I think you need to factor in a decelerating sales curve after the initial release. My non-scientific guess is they'll sell about a million units shortly after the 3Gs are released.
I wouldn't dismiss sunday sales like DaveGee did.
But beyond that how much of a decelerating sales curve will there really be? Certainly there is the initial pent up demand that had to be filled the first few days. But after that, do the sales really decline or do these things sell themselves. Everyone I've shown ours to wants one. And I've also already found unexpected places we could use them in our company. I suspect we'll soon be ordering one with a keyboard dock to fill one of those needs.
I think you need to factor in a decelerating sales curve after the initial release. My non-scientific guess is they'll sell about a million units shortly after the 3Gs are released.
Well I did say that they need to MAINTAIN an average of 1141/per hour (where they are now @ 2083 per) so while not scientific it's just over HALF their current sales rate....
AND we have 3G sales to come and THEN International sales... so maintaing 1141 sales per hour shouldn't be that hard I'd imagine... and even if it is... 600 sales per hour would sell what 5m after the 1st year?
this has been a test of the ai emergency sarcasm system. If actual sarcasm was required you would have been temporarily redirected to gizmodo for the duration of the emergency. Once the need for sarcasm was over you would be returned to your regularly scheduled ai thread.
Yep that thar iPad just a big iPhone, iPod Touch don't got enuff (or eny reglar USB) ports, don 't got no BlooRay, don't got HDMI, don't got no fizzical keyboard.
Yep major FAIL on that thang. Apple sure blew it. Ain't no demand fer such a dumb dee-vise. Yep That thar HP Slate, n that thar COORIER, n That nice lil ol' WeePad made over thar in Ger-Many.
Yep. Apple.FAIL-FAIL-FAIL-FAIL!
Genius! You should make a country song out of this! You'll make a bundle.
I'd just like to know when the 3G is hitting stores. I have a business trip at the end of the month, and I'm planning on leaving the MacBook Pro at home and just taking the iPad.
I'm pretty up on what the limitations are, but I believe it will do everything I need it to do for the duration of the trip.
Apple'products are always best-selling. I heard ipad price in China is twice as high in United States. So cool!
The first couple of days there were people in Moscow who brought 30 ipads each with them. No surprises there, though, since they sold them...are you ready... $2,200 a piece!
I just know if I buy one without, I am going to end up stuck somewhere for a few hours/days that doesn't have wifi and I would be kicking myself if I didn't cough up the extra $130. This happens all the time with the laptop I have now. It is one of the reasons I want an iPad.
That being said, if the places I am stuck don't have AT&T coverage, the joke will be on me.
I think the big win with the iPad for me are:
battery life. When I am on a road trip, car camping, traveling, this thing will be great for surfing, game play, email, etc.
instant on. I would check email, facebook, etc more often if I didn't always have to wait for my PC to wake/boot. Even waking from sleep takes a minute or so to get to the browser. I have used friend's iPod touches. You just fire them up and they go.
apps for my daughter. It looks like there are some great apps for kids out there. I think she will have a lot of fun with it. More than she has with a mouse and keyboard on a PC.
consuming content. From netflix to streaming video from espn, abc, nbc, etc. I think I will be much more likely to watch from an iPad than from my laptop. Especially when commuting, travelling etc.
I spent a little time at an apple store last week playing with one. I will probably play with one at a store again this week. I am not in a rush and the 3g units aren't out anyway.
I think I will also end up reading e-books on it. Does anyone know if the o'reilly books will be available? It would be great to have all of my programming reference manuals on this...
I think analysts will be surprised by how many people are waiting for the 3G model.
I bought the 16 GB model just to use until my 3G model arrives with 64 GB. Everyone I know is going to buy the 3G model. I think they have it backwards. We all want it connected to the internet via mobile 3G. That's the hot item to watch.
Take a trip out to jordan creek mall in west des moines. I asked a dude while playing with one over the weekend (yes, it's the second time I've been to the store to play with it) and he said they had plenty.
Maybe they'll mail one out if you buy over the phone?
$130 is a bargain to get the 3G+GPS capability. It will be more than made up when traveling. Hotel rates can run up to $10/day. Before I get on a long flight I can download newspapers using 3G.
The real bargain is if Apple is able to get 30 Euros/month in the EU and other countries. I can use it to make Skype calls and use GPS. The rates are too hi with the iPhone. With version 4, Skype can stay resident and take calls too.
I think you need to factor in a decelerating sales curve after the initial release. My non-scientific guess is they'll sell about a million units shortly after the 3Gs are released.
You should factor in that this is not the way it normally works for a successful product. The early adopters are typically far smaller in number than mass adopters. The pattern you describe is for a failed product. If the iPad is to succeed, sales will have to accelerate, not the opposite. See: iPhone and iPod.
Over at my workplace Crywolf in San Diego, we all three WiFi models in stock. I would check at your local Apple Specialist on the off chance they have them. Not all Apple Specialists were accepted to sell them, but the few who were may have stock.
