Growth in netbook sales slows in anticipation of Apple's iPad

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  • Reply 41 of 98
    mazda 3smazda 3s Posts: 1,613member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by estyle View Post


    Are you 100% certain that you can't operate the iPad without a Computer.



    If you start with the iPad and nothing else (no music library you had to copy over, etc.) it does not seem like you have to have a computer.

    1) buy your music/movies/tv through the itunes app or from an ABC/CBS/Netflix app all on the iPad.

    2) buy your apps from the Appstore App on the iPad.

    3) Using your iPad Apps like iWork create/edit/save/store your documents/spreadsheets/presentations on the iPad

    4) using the Bento app manage your databasing

    5) already does email fine on its own

    6) games bought and played on the iPad

    7) charges from a plug in the wall

    8) in fact i can't think of anything that you have to have a computer for except for that initial syncing of all your old stuff, which is what you would probably do if you bought any new computer.



    so are we agreed? you don't have to have a computer for the iPad anymore than you would for a netbook or a new laptop or a new desktop.



    Assuming that you're new to the Apple fold, you STILL will need a computer to setup an iTunes account and get your credit card information setup so that you would actually be able to download stuff from iTunes on your iPad. And you will still need a computer to do any firmware updates.



    You would also need to sync your contacts, unless you use something like Google with Microsoft exchange or MobileMe.
  • Reply 42 of 98
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Undo Redo View Post


    Taller in aspect ratio, yes. But 1024 x 768 vs. 1280 x 800. I have a little trouble with the vertical resolution of my 600 pixel netbook but 800 pixels on my MacBook is no problem. My next netbook will be a little bigger.



    I'm talking about the physical height of the display. The pixel density is a factor and nice to have, but more pixels do nothing to better your experience if you still can't enough line of text at a size you like on the display. For insance, the 13.3" MB/MBP display is 7.05" tall, whist the 12.1" PowerBook display is 7.21" despite being larger. The 15" MBP is only 7.91" tall. You go to a 10" display the height drops to 6" for 16:10 and under 5" for 16:9; that's just pointless for doing real work. Then there is the way the OS is designed. I think 13" is the smallest we'll see for Mac OS X.
  • Reply 43 of 98
    dfilerdfiler Posts: 3,420member
    I'm still not buying the whole meme that netbooks and iPads have anything to do with each other.



    The netbook market has been up and down enough that pinning the recent "slower sales growth" on a yet to be released product, seems like flawed logic. Note that there was still growth. Sales haven't slowed, they've simply accelerated less quickly.



    In my opinion, it is false to say that "Apple has positioned its device as a counter to both the netbook market and dedicated e-readers". If anything, Apple has gone out of its way to clearly state that it wasn't getting into those markets and that it was instead choosing to pursue a completely different product.



    It is my prediction that when people actually start using a finger based tablet (the iPad) that they'll quickly see that these devices nothing to do with netbooks. Or at least that there is no more connection than between any two other types or forms of computing hardware.



    Everyone will finally realize that they are two different things and that they are only being compared because they're both new, not because they're similar.



    Edit: Removed comment about article's headline after realizing I had read it incorrectly
  • Reply 44 of 98
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mazda 3s View Post


    Assuming that you're new to the Apple fold, you STILL will need a computer to setup an iTunes account and get your credit card information setup so that you would actually be able to download stuff from iTunes on your iPad. And you will still need a computer to do any firmware updates.



    You would also need to sync your contacts, unless you use something like Google with Microsoft exchange or MobileMe.



    Since you can set up an iTunes account on an iPhone or iPad Touch don't you think it's likely you'll be able to do that on an iPad?
  • Reply 45 of 98
    mazda 3smazda 3s Posts: 1,613member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    Since you can set up an iTunes account on an iPhone or iPad Touch don't you think it's likely you'll be able to do that on an iPad?



    I didn't know you could do that! Cool.
  • Reply 46 of 98
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 6,122member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    Except that's it's not really.



    A netbook costs anywhere from $300 and up. A Kindle costs $260 and up. A Windows 7 laptop anywhere from $500 and up.





    A iPad costs $500 and up, it also needs another computer. Which adds a additional $500+ to it's cost.



