I don't think Apple will have any problems shifting these and reaching their targets. This is a major upgrade unlike the 3GS and that has performed outstandingly well.
The order bank pretty much shows that Apple know they have a winner. The feedback i'm getting from both current iPhone users and wannabes here in the UK is very positive. I also think they will have learned a lot from the iPad fiasco, they clearly underestimated that, which is understandable with a new product in a new category.
Just because after four years, they've managed to get the supply sorted out in the US, doesn't mean there won't be shortages and delays almost everywhere else as usual.
The international view of Apple's product roll-outs is decidedly different than the view from the USA.
Please read the post I was replying to first. Even with iPhone shortages in previous years it wasn't hard to get an iPhone. Right now there is at least 2 weeks waiting period if you want to get a 3G iPad.
We all know supplies are limited and this is why Apple will release the iPhone in stages and not all countries at once. Using previous sale data Apple could help minimize shortages by sending more units to areas with higher demand.
Should be delivered on the 24th. Last year I pre-ordered my 3GS and it was delivered at 9am on the release date! Much better than standing in line.
Thanks for the info. Last year my wife took the kids and stood in line a long time. I think I'll just order and have it delivered this year. Just don't want to be waiting over the weekend if possible. But, in the grand scheme of life that wouldn't be that big of a deal.
I always wondered why that would be the case though. Assuming Android is crappy like everyone else says about iOS, then iOS will eventually dominate, even if it is late to the multi-carrier party.
Android's problem is that it has a natural ceiling.
A certain segment of 'roll your own' techies will find it more to their liking, but ultimately, Google doesn't have a clue as to how to support a consumer product. They have no direct support infrastructure, leaving them at the mercy of their manufacturers. That means 1) second rate support, and 2) balkanization of the market. 'Android' will not be able to get a cohesive name as a brand.
I feel sorry for people with geek friends who insist that they get the 'superior' Android flavor of the month, and then leave them high and dry when it comes to support.
Apple has 30 years of direct end user support experience as well as the discipline it takes to focus on what the general customer (not the developer or fringe case) wants.
I predict they will sell out the first day no matter how many they make. You heard it here first. I further predict they will start pushing back pre-orders after three days. In fact, don't even bother trying to get one. If I can frighten off enough of you, it should increase my chances of getting in on the first round.
It's going to be tough to get more and more new users with only AT&T. There will be lots of upgraders but the longer Apple waits to add networks the more of a foothold Android will get.
So what if Android gets a foothold. Windows machines outnumber Apple machines when it comes to desktop computing, yet Apple manages to sell lots of hardware and make lots of money.
It is not that I think Apple ignores market share but it certainly isn't their primary focus. Nor should it be.
That being said, I believe the reason why AT&T expanded the eligibility requirements for the new phone is because they know they won't be the only iPhone carrier much longer and they want to get as many people as possible tied up with new 2 year contracts.
Please read the post I was replying to first. Even with iPhone shortages in previous years it wasn't hard to get an iPhone. Right now there is at least 2 weeks waiting period if you want to get a 3G iPad.
We all know supplies are limited and this is why Apple will release the iPhone in stages and not all countries at once. Using previous sale data Apple could help minimize shortages by sending more units to areas with higher demand.
Well, I don't think you are reading me either. What I'm saying is that it *was* hard to get an iPhone in previous years, outside of the USA.
Even with the iPhone 4, if it arrives exactly on time and there are no shortages, it will still be several months after it's release before it arrives in my location. When it does, it will be hard to get, just like the last three times.
Well here in Finland some people had to wait as long as two months (or maybe even more) to get their iPhones last year, if I remember correctly. It certainly wasn't easy to get an iPhone back then, stores were out of stock for months and got only small batches of devices at once.
I'm not exactly aware of the situation in other countries, but this is how it was here.
It's going to be tough to get more and more new users with only AT&T. There will be lots of upgraders but the longer Apple waits to add networks the more of a foothold Android will get.
True, but you are forgetting about the rest of the world which is the biggest part of the market.
I think it's interesting that with the first model they were hoping (with fingers crossed!) to sell 10 million in a year, and here we are four years later looking at 10 million a quarter.
