Sure you can but you won't be right. No one will at this point unless good old shit luck plays a role.
Here in the US we are having a very important election cycle about to happen. History has proven that during these times the market tends to take a wait and see approach. If the Republicans do take the House and we end up with a lame duck President then God only knows what the market will do.
Apple and many companies for that matter are victims or our economy and are following the trends of the market not how well their business is doing.
Perhaps you meant to say: Sure you can, but the probability of you being correct is very low, due to mid term elections.
That would change your statement from a prediction to an opinion. (see earlier posts to "get" my humor)
In any case your mid-term elections are in early November, are they not? That would still give the stock market a lot of time to adjust before end of year. I think a lot of variables come into play re: the stock price of any stock. For Apple they include: what new products/services will they announce next week and before year end? What price changes, if any, will be in effect? Will the consumer, in general, loosen their purse strings this holiday season?
As you know, picking a stock and when to buy/sell is not an exact science but rather an "educated guess". That being said, as someone once told me ... an educated guess has more chance than no guess at all.
Perhaps you meant to say: Sure you can, but the probability of you being correct is very low, due to mid term elections.
That would change your statement from a prediction to an opinion. (see earlier posts to "get" my humor)
In any case your mid-term elections are in early November, are they not? That would still give the stock market a lot of time to adjust before end of year. I think a lot of variables come into play re: the stock price of any stock. For Apple they include: what new products/services will they announce next week and before year end? What price changes, if any, will be in effect? Will the consumer, in general, loosen their purse strings this holiday season?
As you know, picking a stock and when to buy/sell is not an exact science but rather an "educated guess". That being said, as someone once told me ... an educated guess has more chance than no guess at all.
Even though the midterm elections are in November the new members do not take office until the first of the year. We also have alot of other problems going on that impact the market. Jobs of course and the house market hit a new low this week which sent the market downward with Apple following.
I don't see either situation getting better anytime soon which tells me the market has no real positive indicator to gain steam.
Apple stock already got a very good bump this year from the iPad and I don't see them coming to market with anything major anytime soon. So I don't expect the stock to do much.
The tech sector can be very nasty, If the market gains I expect Apple to follow at a modest rate, if the market tanks I also expect Apple to follow just like it did the last time the market tanked. Remember Apple was down to about 87.00 not that long ago. So Apple just like any other company can be a victim of market trends.
I certainly agree with you there. If any of my friends ask for advice I flat refuse nowadays. I remember a while back I gave advice to a good friend and his life savings dwindled to around 60% of his initial investment. My name was dirt. People loved to chat about how bad my prediction was. But the fundamentals of the prediction were sound, the stock turned round, and another 6 months later he was up considerably.
But I did not enjoy those 6 months. I get no praise for his eventual good fortune. People only remember the bad news!
I'm not so worried about anyone taking or not taking the advice, I simply don't feel at all qualified to give it, even in a stock I've been holding for as long as I've held AAPL. Too many things have happened over the years that I could never have predicted. I made one really good investment decision. I also made a whole slew of bad ones. Funny but last year when AAPL was selling at around $100 my wife asked me if she should buy some. I told her it was up to her. She bought some then later asked if I thought she should buy more. Same answer. If I'm not going to give my wife investment advice then I'm sure not going to give it here. The principle doesn't change here just because this place is anonymous.
Even though the midterm elections are in November the new members do not take office until the first of the year. We also have alot of other problems going on that impact the market. Jobs of course and the house market hit a new low this week which sent the market downward with Apple following.
I don't see either situation getting better anytime soon which tells me the market has no real positive indicator to gain steam.
Apple stock already got a very good bump this year from the iPad and I don't see them coming to market with anything major anytime soon. So I don't expect the stock to do much.
The tech sector can be very nasty, If the market gains I expect Apple to follow at a modest rate, if the market tanks I also expect Apple to follow just like it did the last time the market tanked. Remember Apple was down to about 87.00 not that long ago. So Apple just like any other company can be a victim of market trends.
Re: mid-terms .... IMHO, just knowing who got elected is enough sometimes to take the "fear" out of the equation.
You're right about other problems impacting the market. It's wise to be cautious in this volatile market and if the market does, indeed, tank. you're right .... Apple would not be immune to that. Having said that, that's why it's always a good choice to only gamble (and it is a gamble) in the stockmarket with $$$$$ you can afford to lose.
I guess that if there is one point you and I disagree on it might be that Apple would only follow market gains at a modest rate.
I think the Oct. to Dec. quarter is the strongest retail part of the year, if you disregard any new product introductions ... and don't underestimate the pent up desire of all us "fanboys" to buy something ... anything ...haha!
Off topic - but re your sig, Maggie was a centrist. By Tea Party standards she'd be a communist lol. I worked part time for one of her campaigns. She was a tough lady
Not sure I get your point. Apple and Nasdaq both down 7.27%; Dow down 6.15%. Using the statistics you cite would seem to argue that apple's future would match the indices whose fall it matched, no? Few people are excited about the market's prospects in the next six months ("watch money pile tall" notwithstanding!)