    So essentially a $1000 to $1300 iPad isn't in the range of other $260-$1000 devices at all.



    If the iPad was standalone, then we are talking some competition, $500 Win7 laptops vs $500 iPads.





    From Apple:



    You seem to have all your ducks in a row as to why the iPad will fail. So putting any Apple hate or fanboyism aside, let's prove your theory in a strictly business manner.



    Why don't you just short-sell AAPL right now and we can compare our holdings six months from now? Otherwise, your far-seeing oracle insights don't hold anything. Just an FUD troll.
  • Reply 47 of 98
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dfiler View Post


    I'm still not buying the whole meme that netbooks and iPads have anything to do with each other.



    The netbook market has been up and down enough that pinning the recent "slower sales growth" on a yet to be released product, seems like flawed logic. Note that there was still growth. Sales haven't slowed, they've simply accelerated less quickly.



    In my opinion, it is false to say that "Apple has positioned its device as a counter to both the netbook market and dedicated e-readers". If anything, Apple has gone out of its way to clearly state that it wasn't getting into those markets and that it was instead choosing to pursue a completely different product.



    It is my prediction that when people actually start using a finger based tablet (the iPad) that they'll quickly see that these devices nothing to do with netbooks. Or at least that there is no more connection than between any two other types or forms of computing hardware.



    Everyone will finally realize that they are two different things and that they are only being compared because they're both new, not because they're similar.



    Edit: Removed comment about article's headline after realizing I had read it incorrectly



    I don't know about that.



    While you can argue that netbooks are more 'powerful' and 'capable' machines, most of the people that I know that use them surf the net, check email and watch videos on them. The stuff that the iPad might be better at. That remains to be seen.



    I really think that most people who want to actually do work on a portable machine actually buy laptops with more robust cpus and larger screens. They don't cost that much more and make for a far more productive machine.
  • Reply 48 of 98
    spotonspoton Posts: 645member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by chronster View Post


    radical flipside? No. More like closest thing to the radical flipside. They aren't NEARLY as bad as Fox News.



    They are both bad, because both have a agenda to shape minds to their political agenda by manipulating information and commentary.



    Far at TV goes, there isn't a way to aggregate general news and information from different sources like the internet (Google News) can.
  • Reply 49 of 98
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mazda 3s View Post


    I didn't know you could do that! Cool.



    Actually I wasn't sure either, I had to go look.



    In general, though, there do seem to be some interesting gray areas in the iPad's autonomy. It seems like there are just a few software changes, like wireless sync, backup and printing, that would take it almost all the way to full fledged stand alone device, but for whatever reasons Apple is holding back. I doubt it's to protect Mac sales, since Apple is pretty obviously interested in moving as many people as possible to iOS, so maybe it's just something they want to take their time with, like cut and paste, to get it just right.
  • Reply 50 of 98
    spotonspoton Posts: 645member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sflocal View Post


    You seem to have all your ducks in a row as to why the iPad will fail. So putting any Apple hate or fanboyism aside, let's prove your theory in a strictly business manner.



    I didn't say the iPad would fail.



    I'm pointing out it's really not in the same price range as those other devices due to the requirement that the iPod use another computer, thus inflating it's cost verses those other devices.



    Typically, higher cost items don't sell as much as lower cost ones.



    In a business sense then, with the various iPods from $60 to $250 claiming 36% of all computers users (Mac's and PCs) and the $200-$400 iPod Touch claiming 9%, leads one to reason the $500-$900 iPad will result in a less than 9% acceptance rate.



    Funny, a poll taken of 2000 computer users shows that only 9% will likely or very likely get a iPad within the next 6 months citing PRICE as the biggest obstacle.



    9% is certainly not a failure, not at all.



    The people most likely to get a iPad, are those who already have a computer, as their costs are only $500+. (more Mac users than PCs as well)



    For those who don't have a computer, their costs to get a iPad just shot up another $500 to $1000 or more.



    There is a this cost reasoning process that goes on when someone has to part with the cash, a kid jumping up and down for a $500 iPad drags their parents into a Apple Store only to find out that they need to spend an additional $1000 for a MacBook to use it.



