Mike Abramsky is just being cautious, his reputation is at stake and nobody knows what will happen until it happens!
But since I got no rep to uphold, I would say that, as per another poster, there is indeed a comparison to be made with the iPod:
the iPod was total novelty as this Apple well designed product that captivated the masses. What I'm saying is that the iPod has already set the stage, Apple is now a household name for a product such as the iPhone
the iPod didn't have THIS international exposure, it was quietly launched through Apple's traditional sales channels. In my (European) country it didn't achieve significant sales and did NOT set the standard as people still refer to mp3 players as, well "mp3s". On the other hand, the iPhone is being heavily promoted by the cellphone networks, already setting pre-register lists and having huge front page ads in their web sites. So the iPhone is having new sales channels which are really power houses at that. I obviously refer to companies like Vodafone in Europe, not AT&T from what I've seen - when the iPhone was launched, mind you not announced, I searched through their web site and couldn't find it anywhere, it looked like they didn't want to sell it at all!
iPod users will buy the iPhone in droves. The reason why Jobs didn't increase the iPhone capacity was 1) price and 2) they complement each other very well - I have my 30GB video iPod set in the glove compartment of my car connected to the Pioneer stereo.
iPods are targeted by a much younger (statistical) population, iPhones are lusted after by elders, youth, professionals, housewives, rich wo/men + poor wo/men, just about EVERYBODY craves the iPhone
So indeed I expect the iPhone (sales) to explode (exponentially) and way much faster than with the iPod (the stage is set, there's no land to be cleared). The international enthusiasm is unbelievable, I have read posts from India natives that just can't wait for it. Actually, (I have posted in Google Finance a few times that) we'll see a much bigger explosion from developing countries like China, India and Russia than anywhere else because for them buying an iPhone is like an American buying a car - they will buy it on credit, spend half a year's salary on it, flash it around to get chicks etc!
Last but not least, the iPhone is Apple's answer to the poor man's computer, the iPhone is the EeePC/Wind killer, it is a computing platform and soon there will be many sales coming from its computing capabilities. Maybe in September we'll already have the 4" iPhone and the 7" mini-tablet to drive people crazy and AAPL through the roof.
Mike was very conservative, there are multiple driving forces pushing the iPhone sales to never before seen numbers. If there was an exponential iPod explosion pertaining to a single yet unset market - US - just extrapolate that to a global dimension when there's little name branding recognition work to be done and it's "been there, done that" time. You won't be able to, you'll get scared with the numbers you come up with and you will back off to a silent observing position and state conservative numbers like Mike.
I did some (not serious) number crunching - and that was before Telefonica's 10+ country announcement - and I was baffled with 100 million iPhones by end 2009. And we should expect the other Japan network, China (maybe both China Mobile and the other) and Russia to be added to the list
It's not that difficult to do some serious calculations, it can be done taking the iPod model (but after all, exponential is exponential!) and shortening it time wise and extrapolating for the current 75 country subscriber number list - many countries now have more than 2 networks, look at huge Brazil who's got Telefonica's Vivo and America Movil's Claro, the 2 biggest. Maybe I do it and post it when I have the time. Or maybe somebody else will
To those who want to upgrade from the original to iPhone 3G....it is quite possible that you can sell your original iPhone for higher than than $200 for the new phone.
There are a lot of wanna-be iPhone developers out there. Getting the used iPhone (without contract) will be the cheapest way for them to get into the iPhone game.
When I cruise down the street, malls, sitting in the movie theaters, even traveling to countries where iPhone is not available, I see a lot of iPhones, the ratio to other phones is just astonishing!
This is still a conservative measure given from the historical records Apple always beat the estimate. If people look around the phones offered by other vendors, what phone can people get for $199 that would offer similar kind of aesthetic, software support, power of computing, ease of use? It wouldn't be surprise iPhone is the next iPod for Apple, and probably even better!
China Unicom to sell 3G iPhone in August - Rumor Link
"A rumor has been going through the Chinese Web that China Unicom
(CHU), one of the major mobile service providers in China, has signed
with Apple (AAPL) and will introduce Apple's 3G iPhone to the Chinese
mainland in August this year."
That's 160 million subscribers to be (eventually) added to the list. Just to put it into context, it equals or exceeds the whole Telefonica or America Movil network. Check it out at wikipedia
And China Mobile will be eventually added too, that'll be another 370 million
Come on, who volunteers to do some number crunching?!
