At this point, a lot of app developers are probably rethinking which platform they should focus on - once android has about 150% of the iPhone OS's marketshare, I think you'll see a big shift in where the better designers use their energies... A more open system with bigger marketshare, more carriers, and much greater international penetration...
I disagree, I foresee "better" designers being smart enough to recognize that they MIGHT need to create for both platforms. And solo hobby developers may shift toward Android if they have a pre-disposition to that platform now that it is maturing healthily. But the big developers, agencies and everyone else will stick with iPhone OS as their primary platform for the sheer elegance and consistency of the whole system from UI to distribution to scalability, etc.
On the contrary, I believe you over-estimate the significance of the update process you describe.
That's the problem: When is an Android update available to the end-user? A: Rarely.
In what way am I overestimating the process? That's exactly the process one goes through when an update is made available. The screen comes up, you press "Update Now", wait 5 - 10 minutes (depending on the size of the update) and it's done. All OTA. Without the need to plug the device in to another computer.
I was sitting at Denny's (cheap 2 am food is cheap 2 am food) when I did my 2.0.1 update. It was done in the time it took for our waitress to bring our drinks. My 2.0.1 to 2.1 update popped up when I was driving home from work one day.
And "rarely" is odd word to use here. Does Apple not fall under that category too? One major update a year with a few smaller patches, if needed, sprinkled throughout.
And I'm not apologizing for the manufacturers here. Us users, if anything, are the ones most vocal about the slow pace of the updates for the phones with custom UIs on them.
As Android gains in popularity and maturity, Google will most likely slow down on pace it's updating at and settle into a schedule more like Apples. Which in turn will allow the manufacturers the time they need. I'm willing to continue giving them the benefit of the doubt here.
I'm not an iPhone zombie ... nor am I an Droid droid... but here are my thought for what they're worth...
- AT&T doesn't make for a good carrier choice for the entire US...
- Neither does Verizon...
- Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US
- iPhone is sold only to AT&T (officially)
- Jail Broken iPhones I presume will/do work on T-Mobile
One thing is all but clear... The Android is all but unchallenged on all US networks other than AT&T.. So the fact that they are outselling the iPhone is a hollow victory at best.
Is Apples choice to shun the other networks really worth all that comes with it?
- The loss of sales (obviously)
- The more people who own Android the more people will recommending Android.
Does Apple really feel so confidant that they are willing to simply GIVE the Android platform an ENORMOUS chunk of the US market? I don't have any answers to this issue but I'm simply not 'impressed' by Android market gains when Apple is simply handing it over to them.
You make some great points, and they're all true, but TenoBell's comment still holds. What you seeing as "Apple needs" is really the "customer needs" since AT&T doesn't work for everyone. You wrote, "Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US" but remember that the iPhone is being sold OUT when it launches. If they don't have enough product for months after launch to satisfy their current carriers it make no sense to add another large carrier. If Verizon does come to the iPhone I would expect it to be many months after the initial launch date for the upcoming iPhone.
I have great service with AT&T and fast speeds that Verizon can't touch but I'd be very for Verizon to get the iPhone. It gets people off my towers, I get to see how Verizon can handle the iPhone surge, and (most importantly) the stock will undoubtedly skyrocket simple from it being officially announced.
One thing to note is that T-Mobile would be the first addition because it's so easy. just add a 4th WCDMA 3G radio to the silicon. That's all that's holding back the iPhone and iPad, but since the unlocked iPad 3G didn't get it I think Apple and AT&T are in bed for another year.
The interesting thing is that almost every android based phone is buy one get one free, so yes I suppose there are a lot of them out there, 1/2 of which were actually paid for.
Apple chose to pick the worst provider in the country (in addition to no unlocked version being sold) and if they suffer market share as a result it's their own fault.
If I wasn't able to get my iPhone working on T-Mobile I would not be using an iPhone either. I'd suffer using a Nokia or Android rather than putting up with AT&T for another minute. End of story.
If i am not insane i recall that unlocked iPhone was sold in States twice for a week in Apple stores for 700$ (and it is around the price of the iPhone in all other countries)?
The interesting thing is that almost every android based phone is buy one get one free, so yes I suppose there are a lot of them out there, 1/2 of which were actually paid for.
And? If Apple did the BOGO promotion or allowed AT&T to do it, I'd bet you'd see a surge in iPhone purchases too.
