I'm not going to actually invest any money until the summer, I'm just putting together a model portfolio on yahoo (so that I can look at it every day and get emotionally used to the swings in value). So far, this is what I have put together...
Home Equity/ Money Market and/or Treasuries 55%
VGSIX 10%
- Commerical real estate REIT index. The dividend (4.77%) will take a bit of a hit during the recession as vacancy rates in malls and such rise, but it has been pretty hard hit over the last year so I think that the recession is already priced in.
Cisco 5%
- I think that the company is fairly priced at $30, at $22 it is a very good buy
Starbucks 5%
- Seems like a good buy, also
XLF 5%
- Financial sector index. I think that they are at bottom (or they will be by summer anyway)
Apple 5%
- I still think that 140 is overpriced, based on recession fears and iPod business being zero growth, but by summer hopefully they will be under 100.
XOM 5%
- Oil and gas prices will only go up due to peak oil, oil companies seem to have larger margins as oil prices go up... Is this the best oil company?
Nobody is thinking of investing in AAPL (Apple) or MA (MasterCard)?
I invested in these a little over a year ago and have accumulated a small fortune. I simply opened an online account, payed some attention to the market, and bought on dips.
AAPL right now at $135 is a GIFT! Buy now because it will be back at $200 per share in no time!
MA just went up almost $30 to somewhere close to $210. I highly recommend both!
The great thing about you guys investing in AAPL, is that many of you know the ins and outs, being that your a part of this website's board. Thats how u make the money. You read rumors, evaluate patens and speculate. I myself purchased a bunch of AAPL stock back in mid 2006 because after a few patents posted on this and a few other sites, I felt I knew VERY confidently that an iPhone and a iPod Touch would come out. Guess what, I was right, and made a boatload of money! There is still TONS AND TONS of money to be made with AAPL over the next 5-10 years, especially in Options Trading.
Some of you guys should check out Options Trading. Thats a sick game, especially with AAPL.
It looks to be kind of a dangerous time to invest - if you invest in the US what if the dollar keeps on dropping? If you invest overseas what if the dollar rebounds? What about recession, inflation, rising interest rates, bad loans and problems borrowing money as a result (even for good companies)?
I am looking at commercial REITs - they seem low now, provide income, and have average returns greater than the stock market. The only stocks that look like good buys right now are Cisco and Starbucks.
What are you investing in/thinking of investing in?
real estate ... just before the market takes a dive
The commercial real estate REITs have already taken that dive - they dropped in half in the last year. Do you think that they will drop further?
It gets hard to understand what is meant by a drop. The fed is basically tossing money out of helicopters in my view. This makes it much harder to figure out what the bottom will be due to inflationary pressure now banging against deflationary pricing.
As an example let us say that some property you have been looking at went from $100k to $400k in these oh so fast and free times. Let us further say that this property is now bank-owned and is being offered for $300k. Do I think that is the bottom? No but here is where it gets complicated. Suppose I thought the property would revert to the mean and as such would drop much further, possibly all the way to $125k-150k. The reality is that the fed is tossing loads of liquidity out there, the dollars is falling and as such we now have to guess what number of "Bernarke dollars" will be worth what would have really been $125k to 150k before. Will it be $200... $225... $250k...no one knows until the fed stops pumping.
No one can really know this but the fed. At some point the numbers will swing and that will be the bottom. There will be enough new money out there that suddenly people will realize that $2000 in todays dollars is really $1200 in 1998 dollars or so and we can figure out and price things accordingly. However for now we are just all guessing due to the fed completely giving up the fight on inflation.
So we have both more falling prices but also falling currency to account for when trying to determine a bottom. In California where I live, we still have another 15-25% to go from the prices of bank-owned properties. Non-bank owned properties can forget it for now. They still aren't close to real prices.
Some of you guys should check out Options Trading. Thats a sick game, especially with AAPL.
Don't go there on this board. Options trading is something that should not be pursued by the vast majority of people here - no matter how smart they think they are.
I read this thread just for fun.... some interesting opinions.
