I have this nagging sense that the Iphone 3g enterprize is going to be a failure. Even though I own apple stock, I can't see people making "gilded age" purchases when cities are going bankrupt.
No one really cares about 3g except us computer geeks and even we are struggling with the downsizing taking place in tech companies, financial institutions
(thinking Bear Stearns specifically), etc. I can't imagine what people are facing in the heartland of the US, where work is scarce and being outsourced everyday to foreign lands.
Anyone care to discuss?
I also disagree. 3G may be the geeky thing, but it has been played up from iPhones inception that this was the only thing missing (almost). IMHO I think many folks have delayed their purchase awaiting 3G - I certainly have - and now that there are rumblings of AT&T offering a $200.00 incentive, you can bet I think the wait was well worth it. What with all the new apps being developed, this may be bigger than RIMM ever emagined! - obviously. Count me in for a couple within the first week or so...
*Typical American Sentiment = Out here in the "heartland" no one gives a hoot about cities going bankrupt, or what Greenspan says, we have been living off credit for years and another couple of hundred bucks won't break anybody (you already had a cell phone anyway didn't you?)
Yes, a robust economy would double or triple immediate purchases, but when the Wall Street Journal is saying that the bottom has been reached, then I think folks are looking past this relatively short term problem to better days. Hell, if we hadn't talked about how bad it was, it wouldn't be such a self fulfilling prophecy.
Want to bet we're in a recession? The supposed tiny growth last quarter will be, as always, subject to adjustment. Which way do you think that will go?
Any reason to think that the economists who compile the statistics are so dumb that they make predictable mistakes in their growth numbers? No? The revision may me up, may be down, may be zero. There's no way to know.
Quote:
I'm willing to bet that the present quarter will be even worse.
That's what makes a market - but you're only guessing about the future. I would not be surprised if growth stayed above zero. I would not be surprised if growth was higher than last quarter but below 1%. I WOULD be surprised if growth was over 1.5%, or lower than -1%. But I hope you understand that no matter what you're willing to bet, no recession has yet begun.
Quote:
Economists have been saying for several months now, that this will be one of the worst recessions since the end of WW II. And that it will be one of the longest.
Is that what they say? Which economists? Do any of them have a crystal ball? Economic forecasts are just that, forecasts. They don't reflect reality, nor do the cause their prediction to occur. So it may be the worst recession in 40 years, but as of now, there's no recession whatsoever, and Apple has continued to set sales records of their high end consumer discretionary products regardless. Doesn't that fact matter to you when you suggest doom and gloom?
Quote:
I'm happy for S. Dakota. how many iPhones do you think Apple will sell there/ A thousand? That'll do it.
Doesn't SOUND like you're happy for anybody, least of all S Dakota.
Any reason to think that the economists who compile the statistics are so dumb that they make predictable mistakes in their growth numbers? No? The revision may me up, may be down, may be zero. There's no way to know.
So far, almost every economic number that has come out during this administration has been revised downward. As most economists agree that we are in a recession, I think it's safe to assume that it won't be any different this time.
Quote:
That's what makes a market - but you're only guessing about the future. I would not be surprised if growth stayed above zero. I would not be surprised if growth was higher than last quarter but below 1%. I WOULD be surprised if growth was over 1.5%, or lower than -1%. But I hope you understand that no matter what you're willing to bet, no recession has yet begun.
No. Again, most economists disagree with what you say. It's also being said that this quarter WILL be worse than the last one. Can you show evidence that this is wrong?
Quote:
Is that what they say? Which economists? Do any of them have a crystal ball? Economic forecasts are just that, forecasts. They don't reflect reality, nor do the cause their prediction to occur. So it may be the worst recession in 40 years, but as of now, there's no recession whatsoever, and Apple has continued to set sales records of their high end consumer discretionary products regardless. Doesn't that fact matter to you when you suggest doom and gloom?
You can state that as many times as you like. It's still wrong.
Quote:
Doesn't SOUND like you're happy for anybody, least of all S Dakota.
Now, you're a wiseass. Yes, we do make a typo now and again. That doesn't change the facts of the argument.
