Notes of interest from Apple's Q307 quarterly conference call

24

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 75
    ouraganouragan Posts: 437member
    Quote:

    Apple couldn't sell in China and India as those markets are flooded with ~$500 pirated software laptops. They can only sell in high per capita GDP places like Japan, South Korea, Singapore, etc?



    Furthermore Apple Japan is sucking out loud because Apple has been steadfastidly ignoring Apple Japan.



    On everything from TV tuners to advertisements, size of notebooks to Macworld Tokyo. Not to mention the iPhone, which could do gangbusters, but will require a great deal of additional hardware/software functionality.



    Note please that not only is Japan easily half the size of the United States economically, but it is also way more focused on both tiny notebooks, TV tuner included desktops (as there's not enough room for both TVs and large desktop computers), and?especially?advanced mobile phones.



    Japan used to be Apple's number two market and if they spent some TLC on it, that could easily be the case again. Not least because of a Japanese adapted iPhone.





    The latest trend in Japan is to have digital TV reception on all kinds of electronic and home appliances. For instance, you can't find a cell phone which wouldn't allow TV viewing.



    The iPhone fits the profile of Apple hardware, overpriced, outdated technology, defective design and, often, defective parts. The iPhone doesn't stand a chance in Japan.



    Japanese consumers demand value for money, i.e. near perfection quality for a low or reasonable price.
  • Reply 22 of 75
    lfe2211lfe2211 Posts: 507member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by g5man View Post


    I am trying to learn options trading. Can you explain more in detail what you bought, how you bought it and how exactly would you attain that much of a profit?



    Thank You in advance



    Go to Optionxpress.com or Yahoo for an options primer. Then go to Yahoo's option site to see the costs of AAPL options at different stike prices. Option trading is not simple but quite lucrative when you know what you're doing and most importantly, you're right about the direction of the stock, up or down.
  • Reply 23 of 75
    lfe2211lfe2211 Posts: 507member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ouragan View Post


    Apple is the ever secretive company. I can't believe that anyone, analyst or stockholder, is amused. Certainly, this must hold down the stock as no one likes to be kept in the dark while being asked to make a leap of faith and pay good money.



    AAPl has always been "secretive". Go back to the CC archives and listen. It frustrates the analysts no end but, in the modern AAPL age, the analyst know the company delivers and that it is the Master of UPOD. It's a cat and mouse game which will continue on in the Jobs era. One take away for me in today's CC is this--they said several times that they hope to announce the one-millionth iPhone sold on the Oct.07 CC. I take this to mean that they are very close to one million sold right now and come the next CC, they will state that they have sold 1.x million iPhones.
  • Reply 24 of 75
    floribusfloribus Posts: 24member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by g5man View Post


    I am trying to learn options trading. Can you explain more in detail what you bought, how you bought it and how exactly would you attain that much of a profit?



    Thank You in advance



    -YOU SHOULD BE QUICK WITH #'S

    -first you need 5000$ and get a margin/options acct. with an online disc brkr.

    -1st thing most folks don't understand is that 95% of all contracts are NEVER exercised!!!

    -so you could decide to purchase some contracts that expire in August with a 155 strike price trading at $1.45 (a contract is always batches of one hundred) , so 1.45 x 100 = 145.00/contract.

    --lets say you want to buy 10 contracts , that would be 10 x 145=1,450

    -to purchase these online you would look up the symbol for aug 155 calls

    - then enter 'buy to open' 10 contracts at the market or you can do a limit order (just like stocks)

    -lets say the next day it goes up 7or 8 dollars , now you would see that each contract is now trading for around 3.00

    -I usually buy current contracts or the following month// other wise too much time value

    -out of the money puts and calls make you the most $$$. but it is very risky!!

    -So basically when i see the stock go up 5-6% i'll sell (you would do this by entering 'sell to close' 10 Aug 155 calls( or however many you want to sell)

    -Many people think that the stock price has to be above the strike price, big misconception.

    -the stock could be at 143 (12 below your strike price of 155)and you would still be able to sell it instantly doubling your cash

    -look at amazon (amzn) aug 80 calls. you can go on yahoo fin. if you are unable to see w/ your broker. Those people octipled and decipled their investments in one day

    sorry i'm not the best at explaing things , and i suck at typing.