    Likely the parents will settle for the MacBook and tell the kid to wait till Christmas for the iPad.
  • Reply 51 of 98
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Marvin View Post


    There are loads of people who want to know what it means to get on the internet without having to deal with the mouse and may already have a TV. The netbooks are great because they are low cost and full-featured. Some of my friends own them and they love them. I found the CPU to be slow but capable - no worse than a powerbook.



    They do think that the 11.6" models are the lowest they would go though. 10" is just too small and the majority of netbooks are too small. That's my biggest objection with them too.



    The 12" powerbook was an ideal size and netbooks seem to be gravitating towards this screen size. 11.6" HP Mini 311, Lenovo S12, Dell Mini 12.



    You can see from the image here how the 9" and 12" compare:







    The 9" looks like a kid's toy. Once the 12" variety take up most of the lineup and they use either ULV chips or dual-core Atoms, they may start to pick up again. However, they are also fighting amazingly good value laptops.



    You can get an Atom netbook for $299 or a Core i5 with Radeon 5650 for $750. If you are investing in a machine and not just throwing spare cash away, people will opt for the better value machine that will last longer.



    The middle ground between the two is perfect. $399 or $499 for 12" display, possibly with a DVD drive (that does put off some movie watchers not having one), Core 2 Duo, decent GPU like the 9400M or higher and light (under 4lbs). Once they get that combination, the netbooks will pick up.



    It makes sense that anticipation of the iPad will have slowed down the netbook sales but we'll have to see what happens over the next couple of months whether the delivered product will pull people away from netbooks. Regardless of whether or not an iPad can be used without a secondary machine, it can't be owned without one and when people who want just one machine find that out, I think they will go back to the netbooks.



    Nice analysis. The thing people around here don't get is that this is normal evolution of a computer format that began with the original Asus Eee PC at 7" with a huge bezel.



    After a few quarters the netbooks sizes improved to 9" and 10" devices with better resolution and now everyone will be moving to the 11" devices that will handle HD video playback either with Nvidia Ion or 3rd party accelerators.
  • Reply 52 of 98
    undo redoundo redo Posts: 164member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by backtomac View Post


    I don't know about that.



    While you can argue that netbooks are more 'powerful' and 'capable' machines, most of the people that I know that use them surf the net, check email and watch videos on them. The stuff that the iPad might be better at. That remains to be seen.



    I use my netbook mainly for three reasons. It's lightweight, works perfectly and is comfortable for reading web pages and email when it's on my lap. It's relatively cheap, so I needn't worry much about it when I take it somewhere and leave it in the car. In a pinch it can do everything my unavailable "better" computer can do.



    Those three things are out the window with an iPad; not that I won't eventually buy and try one. I don't believe iPad will be as comfortable to use as any laptop with a screen on a hinge.
  • Reply 53 of 98
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ricardo Dawkins View Post


    Nice analysis. The thing people around don't get is that this is normal evolution of a computer format that began with the original Asus Eee PC at 7" with a huge bezel.



    After a few quarters the netbooks sizes improved to 9" and 10" devices with better resolution and now everyone will be moving to the 11" devices that will handle HD video playback either with Nvidia Ion or 3rd party accelerators.



    Seems like what you're describing though is the evolution of "netbook" into "cheap laptop." I mean, if 11" is the improvement of 9" and 10" then I would imagine 12" would be even better, plus faster processors and more memory and higher resolution screens... oh, hello small laptop.



    Which is why I think the entire netbook vs. tablet thing is red herring. What we're really talking about is small, cheap laptops vs. tablets, at which point it becomes much clearer what the advantages/disadvantages of each are.
  • Reply 54 of 98
    undo redoundo redo Posts: 164member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    Which is why I think the entire netbook vs. tablet thing is red herring. What we're really talking about is small, cheap laptops vs. tablets, at which point it becomes much clearer what the advantages/disadvantages of each are.



    Bingo. Thank you.
  • Reply 55 of 98
    mazda 3smazda 3s Posts: 1,613member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    Actually I wasn't sure either, I had to go look.



    In general, though, there do seem to be some interesting gray areas in the iPad's autonomy. It seems like there are just a few software changes, like wireless sync, backup and printing, that would take it almost all the way to full fledged stand alone device, but for whatever reasons Apple is holding back. I doubt it's to protect Mac sales, since Apple is pretty obviously interested in moving as many people as possible to iOS, so maybe it's just something they want to take their time with, like cut and paste, to get it just right.