I'm sorry if you thought I was being a wiseass, but the argument was about typographical style. The fact that you made a typo was sort of funny in that context.
So far, almost every economic number that has come out during this administration has been revised downward. As most economists agree that we are in a recession, I think it's safe to assume that it won't be any different this time.
I don't agree. Most economists believe we are in a "slowdown" and that growth is only slightly positive. I think you're making things up when you suggest that "most" economists disagree with the official numbers.
Quote:
No. Again, most economists disagree with what you say. It's also being said that this quarter WILL be worse than the last one. Can you show evidence that this is wrong?
Again, you say most economists disagree with me (I said that I thought this current quarter could see growth between -1% and 1%, and that no recession had yet begun), but I have not seen any proof of that. Who, besides Greenspan who made up a new type of economic growth, makes up this "most" economists?
I don't claim to be able to see the future, that's your job. I am only going on actual past results which show us still growing. The employment, price and interim growth numbers that have come out in the past month seem to me, taken as a whole, to show that the economy may very well hold steady this quarter. I don't see things getting worse than they were last quarter at the moment. Of course every day new things happen and things could change week to week.
Quote:
Did you fall on your head today?
I'd rather sound like I fell on my head than sound like I kick my dog daily. You?
the man has done little but toot the horn loud, hard & long for the wealthy elite while taking away rights from workers...all the while saying, "this is best for you."
ugh.
btw: what's not often written of is that, yes, there are still new jobs opening up here & there in whatever sector of the U.S. economy one might care to examine...but, the inescapable trend ever since the famous .com bust has been that these new jobs are paying much, much less than before.
What recession? A recession is negative economic growth for two strait quarters. While the economy has slowed some we are currently not in a recession. In fact South Dakota's economy is doing quite well right now.
diskimage is right. Growth quarter after quarter does not mean "recession", even if it is
tiny growth. I've been saying this for a year or more, now. Why does the media (or
the government, or someone) want to convince us that "smaller growth" (which is still
growth) is a "recession"? How do 'they' benefit if we accept such a gloomy picture? Hmm?
Also, two spaces after a full stop is correct. Call me old-fashioned if you like; it's
more readable, and I like it, and I'll keep doing it, thank you.
I don't agree. Most economists believe we are in a "slowdown" and that growth is only slightly positive. I think you're making things up when you suggest that "most" economists disagree with the official numbers.
I'm not making anything up. I've no reason to. slowdown is right. We've slowed to a halt, and are moving slowly backwards.
Quote:
Again, you say most economists disagree with me (I said that I thought this current quarter could see growth between -1% and 1%, and that no recession had yet begun), but I have not seen any proof of that. Who, besides Greenspan who made up a new type of economic growth, makes up this "most" economists?
Well, at least you agree that we MAY be in a ression now.
I don't know the names of most economists, do you? I just read the reports published in the Times and WSJ.
Quote:
I don't claim to be able to see the future, that's your job. I am only going on actual past results which show us still growing. The employment, price and interim growth numbers that have come out in the past month seem to me, taken as a whole, to show that the economy may very well hold steady this quarter. I don't see things getting worse than they were last quarter at the moment. Of course every day new things happen and things could change week to week.
You predict the future every time you make one of your pronouncements here about Apple, which you do. i don't see anything different with this.
You're hedging yout bets, I see.
The market today isn't so sanguine. Look at how much it dropped.
Quote:
I'd rather sound like I fell on my head than sound like I kick my dog daily. You?
P.S. I sent the link in a couple of days ago to AI. Thought they would have picked up on it by now. Although I haven't had time to go thru the entire article as yet, it may need further confirming to warrant re-publication.
I'm not making anything up. I've no reason to. slowdown is right. We've slowed to a halt, and are moving slowly backwards.
Yes, slowly backwards at 0.6% positive growth... uh huh....
Quote:
Well, at least you agree that we MAY be in a ression now.
Ya think? I definitely do not "agree" that we may be in a recession now. There is zero chance that we're in a recession now, since growth last quarter was positive. After two quarters of negative growth we will be (if that happens) but "now" will never be part of a recession.
Quote:
The market today isn't so sanguine. Look at how much it dropped.