At the end of the day it's still a business. If a BOGO offer gets you more money and customers, then so be it.
I'm not an iPhone zombie ... nor am I an Droid droid... but here are my thought for what they're worth...
- AT&T doesn't make for a good carrier choice for the entire US...
- Neither does Verizon...
- Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US
- iPhone is sold only to AT&T (officially)
- Jail Broken iPhones I presume will/do work on T-Mobile
One thing is all but clear... The Android is all but unchallenged on all US networks other than AT&T.. So the fact that they are outselling the iPhone is a hollow victory at best.
Is Apples choice to shun the other networks really worth all that comes with it?
- The loss of sales (obviously)
- The more people who own Android the more people will recommending Android.
Does Apple really feel so confidant that they are willing to simply GIVE the Android platform an ENORMOUS chunk of the US market? I don't have any answers to this issue but I'm simply not 'impressed' by Android market gains when Apple is simply handing it over to them.
I agree with you and not Teno on this.
More carriers means more sales and greater market share. While some may dismiss the importance of MS, I don't in this particular instance.
Apple are trying to mold the mobile internet and computing space in their favor and point it in the direction they want it to go. Their success will be largely dependent on MS. More users increases the possibility that HTML5 is successful and Flash gets marginalized on mobile devices.
More users also means they can strong arm developers like they have here recently with the 3.3.1 section of the developer agreement.
Bottom line, MS is important if you want to shape the market and Apple does. I'm not suggesting that they give phones away to do so but I bet they look at the numbers. Certainly developers, both Web and app, do.
Simple: an auto-update process is 100% irrelevant if there's no update to be had because the handset manufacturer hasn't (and might never) adapt the new code from Google to run on your specific handset. Result: Android market fragmentation -- It's real, it's now, and it's pervasive.
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And "rarely" is odd word to use here. Does Apple not fall under that category too? One major update a year with a few smaller patches, if needed, sprinkled throughout.
So far, when Apple has provided an update (major updates once per year, minor updates including security patches every few months), those updates have always been immediately available for all models and generations of iPhone and iPod touch. This is distinctly different from Android.
The interesting thing is that almost every android based phone is buy one get one free, so yes I suppose there are a lot of them out there, 1/2 of which were actually paid for.
The other half are paid for in part by Verizon's whopping $350 early termination fee for each member of the pair ($700 total commitment).
- AT&T doesn't make for a good carrier choice for the entire US...
- Neither does Verizon...
- Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US
- iPhone is sold only to AT&T (officially)
- Jail Broken iPhones I presume will/do work on T-Mobile
I don't disagree, but this is more benefit to the consumer than it is to Apple.
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One thing is all but clear... The Android is all but unchallenged on all US networks other than AT&T.. So the fact that they are outselling the iPhone is a hollow victory at best.
Blackberry still far outsell Android.
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Is Apples choice to shun the other networks really worth all that comes with it?
- The loss of sales (obviously)
- The more people who own Android the more people will recommending Android.
During the first quarter of iPhone launch Apple cannot keep up on demand. The iPhone just had 131% YOY growth during a quarter when nothing new happened. So sales are not that big of a problem.
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Does Apple really feel so confidant that they are willing to simply GIVE the Android platform an ENORMOUS chunk of the US market? I don't have any answers to this issue but I'm simply not 'impressed' by Android market gains when Apple is simply handing it over to them.
You assume that Apple has to feel threatened that their are actually other mobile platforms that are growing and succeeding. That everyone else has to loose for Apple to win.
So, in the name of disclosure, I recently bought an HTC Incredible because I'm sick of waiting for the iPhone to come to Verizon. I also make my living working at an Apple authorized dealer, so don't jump down my throat. I work with iPhones and iPods and iPads almost every day, and I own a touch. But it so happens that Android is a pretty darn good OS, and there's no point in denying it.
So first of all, the reason they aren't counting ipad or ipods, and the reason they ARE counting dozens of android models, is because this survey is about smartphone OS use. iPod and iPad aren't smartphones. And complaining about the fact that there are more android models than iPhones is like complaining that the Yankees always win because they poach all the best players. Sure, it's the truth, and sure it sucks if you're rooting for the other team, but It's not like Google is cheating or something. They made the business choice to give their OS away for free to handset manufacturers, and that business choice is paying off. That alone doesn't make their market performance "misleading".