    -but i can tell you that i just started doing this 3 months ago today (aapl's last earnings) with 5000 $ that went down to 1800 after trial and error (took me a week), now I'm up to 35k + tommorrow's $$$ profit.

    -ONLY DO IT WITH A STOCK YOU ARE 100% ON, EITHER UP(CALLS) OR DOWN (PUTS) , OTHER WISE YOU MAY LOOSE IT ALL!

    - THIS IS THE ONLY ONE I TRADE OPTIONS WITH.

    -BUY SOME BOOKS, TOO MUCH 2 EXPLAIN, OBVIOUSLY..........
  • Reply 25 of 75
    ak1808ak1808 Posts: 108member
    What I don't get is this:



    270,000 iPhones this quarter at $499 each, makes a nice revenue:

    270,000x$499 = $134,730,000



    Deferred over 24 months (=8 quarters), for the current quarter the revenue is:

    $134,730,000/8 = $16,841,250



    However, Apple only posted $5,000,000.

    Where is the rest? Said payments from AT&T?

    Am I missing something?
  • Reply 26 of 75
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ak1808 View Post


    What I don't get is this:



    270,000 iPhones this quarter at $499 each, makes a nice revenue:

    270,000x$499 = $134,730,000



    Deferred over 24 months (=8 quarters), for the current quarter the revenue is:

    $134,730,000/8 = $16,841,250



    However, Apple only posted $5,000,000.

    Where is the rest? Said payments from AT&T?

    Am I missing something?



    It could be the difference between Shipped/Sold/Paid for

    - i.e. if they ship to AT & T, they won't get paid until sometime after the ship/invoice date

    - so, they haven't received the revenue for those units yet

    - the $5m could just be for accessories sold at Apple Stores.



    - just a guess!

  • Reply 27 of 75
    Apple needs to adapt to market conditions in Japan because the entire country certainly isn't going to change for Apple.



    Western products succeeding in Japan isn't unheard of or impossible. Half of Louis Vuitton sales are from Japan/Japanese consumers. Starbucks, McDonalds and western movies and music have their place in Japanese society. That's because Japanese attitudes towards those types of things don't really perfectly match the western offerings. No Japanese company can truly design something like Louis Vuitton, and McDonalds and Starbucks are different enough from typical Japanese fast food chains to have its niche in Japanese society. Western movies and music also tend to be different from Japanese styles.



    Apple on the other hand has TONS of competition from domestic Japanese companies that clearly know their own people's tastes and habits better than Apple does. Panasonic, Sony, Toshiba; they all make products that cater to Japan's market AND the American market. But what Apple does is literally shoehorn the same products into Japan's market. Now those companies are Japanese, but Japanese products can perform poorly in Japan as well. Look at the PlayStation 3.



    The Japanese are less forgiving of omissions of crucial features Americans typically shrug off. No TV tuner in your laptops or the Cinema Displays? No sale. The iPhone will not impress a Japanese consumer. Do you expect a Japanese consumer to spend tons of money on an Apple TV when the Japanese iTunes store doesn't even have any movies yet? Who in Japan has a home big enough for a Mac Pro?



    This isn't rocket science. If Apple wants to succeed in Japan, they have to work harder. Their offerings are designed for westerners in mind, and perform poorly in the eyes of Japanese consumers who have many options to choose from. It's ironic, but Nintendo's reemerged as the leader of gaming by following Apple's model for design. I think Apple needs to follow Nintendo's lead in offering content attractive to the Japanese consumer. Nintendo made the DS the iPod of Japan (as a phenomena) because it offered those Brain Training titles that millions of Japanese bought into. Apple can do something similar with their products if they put their effort into it.



    Is it worth it? For a market as big as Japan, yes.
  • Reply 28 of 75
    lfe2211lfe2211 Posts: 507member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by FireEmblemPride View Post


    Apple needs to adapt to market conditions in Japan because the entire country certainly isn't going to change for Apple.