Comments
I think you need to factor in a decelerating sales curve after the initial release. My non-scientific guess is they'll sell about a million units shortly after the 3Gs are released.
I wouldn't dismiss sunday sales like DaveGee did.
But beyond that how much of a decelerating sales curve will there really be? Certainly there is the initial pent up demand that had to be filled the first few days. But after that, do the sales really decline or do these things sell themselves. Everyone I've shown ours to wants one. And I've also already found unexpected places we could use them in our company. I suspect we'll soon be ordering one with a keyboard dock to fill one of those needs.
I think you need to factor in a decelerating sales curve after the initial release. My non-scientific guess is they'll sell about a million units shortly after the 3Gs are released.
Well I did say that they need to MAINTAIN an average of 1141/per hour (where they are now @ 2083 per) so while not scientific it's just over HALF their current sales rate....
AND we have 3G sales to come and THEN International sales... so maintaing 1141 sales per hour shouldn't be that hard I'd imagine... and even if it is... 600 sales per hour would sell what 5m after the 1st year?
this has been a test of the ai emergency sarcasm system. If actual sarcasm was required you would have been temporarily redirected to gizmodo for the duration of the emergency. Once the need for sarcasm was over you would be returned to your regularly scheduled ai thread.
-- lol --
I agree and also have a 3G unit on order (64g).
Add me too (64GB).
I wonder how many of the sales are from people who originally planned to get the 3G, but couldn't control themselves.
The only thing that saved me from doing just that, is that it is not available here at all yet
Yep that thar iPad just a big iPhone, iPod Touch don't got enuff (or eny reglar USB) ports, don 't got no BlooRay, don't got HDMI, don't got no fizzical keyboard.
Yep major FAIL on that thang. Apple sure blew it. Ain't no demand fer such a dumb dee-vise. Yep That thar HP Slate, n that thar COORIER, n That nice lil ol' WeePad made over thar in Ger-Many.
Yep. Apple.FAIL-FAIL-FAIL-FAIL!
Genius! You should make a country song out of this! You'll make a bundle.
Apple'products are always best-selling. I heard ipad price in China is twice as high in United States. So cool!
But it's not Apple that's making that extra profit.
3G could be more popular. It will offer more uses, like a sweet GPS unit.
I am more interested in the GPS than the 3G.
I'm pretty up on what the limitations are, but I believe it will do everything I need it to do for the duration of the trip.
Apple'products are always best-selling. I heard ipad price in China is twice as high in United States. So cool!
The first couple of days there were people in Moscow who brought 30 ipads each with them. No surprises there, though, since they sold them...are you ready... $2,200 a piece!
That being said, if the places I am stuck don't have AT&T coverage, the joke will be on me.
I think the big win with the iPad for me are:
- battery life. When I am on a road trip, car camping, traveling, this thing will be great for surfing, game play, email, etc.
- instant on. I would check email, facebook, etc more often if I didn't always have to wait for my PC to wake/boot. Even waking from sleep takes a minute or so to get to the browser. I have used friend's iPod touches. You just fire them up and they go.
- apps for my daughter. It looks like there are some great apps for kids out there. I think she will have a lot of fun with it. More than she has with a mouse and keyboard on a PC.
- consuming content. From netflix to streaming video from espn, abc, nbc, etc. I think I will be much more likely to watch from an iPad than from my laptop. Especially when commuting, travelling etc.
I spent a little time at an apple store last week playing with one. I will probably play with one at a store again this week. I am not in a rush and the 3g units aren't out anyway.I think I will also end up reading e-books on it. Does anyone know if the o'reilly books will be available? It would be great to have all of my programming reference manuals on this...
I think analysts will be surprised by how many people are waiting for the 3G model.
I bought the 16 GB model just to use until my 3G model arrives with 64 GB. Everyone I know is going to buy the 3G model. I think they have it backwards. We all want it connected to the internet via mobile 3G. That's the hot item to watch.
Maybe they'll mail one out if you buy over the phone?
The real bargain is if Apple is able to get 30 Euros/month in the EU and other countries. I can use it to make Skype calls and use GPS. The rates are too hi with the iPhone. With version 4, Skype can stay resident and take calls too.
I think you need to factor in a decelerating sales curve after the initial release. My non-scientific guess is they'll sell about a million units shortly after the 3Gs are released.
You should factor in that this is not the way it normally works for a successful product. The early adopters are typically far smaller in number than mass adopters. The pattern you describe is for a failed product. If the iPad is to succeed, sales will have to accelerate, not the opposite. See: iPhone and iPod.
3G could be more popular. It will offer more uses, like a sweet GPS unit.
The WiFi-only version also has gps.
Never mind; misread ambiguous spec.
... the product?s gross margins are accretive to the corporate model.
How do people get paid for writing marketing gobbledegookspeak like that? Is it too much to ask for English?