Of course the new iPhone next month is going to give Apple a spike in sales, but unless they're going to start offering iPhones on other carriers, I don't think having a better phone is going to increase their market SHARE very much. I hear it over and over and over and over from my customers. "I really want to get rid of my blackberry and switch to iPhone, but AT&T is so horrible. Do you know when it's coming out on Verizon?" And I always have to tell them, "don't hold your breath." At this point, everyone who was waiting for their contract with another carrier to end to switch to an iPhone has had their chance to do so. And the iPhone is already the best smartphone on AT&T. So really, I think at this point most of the holdouts have either switched to iPhones on AT&T, or decided to buy someone else's smartphone.
As for "support"... Sorry, but we need to acknowledge that there are iPhone 3G users out there who bought their iPhones less than a year ago who are getting left out of most of the new features of iPhone OS 4. Apple has always been about pushing the envelope, and they've never been hesitant to cut support for old hardware in order to move forward. Buying an iPhone is no more a guarantee of forward compatibility than any other smartphone at this point. Apple never makes promises like that. You're rolling the dice no matter what you buy.
I was really unimpressed with the motorola droid when that came out. Found it really sluggish in things like scrolling and zooming. The HTC Incredible is a big improvement. While the OS is still not as slick as the iPhone's, it's really an excellent smartphone. I was especially sold because of Google Voice, which is something of an android "killer app." Ironically, this is an app that Apple rejected from the app store, much to their detriment.
For me as a power user, Android is great. Whoever was saying it was unstable, this isn't really true at all. When I bought this Incredible, I was expecting to keep using my iPod touch quite a bit. But I've barely touched my touch. In general, i've been pleasantly surprised at the quality of the apps on the Android Market. My experience is that Android apps tend to be free more often AND have less ads than iPhone counterparts, and there are plenty of good choices for all manner of apps. Not only that, but i've got multitasking now, skype now, tethering to my mac without jail breaking it or paying anything extra, a vastly superior network, turn-by-turn navigation for no extra charge, system-wide voice commands, and Google Voice, which transcribes my voicemail for me and lets me bypass the charges for talk-time and texts. I've really been pleasantly surprised by the quality of Android apps, the stability, and the feature-richness. If somebody offered me a Verizon iPhone 3Gs right now in trade for my incredible, I don't think I'd want it.
That said, for my mom, and most of my customers, I'd still recommend iPhones. The learning curve is easier. And if the next iphone is available on a network other than AT&T, then I may live to regret my HTC Incredible purchase. But I'm liking it more and more, the longer I use it.
Simple: an auto-update process is 100% irrelevant if there's no update to be had because the handset manufacturer hasn't (and might never) adapt the new code from Google to run on your specific handset. Result: Android market fragmentation.
So far, when Apple has provided an update (major updates once per year, minor updates including security patches every few months), those updates have always been immediately available for all models of iPhone and iPod touch. This is distinctly different from Android.
It's not 100% irrelevant because there are phones that have been upgraded in the past and are to be upgraded in the future. Your argument would hold true if no handsets are being upgraded at all, but that's not the case, like it or not. The Droid line are the prime examples of the update process working.
Again, I am not in disagreement with you over the slowness of the upgrades from the manufacturers. Like I said, once Android matures more and Google slows down the development speed, the manufacturers have the time to do their upgrades for their respective devices.
All I wanted to point out was that j-something-or-other's post about the update process itself was misinformed.
More carriers means more sales and greater market share. While some may dismiss the importance of MS, I don't in this particular instance.
Apple are trying to mold the mobile internet and computing space in their favor and point it in the direction they want it to go. Their success will be largely dependent on MS. More users increases the possibility that HTML5 is successful and Flash gets marginalized on mobile devices.
Market share has its place. But Apple is guiding the mobile internet by providing a superior user experience. Webkit did not dominate the web when it was adopted by Nokia, Google, and Palm. They adopted it because it is a superior rendering engine.
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More users also means they can strong arm developers like they have here recently with the 3.3.1 section of the developer agreement.
If they are really intent on strong arming developers. The reason iPhone app development has been so successful is because of Apple's guiding hand over it, even while developers complain about Apple's rules. They don't want to understand that one goes with the other.