As for me?... This week I bought Apple, Intel, and Micron Technology. Long term holdings for me, I don't do the day-trading game... I just don't see them being anywhere but up a year from now.
Hay - can you all do me a favor, if you go to your local mall, can you post about how busy they are? I was sick for the last week, and spent the time watching CNBC - they were saying that 50% of the population has no disposable income left (up from 30% a year ago), and that the malls are dead zones.
I am pretty scared about investing in VGSIX now - commercial real estate looks pretty risky if nobody is spending any money. Also, residential real estate could be starting a 20 year bear market as the baby boomers sell their houses and move to Florida. The guy on the boob tube said that house prices could drop in half over the next 10 years.
I am pretty scared about investing in VGSIX now - commercial real estate looks pretty risky if nobody is spending any money. .
I really wonder about commercial real estate. I've had a theory for a few years now that technology will reduce the demand for commercial real estate.
With internet distribution of goods there should be less demand for bricks and mortar store fronts. Also I know in my particular business that technology will soon replace the need for a transcriptionist. Therefore I won't need a room in my office for someone to do in house transcription.
I really wonder about commercial real estate. I've had a theory for a few years now that technology will reduce the demand for commercial real estate.
With internet distribution of goods there should be less demand for bricks and mortar store fronts. Also I know in my particular business that technology will soon replace the need for a transcriptionist. Therefore I won't need a room in my office for someone to do in house transcription.
I'm sure there are a lot of similar examples.
I think Apple Stores and the fact Dell is moving into retail is a refutation of that. The store fronts will need to change though. The need to be solution providers and not just places where you stack boxes and push extended warranties.
I think Apple Stores and the fact Dell is moving into retail is a refutation of that. The store fronts will need to change though. The need to be solution providers and not just places where you stack boxes and push extended warranties.
Dell is pulling out of retail - they are closing all of their mall kiosks.
Comments
Who run Barter Town?
Home Equity/ Money Market and/or Treasuries 55%
VGSIX 10%
- Commerical real estate REIT index. The dividend (4.77%) will take a bit of a hit during the recession as vacancy rates in malls and such rise, but it has been pretty hard hit over the last year so I think that the recession is already priced in.
Cisco 5%
- I think that the company is fairly priced at $30, at $22 it is a very good buy
Starbucks 5%
- Seems like a good buy, also
XLF 5%
- Financial sector index. I think that they are at bottom (or they will be by summer anyway)
Apple 5%
- I still think that 140 is overpriced, based on recession fears and iPod business being zero growth, but by summer hopefully they will be under 100.
XOM 5%
- Oil and gas prices will only go up due to peak oil, oil companies seem to have larger margins as oil prices go up... Is this the best oil company?
LMT 5%
BA 5%
- Based on this thread
ARUN
I am dumping my money into Aruba Networks. Take a look.
ARUN
Really? Thats neat to hear on this board. I'm a network admin and we moved away from the Cisco Aironet to Aruba.
Ask me how I like the product compared to the Cisco product.
P.S. We are not a small shop.
Bread, Beans, Bullets and Booze.
Who run Barter Town?
Thanks for the links Artman. I'm going to go invest in a gun now!
http://link.brightcove.com/services/...ctid1380790704
So it seems Trump is selling $30 million pricetag apartments to people from abroad during this period of the "weak $$$"
Fellows
http://www.sustainablebusiness.com/i...TOKEN=41238776
Fellows
I invested in these a little over a year ago and have accumulated a small fortune. I simply opened an online account, payed some attention to the market, and bought on dips.
AAPL right now at $135 is a GIFT! Buy now because it will be back at $200 per share in no time!
MA just went up almost $30 to somewhere close to $210. I highly recommend both!
The great thing about you guys investing in AAPL, is that many of you know the ins and outs, being that your a part of this website's board. Thats how u make the money. You read rumors, evaluate patens and speculate. I myself purchased a bunch of AAPL stock back in mid 2006 because after a few patents posted on this and a few other sites, I felt I knew VERY confidently that an iPhone and a iPod Touch would come out. Guess what, I was right, and made a boatload of money! There is still TONS AND TONS of money to be made with AAPL over the next 5-10 years, especially in Options Trading.