    Western products succeeding in Japan isn't unheard of or impossible. Half of Louis Vuitton sales are from Japan/Japanese consumers. Starbucks, McDonalds and western movies and music have their place in Japanese society. That's because Japanese attitudes towards those types of things don't really perfectly match the western offerings. No Japanese company can truly design something like Louis Vuitton, and McDonalds and Starbucks are different enough from typical Japanese fast food chains to have its niche in Japanese society. Western movies and music also tend to be different from Japanese styles.



    Apple on the other hand has TONS of competition from domestic Japanese companies that clearly know their own people's tastes and habits better than Apple does. Panasonic, Sony, Toshiba; they all make products that cater to Japan's market AND the American market. But what Apple does is literally shoehorn the same products into Japan's market. Now those companies are Japanese, but Japanese products can perform poorly in Japan as well. Look at the PlayStation 3.



    The Japanese are less forgiving of omissions of crucial features Americans typically shrug off. No TV tuner in your laptops or the Cinema Displays? No sale. The iPhone will not impress a Japanese consumer. Do you expect a Japanese consumer to spend tons of money on an Apple TV when the Japanese iTunes store doesn't even have any movies yet? Who in Japan has a home big enough for a Mac Pro?



    This isn't rocket science. If Apple wants to succeed in Japan, they have to work harder. Their offerings are designed for westerners in mind, and perform poorly in the eyes of Japanese consumers who have many options to choose from. It's ironic, but Nintendo's reemerged as the leader of gaming by following Apple's model for design. I think Apple needs to follow Nintendo's lead in offering content attractive to the Japanese consumer. Nintendo made the DS the iPod of Japan (as a phenomena) because it offered those Brain Training titles that millions of Japanese bought into. Apple can do something similar with their products if they put their effort into it.



    Is it worth it? For a market as big as Japan, yes.



    You make some good points. Do a search on AI member ElectricMonk. He has laid out in very articulate fashion, how AAPL can succeed in Japan.
  • Reply 29 of 75
    davegeedavegee Posts: 2,765member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ak1808 View Post


    Deferred over 24 months (=8 quarters), for the current quarter the revenue is: $134,730,000/8 = $16,841,250 However, Apple only posted $5,000,000.

    Where is the rest? Said payments from AT&T?

    Am I missing something?



    Could it be that Apple is deferring the income from the iPhone over the life of the contract IT has with AT&T and not the two year contract that the iPhone buyer has with AT&T? If thats the case then given the Apple / AT&T contract is what 5 years? (IIRC) then the number of quarters would be 20... but that really doesn't make sense because how would a phone be handled in the last year or so of the Apple/AT&T contract?



    While it's a screwy idea.... it does make the numbers closer to accurate...



    500*270000 = 135M / 20 quarters = 6.75M



    Dave
  • Reply 30 of 75
    carniphagecarniphage Posts: 1,984member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by FireEmblemPride View Post




    Is it worth it? For a market as big as Japan, yes.



    But Japan is massively protectionist.



    Non-Japanese companies have to compete on a very uneven playing field. With one arm tied behind their back. With a different set of rules.



    I am not convinced it *is* worth the effort. It's not exactly the most dynamic economy on the planet.



    C.
  • Reply 31 of 75
    murphywebmurphyweb Posts: 295member
    Quote:

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ak1808

    What I don't get is this:



    270,000 iPhones this quarter at $499 each, makes a nice revenue:

    270,000x$499 = $134,730,000



    Deferred over 24 months (=8 quarters), for the current quarter the revenue is:

    $134,730,000/8 = $16,841,250



    However, Apple only posted $5,000,000.

    Where is the rest? Said payments from AT&T?

    Am I missing something?





    It could be the difference between Shipped/Sold/Paid for

    - i.e. if they ship to AT & T, they won't get paid until sometime after the ship/invoice date

    - so, they haven't received the revenue for those units yet

    - the $5m could just be for accessories sold at Apple Stores.



    - just a guess!





    No, doubt it, the quarter report would be based on shipped and invoiced goods, payment is not important, it is what went through the books last quarter that counts.