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Bottom line, MS is important if you want to shape the market and Apple does. I'm not suggesting that they give phones away to do so but I bet they look at the numbers. Certainly developers, both Web and app, do.
The iPhone has been shaping the market from the day it was announced at MW '07. Before it went on sale, before it had any market share.
At this point, a lot of app developers are probably rethinking which platform they should focus on - once android has about 150% of the iPhone OS's marketshare, I think you'll see a big shift in where the better designers use their energies... A more open system with bigger marketshare, more carriers, and much greater international penetration...
That would be incredibly foolish.
Even if Adobe manages to meet its targets and even if Flash 10.1 is as good as they're hoping, it requires an 800 MHz A8 processor - so only a tiny percentage of phones will run it. Let's be generous and say that 10% of smart phones will be 800 MHz A8 or higher and will be running a new enough version of Android to handle Flash by year end. (I'm feeling generous-the number will probably be far less than that).
Yet if you develop in Flash, your app can be seen on 10% of all the phones (or probably 5% of all mobile devices). If you develop in html 5, your app can be seen on all of those Android phones PLUS the 90% of phones which DON'T run Flash.
having the most sold.. all those models at very little profit versus the limited number of variations there are in Apples phone line-up are breathtaking. The bottom line profit or ROI on each phone versus multiple venders with no economy of scale and 2 for 1 deals beating the iphone in sales is .But . well can i say unequivocally irrelevant? The iphone has economy of scale..
Apple does very well with their strategy.
But the goal is to maximize total profits, and that can be accomplished via any number of other strategies too.
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Originally Posted by maxmann
so, why all the fuss about volume?
]
It is necessary for the ecosystem to thrive. It is important if one desires software and accessories.
Surveys are not a good source of sales figures. This whole thing is based on those "How many devices based on Android did you buy this year?" kind of questions. People lie on those things. A lot.
It's nice to see that someone is actually paying attention here. I'm amazed at just how quickly so many people here mistook the results of a survey of a 150,000 sample for actual sales. People can say anything in a survey and you don't even know the demographic surveyed. I've yet to see any actual sales data even remotely compare to these survey results. Actual sales for Q4 2009 have put total Android based sales at 1/3 the level of iPhone sales and that of course doesn't include the iPod Touch much less iPad units.
I don't entirely agree with this. There are Android phones that will never get an OS upgrade and others that may get an OS upgrade, depending on when the phone carrier releases it. There really is no clear idea of the upgrade path of all Android phones in general.
The iPhone 3G will absolutely get the OS upgrade it just won't be able to take advantage of all of the new features of that upgrade.
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Originally Posted by atomicpolywog
As for "support"... Sorry, but we need to acknowledge that there are iPhone 3G users out there who bought their iPhones less than a year ago who are getting left out of most of the new features of iPhone OS 4. Apple has always been about pushing the envelope, and they've never been hesitant to cut support for old hardware in order to move forward. Buying an iPhone is no more a guarantee of forward compatibility than any other smartphone at this point. Apple never makes promises like that. You're rolling the dice no matter what you buy.
I disagree, I foresee "better" designers being smart enough to recognize that they MIGHT need to create for both platforms. And solo hobby developers may shift toward Android if they have a pre-disposition to that platform now that it is maturing healthily. But the big developers, agencies and everyone else will stick with iPhone OS as their primary platform for the sheer elegance and consistency of the whole system from UI to distribution to scalability, etc.
I think the big developers will go for where the money and customers are. Same as already happens with the game industry, and in general on computers. If it wasn't for Apple itself, there would be very little quality software for OSX compared to Windows, and I think that trend will continue if Android ends up dominating the market share in a similar way to what Windows has.
Add to that being able to design a program without "big brother" apple saying yes or no, and without any surprises about what's allowed or isn't allowed, and I think Android will become the focus of most developers.
It's nice to see that someone is actually paying attention here. I'm amazed at just how quickly so many people here mistook the results of a survey of a 150,000 sample for actual sales. People can say anything in a survey and you don't even know the demographic surveyed. I've yet to see any actual sales data even remotely compare to these survey results. Actual sales for Q4 2009 have put total Android based sales at 1/3 the level of iPhone sales and that of course doesn't include the iPod Touch much less iPad units.
