Apple shares tumble in after-hours on disappointing outlook

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 74
    markbmarkb Posts: 153member
    All I can say to people who are worried about the stock price is:



    BUY



    You really think the stock is gonna drop from here (~140) or stay flat? iPhone 2.0 in 3-5 months. It will at least create another speculatory bubble Also if AAPL announces one deal with China or Japan..chaching.



    Combine that with recent survey showing 20% or less of people buying a brand new pc are satisfied with Vista tells me that there are no true competitors for apples cpu products for at least the next 6months to a year.

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...mac_sales.html



    I do feel the iPod line is nearing a saturation point. Lots of advertising is going to be needed to boost sales much imo. I think the real growth opportunities are with appleTV, but they are going to have to have a well-crafted media blitz to sell it. It doesn't sell itself like the iPod, that $200-300 entry barrier is much steeper than netflix or the cable company.
  • Reply 42 of 74
    stubeckstubeck Posts: 140member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Splinemodel View Post


    The problem is that Wall Street is still pessimistic by default in regard to Apple: this is not so for the other big players in the same industries. You think they'd glance at their iPhones for a second and think it over. Apple is the only stock I own that can post great numbers and still drop 11 percent.



    I think the issue is that Apple's stock went up from 100 to 200 based on the iPhone and Leopard, essentially. People went nuts buying the stock and inflated its value. Is the iPhone and Leopard nice? Sure, but its not worth doubling the value of the company in a short period of time.



    Apple's stock has been going up and down incredibly in the last few weeks. I think its finally reaching a point where people can justify holding onto it, but I would have definitely sold it at 200 if I had it.
  • Reply 43 of 74
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by smokeonit View Post


    but the difference with the euro iphone is that, unlike in the US, the iphone can't be bought @ apple directly! thus making it impossible to give it as a gift! one has to give a coupon or something like that... an iphone in a box is not an option as a present!!! i think o2, t-mobile and orange underestimated the adverse effect of that shortsighted policy! the iphone can olny be activated via itunes anyway... to try to keep sales within the GSM provider stores is capping their sales by @ least 20%!





    I purchased an iphone handset from an o2 store, (could have purchased directly from the local AppleStore) took it home wrapped it as a birthday gift and then my wife opened it and activated it via iTunes. I don't understand your comments regarding not being able to purchase a boxed product and give as a gift. Is mainland Europe different to the UK in regards to purchasing an iphone.
  • Reply 44 of 74
    To me it is pretty clear what Apple should do: Go Europe, and even more important: Go Asia!!!

    America has to pay their debts, which requires more export, less import, less money available for consumption within U.S.A. and yes, probably, economic recession...



    But less consumption in America doesn't mean less money anywhere. China, India, Korea, Brazil, South Africa are getting rich, they have lots of money to spend on computers, music players and other fun stuff and there is lots of market share to be gained over there. Even here in Europe doesn't have the market share and doesn't prove the marketing effort it could do, even here there is a lot for Apple to gain (Bring iPhone, bring Movie rentals, FAST !!!)



    But looking as an investor: opening Flagship stores in emerging markets is what would give me confidence right now.
  • Reply 45 of 74
    I thought this was Apple's best quarter ever? What are the investors complaining about?



    Earlier yesterday everyone was raving about how much money they made...
  • Reply 46 of 74
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zorinlynx View Post


    I thought this was Apple's best quarter ever? What are the investors complaining about?



    Earlier yesterday everyone was raving about how much money they made...



    What they are complaining about has nothing to do with what Apple DID (because that was spectacular!), but what they SAID THEY WERE GOING TO DO next quarter!



    Apparently, Apple's GUESS about how next quarter's earnings will turn out is not as high as the so-called "analysts" GUESSES. Today, the FACT that Apple had a record quarter wins them no favor in the eyes of these analysts.



    The real stupidity in all of this (and I've been watching AAPL closely for over ten years) is that Apple's guesses of future performance (what they call "guidance") have always been low, even in the bad times. In other words, they have always beaten the tar out of their own guidance.