What are the latest on 2008 sales so far and total sales?
I think they announced 4M units being sold. Even with the 2 months of no sales getting an additional 6M in just under 6 months which includes the holiday shopping season will be easy.
I think so too. Especially if Apple doesn't lower the price of iPods for awhile. For instance, if they keep iPod prices?sans the iPod Touch which seems inevitable for change come July 11th?until the fall when they refresh at or near the end of the Back To School period we may see a lot of people buying iPhones with the idea that it consolidates their iPod and phone, while offering greater functionality. Can we see 15 Million from July 11th to December 31st with sales in an upcoming 75 countries? What will the stock be as the new pricepoint and number of countries with official retailers has not been factored into the current value?
What is being forgotten is that one doesn't need a monthly plan with an iPod. It's a one time price, other than buying songs and such.
Being that the lowest price for a 3G plan is now $70 a month, that may sinply be too much for some people who otherwise might do as you say.
If the iPhone could be bought the way the older model was, without needing to buy into a two year plan, it would be diofferent, esp. with the iTouch prices remaining where they were.
But for those intending to buy a smartphone, the story is different. It's interesting to note the comparison between Mac and PC buying, and iPhone, and other smartphone buying.
The Mac is often criticised as being more expensive than PC's in general, and that is given as one big reason why prople prefer PC's.
But now, the iPhone is either priced the same, or even lower than competing smartphones with competitive feature sets.
Of course, also now, the iPhone's plan is criticized as being too expensive.
This is interesting because for decades, IDC, and other organizations have shown that ROI for Macs in business, and the same is true at home, is much higher than the ROI from PCs, despite their lower initial cost. Yet, PCs sell in vastly greater numbers, and that goes back to the very beginning, when the PC had yet to secure its place.
So, the same thing holds true here, except perhaps in reverse order. If one buys another smartphone without a contract, that phone can now cost several times what an iPhone might cost. Even within contract, the top smartphones can cost more.
But, as we see with computers, people mostly care about that up front cost, not the long term costs. This is to the iPhones advantage.
Some evidence for my position comes from looking at credit card debt. People are (mostly) knowingly paying anywhere from 18% to 25% interest on their credit card debt, yet they continue to do so.
Why? Because they would rather have what they want, now, and pay through the nose over time.
With an esoteric, and expensive, device such as a computer, historically that hasn't been as true, esp. as the Mac, and Apple in general, wasn't as well known, and wasn't thought of as a safe choice. But, as that has changed, even the purchase of this, no longer as esoteric an object, has moved over to Apple. Naturally, prices of computers a category has dropped much over the years. Even the $2,200 for a top model iMac is cheap compared to the $5,000 for a mid line PC in the mid '80's.
But the $199 to $299 for an iPhone is almost a spot decision for many people, and that will certainly enhance its sales for people looking for a new phone.
I think that we might see Apple dropping the iTouch completely in favor of the iPhone. I don't know whether this would be a good idea, but unless Apple is willing to drop the iTouch to $149, $249, and $249, I don't see how they can survive long term. If they keep the price high, then people will almost be forced into buying the iPhone instead, almost as a defensive strategy, and perhaps that is Apple's intention.
Lastly, Apple will, I think, be forced into doing something drastic to the Nano as well. Apple simply can''t have a $199 8GB Nano out there. And if they do drop the 8GB iTouch to $149, or so, wither the Nano?
Actually, I did. I sold prior to the WWDC in the high 180s. I had planned to get in after teh drop that day but forget to setup the auto-purchase when the stock hit a certain point. Luckily for me, that drop which appears to have been foolishly based on Job's health get me in many points lower than I had intended. My stupidity worked in my favour this time.
My wife lost her 8GB iPhone about a month ago. My iPhone is also an 8GB, both purchased on day 1. We have a family plan that runs $130/month incl tax and 700 min/month. We have 5000 rollover minutes available. I am not sure what the new charges will be if I give her my iPhone and buy an iPhone 3G for myself. The data rate for the new iPhone will be $30 with no SMS, the data for the old will be $20 with 200 SMS. I suppose the rate with be about $141 incl tax. I also assume that I can use some of the 200 SMS on my iPhone 3G, but that may not be the case. My two $100 rebates will pay for the new phone.