People can lie on a survey, but who says they're not lying about how many iPhones they purchased? This cuts both ways. Also, ipods and ipads aren't smartphones, so of course they arent included.
Comments
At this point, a lot of app developers are probably rethinking which platform they should focus on - once android has about 150% of the iPhone OS's marketshare, I think you'll see a big shift in where the better designers use their energies... A more open system with bigger marketshare, more carriers, and much greater international penetration...
I disagree, I foresee "better" designers being smart enough to recognize that they MIGHT need to create for both platforms. And solo hobby developers may shift toward Android if they have a pre-disposition to that platform now that it is maturing healthily. But the big developers, agencies and everyone else will stick with iPhone OS as their primary platform for the sheer elegance and consistency of the whole system from UI to distribution to scalability, etc.
On the contrary, I believe you over-estimate the significance of the update process you describe.
That's the problem: When is an Android update available to the end-user? A: Rarely.
In what way am I overestimating the process? That's exactly the process one goes through when an update is made available. The screen comes up, you press "Update Now", wait 5 - 10 minutes (depending on the size of the update) and it's done. All OTA. Without the need to plug the device in to another computer.
I was sitting at Denny's (cheap 2 am food is cheap 2 am food) when I did my 2.0.1 update. It was done in the time it took for our waitress to bring our drinks. My 2.0.1 to 2.1 update popped up when I was driving home from work one day.
And "rarely" is odd word to use here. Does Apple not fall under that category too? One major update a year with a few smaller patches, if needed, sprinkled throughout.
And I'm not apologizing for the manufacturers here. Us users, if anything, are the ones most vocal about the slow pace of the updates for the phones with custom UIs on them.
As Android gains in popularity and maturity, Google will most likely slow down on pace it's updating at and settle into a schedule more like Apples. Which in turn will allow the manufacturers the time they need. I'm willing to continue giving them the benefit of the doubt here.
I'm not sure I can agree...
I'm not an iPhone zombie ... nor am I an Droid droid... but here are my thought for what they're worth...
- AT&T doesn't make for a good carrier choice for the entire US...
- Neither does Verizon...
- Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US
- iPhone is sold only to AT&T (officially)
- Jail Broken iPhones I presume will/do work on T-Mobile
One thing is all but clear... The Android is all but unchallenged on all US networks other than AT&T.. So the fact that they are outselling the iPhone is a hollow victory at best.
Is Apples choice to shun the other networks really worth all that comes with it?
- The loss of sales (obviously)
- The more people who own Android the more people will recommending Android.
Does Apple really feel so confidant that they are willing to simply GIVE the Android platform an ENORMOUS chunk of the US market? I don't have any answers to this issue but I'm simply not 'impressed' by Android market gains when Apple is simply handing it over to them.
You make some great points, and they're all true, but TenoBell's comment still holds. What you seeing as "Apple needs" is really the "customer needs" since AT&T doesn't work for everyone. You wrote, "Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US" but remember that the iPhone is being sold OUT when it launches. If they don't have enough product for months after launch to satisfy their current carriers it make no sense to add another large carrier. If Verizon does come to the iPhone I would expect it to be many months after the initial launch date for the upcoming iPhone.
I have great service with AT&T and fast speeds that Verizon can't touch but I'd be very for Verizon to get the iPhone. It gets people off my towers, I get to see how Verizon can handle the iPhone surge, and (most importantly) the stock will undoubtedly skyrocket simple from it being officially announced.
One thing to note is that T-Mobile would be the first addition because it's so easy. just add a 4th WCDMA 3G radio to the silicon. That's all that's holding back the iPhone and iPad, but since the unlocked iPad 3G didn't get it I think Apple and AT&T are in bed for another year.
This is the case for exactly one reason.
AT&T.
Apple chose to pick the worst provider in the country (in addition to no unlocked version being sold) and if they suffer market share as a result it's their own fault.
If I wasn't able to get my iPhone working on T-Mobile I would not be using an iPhone either. I'd suffer using a Nokia or Android rather than putting up with AT&T for another minute. End of story.
If i am not insane i recall that unlocked iPhone was sold in States twice for a week in Apple stores for 700$ (and it is around the price of the iPhone in all other countries)?
The interesting thing is that almost every android based phone is buy one get one free, so yes I suppose there are a lot of them out there, 1/2 of which were actually paid for.