    The problem is that Apple announced just as "recession" is being talked about openly, the Fed has slashed interest rates in what looks like a desperate, panic move, and Bush announced a lame "economic stimulus" package where he plans to hand out free money to everyone except the poor. (And, by the way, that is just more printed money that we are borrowing from China.) Thus, Apple's announcement just happened to come at a time when investors are being stampeded into panic selling.



    Don't worry about what the day-traders and gutless cowards do to Apple's stock price in the next few days -- the company is stronger than ever and eventually its share price will recover and increase.
  • Reply 47 of 74
    ajmasajmas Posts: 601member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    The works out great column is larger than only the iPod. Is the Cube forever your subsequent whipping boy to pull out as the example of Apple's fallibility?



    Is their no realization that the Cube was seven years ago. No Mac has been in that position since.



    Yup. Apple is an innovations company (they rarely invent), taking the best ideas and putting them together and then selling the finished product. Apple has been known to get things wrong, but if you are going innovate there is always that risk, but it should also be noted that their successes far out-weigh their failures.



    Some stuff like the Cube and the Twentieth Anniversary Macintosh didn't succeed as other offerings have, but in many ways you have to ask yourself whether they even expected them to do so. The way I see it is that they were trying to appeal to a give market (price being an indicator) and at the same time the opportunity to take an R&D concept to the product line. This helps give them great market feedback, in a way that market research alone could never do.



    You look at other computer companies and while they have less duds, which I am surprised they have any at all, since it you aren't taking risks then you are going to lose very little. On the other hand by not taking risks you just end up keeping the market you already have and not push the boundary of computing in general.



    For me the computer industry has gained a lot having a company like Apple taking chances, in areas where conventional wisdom said they should have failed. Certainly they aren't alone, but they are the predominant here.
  • Reply 48 of 74
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Splinemodel View Post


    How the hell did the Air enter the discussion? From what I've been told, the first manuf run is already booked, and the flash variant is more popular than expected. A real failure it is ...



    I don't know where you heard all that, but I do agree that it's too soon to declare failure. People tripping over themselves in rushing to declare success or failure is not a good thing.
  • Reply 49 of 74
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macFanDave View Post


    What they are complaining about has nothing to do with what Apple DID (because that was spectacular!), but what they SAID THEY WERE GOING TO DO next quarter!



    Apparently, Apple's GUESS about how next quarter's earnings will turn out is not as high as the so-called "analysts" GUESSES. Today, the FACT that Apple had a record quarter wins them no favor in the eyes of these analysts.



    The past is already done though, in guessing / estimating the stock price the, the true concern is the future.



    But yesterday's deal was clearly an over reaction because the future is more than the next quarter or two, I'm hoping that a year from now, the current economic turmoil will just be a memory.
  • Reply 50 of 74
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by superkaratemonkeydeathcar View Post


    In a sketchy market, anything with a luxury shine is going to go down first. If you miss even this consensus silliness in a sketchy market, the stock will get Hammered!



    Good Stocks in Bad Markets make for fantastic buying opportunities, ala Proximityeffect.



    Apple still has the story. This drop is procyclical traders and people getting shaken out on volatility.



    Nobody ever made money by panicking.



    That last line there -- well stated my friend. Well stated.
  • Reply 51 of 74
    desarcdesarc Posts: 642member
    as for macbook air's "very strong orders"...



    the term "very strong orders" is marketing spin for "not as good as expected".

    it's almost as bad as saying "performing well".



    if they're not saying "above estimates", "more than expected", or something similar, it's bad.
  • Reply 52 of 74
    Well I guess I am not the only one that thinks Macworld 2008 was a bust. Steve has overestimated the buying public. The market is not that big for a small limited use laptop. Not enough power for business and too costly for the youth or college market. No new iPod or iPhone. What was that? And, he wants us to pay for the iPhone features he now will let us add to our iTouch. So let us suggest a few fixes to this.



    1) Increase the hard drive on the new laptop so we can carry the kitchen sink.



    2) Offer the update to the iTouch for free. Should have been that way from the beginning.