I think that we might see Apple dropping the iTouch completely in favor of the iPhone. I don't know whether this would be a good idea, but unless Apple is willing to drop the iTouch to $149, $249, and $249, I don't see how they can survive long term. If they keep the price high, then people will almost be forced into buying the iPhone instead, almost as a defensive strategy, and perhaps that is Apple's intention.
Lastly, Apple will, I think, be forced into doing something drastic to the Nano as well. Apple simply can''t have a $199 8GB Nano out there. And if they do drop the 8GB iTouch to $149, or so, wither the Nano?
I believe Apple did not increase the capacity of the iPhone because they think it is not wise for now. If you want a device to carry all your tunes around, a heavy duty device, you buy an iPod.
The iPhone, on the other hand, is a generic device, i.e. a do-it-all device. So there are limitations imposed on it.
I think Jobs envisions a future with an Apple ecosystem where we'll have an iPod, an iPhone, an Apple TV, a MacBook (Air), an iMac, etc. and they all complement wonderfully.
They have the Flash memory pricing space to accommodate lowering the iPod prices.
But I agree the iPod line up will have to be worked on.
In time there will be only one model of phoneless iPod, if any. But that is a few years from now, maybe 2 or 3...
I believe everything will be air-connected in the future, even the fridge, and the iPhone or any other handheld computing device will control everything from a distance: cook dinner @ microwave, car lights & heating on, prepare wife for lovemaking, etc.
I think that we might see Apple dropping the iTouch completely in favor of the iPhone. I don't know whether this would be a good idea, but unless Apple is willing to drop the iTouch to $149, $249, and $249, I don't see how they can survive long term. If they keep the price high, then people will almost be forced into buying the iPhone instead, almost as a defensive strategy, and perhaps that is Apple's intention.
Lastly, Apple will, I think, be forced into doing something drastic to the Nano as well. Apple simply can''t have a $199 8GB Nano out there. And if they do drop the 8GB iTouch to $149, or so, wither the Nano?
I agree that the wireless sibsidy game now complicates the iPod family's pricing structure. And yes, if the benchmark is the discounted iPhone prices out there (or even the full price version) than your predictions are something to consider. But it seems to me Apple will perhaps treat the pricing structure of iPhone as a seperate beast than rest of lineup. Too many complications (from at&t-only option to size of Nano to Touch's "mini-tablet" potential and so on) keep it from being a mass-consumer options (well, as limited as 14 million sales can be! But you know what I mean...).
I don't know, you might be right, but I hope they keep them all rolling. I will not be an iPhone customer for years (rather stick a fork in my eye than give up T-Mobile for at&t), love my Touch and can't wait for it to be the low-cost laptop alternative I've always dreamed of, use a Nano for the gym, bus, etc. when small and music-only are my needs, and even leave an "ancient" iPod w/ video in my alarm clock.
I'm more in the minority with so many of these little crack-like mp3s, but I think I do embody the potential for continued different platforms that will continue to exist.
Notice the many years it took for the iPod to take off!
Well, guess what, it's NOT happening this time!
Whatever trick they pulled then, they are pulling again now only from upstart (selling to students in Uni Campuses?)
This time it's going to be way faster for the iPhone to jump start that lovely climbing curve.
And I believe it's going to be much steeper given all the factors in place this time:
known and conquered territory
broad age population adoption
international expansion with value allies (networks)
computing platform
most profitable product eva, cheapest on sale to date (€1 in Germany)
If you account for all the lateral Mac sales coming from new iPhone adopters, it's a greenish future
Back when Apple started selling iPods, the industry was still new, and untested. Expensive memory, and few places to buy music didn't help sales much. Neither did the high prices of music.
Apple's iPod was also way ahead of all the other models, with their cryptic messages on the tiny LCDs.
The price of the iPod was also fair, within the context of what was selling. But, until Apple started the iTunes store, sales were pretty slow. Nevertheless, within that very small market, the iPod rose to about 40% of sales even before the store opened.
The chart really tracks the iTunes store, as that was what made the iPod what it is today. Once Apple opened both the iPod, and store to PC users, sales took off. Now, the market is getting near saturation, and phones are taking part i it.
The iPod has come into a fairly mature cell market where sales are vast. While the smartphone market is much smaller, it's still large. The iPhone hasn't has anything to offer people in programs as other smartphones have, which is why Jobs himself has eschewed the term "smartphone" for the iPhone. Now that it will finally become a real smartphone, that might change.