Is that how you classify a recession? No wonder you're talking past me. Every day's market change indicates recession or growth in the economy, I had no idea. Is that what they teach you in the WSJ? I think you're reading the wrong sections!
Anyway you're a bitter guy, I'm done arguing these semantics. The official growth numbers show that you're wrong, but you've convinced yourself of what you believe, and no external information will change that, so why waste everyone's time? This isn't an economics forum anyway, we were talking about Apple's prospects for the iPhone, and your opinions on that are equally fixed (and equally contrary to reality, by the way).
Ya think? I definitely do not "agree" that we may be in a recession now. There is zero chance that we're in a recession now, since growth last quarter was positive. After two quarters of negative growth we will be (if that happens) but "now" will never be part of a recession.
I think the problem is that it's not compliant with the definition of a recession until two negative quarters have passed. But aren't those two negative quarters part of the recession, or is that completely ignored? Or is it an after-the-fact determination applied to those two quarters? So "now" might be part of a recession, we won't know absolutely sure until October. All this is sounding like Schrödinger's cat.
All this is a bit of an aside discussion. Even with a weak quarter, Apple's remained pretty strong.
Comments
Maybe the best economic brain currently around, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan, could enlighten you.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...jPc&refer=home
Greenspan is responsible for much of this mess, though he's been trying to wriggle out of it. His legacy won't be what he wanted it to be.
I'd rather look back to Paul Volker, who as Greenspan's boss, got us out of the mess of the '80's.
I have this nagging sense that the Iphone 3g enterprize is going to be a failure. Even though I own apple stock, I can't see people making "gilded age" purchases when cities are going bankrupt.
No one really cares about 3g except us computer geeks and even we are struggling with the downsizing taking place in tech companies, financial institutions
(thinking Bear Stearns specifically), etc. I can't imagine what people are facing in the heartland of the US, where work is scarce and being outsourced everyday to foreign lands.
Anyone care to discuss?
I also disagree. 3G may be the geeky thing, but it has been played up from iPhones inception that this was the only thing missing (almost). IMHO I think many folks have delayed their purchase awaiting 3G - I certainly have - and now that there are rumblings of AT&T offering a $200.00 incentive, you can bet I think the wait was well worth it. What with all the new apps being developed, this may be bigger than RIMM ever emagined! - obviously. Count me in for a couple within the first week or so...
*Typical American Sentiment = Out here in the "heartland" no one gives a hoot about cities going bankrupt, or what Greenspan says, we have been living off credit for years and another couple of hundred bucks won't break anybody (you already had a cell phone anyway didn't you?)
Yes, a robust economy would double or triple immediate purchases, but when the Wall Street Journal is saying that the bottom has been reached, then I think folks are looking past this relatively short term problem to better days. Hell, if we hadn't talked about how bad it was, it wouldn't be such a self fulfilling prophecy.
Just some thoughts from the hinterlands...
That was true forever—for typographically done work.
But for typed pages, such as memo's, two spaces is still considered to be the norm.
Plurals never take apostrophes (it's memos, not memo's).
Sorry, force of habit. I've just graded fifty papers and circled the same error four or five times. You'd think English majors would know by now...
That was true forever?for typographically done work.
But for typed pages, such as memo's, two spaces is still considered to be the norm.
What's considered the norm for appropriate use of apostrophes in plural, non-possessive words?
Want to bet we're in a recession? The supposed tiny growth last quarter will be, as always, subject to adjustment. Which way do you think that will go?
Any reason to think that the economists who compile the statistics are so dumb that they make predictable mistakes in their growth numbers? No? The revision may me up, may be down, may be zero. There's no way to know.
I'm willing to bet that the present quarter will be even worse.
That's what makes a market - but you're only guessing about the future. I would not be surprised if growth stayed above zero. I would not be surprised if growth was higher than last quarter but below 1%. I WOULD be surprised if growth was over 1.5%, or lower than -1%. But I hope you understand that no matter what you're willing to bet, no recession has yet begun.
Economists have been saying for several months now, that this will be one of the worst recessions since the end of WW II. And that it will be one of the longest.
