.50-$4.60. Fiscal year 2009, revenues will be around $38 billion with an EPS ~ $5.50-5.75. Using a conservative multiple of 35, thats a share price range of about $140-$200. This is all guess work of course but the whole product line is so strong, I'm comfortable with these estimates.
Considering that 80% of these so called professionals cannot even match the averages, it's a wonder they still have jobs. Where would you be in your industry if you delivered sub average work 80% of the time. Or if 80% of the people in your profession couldn't even perform better than a layman doing your work. Sort of takes the incentive out of paying a Professional fee, doesn't it?
I don't much care what the price is on thursday or 3 weeks from now. If it does happen to dip 5% after earnings (like GOOG), I'll buy a some more. It will be a gift. I think Apple's fiscal year 2007 revenues will be around $25 billion with an EPS of ~$3.80; fiscal year 2008 revenues will be around $32 billion and an EPS ~$4.50-$4.60. Fiscal year 2009, revenues will be around $38 billion with an EPS ~ $5.50-5.75. Using a conservative multiple of 35, thats a share price range of about $140-$200. This is all guess work of course but the whole product line is so strong, I'm comfortable with these estimates.
Hope you caught this bit of news and factored it into your estimates:
"The company said sales of the Apple iPhone "have been robust." AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers in the last two days of the quarter. "Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels," AT&T said."
Not good when everyone's estimate for iPhone sales in the first two days was too high...
Hope you caught this bit of news and factored it into your estimates:
"The company said sales of the Apple iPhone "have been robust." AT&T activated 146,000 iPhone subscribers in the last two days of the quarter. "Sales of the iPhone continue to be strong in July with store traffic above historical levels," AT&T said."
Not good when everyone's estimate for iPhone sales in the first two days was too high...
I think we still don't know the real numbers are. And for me, the short term here is not relevant. It will be fun though.
In any event, the next 2 days will be a wild ride. Pre-market, I see one block sale of 42188 shares at $140 in AAPL and one block sale of 1,944,200 shares in T at $40. This is going to be more fun than a roller coaster ride at Universal.
I think we still don't know the real numbers are. And for me, the short term here is not relevant. It will be fun though.
What sort of "real" numbers are you looking for? The "good" ones? Or maybe you think a whole ton of people took their iPhone home and didn't activate it for 3 days
Saying "that's not important to me, I'm thinking long term" sounds just like what a lot of people were saying while the bubble was popping a few years ago.
Just be careful. Don't assume that because you read a message board or three where EVERYONE is a fan of Apple and owns Apple stock, that you are getting a balanced view of the company's performance and prospects.
I'm hoping to get out of Apple today. I have it in an IRA so don't have to worry about gains taxes, and I'm pretty confident that I'll have a chance to buy more shares for the same money in the near future.
What sort of "real" numbers are you looking for? The "good" ones? Or maybe you think a whole ton of people took their iPhone home and didn't activate it for 3 days
Saying "that's not important to me, I'm thinking long term" sounds just like what a lot of people were saying while the bubble was popping a few years ago.
Just be careful. Don't assume that because you read a message board or three where EVERYONE is a fan of Apple and owns Apple stock, that you are getting a balanced view of the company's performance and prospects.
I'm hoping to get out of Apple today. I have it in an IRA so don't have to worry about gains taxes, and I'm pretty confident that I'll have a chance to buy more shares for the same money in the near future.
Anecdotally, I did not activate my phone till sunday after a friday the 29th purchase. The second one I bought for my nephew was not activated till later in the week.
I read a lot more than AAPL boards. I follow options activity as well as stock-centric news. As an investor, limiting oneself to fanboy evangelist sites like AI is bad for your wallet. The real numbers in AAPL's case are the ones they report --if they will do so, definitely not a guarantee based on their track record. Add to that the accounting method they have chosen to report iPhone earnings ,it will not be easy to ferret out the iPhone earnings thru the end of June. Nothing will be known for sure about early July iPhone earnings unless they choose to divulge such info which again is unlikely. The most important info for me on the conference call (which I will listen to as always) are the sales of other products particularly the computers. AAPL is not a one trick pony (iPhone) which makes the stock attractive for a long term investor.