    So the numbers do not add up and i cannot believe that there are people on this site who have taken the 270k figure and already turned it into 500k after Sundays trading!! Amazing ;-)



    So the first thing is important people, all handsets that were sitting unsold in AT&T stores on are counted in this figure, along with all phones that were on route to AT&T stores too. So that 270k figure was not necessarily the amount of phones bought by real customers. And many of the phones sold in AT&T stores after the close of the quarter are phones that have already been accounted for.



    Also what the headlines seemed to have missed is that the 270k figure is for IPHONES AND ACCESSORIES, not just iPhones. That means that even if one in five customers bought car charger or a case or a headphone jack or anything else along with their phone then the actuall phones sold is only 220k, if two in five people bought something else then that figure becomes 170k!! And that still includes the phones on the shelf.



    Say an average price of $545 per sale, 270k phones would result in $6,131.250 per month bookable revenue, the fact that the recorded revenue was $5m including accessories shows that 270k units sold was not just phones.





    EDIT: You have probably realised why your numbers were way over, i was under the opinion that Apple were booking the iPhone revenue on a monthly basis not quarterly, phone bills are paid monthly after all. This would make last quarter a single months revenue.
  • Reply 32 of 75
    carniphagecarniphage Posts: 1,984member
    Not that I care much for this discussion - but Oppenheimer clarified that 270K units were sold-through phones.



    Your accessory point is interesting, but perhaps the $5M figure is because phones sold though AT&T stores show a lower revenue per unit?
  • Reply 33 of 75
    safxmalsafxmal Posts: 3member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ak1808 View Post


    What I don't get is this:



    270,000 iPhones this quarter at $499 each, makes a nice revenue:

    270,000x$499 = $134,730,000



    Deferred over 24 months (=8 quarters), for the current quarter the revenue is:

    $134,730,000/8 = $16,841,250



    However, Apple only posted $5,000,000.

    Where is the rest? Said payments from AT&T?

    Am I missing something?



    Most likely they calculated 30 hours over 8 quarters.

    270,000 times $600 = 162 MM

    2 years times 365 days times 24 hours = 17520 hours

    $162 MM divided by 17520 hours times 30 hours = $277,395
  • Reply 34 of 75
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    It sounds to me like you are suggesting Apple spend a lot of money and time catering to Japan's special needs!



    If the consumers there do not like Apple's menu of offerings -- and it's perfectly legitimate and reasonable that they do not -- they should buy something else. It is just that the extra costs, and hence lower margins, involved in doing something so specific for the Japanese market may not be worth it for Apple. I am speculating that Apple intends do something tailored to Japan with the iPhone, but I also get the sense that it does not seem to be in a hurry to do so (perhaps rightly so).



    Btw, how does Japan's per-capita PC consumption compare to that of a country such as the US?



    I think it's lower, but I also think that the per-unit cost is a lot higher.



    Something like an ultralight wouldn't be a Japan-only product though.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    In what way is Apple ignoring Japan? Could you provide some examples?



    Is it doing something less there than it does with other markets? Or, are you suggesting it should do more there than it does in other markets, e.g., Europe (in which case, it may just not be worth the added costs)?



    Bergermeister says that Apple Japan's service is horrible, that much of the staff he comes in contact with just don't understand Apple. He and Umijin can probably explain better.
  • Reply 35 of 75
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Carniphage View Post


    But Japan is massively protectionist.



    Non-Japanese companies have to compete on a very uneven playing field. With one arm tied behind their back. With a different set of rules.



    I am not convinced it *is* worth the effort. It's not exactly the most dynamic economy on the planet.



    There was a time when Macs had a higher computer market share in Japan than they did in the US, but somewhere along the line, they lost their mojo. I really don't know anything about this uneven playing field, I've heard claims but never really found whether it's true.
  • Reply 36 of 75
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:

    The iPhone fits the profile of Apple hardware, overpriced, outdated technology, defective design and, often, defective parts. The iPhone doesn't stand a chance in Japan.



    By what measurement is Apple hardware over priced, outdated, or defective. Especially compared to any other technology.



    Quote:

    Japanese consumers demand value for money, i.e. near perfection quality for a low or reasonable price.



    Is this a joke. Japanese UI design is horrible.
  • Reply 37 of 75
    ak1808ak1808 Posts: 108member
    Topic: 270.000 iPhones, only 5 Million$?

