According to the CDMA development group there are about 557 million CDMA devices in the world. While we're all focused on the huge opportunity that is China, India is also a country of 1 Billion in population and roughly 20% of all phones are CDMA. India has not been a strong market for Apple. So a CDMA phone may well be interesting for other reasons than Verizon and Verizon may or may not be the reason why Apple might be pursuing a CDMA phone. Verizon may simply be a consequence rather than a cause.
According to the CDMA development group there are about 557 million CDMA devices in the world. While we're all focused on the huge opportunity that is China, India is also a country of 1 Billion in population and roughly 20% of all phones are CDMA. India has not been a strong market for Apple. So a CDMA phone may well be interesting for other reasons than Verizon and Verizon may or may not be the reason why Apple might be pursuing a CDMA phone. Verizon may simply be a consequence rather than a cause.
When looking at CDMA ?2G? numbers it might behoove you to remove the sub numbers that use UMTS for ?3G?.
For example, S. Korea has had the iPhone for the year now and it runs on their UMTS ?3G? while stilling have a CDMA ?2G? backend that is going unused by the iPhone yet still be counted in the numbers you posted. This will become more and more common as ?3G? and eventually ?4G? technologies take hold.
For that reason, I?d focus on the sub numbers that are using EV-DO enable phones as that more closely represents the real market for a CDMA/EV-DO iPhone.
Your are probably right if there is a sim tray. Remember since early this year we have seen identifiers 3,1/ 3,2 / 3,3. I have long asserted the other two versions are GSM 1700 and CDMA.
I couldn't imagine that when AT&T exclusivity ends this year that T-Mobile doesn't pick it up. I heard from reputable person @ AT&T that the T-Mobile deal was done last year, but Apple desired to maintain exclusivity until agreement with Verizon at others could be made, added several carriers at once. T-Mobile and Apple already have a relationship abroad.
I would also think that the CDMA version should be in field test as well. Been hearing all year it was scheduled for Nov/Dec production. Maybe it's 3,3? Keeping GSM models for the first two (3,1 & 3,2) instead of CDMA in the middle, just seems more organized identification method.
Are you 'the' Turley Muller, the financial analyst?
If so how would you factor a CMDA iPhone into your Apple iPhone sales forecasts? Surely you've given it some thought.
Are you 'the' Turley Muller, the financial analyst?
If so how would you factor a CMDA iPhone into your Apple iPhone sales forecasts? Surely you've given it some thought.
Yes, this is he.
For iPhone at Verizon, it could be huge. I estimate iPhone penetration is 20-25% of AT&T postpaid sub base, and while VZ only has less than 2M more wireless subs than AT&T, it has 15M more postpaid subs. In addition, it also appears VZ PP subscribers are of a little higher quality in terms of disposable income, overall. Several surveys revealed nearly 20% of VZ customers were very likely to buy and iPhone, while 50% said they were somewhat likely. It's possible VZ could add 3M in unit sales per quarter. T-Mobile & Sprint could supply 1M per quarter each. I total, carrier expansion in US could add 5M per quarter to AT&T's current run-rate of 3M+. (AT&T should give iPhone activations Thursday which could top 4M). For every 1M incremental units, EPS increases 20-25 cents.
Besides the US, Japan is the most significant multi-carrier opportunity. Softbank has only 20% of the market, yet iPhone has 15% or more of Softbank subscriber base. Opening up to the #1 & # 2 carriers increases addressable market from roughly 20M to nearly 100M. I think one of the other carriers may be on CDMA and the other on GSM, yet it's a funky W-CDMA standard. I need to research that more.
Behind Japan, there is Korea and China. China's largest carrier (China Mobile) uses TD-SCDMA and China Telecom is on CDMA/EVDO.
So maybe we could see couple more international carriers picked up that are on CDMA and perhaps a couple on GSM 1700. If any of the carriers with non-traditional networks get the iPhone, it won't be until at least IP5, or perhaps later on LTE.
Behind Japan, there is Korea and China. China's largest carrier (China Mobile) uses TD-SCDMA and China Telecom is on CDMA/EVDO.