And? If Apple did the BOGO promotion or allowed AT&T to do it, I'd bet you'd see a surge in iPhone purchases too.
At the end of the day it's still a business. If a BOGO offer gets you more money and customers, then so be it.
I'm not sure I can agree...
I'm not an iPhone zombie ... nor am I an Droid droid... but here are my thought for what they're worth...
- AT&T doesn't make for a good carrier choice for the entire US...
- Neither does Verizon...
- Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US
- iPhone is sold only to AT&T (officially)
- Jail Broken iPhones I presume will/do work on T-Mobile
One thing is all but clear... The Android is all but unchallenged on all US networks other than AT&T.. So the fact that they are outselling the iPhone is a hollow victory at best.
Is Apples choice to shun the other networks really worth all that comes with it?
- The loss of sales (obviously)
- The more people who own Android the more people will recommending Android.
Does Apple really feel so confidant that they are willing to simply GIVE the Android platform an ENORMOUS chunk of the US market? I don't have any answers to this issue but I'm simply not 'impressed' by Android market gains when Apple is simply handing it over to them.
I agree with you and not Teno on this.
More carriers means more sales and greater market share. While some may dismiss the importance of MS, I don't in this particular instance.
Apple are trying to mold the mobile internet and computing space in their favor and point it in the direction they want it to go. Their success will be largely dependent on MS. More users increases the possibility that HTML5 is successful and Flash gets marginalized on mobile devices.
More users also means they can strong arm developers like they have here recently with the 3.3.1 section of the developer agreement.
Bottom line, MS is important if you want to shape the market and Apple does. I'm not suggesting that they give phones away to do so but I bet they look at the numbers. Certainly developers, both Web and app, do.
In what way am I overestimating the process?
Simple: an auto-update process is 100% irrelevant if there's no update to be had because the handset manufacturer hasn't (and might never) adapt the new code from Google to run on your specific handset. Result: Android market fragmentation -- It's real, it's now, and it's pervasive.
And "rarely" is odd word to use here. Does Apple not fall under that category too? One major update a year with a few smaller patches, if needed, sprinkled throughout.
So far, when Apple has provided an update (major updates once per year, minor updates including security patches every few months), those updates have always been immediately available for all models and generations of iPhone and iPod touch. This is distinctly different from Android.
The interesting thing is that almost every android based phone is buy one get one free, so yes I suppose there are a lot of them out there, 1/2 of which were actually paid for.
The other half are paid for in part by Verizon's whopping $350 early termination fee for each member of the pair ($700 total commitment).
So android is gonna become the dell of phones. Doesn't bother me a long as apple continues to innovate.
Ummmm...Android is an operating system. Dell is a hardware manufacturer.
Dell is becoming a provider of the Android OS in 4 out of 5 of its new cellphones:
- AT&T doesn't make for a good carrier choice for the entire US...
- Neither does Verizon...
- Android is being sold via every (or just about) carrier in the US
- iPhone is sold only to AT&T (officially)
- Jail Broken iPhones I presume will/do work on T-Mobile
I don't disagree, but this is more benefit to the consumer than it is to Apple.
One thing is all but clear... The Android is all but unchallenged on all US networks other than AT&T.. So the fact that they are outselling the iPhone is a hollow victory at best.
Blackberry still far outsell Android.
Is Apples choice to shun the other networks really worth all that comes with it?
- The loss of sales (obviously)
- The more people who own Android the more people will recommending Android.
During the first quarter of iPhone launch Apple cannot keep up on demand. The iPhone just had 131% YOY growth during a quarter when nothing new happened. So sales are not that big of a problem.
Does Apple really feel so confidant that they are willing to simply GIVE the Android platform an ENORMOUS chunk of the US market? I don't have any answers to this issue but I'm simply not 'impressed' by Android market gains when Apple is simply handing it over to them.
You assume that Apple has to feel threatened that their are actually other mobile platforms that are growing and succeeding. That everyone else has to loose for Apple to win.
So first of all, the reason they aren't counting ipad or ipods, and the reason they ARE counting dozens of android models, is because this survey is about smartphone OS use. iPod and iPad aren't smartphones. And complaining about the fact that there are more android models than iPhones is like complaining that the Yankees always win because they poach all the best players. Sure, it's the truth, and sure it sucks if you're rooting for the other team, but It's not like Google is cheating or something. They made the business choice to give their OS away for free to handset manufacturers, and that business choice is paying off. That alone doesn't make their market performance "misleading".