    Hey, thank you all for your interesting posts!!



    So to collect:

    - calculated only 1/24, because of 24 months (but it still doesn't fit)

    - calculated based on 30 hours in the quarters (fits pretty well)

    - excludes money that AT&T still has to pay

    - includes accessoires, which sell at lower price points (CC contradicts that!)



    So basically we don't know, and just have to trust Apple's accounting.

    I don't get that: Why didn't the analysts fry them a bit on this issue?

    Why is a public company allowed to post such obscure numbers?



    It's not that I don't trust them, but I'm not surprised Enron happend - at all!
  • Reply 38 of 75
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ak1808 View Post


    Topic: 270.000 iPhones, only 5 Million$?

    Hey, thank you all for your interesting posts!!



    So to collect:

    - calculated only 1/24, because of 24 months (but it still doesn't fit)

    - calculated based on 30 hours in the quarters (fits pretty well)

    - excludes money that AT&T still has to pay

    - includes accessoires, which sell at lower price points (CC contradicts that!)



    So basically we don't know, and just have to trust Apple's accounting.

    I don't get that: Why didn't the analysts fry them a bit on this issue?

    Why is a public company allowed to post such obscure numbers?



    It's not that I don't trust them, but I'm not surprised Enron happend - at all!



    You're right - it does seem like a very obscure way to try to account for a product

    - I think they want to hide how much of a kick-back AT&T are giving them
  • Reply 39 of 75
    g5mang5man Posts: 91member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by floribus View Post


    -YOU SHOULD BE QUICK WITH #'S

    -first you need 5000$ and get a margin/options acct. with an online disc brkr.

    -1st thing most folks don't understand is that 95% of all contracts are NEVER exercised!!!

    -so you could decide to purchase some contracts that expire in August with a 155 strike price trading at $1.45 (a contract is always batches of one hundred) , so 1.45 x 100 = 145.00/contract.

    --lets say you want to buy 10 contracts , that would be 10 x 145=1,450

    -to purchase these online you would look up the symbol for aug 155 calls

    - then enter 'buy to open' 10 contracts at the market or you can do a limit order (just like stocks)

    -lets say the next day it goes up 7or 8 dollars , now you would see that each contract is now trading for around 3.00

    -I usually buy current contracts or the following month// other wise too much time value

    -out of the money puts and calls make you the most $$$. but it is very risky!!

    -So basically when i see the stock go up 5-6% i'll sell (you would do this by entering 'sell to close' 10 Aug 155 calls( or however many you want to sell)

    -Many people think that the stock price has to be above the strike price, big misconception.

    -the stock could be at 143 (12 below your strike price of 155)and you would still be able to sell it instantly doubling your cash

    -look at amazon (amzn) aug 80 calls. you can go on yahoo fin. if you are unable to see w/ your broker. Those people octipled and decipled their investments in one day

    sorry i'm not the best at explaing things , and i suck at typing.

    -but i can tell you that i just started doing this 3 months ago today (aapl's last earnings) with 5000 $ that went down to 1800 after trial and error (took me a week), now I'm up to 35k + tommorrow's $$$ profit.

    -ONLY DO IT WITH A STOCK YOU ARE 100% ON, EITHER UP(CALLS) OR DOWN (PUTS) , OTHER WISE YOU MAY LOOSE IT ALL!

    - THIS IS THE ONLY ONE I TRADE OPTIONS WITH.

    -BUY SOME BOOKS, TOO MUCH 2 EXPLAIN, OBVIOUSLY..........



    Thank you for the quick lesson. I am going to try to learn more about it.



    I have made as much as 1K in one day on day trading with aapl, but I am buying and selling 150K worth of stock. Too much risk, hence I want to look into options.



    I know aapl will continue to limb for the next 4 years.
  • Reply 40 of 75
    g5mang5man Posts: 91member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samurai1999 View Post


    You're right - it does seem like a very obscure way to try to account for a product

    - I think they want to hide how much of a kick-back AT&T are giving them



    I think that is the reason they gave us such an interesting number. ATT may have a payment plan where they give apple big chunks at various points. This way one never knows how much of it was for that quarter or previous quarters.
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