Is that what they say? Which economists? Do any of them have a crystal ball? Economic forecasts are just that, forecasts. They don't reflect reality, nor do the cause their prediction to occur. So it may be the worst recession in 40 years, but as of now, there's no recession whatsoever, and Apple has continued to set sales records of their high end consumer discretionary products regardless. Doesn't that fact matter to you when you suggest doom and gloom?
I'm happy for S. Dakota. how many iPhones do you think Apple will sell there/ A thousand? That'll do it.
Doesn't SOUND like you're happy for anybody, least of all S Dakota.
Plurals never take apostrophes (it's memos, not memo's).
Sorry, force of habit. I've just graded fifty papers and circled the same error four or five times. You'd think English majors would know by now...
Now, you're a wiseass. Yes, we do make a typo now and again. That doesn't change the facts of the argument.
What's considered the norm for appropriate use of apostrophes in plural, non-possessive words?
I just went through that, smartypants.
Any reason to think that the economists who compile the statistics are so dumb that they make predictable mistakes in their growth numbers? No? The revision may me up, may be down, may be zero. There's no way to know.
So far, almost every economic number that has come out during this administration has been revised downward. As most economists agree that we are in a recession, I think it's safe to assume that it won't be any different this time.
That's what makes a market - but you're only guessing about the future. I would not be surprised if growth stayed above zero. I would not be surprised if growth was higher than last quarter but below 1%. I WOULD be surprised if growth was over 1.5%, or lower than -1%. But I hope you understand that no matter what you're willing to bet, no recession has yet begun.
No. Again, most economists disagree with what you say. It's also being said that this quarter WILL be worse than the last one. Can you show evidence that this is wrong?
Is that what they say? Which economists? Do any of them have a crystal ball? Economic forecasts are just that, forecasts. They don't reflect reality, nor do the cause their prediction to occur. So it may be the worst recession in 40 years, but as of now, there's no recession whatsoever, and Apple has continued to set sales records of their high end consumer discretionary products regardless. Doesn't that fact matter to you when you suggest doom and gloom?
You can state that as many times as you like. It's still wrong.
Doesn't SOUND like you're happy for anybody, least of all S Dakota.
Did you fall on your head today?
Now, you're a wiseass. Yes, we do make a typo now and again. That doesn't change the facts of the argument.
I'm sorry if you thought I was being a wiseass, but the argument was about typographical style. The fact that you made a typo was sort of funny in that context.
So far, almost every economic number that has come out during this administration has been revised downward. As most economists agree that we are in a recession, I think it's safe to assume that it won't be any different this time.
I don't agree. Most economists believe we are in a "slowdown" and that growth is only slightly positive. I think you're making things up when you suggest that "most" economists disagree with the official numbers.
No. Again, most economists disagree with what you say. It's also being said that this quarter WILL be worse than the last one. Can you show evidence that this is wrong?
Again, you say most economists disagree with me (I said that I thought this current quarter could see growth between -1% and 1%, and that no recession had yet begun), but I have not seen any proof of that. Who, besides Greenspan who made up a new type of economic growth, makes up this "most" economists?
I don't claim to be able to see the future, that's your job. I am only going on actual past results which show us still growing. The employment, price and interim growth numbers that have come out in the past month seem to me, taken as a whole, to show that the economy may very well hold steady this quarter. I don't see things getting worse than they were last quarter at the moment. Of course every day new things happen and things could change week to week.
Did you fall on your head today?
I'd rather sound like I fell on my head than sound like I kick my dog daily. You?
Maybe the best economic brain currently around, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan, could enlighten you.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...jPc&refer=home
greenspan = goebbels
the man has done little but toot the horn loud, hard & long for the wealthy elite while taking away rights from workers...all the while saying, "this is best for you."
ugh.
btw: what's not often written of is that, yes, there are still new jobs opening up here & there in whatever sector of the U.S. economy one might care to examine...but, the inescapable trend ever since the famous .com bust has been that these new jobs are paying much, much less than before.
I just went through that, smartypants.
Mel, most of the replies have been lighthearted. Lighten up.