Of course the new iPhone next month is going to give Apple a spike in sales, but unless they're going to start offering iPhones on other carriers, I don't think having a better phone is going to increase their market SHARE very much. I hear it over and over and over and over from my customers. "I really want to get rid of my blackberry and switch to iPhone, but AT&T is so horrible. Do you know when it's coming out on Verizon?" And I always have to tell them, "don't hold your breath." At this point, everyone who was waiting for their contract with another carrier to end to switch to an iPhone has had their chance to do so. And the iPhone is already the best smartphone on AT&T. So really, I think at this point most of the holdouts have either switched to iPhones on AT&T, or decided to buy someone else's smartphone.
As for "support"... Sorry, but we need to acknowledge that there are iPhone 3G users out there who bought their iPhones less than a year ago who are getting left out of most of the new features of iPhone OS 4. Apple has always been about pushing the envelope, and they've never been hesitant to cut support for old hardware in order to move forward. Buying an iPhone is no more a guarantee of forward compatibility than any other smartphone at this point. Apple never makes promises like that. You're rolling the dice no matter what you buy.
I was really unimpressed with the motorola droid when that came out. Found it really sluggish in things like scrolling and zooming. The HTC Incredible is a big improvement. While the OS is still not as slick as the iPhone's, it's really an excellent smartphone. I was especially sold because of Google Voice, which is something of an android "killer app." Ironically, this is an app that Apple rejected from the app store, much to their detriment.
For me as a power user, Android is great. Whoever was saying it was unstable, this isn't really true at all. When I bought this Incredible, I was expecting to keep using my iPod touch quite a bit. But I've barely touched my touch. In general, i've been pleasantly surprised at the quality of the apps on the Android Market. My experience is that Android apps tend to be free more often AND have less ads than iPhone counterparts, and there are plenty of good choices for all manner of apps. Not only that, but i've got multitasking now, skype now, tethering to my mac without jail breaking it or paying anything extra, a vastly superior network, turn-by-turn navigation for no extra charge, system-wide voice commands, and Google Voice, which transcribes my voicemail for me and lets me bypass the charges for talk-time and texts. I've really been pleasantly surprised by the quality of Android apps, the stability, and the feature-richness. If somebody offered me a Verizon iPhone 3Gs right now in trade for my incredible, I don't think I'd want it.
That said, for my mom, and most of my customers, I'd still recommend iPhones. The learning curve is easier. And if the next iphone is available on a network other than AT&T, then I may live to regret my HTC Incredible purchase. But I'm liking it more and more, the longer I use it.
Simple: an auto-update process is 100% irrelevant if there's no update to be had because the handset manufacturer hasn't (and might never) adapt the new code from Google to run on your specific handset. Result: Android market fragmentation.
So far, when Apple has provided an update (major updates once per year, minor updates including security patches every few months), those updates have always been immediately available for all models of iPhone and iPod touch. This is distinctly different from Android.
It's not 100% irrelevant because there are phones that have been upgraded in the past and are to be upgraded in the future. Your argument would hold true if no handsets are being upgraded at all, but that's not the case, like it or not. The Droid line are the prime examples of the update process working.
Again, I am not in disagreement with you over the slowness of the upgrades from the manufacturers. Like I said, once Android matures more and Google slows down the development speed, the manufacturers have the time to do their upgrades for their respective devices.
All I wanted to point out was that j-something-or-other's post about the update process itself was misinformed.
More carriers means more sales and greater market share. While some may dismiss the importance of MS, I don't in this particular instance.
Apple are trying to mold the mobile internet and computing space in their favor and point it in the direction they want it to go. Their success will be largely dependent on MS. More users increases the possibility that HTML5 is successful and Flash gets marginalized on mobile devices.
Market share has its place. But Apple is guiding the mobile internet by providing a superior user experience. Webkit did not dominate the web when it was adopted by Nokia, Google, and Palm. They adopted it because it is a superior rendering engine.
More users also means they can strong arm developers like they have here recently with the 3.3.1 section of the developer agreement.
If they are really intent on strong arming developers. The reason iPhone app development has been so successful is because of Apple's guiding hand over it, even while developers complain about Apple's rules. They don't want to understand that one goes with the other.