But, the iPhone has been far ahead of other phones in other areas, so it took off. If the phone market was still small, and new, it wouldn't have. It's really that simple. Nothing special about it.
With the new phones, and software, sales will jump again. But, that's within the context of a large network outside of Apple's control, which was, and is, not the case for itunes.
I believe Apple did not increase the capacity of the iPhone because they think it is not wise for now. If you want a device to carry all your tunes around, a heavy duty device, you buy an iPod.
The iPhone, on the other hand, is a generic device, i.e. a do-it-all device. So there are limitations imposed on it.
I think Jobs envisions a future with an Apple ecosystem where we'll have an iPod, an iPhone, an Apple TV, a MacBook (Air), an iMac, etc. and they all complement wonderfully.
They have the Flash memory pricing space to accommodate lowering the iPod prices.
But I agree the iPod line up will have to be worked on.
In time there will be only one model of phoneless iPod, if any. But that is a few years from now, maybe 2 or 3...
I believe everything will be air-connected in the future, even the fridge, and the iPhone or any other handheld computing device will control everything from a distance: cook dinner @ microwave, car lights & heating on, prepare wife for lovemaking, etc.
It does look as though Apple is moving to a future with iPods playing a subsidiary role on the low end, and perhaps, with a model for high storage needs people.
I don't see a future for iPods in the middle. However, at least here in the US, as Teckstud has mentioned, there is the AT&T issue.
This future can't be realized if Apple can only sell phones to 33% of the population. This will be a problem everywhere around the world for those who use phone companies that Apple has no contract with, or the phone can't work with.
So this has to be resolved.
It's not so easy. Does Apple want to come out with phones that work on other networks, and bifurcate their line?
Comments
I also assume that I can use some of the 200 SMS on my iPhone 3G, but that may not be the case. My two $100 rebates will pay for the new phone.
The SMS's are tied to a particular phone number (ie - "line of service")
You can use the $100 rebates for anything in the Apple store, except for more iPhones. This may have changed, but it was the policy early on.
ou can use the $100 rebates for anything in the Apple store, except for more iPhones.
The best use of that $100 is for some decent headphones with a built in mic.
But since I got no rep to uphold, I would say that, as per another poster, there is indeed a comparison to be made with the iPod:
- the iPod was total novelty as this Apple well designed product that captivated the masses. What I'm saying is that the iPod has already set the stage, Apple is now a household name for a product such as the iPhone
- the iPod didn't have THIS international exposure, it was quietly launched through Apple's traditional sales channels. In my (European) country it didn't achieve significant sales and did NOT set the standard as people still refer to mp3 players as, well "mp3s". On the other hand, the iPhone is being heavily promoted by the cellphone networks, already setting pre-register lists and having huge front page ads in their web sites. So the iPhone is having new sales channels which are really power houses at that. I obviously refer to companies like Vodafone in Europe, not AT&T from what I've seen - when the iPhone was launched, mind you not announced, I searched through their web site and couldn't find it anywhere, it looked like they didn't want to sell it at all!
- iPod users will buy the iPhone in droves. The reason why Jobs didn't increase the iPhone capacity was 1) price and 2) they complement each other very well - I have my 30GB video iPod set in the glove compartment of my car connected to the Pioneer stereo.
- iPods are targeted by a much younger (statistical) population, iPhones are lusted after by elders, youth, professionals, housewives, rich wo/men + poor wo/men, just about EVERYBODY craves the iPhone
So indeed I expect the iPhone (sales) to explode (exponentially) and way much faster than with the iPod (the stage is set, there's no land to be cleared). The international enthusiasm is unbelievable, I have read posts from India natives that just can't wait for it. Actually, (I have posted in Google Finance a few times that) we'll see a much bigger explosion from developing countries like China, India and Russia than anywhere else because for them buying an iPhone is like an American buying a car - they will buy it on credit, spend half a year's salary on it, flash it around to get chicks etc!Last but not least, the iPhone is Apple's answer to the poor man's computer, the iPhone is the EeePC/Wind killer, it is a computing platform and soon there will be many sales coming from its computing capabilities. Maybe in September we'll already have the 4" iPhone and the 7" mini-tablet to drive people crazy and AAPL through the roof.
Mike was very conservative, there are multiple driving forces pushing the iPhone sales to never before seen numbers. If there was an exponential iPod explosion pertaining to a single yet unset market - US - just extrapolate that to a global dimension when there's little name branding recognition work to be done and it's "been there, done that" time. You won't be able to, you'll get scared with the numbers you come up with and you will back off to a silent observing position and state conservative numbers like Mike.