I used to ascribe to the "Apple will only be a fraction of the Android dominated market in the end" view, but more and more lately I think this is just an expectation based on the history of Windows/Mac and has no real facts to support it. I don't see any reason why Apple couldn't totally dominate the mobile market and eventually take a 70, 80, or even 90% share (worldwide that is).
Prof., wasn't there an AI article sometime back that cited world share of iPhone sales was at like 46% of total iPhone sales. So not only is the "world" catching up in sales (as compared to US sales) but the market remaining is much, much larger than the remaining US market. So Apple could see world sales of the iPhone overtake US sales entirely. Perhaps that's the intent with their agressive release schedule - June for the US, July for Canada/Europe/Japan, August for much of the rest of the world, or something like that.
Android can technically, in terms of sheer numbers, "out-sell" the iPhone especially if the carriers are agressive around price-points, BOGOs and subsidies. However in real terms like profitability and customer loyalty, Apple can occupy 2nd or 3rd market sales volume position and still be fantastically successful. Just like marketcap, Apple has openly declared their lack of interest in being the majority player in smartphones (remember Steve initially said their target was 1% of the mobile phone market - which is the whole market - and they exceeded that this last year I believe). But they have been very successful also at setting the UI standards and establishing a consumer-driven ecosystem that forces the rest of the cell industry to scramble to address.
Android's problem is that it has a natural ceiling.
A certain segment of 'roll your own' techies will find it more to their liking, but ultimately, Google doesn't have a clue as to how to support a consumer product. They have no direct support infrastructure, leaving them at the mercy of their manufacturers. That means 1) second rate support, and 2) balkanization of the market. 'Android' will not be able to get a cohesive name as a brand.
I feel sorry for people with geek friends who insist that they get the 'superior' Android flavor of the month, and then leave them high and dry when it comes to support.
Apple has 30 years of direct end user support experience as well as the discipline it takes to focus on what the general customer (not the developer or fringe case) wants.
You also should blame all of the US for something I've said.
Yes, and Canadians, and Mexicans, and all those other Americans in Central/South America.
Back on topic, I don't think Apple can keep up with production at only 3M per month. Supply will be limited at that number based on the people I know with iPhones. Most everyone I know is on the 3G, and those on the 3GS are looking for the new one anyway because AT&T is offering the upgrade at a discount ($18 for people in a contract for a while, but also other discounts for people who just recently bought one this month.)
Sounds like pretty much everyone who owns an iPhone is going for the new one, and even my wife is looking to get out of Verizon for one. Believe me, that's a big deal because she was "never" leaving VZW. I know of a few others that aren't currently iPhone owners who will be getting one if they can.
I wonder what the deal is on buying/pre-ordering/reserving from an AT&T phone store? For me it's a 4-hour round trip to the nearest Apple Store.
Hopefully they offer FedEx service, like with the iPad. How far away are you from a Wal-Mart. That's an extra 5000k(?) stores in the US selling the iPhone 4 on the 24th.
Yes, and Canadians, and Mexicans, and all those other Americans in Central/South America.
Back on topic, I don't think Apple can keep up with production at only 3M per month. Supply will be limited at that number based on the people I know with iPhones. Most everyone I know is on the 3G, and those on the 3GS are looking for the new one anyway because AT&T is offering the upgrade at a discount ($18 for people in a contract for a while, but also other discounts for people who just recently bought one this month.)
Sounds like pretty much everyone who owns an iPhone is going for the new one, and even my wife is looking to get out of Verizon for one. Believe me, that's a big deal because she was "never" leaving VZW. I know of a few others that aren't currently iPhone owners who will be getting one if they can.
This makes me wonder just how many of the iphone4 model Apple will sell in 30 days? Does anyone know what is the current record for the most phones sold for one model in a 30 day period? Whatever it is, I feel confident Apple will smash it with the iPhone4. Their biggest advantage is it will be in 5 countries instead of one on June 24th. And the desire to get whole families into iPhone4 for the FaceTime will be hard to resist.
If I had to guess, I will say 5 million (3 million in the US and 2 million for the other 4 countries). I can't wait to upgrade my 3G.