I wouldn't exclude an apple run-up in the balance of the year, I just don't see how your stats support the conclusion you seem to be making. Or do you feel this is a huge buying opp'y for the market in general?
IMO (if I may interject), we're in for a period of market doldrums. After we see what direction the 2010 elections is heading, beyond the spin, then the market can re-adjust. Uncertainty is a stock killer.
With the iPods about to be introduced one would believe iOS 4.1 be installed on them and made available as the unifying iOS version. I can only hope Xcode 4.0 will be ready at this event or shortly thereafter. I want all the new goodness in the new IDE as promised when I go making apps.
I don't know why, but AAPL always seems to dip 5% - 10% a few days before every Apple media event. I seem to recall that it dropped sharply for absolutely no reason just before Apple's earnings announcement in January. There was no bad Apple news, no natural disaster, and no unusually bad economic news. Apple announced great number, and the stock bounced back up in the following days.
Smells like some kind of collusion between a major Apple shareholder and someone who has a short position on AAPL. As in "Hey, I'm shorting Apple on January 22. If you sell all your stock, it'll drop the value of AAPL and I'll give you 20% of my profits." Followed by "OK, we'll sell X million shares, on Friday January 22 at 08:00, and you give us 40% of your profits. We'll take payment in bearer bonds, for the sake of anonymity. Oh, and if you don't take our offer, we'll buy Y million shares on the 21st to boost AAPL. Take it or leave it..."
So the massive seller profits in three ways. First, they take the straight profit when they sell AAPL (since they presumably bought it at a lower price." Second, they take the cut of the profits made by the guy with the short position. Third, they can buy back their shares, plus more, at the lower price.
I bought one of those in '94, branded as a Performa+ 630 and it was a dog as was System 7.5.
If Apple really intend to bring out an HDTV there will need to be a compelling added value reason to make consumers steer away from offerings from the likes of Sony.
Perhaps a tarted up next gen iMac enclosed in a 50" screen.
You can take the New Mac mini and put it on ANY HDTV I say go for the 65" LED Samsung.
Comments
Sure you can but you won't be right. No one will at this point unless good old shit luck plays a role.
Here in the US we are having a very important election cycle about to happen. History has proven that during these times the market tends to take a wait and see approach. If the Republicans do take the House and we end up with a lame duck President then God only knows what the market will do.
Apple and many companies for that matter are victims or our economy and are following the trends of the market not how well their business is doing.
Perhaps you meant to say: Sure you can, but the probability of you being correct is very low, due to mid term elections.
That would change your statement from a prediction to an opinion.
In any case your mid-term elections are in early November, are they not? That would still give the stock market a lot of time to adjust before end of year. I think a lot of variables come into play re: the stock price of any stock. For Apple they include: what new products/services will they announce next week and before year end? What price changes, if any, will be in effect? Will the consumer, in general, loosen their purse strings this holiday season?
As you know, picking a stock and when to buy/sell is not an exact science but rather an "educated guess". That being said, as someone once told me ... an educated guess has more chance than no guess at all.
Perhaps you meant to say: Sure you can, but the probability of you being correct is very low, due to mid term elections.
That would change your statement from a prediction to an opinion.
In any case your mid-term elections are in early November, are they not? That would still give the stock market a lot of time to adjust before end of year. I think a lot of variables come into play re: the stock price of any stock. For Apple they include: what new products/services will they announce next week and before year end? What price changes, if any, will be in effect? Will the consumer, in general, loosen their purse strings this holiday season?
As you know, picking a stock and when to buy/sell is not an exact science but rather an "educated guess". That being said, as someone once told me ... an educated guess has more chance than no guess at all.
Even though the midterm elections are in November the new members do not take office until the first of the year. We also have alot of other problems going on that impact the market. Jobs of course and the house market hit a new low this week which sent the market downward with Apple following.
I don't see either situation getting better anytime soon which tells me the market has no real positive indicator to gain steam.
Apple stock already got a very good bump this year from the iPad and I don't see them coming to market with anything major anytime soon. So I don't expect the stock to do much.
The tech sector can be very nasty, If the market gains I expect Apple to follow at a modest rate, if the market tanks I also expect Apple to follow just like it did the last time the market tanked. Remember Apple was down to about 87.00 not that long ago. So Apple just like any other company can be a victim of market trends.
I certainly agree with you there. If any of my friends ask for advice I flat refuse nowadays. I remember a while back I gave advice to a good friend and his life savings dwindled to around 60% of his initial investment. My name was dirt. People loved to chat about how bad my prediction was. But the fundamentals of the prediction were sound, the stock turned round, and another 6 months later he was up considerably.
But I did not enjoy those 6 months. I get no praise for his eventual good fortune. People only remember the bad news!