I did some (not serious) number crunching - and that was before Telefonica's 10+ country announcement - and I was baffled with 100 million iPhones by end 2009. And we should expect the other Japan network, China (maybe both China Mobile and the other) and Russia to be added to the list
It's not that difficult to do some serious calculations, it can be done taking the iPod model (but after all, exponential is exponential!) and shortening it time wise and extrapolating for the current 75 country subscriber number list - many countries now have more than 2 networks, look at huge Brazil who's got Telefonica's Vivo and America Movil's Claro, the 2 biggest. Maybe I do it and post it when I have the time. Or maybe somebody else will
There are a lot of wanna-be iPhone developers out there. Getting the used iPhone (without contract) will be the cheapest way for them to get into the iPhone game.
What are the latest on 2008 sales so far and total sales?
This is still a conservative measure given from the historical records Apple always beat the estimate. If people look around the phones offered by other vendors, what phone can people get for $199 that would offer similar kind of aesthetic, software support, power of computing, ease of use? It wouldn't be surprise iPhone is the next iPod for Apple, and probably even better!
"A rumor has been going through the Chinese Web that China Unicom
(CHU), one of the major mobile service providers in China, has signed
with Apple (AAPL) and will introduce Apple's 3G iPhone to the Chinese
mainland in August this year."
That's 160 million subscribers to be (eventually) added to the list. Just to put it into context, it equals or exceeds the whole Telefonica or America Movil network. Check it out at wikipedia
And China Mobile will be eventually added too, that'll be another 370 million
Come on, who volunteers to do some number crunching?!
What are the latest on 2008 sales so far and total sales?
I think they announced 4M units being sold. Even with the 2 months of no sales getting an additional 6M in just under 6 months which includes the holiday shopping season will be easy.
I think so too. Especially if Apple doesn't lower the price of iPods for awhile. For instance, if they keep iPod prices?sans the iPod Touch which seems inevitable for change come July 11th?until the fall when they refresh at or near the end of the Back To School period we may see a lot of people buying iPhones with the idea that it consolidates their iPod and phone, while offering greater functionality. Can we see 15 Million from July 11th to December 31st with sales in an upcoming 75 countries? What will the stock be as the new pricepoint and number of countries with official retailers has not been factored into the current value?
What is being forgotten is that one doesn't need a monthly plan with an iPod. It's a one time price, other than buying songs and such.
Being that the lowest price for a 3G plan is now $70 a month, that may sinply be too much for some people who otherwise might do as you say.
If the iPhone could be bought the way the older model was, without needing to buy into a two year plan, it would be diofferent, esp. with the iTouch prices remaining where they were.
But for those intending to buy a smartphone, the story is different. It's interesting to note the comparison between Mac and PC buying, and iPhone, and other smartphone buying.
The Mac is often criticised as being more expensive than PC's in general, and that is given as one big reason why prople prefer PC's.
But now, the iPhone is either priced the same, or even lower than competing smartphones with competitive feature sets.
Of course, also now, the iPhone's plan is criticized as being too expensive.
This is interesting because for decades, IDC, and other organizations have shown that ROI for Macs in business, and the same is true at home, is much higher than the ROI from PCs, despite their lower initial cost. Yet, PCs sell in vastly greater numbers, and that goes back to the very beginning, when the PC had yet to secure its place.
So, the same thing holds true here, except perhaps in reverse order. If one buys another smartphone without a contract, that phone can now cost several times what an iPhone might cost. Even within contract, the top smartphones can cost more.
But, as we see with computers, people mostly care about that up front cost, not the long term costs. This is to the iPhones advantage.
Some evidence for my position comes from looking at credit card debt. People are (mostly) knowingly paying anywhere from 18% to 25% interest on their credit card debt, yet they continue to do so.
Why? Because they would rather have what they want, now, and pay through the nose over time.
With an esoteric, and expensive, device such as a computer, historically that hasn't been as true, esp. as the Mac, and Apple in general, wasn't as well known, and wasn't thought of as a safe choice. But, as that has changed, even the purchase of this, no longer as esoteric an object, has moved over to Apple. Naturally, prices of computers a category has dropped much over the years. Even the $2,200 for a top model iMac is cheap compared to the $5,000 for a mid line PC in the mid '80's.