Bottom line, MS is important if you want to shape the market and Apple does. I'm not suggesting that they give phones away to do so but I bet they look at the numbers. Certainly developers, both Web and app, do.
The iPhone has been shaping the market from the day it was announced at MW '07. Before it went on sale, before it had any market share.
At this point, a lot of app developers are probably rethinking which platform they should focus on - once android has about 150% of the iPhone OS's marketshare, I think you'll see a big shift in where the better designers use their energies... A more open system with bigger marketshare, more carriers, and much greater international penetration...
That would be incredibly foolish.
Even if Adobe manages to meet its targets and even if Flash 10.1 is as good as they're hoping, it requires an 800 MHz A8 processor - so only a tiny percentage of phones will run it. Let's be generous and say that 10% of smart phones will be 800 MHz A8 or higher and will be running a new enough version of Android to handle Flash by year end. (I'm feeling generous-the number will probably be far less than that).
Yet if you develop in Flash, your app can be seen on 10% of all the phones (or probably 5% of all mobile devices). If you develop in html 5, your app can be seen on all of those Android phones PLUS the 90% of phones which DON'T run Flash.
Which choice makes more sense?
having the most sold.. all those models at very little profit versus the limited number of variations there are in Apples phone line-up are breathtaking. The bottom line profit or ROI on each phone versus multiple venders with no economy of scale and 2 for 1 deals beating the iphone in sales is .But . well can i say unequivocally irrelevant? The iphone has economy of scale..
Apple does very well with their strategy.
But the goal is to maximize total profits, and that can be accomplished via any number of other strategies too.
so, why all the fuss about volume?
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It is necessary for the ecosystem to thrive. It is important if one desires software and accessories.
oh i give up..
D
Hang in there. Theer is always hope.
This part is important not to forget though.
Surveys are not a good source of sales figures. This whole thing is based on those "How many devices based on Android did you buy this year?" kind of questions. People lie on those things. A lot.
It's nice to see that someone is actually paying attention here. I'm amazed at just how quickly so many people here mistook the results of a survey of a 150,000 sample for actual sales. People can say anything in a survey and you don't even know the demographic surveyed. I've yet to see any actual sales data even remotely compare to these survey results. Actual sales for Q4 2009 have put total Android based sales at 1/3 the level of iPhone sales and that of course doesn't include the iPod Touch much less iPad units.
The iPhone 3G will absolutely get the OS upgrade it just won't be able to take advantage of all of the new features of that upgrade.
As for "support"... Sorry, but we need to acknowledge that there are iPhone 3G users out there who bought their iPhones less than a year ago who are getting left out of most of the new features of iPhone OS 4. Apple has always been about pushing the envelope, and they've never been hesitant to cut support for old hardware in order to move forward. Buying an iPhone is no more a guarantee of forward compatibility than any other smartphone at this point. Apple never makes promises like that. You're rolling the dice no matter what you buy.
I disagree, I foresee "better" designers being smart enough to recognize that they MIGHT need to create for both platforms. And solo hobby developers may shift toward Android if they have a pre-disposition to that platform now that it is maturing healthily. But the big developers, agencies and everyone else will stick with iPhone OS as their primary platform for the sheer elegance and consistency of the whole system from UI to distribution to scalability, etc.
I think the big developers will go for where the money and customers are. Same as already happens with the game industry, and in general on computers. If it wasn't for Apple itself, there would be very little quality software for OSX compared to Windows, and I think that trend will continue if Android ends up dominating the market share in a similar way to what Windows has.
Add to that being able to design a program without "big brother" apple saying yes or no, and without any surprises about what's allowed or isn't allowed, and I think Android will become the focus of most developers.
It's nice to see that someone is actually paying attention here. I'm amazed at just how quickly so many people here mistook the results of a survey of a 150,000 sample for actual sales. People can say anything in a survey and you don't even know the demographic surveyed. I've yet to see any actual sales data even remotely compare to these survey results. Actual sales for Q4 2009 have put total Android based sales at 1/3 the level of iPhone sales and that of course doesn't include the iPod Touch much less iPad units.
People can lie on a survey, but who says they're not lying about how many iPhones they purchased? This cuts both ways. Also, ipods and ipads aren't smartphones, so of course they arent included.