    3) Hurry up with a 3g iPhone. WiFi is not here fast enough. Or good enough.



    4) Not mentioned earlier but add a dvd drive or better a Blu-ray drive to Apple TV so you can really get some use out of the thing. Now it is just a joke like the mac mini.
  • Reply 53 of 74
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jdavy View Post


    Well I guess I am not the only one that thinks Macworld 2008 was a bust. Steve has overestimated the buying public. The market is not that big for a small limited use laptop. Not enough power for business and too costly for the youth or college market. No new iPod or iPhone. What was that? And, he wants us to pay for the iPhone features he now will let us add to our iTouch. So let us suggest a few fixes to this.



    1) Increase the hard drive on the new laptop so we can carry the kitchen sink.



    2) Offer the update to the iTouch for free. Should have been that way from the beginning.



    3) Hurry up with a 3g iPhone. WiFi is not here fast enough. Or good enough.



    4) Not mentioned earlier but add a dvd drive or better a Blu-ray drive to Apple TV so you can really get some use out of the thing. Now it is just a joke like the mac mini.



    Do you want to try again? Because you're almost completely wrong. To blame it on MacWorld 08 is to be completely ignorant of what's happening on the stock market, the job market, the housing market, oil prices and so on. If MacWorld 08 was to blame, this drop would have happened last week. If you're not willing or able to properly divine true cause and effect relationship, then you shouldn't opine like that.
  • Reply 54 of 74
    JeffDM



    I disagree. The market has dumped 15% since October 2007. Apple has fallen from over $202 a share to under $136 as we now check it. That is 49% drop for Apple. You could argue that apple products are considered luxuries and that is hurting their demand but to say the market is cause in totality is a joke.



    BTW I have a friend who is sitting on Apple options and rode this thing down. Do you have any money riding on Apple?



    Also I am a big fan of Apple. I have owned every iPod model since the 3rd Generation. I currently have 2 5th generations for my kids, a new Pink iPod Nano for my wife, 2 iTouches, 2 MacBook Pro's and 2 iMacs. And lastly my local Apple store and I are on a first name basis as I visit them so often. Last night when I picked up the pink iPod they asked me what took me so long to come and get one. LOL



    Steve,



    I know you read posts like this. Consider some of my suggestions and that from others. The year is still very young. We have over 330 days more to 2008 and I am sure Macworld is not your last event with new product announcements.
  • Reply 55 of 74
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jdavy View Post


    JeffDM



    I disagree. The market has dumped 15% since October 2007. Apple has fallen from over $202 a share to under $136 as we now check it. That is 49% drop for Apple. You could argue that apple products are considered luxuries and that is hurting their demand but to say the market is cause in totality is a joke.



    That's a 33% drop, I don't know where you can get 49%. It's not good, but it's also not good to overstate your case with bad numbers.



    I didn't say it was just the stock market. I gave several factors that probably contributed to the slide. To attribute most of this week's drop to MWSF like you seemed to suggest is a bigger joke. Investors had all of last week to "comment" on MWSF. Also keep in mind that last quarter's job creation data was also released on MWSF keynote day, so that probably contributed to last week's drop, which isn't nearly as bad as this week's drop. The job market sucked last quarter, and continuing data suggests a recession this year.



    Quote:

    BTW I have a friend who is sitting on Apple options and rode this thing down. Do you have any money riding on Apple?



    I don't have anything in Apple. I felt it was getting a bit high anyway, now, I think it's a bit low.



    Personally, I think this is all a bunch of needless hysterics. There's life during and after a recession, and even if MB Air completely fails, it is not going to kill Apple. I'd like a Blu-Ray drive but maybe it's too soon to expect that, WB made their decision only a week before then, that's definitely not enough time to react. Blu-Ray is such a tiny fraction of the optical disc market right now anyway. I hope Apple will sell something this year, and I hope even more that Apple offers an upgrade for existing Mac Pros too.
  • Reply 56 of 74
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jdavy View Post


    Well I guess I am not the only one that thinks Macworld 2008 was a bust. Steve has overestimated the buying public. The market is not that big for a small limited use laptop. Not enough power for business and too costly for the youth or college market. No new iPod or iPhone. What was that? And, he wants us to pay for the iPhone features he now will let us add to our iTouch. So let us suggest a few fixes to this.