Some of you guys should check out Options Trading. Thats a sick game, especially with AAPL.
It looks to be kind of a dangerous time to invest - if you invest in the US what if the dollar keeps on dropping? If you invest overseas what if the dollar rebounds? What about recession, inflation, rising interest rates, bad loans and problems borrowing money as a result (even for good companies)?
I am looking at commercial REITs - they seem low now, provide income, and have average returns greater than the stock market. The only stocks that look like good buys right now are Cisco and Starbucks.
What are you investing in/thinking of investing in?
real estate ... just before the market takes a dive
real estate ... just before the market takes a dive
The commercial real estate REITs have already taken that dive - they dropped in half in the last year. Do you think that they will drop further?
The commercial real estate REITs have already taken that dive - they dropped in half in the last year. Do you think that they will drop further?
It gets hard to understand what is meant by a drop. The fed is basically tossing money out of helicopters in my view. This makes it much harder to figure out what the bottom will be due to inflationary pressure now banging against deflationary pricing.
As an example let us say that some property you have been looking at went from $100k to $400k in these oh so fast and free times. Let us further say that this property is now bank-owned and is being offered for $300k. Do I think that is the bottom? No but here is where it gets complicated. Suppose I thought the property would revert to the mean and as such would drop much further, possibly all the way to $125k-150k. The reality is that the fed is tossing loads of liquidity out there, the dollars is falling and as such we now have to guess what number of "Bernarke dollars" will be worth what would have really been $125k to 150k before. Will it be $200... $225... $250k...no one knows until the fed stops pumping.
No one can really know this but the fed. At some point the numbers will swing and that will be the bottom. There will be enough new money out there that suddenly people will realize that $2000 in todays dollars is really $1200 in 1998 dollars or so and we can figure out and price things accordingly. However for now we are just all guessing due to the fed completely giving up the fight on inflation.
So we have both more falling prices but also falling currency to account for when trying to determine a bottom. In California where I live, we still have another 15-25% to go from the prices of bank-owned properties. Non-bank owned properties can forget it for now. They still aren't close to real prices.
Some of you guys should check out Options Trading. Thats a sick game, especially with AAPL.
Don't go there on this board. Options trading is something that should not be pursued by the vast majority of people here - no matter how smart they think they are.
As for me?... This week I bought Apple, Intel, and Micron Technology. Long term holdings for me, I don't do the day-trading game... I just don't see them being anywhere but up a year from now.
I am pretty scared about investing in VGSIX now - commercial real estate looks pretty risky if nobody is spending any money. Also, residential real estate could be starting a 20 year bear market as the baby boomers sell their houses and move to Florida. The guy on the boob tube said that house prices could drop in half over the next 10 years.
I am pretty scared about investing in VGSIX now - commercial real estate looks pretty risky if nobody is spending any money. .
I really wonder about commercial real estate. I've had a theory for a few years now that technology will reduce the demand for commercial real estate.
With internet distribution of goods there should be less demand for bricks and mortar store fronts. Also I know in my particular business that technology will soon replace the need for a transcriptionist. Therefore I won't need a room in my office for someone to do in house transcription.
I'm sure there are a lot of similar examples.
I really wonder about commercial real estate. I've had a theory for a few years now that technology will reduce the demand for commercial real estate.
With internet distribution of goods there should be less demand for bricks and mortar store fronts. Also I know in my particular business that technology will soon replace the need for a transcriptionist. Therefore I won't need a room in my office for someone to do in house transcription.
I'm sure there are a lot of similar examples.
I think Apple Stores and the fact Dell is moving into retail is a refutation of that. The store fronts will need to change though. The need to be solution providers and not just places where you stack boxes and push extended warranties.
I think Apple Stores and the fact Dell is moving into retail is a refutation of that. The store fronts will need to change though. The need to be solution providers and not just places where you stack boxes and push extended warranties.
Dell is pulling out of retail - they are closing all of their mall kiosks.