    Yeah, I see exactly where you are coming from. I would love to have an iPad, and I've been known to buy gadgets just for the hell of it, but I honestly can't think of how it would fit into my life being that I already have an iPhone 3GS and a MBP.
  • Reply 56 of 98
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    What we're really talking about is small, cheap laptops vs. tablets, at which point it becomes much clearer what the advantages/disadvantages of each are.



    Which are both not ideal as your only computing device, but accessories machines. The only difference is that Apple doesn't have chimeric illusions about a 10" device replacing a full-sized PC.



    I think netbooks will get less common and move into the notebook-size range, even though they are cheap and use Atom CPUs to reduce costs. I also think these netbook makers will work vigorously to make cheap tablets using Android to undercut Apple in an attempt to scrape out a minimal profit. I think they will fail when trying to beat Apple but some will succeed among their bottom-barrel brethren.
  • Reply 57 of 98
    spotonspoton Posts: 645member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by estyle View Post


    Are you 100% certain that you can't operate the iPad without a computer?



    I can only telly you what Apple says the device needs and they say it needs a computer and iTunes.



    If, or how long, or how well, it will operate without one remains to be seen.





    Regardless, since Apple states the iPads requirements that it needs a computer will affect those purchasing the device.



    Apple might play this game that "Well you can operate it without a Mac for now, but eventually you will have to get one"



    One truth about Apple:



    Apple = Upsell = Always.
  • Reply 58 of 98
    spotonspoton Posts: 645member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mazda 3s View Post


    Yeah, I see exactly where you are coming from. I would love to have an iPad, and I've been known to buy gadgets just for the hell of it, but I honestly can't think of how it would fit into my life being that I already have an iPhone 3GS and a MBP.





    What Apple might do is get a lot of media content for the iPad that avoids open computers in general because the producers demand more stringent DRM schemes and control, which the A4 processor could provide.



    This way it would appeal to people like you and me that already have a small portable device and a MacBook Pro.



    Of course I rather have the darn Apps and whatnot running on my MBP in the first place, more space.
  • Reply 59 of 98
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,443moderator
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    Which is why I think the entire netbook vs. tablet thing is red herring. What we're really talking about is small, cheap laptops vs. tablets, at which point it becomes much clearer what the advantages/disadvantages of each are.



    Except there's still too much overlap in terms of usage and cost. Some manufacturers are even converging the two so you can basically pull the screen off the cheap laptop/netbook and use it as a touch slate device rather than the whole bulky swivel convertible tablets.



    I've always said that I think the future of computing is modular. I think the whole idea of trying to keep syncing things is time consuming and wasteful as it creates redundant data. Once computers are so powerful and energy efficient that a mobile phone can replace the desktop computer for the 80% buying laptops these days, that one device is merely docked into a variety of displays/peripherals so there is no real decision to be made around how to fit your lifestyle around the device, the device conforms to whichever situation you are in. Jonathan Ive described the iPad this way but it's not a pocket device, nor is it a powerful computer so it only fits the limited purpose it defines for itself and you have to still make compromises to make it work for you.



    Given the current iPad spec, I'd have preferred a screen dock for the iPhone/iPod. I'd be sitting at home reading an eBook or iBook whatever, listening to my playlists that I'd made sure to put on my iPad and get a call to go out somewhere and note down the details using the large map. I just slide the phone out of the screen dock and keep listening to the music on the go with all my notes. I don't have to think about syncing back to the computer and then to my phone.
  • Reply 60 of 98
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Undo Redo View Post


    I use my netbook mainly for three reasons. It's lightweight, works perfectly and is comfortable for reading web pages and email when it's on my lap. It's relatively cheap, so I needn't worry much about it when I take it somewhere and leave it in the car. In a pinch it can do everything my unavailable "better" computer can do.



    Those three things are out the window with an iPad; not that I won't eventually buy and try one. I don't believe iPad will be as comfortable to use as any laptop with a screen on a hinge.



    I don't know why you dismiss the iPad if that's your usage pattern.



    Try one and see.
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