What recession? A recession is negative economic growth for two strait quarters. While the economy has slowed some we are currently not in a recession. In fact South Dakota's economy is doing quite well right now.
diskimage is right. Growth quarter after quarter does not mean "recession", even if it is
tiny growth. I've been saying this for a year or more, now. Why does the media (or
the government, or someone) want to convince us that "smaller growth" (which is still
growth) is a "recession"? How do 'they' benefit if we accept such a gloomy picture? Hmm?
Also, two spaces after a full stop is correct. Call me old-fashioned if you like; it's
more readable, and I like it, and I'll keep doing it, thank you.
I don't agree. Most economists believe we are in a "slowdown" and that growth is only slightly positive. I think you're making things up when you suggest that "most" economists disagree with the official numbers.
I'm not making anything up. I've no reason to. slowdown is right. We've slowed to a halt, and are moving slowly backwards.
Again, you say most economists disagree with me (I said that I thought this current quarter could see growth between -1% and 1%, and that no recession had yet begun), but I have not seen any proof of that. Who, besides Greenspan who made up a new type of economic growth, makes up this "most" economists?
Well, at least you agree that we MAY be in a ression now.
I don't know the names of most economists, do you? I just read the reports published in the Times and WSJ.
I don't claim to be able to see the future, that's your job. I am only going on actual past results which show us still growing. The employment, price and interim growth numbers that have come out in the past month seem to me, taken as a whole, to show that the economy may very well hold steady this quarter. I don't see things getting worse than they were last quarter at the moment. Of course every day new things happen and things could change week to week.
You predict the future every time you make one of your pronouncements here about Apple, which you do. i don't see anything different with this.
You're hedging yout bets, I see.
The market today isn't so sanguine. Look at how much it dropped.
I'd rather sound like I fell on my head than sound like I kick my dog daily. You?
If you have a dog, I'll kick it for you.
Mel, most of the replies have been lighthearted. Lighten up.
Three in a row was too much, even for me.
Three in a row was too much, even for me.
Even for a patient saint like yourself! Amazing!
Three in a row was too much, even for me.
BTW, this is not the thread for it, but I was right about Blu Ray not growing quickly, despite HD-DVD's demise.
BTW, this is not the thread for it, but I was right about Blu Ray not growing quickly, despite HD-DVD's demise.
This may explain some of it. http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...dominance.html
P.S. I sent the link in a couple of days ago to AI. Thought they would have picked up on it by now. Although I haven't had time to go thru the entire article as yet, it may need further confirming to warrant re-publication.
I'm not making anything up. I've no reason to. slowdown is right. We've slowed to a halt, and are moving slowly backwards.
Yes, slowly backwards at 0.6% positive growth... uh huh....
Well, at least you agree that we MAY be in a ression now.
Ya think? I definitely do not "agree" that we may be in a recession now. There is zero chance that we're in a recession now, since growth last quarter was positive. After two quarters of negative growth we will be (if that happens) but "now" will never be part of a recession.
The market today isn't so sanguine. Look at how much it dropped.
Is that how you classify a recession? No wonder you're talking past me. Every day's market change indicates recession or growth in the economy, I had no idea. Is that what they teach you in the WSJ? I think you're reading the wrong sections!
Anyway you're a bitter guy, I'm done arguing these semantics. The official growth numbers show that you're wrong, but you've convinced yourself of what you believe, and no external information will change that, so why waste everyone's time? This isn't an economics forum anyway, we were talking about Apple's prospects for the iPhone, and your opinions on that are equally fixed (and equally contrary to reality, by the way).
Ya think? I definitely do not "agree" that we may be in a recession now. There is zero chance that we're in a recession now, since growth last quarter was positive. After two quarters of negative growth we will be (if that happens) but "now" will never be part of a recession.
I think the problem is that it's not compliant with the definition of a recession until two negative quarters have passed. But aren't those two negative quarters part of the recession, or is that completely ignored? Or is it an after-the-fact determination applied to those two quarters? So "now" might be part of a recession, we won't know absolutely sure until October. All this is sounding like Schrödinger's cat.
All this is a bit of an aside discussion. Even with a weak quarter, Apple's remained pretty strong.