I'd say the 16GB model. A typical movie isn't over 2GB in size and a decent music collection can be under 5GB. Consider the 16GB 3G model. If you go for a long drive and need maps or something to read on the way, it's necessary to have a network connection. It is a pay monthly service so you don't have to pay every month but it's handy on those occasions you absolutely need it.
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Go for 32GB, its only $100 more and you might need it one day.