Comments
At least we can spell.
Ho ho ho
The order bank pretty much shows that Apple know they have a winner. The feedback i'm getting from both current iPhone users and wannabes here in the UK is very positive. I also think they will have learned a lot from the iPad fiasco, they clearly underestimated that, which is understandable with a new product in a new category.
Do i sound like i'm psyched or what
Just because after four years, they've managed to get the supply sorted out in the US, doesn't mean there won't be shortages and delays almost everywhere else as usual.
The international view of Apple's product roll-outs is decidedly different than the view from the USA.
Please read the post I was replying to first. Even with iPhone shortages in previous years it wasn't hard to get an iPhone. Right now there is at least 2 weeks waiting period if you want to get a 3G iPad.
We all know supplies are limited and this is why Apple will release the iPhone in stages and not all countries at once. Using previous sale data Apple could help minimize shortages by sending more units to areas with higher demand.
Should be delivered on the 24th. Last year I pre-ordered my 3GS and it was delivered at 9am on the release date! Much better than standing in line.
Thanks for the info. Last year my wife took the kids and stood in line a long time. I think I'll just order and have it delivered this year. Just don't want to be waiting over the weekend if possible. But, in the grand scheme of life that wouldn't be that big of a deal.
I always wondered why that would be the case though. Assuming Android is crappy like everyone else says about iOS, then iOS will eventually dominate, even if it is late to the multi-carrier party.
Android's problem is that it has a natural ceiling.
A certain segment of 'roll your own' techies will find it more to their liking, but ultimately, Google doesn't have a clue as to how to support a consumer product. They have no direct support infrastructure, leaving them at the mercy of their manufacturers. That means 1) second rate support, and 2) balkanization of the market. 'Android' will not be able to get a cohesive name as a brand.
I feel sorry for people with geek friends who insist that they get the 'superior' Android flavor of the month, and then leave them high and dry when it comes to support.
Apple has 30 years of direct end user support experience as well as the discipline it takes to focus on what the general customer (not the developer or fringe case) wants.
Just my .02.
It's going to be tough to get more and more new users with only AT&T. There will be lots of upgraders but the longer Apple waits to add networks the more of a foothold Android will get.
So what if Android gets a foothold. Windows machines outnumber Apple machines when it comes to desktop computing, yet Apple manages to sell lots of hardware and make lots of money.
It is not that I think Apple ignores market share but it certainly isn't their primary focus. Nor should it be.
That being said, I believe the reason why AT&T expanded the eligibility requirements for the new phone is because they know they won't be the only iPhone carrier much longer and they want to get as many people as possible tied up with new 2 year contracts.
-kpluck
Please read the post I was replying to first. Even with iPhone shortages in previous years it wasn't hard to get an iPhone. Right now there is at least 2 weeks waiting period if you want to get a 3G iPad.
We all know supplies are limited and this is why Apple will release the iPhone in stages and not all countries at once. Using previous sale data Apple could help minimize shortages by sending more units to areas with higher demand.
Well, I don't think you are reading me either.
Even with the iPhone 4, if it arrives exactly on time and there are no shortages, it will still be several months after it's release before it arrives in my location. When it does, it will be hard to get, just like the last three times.
I'm not exactly aware of the situation in other countries, but this is how it was here.
At least we can spell.
Usually foreigners win spelling competitions in the States. Sorry Pal!
It's going to be tough to get more and more new users with only AT&T. There will be lots of upgraders but the longer Apple waits to add networks the more of a foothold Android will get.
but then you probably knew that. Didn't you?
True, but you are forgetting about the rest of the world which is the biggest part of the market.
I think it's interesting that with the first model they were hoping (with fingers crossed!) to sell 10 million in a year, and here we are four years later looking at 10 million a quarter.
I used to ascribe to the "Apple will only be a fraction of the Android dominated market in the end" view, but more and more lately I think this is just an expectation based on the history of Windows/Mac and has no real facts to support it. I don't see any reason why Apple couldn't totally dominate the mobile market and eventually take a 70, 80, or even 90% share (worldwide that is).