I'm not so worried about anyone taking or not taking the advice, I simply don't feel at all qualified to give it, even in a stock I've been holding for as long as I've held AAPL. Too many things have happened over the years that I could never have predicted. I made one really good investment decision. I also made a whole slew of bad ones. Funny but last year when AAPL was selling at around $100 my wife asked me if she should buy some. I told her it was up to her. She bought some then later asked if I thought she should buy more. Same answer. If I'm not going to give my wife investment advice then I'm sure not going to give it here. The principle doesn't change here just because this place is anonymous.
Even though the midterm elections are in November the new members do not take office until the first of the year. We also have alot of other problems going on that impact the market. Jobs of course and the house market hit a new low this week which sent the market downward with Apple following.
I don't see either situation getting better anytime soon which tells me the market has no real positive indicator to gain steam.
Apple stock already got a very good bump this year from the iPad and I don't see them coming to market with anything major anytime soon. So I don't expect the stock to do much.
The tech sector can be very nasty, If the market gains I expect Apple to follow at a modest rate, if the market tanks I also expect Apple to follow just like it did the last time the market tanked. Remember Apple was down to about 87.00 not that long ago. So Apple just like any other company can be a victim of market trends.
Re: mid-terms .... IMHO, just knowing who got elected is enough sometimes to take the "fear" out of the equation.
You're right about other problems impacting the market. It's wise to be cautious in this volatile market and if the market does, indeed, tank. you're right .... Apple would not be immune to that. Having said that, that's why it's always a good choice to only gamble (and it is a gamble) in the stockmarket with $$$$$ you can afford to lose.
I guess that if there is one point you and I disagree on it might be that Apple would only follow market gains at a modest rate.
I think the Oct. to Dec. quarter is the strongest retail part of the year, if you disregard any new product introductions ... and don't underestimate the pent up desire of all us "fanboys" to buy something ... anything ...haha!
Then should I buy AAPL now?
You can use my TradeSpell or TradeSpell HD apps and wait for a buy signal on AAPL
Off topic - but re your sig, Maggie was a centrist. By Tea Party standards she'd be a communist lol. I worked part time for one of her campaigns. She was a tough lady
It's all fine by me, I'm no Tea Partier.
Not sure I get your point. Apple and Nasdaq both down 7.27%; Dow down 6.15%. Using the statistics you cite would seem to argue that apple's future would match the indices whose fall it matched, no? Few people are excited about the market's prospects in the next six months ("watch money pile tall" notwithstanding!)
I wouldn't exclude an apple run-up in the balance of the year, I just don't see how your stats support the conclusion you seem to be making. Or do you feel this is a huge buying opp'y for the market in general?
IMO (if I may interject), we're in for a period of market doldrums. After we see what direction the 2010 elections is heading, beyond the spin, then the market can re-adjust. Uncertainty is a stock killer.
You can use my TradeSpell or TradeSpell HD apps and wait for a buy signal on AAPL
Uh-oh. Guess you didn't get the memo. No promoting your apps in the threads. If you want to buy an ad, talk to Kasper.
I don't know why, but AAPL always seems to dip 5% - 10% a few days before every Apple media event. I seem to recall that it dropped sharply for absolutely no reason just before Apple's earnings announcement in January. There was no bad Apple news, no natural disaster, and no unusually bad economic news. Apple announced great number, and the stock bounced back up in the following days.
Smells like some kind of collusion between a major Apple shareholder and someone who has a short position on AAPL. As in "Hey, I'm shorting Apple on January 22. If you sell all your stock, it'll drop the value of AAPL and I'll give you 20% of my profits." Followed by "OK, we'll sell X million shares, on Friday January 22 at 08:00, and you give us 40% of your profits. We'll take payment in bearer bonds, for the sake of anonymity. Oh, and if you don't take our offer, we'll buy Y million shares on the 21st to boost AAPL. Take it or leave it..."
So the massive seller profits in three ways. First, they take the straight profit when they sell AAPL (since they presumably bought it at a lower price." Second, they take the cut of the profits made by the guy with the short position. Third, they can buy back their shares, plus more, at the lower price.
Here's Fortune's take: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/01/...points-friday/
...meanwhile, us average Joes hard-earn our living.
Uh-oh. Guess you didn't get the memo. No promoting your apps in the threads. If you want to buy an ad, talk to Kasper.
Should I change my signature?
Apple will never release an all-in-one tv. Never.
Apple will never release an iPod without screen under 100$. Oh wait!
Should I change my signature?
Hmm... Probably, but check with Kasper, the owner of this site.
Maggie is a legend. Unlike most in my country, I have utmost respect for her.
By Tea Party standards, Barry Goldwater was a communist (and a Nazi).
I bought one of those in '94, branded as a Performa+ 630 and it was a dog as was System 7.5.
If Apple really intend to bring out an HDTV there will need to be a compelling added value reason to make consumers steer away from offerings from the likes of Sony.
Perhaps a tarted up next gen iMac enclosed in a 50" screen.
You can take the New Mac mini and put it on ANY HDTV I say go for the 65" LED Samsung.