    I'll have to add my voice of disagreement with your reasoning.



    I'm not sold on the Air, and agree that it has a more limited market than the MacBook or MacBook Pro, but it is not a dud product. There are plenty of people who travel - either by air or train - and need/could use a light machine to use while they are away from the office. Salesmen, anyone doing presentations, doctors, lawyers, professors, the traveling businessman.



    Quote:

    1) Increase the hard drive on the new laptop so we can carry the kitchen sink.



    Not needed. It is intended as a satellite machine. You load up one business trip's worth of stuff on it, and maybe some movies, music, and games.



    Quote:

    2) Offer the update to the iTouch for free. Should have been that way from the beginning.



    We've seen Apple charge for nominal updates before - to the Airport I believe. The charge for this update may be related to SOX. Apple jiggled some accounting to get around it in the past, but this may be a case where they just HAD to charge something to comply with the law.



    Quote:

    3) Hurry up with a 3g iPhone. WiFi is not here fast enough. Or good enough.



    IIRC, one of the reasons Apple did not start with 3G is battery life. 3G sucks batteries more than EDGE and WiFi. So they traded off speed for length of use.



    Quote:

    4) Not mentioned earlier but add a dvd drive or better a Blu-ray drive to Apple TV so you can really get some use out of the thing. Now it is just a joke like the mac mini.



    I happen to like the mini. Also, people have been saying the same thing about the iPods for forever. "Where's the FM tuner?" "No voice recording?" "How about a built in laser pointer?"



    When Steve came back, one of the things he did was DRASTICALLY cut the number of products Apple makes. Apple has maintained a very limited product line up, and I think it has been a good strategy. There's no need for new MacBooks or MBPs, they just need to keep getting speed bumps till Apple decides to do a case redesign. (Although a mini-tower would be a welcome addition.)



    - Jasen.
  • Reply 57 of 74
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:

    Increase the hard drive on the new laptop so we can carry the kitchen sink.



    Actually I do think they could increase the HD some. 120GB case is not larger than the 80GB case. But the Air is not intended to be your main machine.



    Quote:

    Offer the update to the iTouch for free. Should have been that way from the beginning.



    Apple accounts for the iPhone and Apple TV over a 24 month period. It does not for the Touch. $20 for 5 new apps is not a lot of money



    Quote:

    Hurry up with a 3g iPhone. WiFi is not here fast enough. Or good enough.



    WiFi as a standard is faster than 3G. Just not as ubiquitous.
  • Reply 58 of 74
    28 freaking points!!!



  • Reply 59 of 74
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by superkaratemonkeydeathcar View Post


    Nobody ever made money by panicking.



    People buy stocks because they are already panicking. The whole system is driven by fear.



    People fear inflation, so they invest, and create the inflation they fear.



    The entrepreneur who goes public is also driven by fear. He thinks that without the money he will fail, and cannot accomplish what he set out to do. He sells his soul, loses the company, and becomes rich. Then he goes off and buys the souls of others.



    Fear has a nasty way of winning, and spreading. Nothing spreads fear like money does. The love of money is just the fear of not having money.



    Courage is knowing what not to fear. -Plato
  • Reply 60 of 74
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by augur View Post


    People buy stocks because they are already panicking. The whole system is driven by fear.



    What?



    Quote:

    People fear inflation, so they invest, and create the inflation they fear.



    I've never heard of it expressed that way, and I don't think it makes sense to say it that way either. Inflation happens anyway. Even if there was no inflation, it makes good sense to invest.



    Quote:

    The entrepreneur who goes public is also driven by fear. He thinks that without the money he will fail, and cannot accomplish what he set out to do. He sells his soul, loses the company, and becomes rich. Then he goes off and buys the souls of others.



    I think you're pushing this fear hypothesis a bit far.
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