Prof., wasn't there an AI article sometime back that cited world share of iPhone sales was at like 46% of total iPhone sales. So not only is the "world" catching up in sales (as compared to US sales) but the market remaining is much, much larger than the remaining US market. So Apple could see world sales of the iPhone overtake US sales entirely. Perhaps that's the intent with their agressive release schedule - June for the US, July for Canada/Europe/Japan, August for much of the rest of the world, or something like that.
Android can technically, in terms of sheer numbers, "out-sell" the iPhone especially if the carriers are agressive around price-points, BOGOs and subsidies. However in real terms like profitability and customer loyalty, Apple can occupy 2nd or 3rd market sales volume position and still be fantastically successful. Just like marketcap, Apple has openly declared their lack of interest in being the majority player in smartphones (remember Steve initially said their target was 1% of the mobile phone market - which is the whole market - and they exceeded that this last year I believe). But they have been very successful also at setting the UI standards and establishing a consumer-driven ecosystem that forces the rest of the cell industry to scramble to address.
Android's problem is that it has a natural ceiling.
A certain segment of 'roll your own' techies will find it more to their liking, but ultimately, Google doesn't have a clue as to how to support a consumer product. They have no direct support infrastructure, leaving them at the mercy of their manufacturers. That means 1) second rate support, and 2) balkanization of the market. 'Android' will not be able to get a cohesive name as a brand.
I feel sorry for people with geek friends who insist that they get the 'superior' Android flavor of the month, and then leave them high and dry when it comes to support.
Apple has 30 years of direct end user support experience as well as the discipline it takes to focus on what the general customer (not the developer or fringe case) wants.
Just my .02.
All unassailable points.
Usually foreigners win spelling competitions in the States. Sorry Pal!
Huh!? 'Foreigners?'
What are you saying here?
You also should blame all of the US for something I've said.
Yes, and Canadians, and Mexicans, and all those other Americans in Central/South America.
Back on topic, I don't think Apple can keep up with production at only 3M per month. Supply will be limited at that number based on the people I know with iPhones. Most everyone I know is on the 3G, and those on the 3GS are looking for the new one anyway because AT&T is offering the upgrade at a discount ($18 for people in a contract for a while, but also other discounts for people who just recently bought one this month.)
Sounds like pretty much everyone who owns an iPhone is going for the new one, and even my wife is looking to get out of Verizon for one. Believe me, that's a big deal because she was "never" leaving VZW. I know of a few others that aren't currently iPhone owners who will be getting one if they can.
I wonder what the deal is on buying/pre-ordering/reserving from an AT&T phone store? For me it's a 4-hour round trip to the nearest Apple Store.
Hopefully they offer FedEx service, like with the iPad. How far away are you from a Wal-Mart. That's an extra 5000k(?) stores in the US selling the iPhone 4 on the 24th.
At least we can spell.
I'll give you that, some can.
Yes, and Canadians, and Mexicans, and all those other Americans in Central/South America.
Back on topic, I don't think Apple can keep up with production at only 3M per month. Supply will be limited at that number based on the people I know with iPhones. Most everyone I know is on the 3G, and those on the 3GS are looking for the new one anyway because AT&T is offering the upgrade at a discount ($18 for people in a contract for a while, but also other discounts for people who just recently bought one this month.)
Sounds like pretty much everyone who owns an iPhone is going for the new one, and even my wife is looking to get out of Verizon for one. Believe me, that's a big deal because she was "never" leaving VZW. I know of a few others that aren't currently iPhone owners who will be getting one if they can.
This makes me wonder just how many of the iphone4 model Apple will sell in 30 days? Does anyone know what is the current record for the most phones sold for one model in a 30 day period? Whatever it is, I feel confident Apple will smash it with the iPhone4. Their biggest advantage is it will be in 5 countries instead of one on June 24th. And the desire to get whole families into iPhone4 for the FaceTime will be hard to resist.
If I had to guess, I will say 5 million (3 million in the US and 2 million for the other 4 countries). I can't wait to upgrade my 3G.
Americans or so US centred! Have you ever heard of "the rest of the world?"
Yeah, some of us have.
In fact, I can see Russia from my iPhone!