But the $199 to $299 for an iPhone is almost a spot decision for many people, and that will certainly enhance its sales for people looking for a new phone.
I think that we might see Apple dropping the iTouch completely in favor of the iPhone. I don't know whether this would be a good idea, but unless Apple is willing to drop the iTouch to $149, $249, and $249, I don't see how they can survive long term. If they keep the price high, then people will almost be forced into buying the iPhone instead, almost as a defensive strategy, and perhaps that is Apple's intention.
Lastly, Apple will, I think, be forced into doing something drastic to the Nano as well. Apple simply can''t have a $199 8GB Nano out there. And if they do drop the 8GB iTouch to $149, or so, wither the Nano?
Actually, I did. I sold prior to the WWDC in the high 180s. I had planned to get in after teh drop that day but forget to setup the auto-purchase when the stock hit a certain point. Luckily for me, that drop which appears to have been foolishly based on Job's health get me in many points lower than I had intended. My stupidity worked in my favour this time.
When did you get back in, on the 13th?
You had a small window there. What did you pay?
"A rumor has been going through the Chinese Web that China Unicom
(CHU), one of the major mobile service providers in China, has signed
with Apple (AAPL) and will introduce Apple's 3G iPhone to the Chinese
mainland in August this year."
If true, AAPL will go above $250+ mark soon. The number of mobile phone subscribers in China is just unbelievable!
My wife lost her 8GB iPhone about a month ago. My iPhone is also an 8GB, both purchased on day 1. We have a family plan that runs $130/month incl tax and 700 min/month. We have 5000 rollover minutes available. I am not sure what the new charges will be if I give her my iPhone and buy an iPhone 3G for myself. The data rate for the new iPhone will be $30 with no SMS, the data for the old will be $20 with 200 SMS. I suppose the rate with be about $141 incl tax. I also assume that I can use some of the 200 SMS on my iPhone 3G, but that may not be the case. My two $100 rebates will pay for the new phone.
Why don't you give her the new one?
This is the iPod sales history. Here's the total sales graphic:
Notice the many years it took for the iPod to take off!
Well, guess what, it's NOT happening this time!
Whatever trick they pulled then, they are pulling again now only from upstart (selling to students in Uni Campuses?)
This time it's going to be way faster for the iPhone to jump start that lovely climbing curve.
And I believe it's going to be much steeper given all the factors in place this time:
- known and conquered territory
- broad age population adoption
- international expansion with value allies (networks)
- computing platform
- most profitable product eva, cheapest on sale to date (?1 in Germany)
If you account for all the lateral Mac sales coming from new iPhone adopters, it's a greenish futureI think that we might see Apple dropping the iTouch completely in favor of the iPhone. I don't know whether this would be a good idea, but unless Apple is willing to drop the iTouch to $149, $249, and $249, I don't see how they can survive long term. If they keep the price high, then people will almost be forced into buying the iPhone instead, almost as a defensive strategy, and perhaps that is Apple's intention.
Lastly, Apple will, I think, be forced into doing something drastic to the Nano as well. Apple simply can''t have a $199 8GB Nano out there. And if they do drop the 8GB iTouch to $149, or so, wither the Nano?
I believe Apple did not increase the capacity of the iPhone because they think it is not wise for now. If you want a device to carry all your tunes around, a heavy duty device, you buy an iPod.
The iPhone, on the other hand, is a generic device, i.e. a do-it-all device. So there are limitations imposed on it.
I think Jobs envisions a future with an Apple ecosystem where we'll have an iPod, an iPhone, an Apple TV, a MacBook (Air), an iMac, etc. and they all complement wonderfully.
They have the Flash memory pricing space to accommodate lowering the iPod prices.
But I agree the iPod line up will have to be worked on.
In time there will be only one model of phoneless iPod, if any. But that is a few years from now, maybe 2 or 3...
I believe everything will be air-connected in the future, even the fridge, and the iPhone or any other handheld computing device will control everything from a distance: cook dinner @ microwave, car lights & heating on, prepare wife for lovemaking, etc.
I think that we might see Apple dropping the iTouch completely in favor of the iPhone. I don't know whether this would be a good idea, but unless Apple is willing to drop the iTouch to $149, $249, and $249, I don't see how they can survive long term. If they keep the price high, then people will almost be forced into buying the iPhone instead, almost as a defensive strategy, and perhaps that is Apple's intention.
Lastly, Apple will, I think, be forced into doing something drastic to the Nano as well. Apple simply can''t have a $199 8GB Nano out there. And if they do drop the 8GB iTouch to $149, or so, wither the Nano?
I agree that the wireless sibsidy game now complicates the iPod family's pricing structure. And yes, if the benchmark is the discounted iPhone prices out there (or even the full price version) than your predictions are something to consider. But it seems to me Apple will perhaps treat the pricing structure of iPhone as a seperate beast than rest of lineup. Too many complications (from at&t-only option to size of Nano to Touch's "mini-tablet" potential and so on) keep it from being a mass-consumer options (well, as limited as 14 million sales can be! But you know what I mean...).
I don't know, you might be right, but I hope they keep them all rolling. I will not be an iPhone customer for years (rather stick a fork in my eye than give up T-Mobile for at&t), love my Touch and can't wait for it to be the low-cost laptop alternative I've always dreamed of, use a Nano for the gym, bus, etc. when small and music-only are my needs, and even leave an "ancient" iPod w/ video in my alarm clock.
I'm more in the minority with so many of these little crack-like mp3s, but I think I do embody the potential for continued different platforms that will continue to exist.
Why don't you give her the new one?
THAT was funny...
[
Notice the many years it took for the iPod to take off!
Well, guess what, it's NOT happening this time!
Whatever trick they pulled then, they are pulling again now only from upstart (selling to students in Uni Campuses?)
This time it's going to be way faster for the iPhone to jump start that lovely climbing curve.
And I believe it's going to be much steeper given all the factors in place this time:
- known and conquered territory
- broad age population adoption
- international expansion with value allies (networks)
- computing platform
- most profitable product eva, cheapest on sale to date (€1 in Germany)
If you account for all the lateral Mac sales coming from new iPhone adopters, it's a greenish futureBack when Apple started selling iPods, the industry was still new, and untested. Expensive memory, and few places to buy music didn't help sales much. Neither did the high prices of music.
Apple's iPod was also way ahead of all the other models, with their cryptic messages on the tiny LCDs.
The price of the iPod was also fair, within the context of what was selling. But, until Apple started the iTunes store, sales were pretty slow. Nevertheless, within that very small market, the iPod rose to about 40% of sales even before the store opened.
The chart really tracks the iTunes store, as that was what made the iPod what it is today. Once Apple opened both the iPod, and store to PC users, sales took off. Now, the market is getting near saturation, and phones are taking part i it.
The iPod has come into a fairly mature cell market where sales are vast. While the smartphone market is much smaller, it's still large. The iPhone hasn't has anything to offer people in programs as other smartphones have, which is why Jobs himself has eschewed the term "smartphone" for the iPhone. Now that it will finally become a real smartphone, that might change.
But, the iPhone has been far ahead of other phones in other areas, so it took off. If the phone market was still small, and new, it wouldn't have. It's really that simple. Nothing special about it.
With the new phones, and software, sales will jump again. But, that's within the context of a large network outside of Apple's control, which was, and is, not the case for itunes.
I believe Apple did not increase the capacity of the iPhone because they think it is not wise for now. If you want a device to carry all your tunes around, a heavy duty device, you buy an iPod.
The iPhone, on the other hand, is a generic device, i.e. a do-it-all device. So there are limitations imposed on it.
I think Jobs envisions a future with an Apple ecosystem where we'll have an iPod, an iPhone, an Apple TV, a MacBook (Air), an iMac, etc. and they all complement wonderfully.
They have the Flash memory pricing space to accommodate lowering the iPod prices.
But I agree the iPod line up will have to be worked on.
In time there will be only one model of phoneless iPod, if any. But that is a few years from now, maybe 2 or 3...
I believe everything will be air-connected in the future, even the fridge, and the iPhone or any other handheld computing device will control everything from a distance: cook dinner @ microwave, car lights & heating on, prepare wife for lovemaking, etc.
It does look as though Apple is moving to a future with iPods playing a subsidiary role on the low end, and perhaps, with a model for high storage needs people.
I don't see a future for iPods in the middle. However, at least here in the US, as Teckstud has mentioned, there is the AT&T issue.
This future can't be realized if Apple can only sell phones to 33% of the population. This will be a problem everywhere around the world for those who use phone companies that Apple has no contract with, or the phone can't work with.
So this has to be resolved.
It's not so easy. Does Apple want to come out with phones that work on other networks, and bifurcate their line?