I see no reason why a CDMA/EV-DO iPhone would even need to go to S. Korea when KT and SK Telecom use UMTS for ?3G?. Only LG is stuck with CDMA2000 for ?3G? and they have a paltry 7M total subs last time I checked.
Indonesia has more viable CDMA/EV-DO customers, and lets not forget India with their quarter million subs on that network type.
I see no reason why a CDMA/EV-DO iPhone would even need to go to S. Korea when KT and SK Telecom use UMTS for ?3G?. Only LG is stuck with CDMA2000 for ?3G? and they have a paltry 7M total subs last time I checked.
Indonesia has more viable CDMA/EV-DO customers, and lets not forget India with their quarter million subs on that network type.
I agree. Korea doesn't need a CDMA model, I didn't mean to suggest that it did. Rather, Korea needs SK Telecom since iPhone has done so well at KT.
Indonesia would be a good add. India has tons of mobile subs too, however very few with much income. I think India will become much more important in a few years, GDP and incomes are rising extremely fast.
For iPhone at Verizon, it could be huge. I estimate iPhone penetration is 20-25% of AT&T postpaid sub base, and while VZ only has less than 2M more wireless subs than AT&T, it has 15M more postpaid subs. In addition, it also appears VZ PP subscribers are of a little higher quality in terms of disposable income, overall. Several surveys revealed nearly 20% of VZ customers were very likely to buy and iPhone, while 50% said they were somewhat likely. It's possible VZ could add 3M in unit sales per quarter. T-Mobile & Sprint could supply 1M per quarter each. I total, carrier expansion in US could add 5M per quarter to AT&T's current run-rate of 3M+. (AT&T should give iPhone activations Thursday which could top 4M). For every 1M incremental units, EPS increases 20-25 cents.
Besides the US, Japan is the most significant multi-carrier opportunity. Softbank has only 20% of the market, yet iPhone has 15% or more of Softbank subscriber base. Opening up to the #1 & # 2 carriers increases addressable market from roughly 20M to nearly 100M. I think one of the other carriers may be on CDMA and the other on GSM, yet it's a funky W-CDMA standard. I need to research that more.
Behind Japan, there is Korea and China. China's largest carrier (China Mobile) uses TD-SCDMA and China Telecom is on CDMA/EVDO.
So maybe we could see couple more international carriers picked up that are on CDMA and perhaps a couple on GSM 1700. If any of the carriers with non-traditional networks get the iPhone, it won't be until at least IP5, or perhaps later on LTE.
Thanks for the reply and thoughtful analysis.
As an Apple investor its starting to piss me off that they're dragging their feet getting the iPhone on the other US carriers. They're leaving a lot of money on the table.
Comments
According to the CDMA development group there are about 557 million CDMA devices in the world. While we're all focused on the huge opportunity that is China, India is also a country of 1 Billion in population and roughly 20% of all phones are CDMA. India has not been a strong market for Apple. So a CDMA phone may well be interesting for other reasons than Verizon and Verizon may or may not be the reason why Apple might be pursuing a CDMA phone. Verizon may simply be a consequence rather than a cause.
When looking at CDMA ?2G? numbers it might behoove you to remove the sub numbers that use UMTS for ?3G?.
For example, S. Korea has had the iPhone for the year now and it runs on their UMTS ?3G? while stilling have a CDMA ?2G? backend that is going unused by the iPhone yet still be counted in the numbers you posted. This will become more and more common as ?3G? and eventually ?4G? technologies take hold.
For that reason, I?d focus on the sub numbers that are using EV-DO enable phones as that more closely represents the real market for a CDMA/EV-DO iPhone.
Your are probably right if there is a sim tray. Remember since early this year we have seen identifiers 3,1/ 3,2 / 3,3. I have long asserted the other two versions are GSM 1700 and CDMA.
I couldn't imagine that when AT&T exclusivity ends this year that T-Mobile doesn't pick it up. I heard from reputable person @ AT&T that the T-Mobile deal was done last year, but Apple desired to maintain exclusivity until agreement with Verizon at others could be made, added several carriers at once. T-Mobile and Apple already have a relationship abroad.
I would also think that the CDMA version should be in field test as well. Been hearing all year it was scheduled for Nov/Dec production. Maybe it's 3,3? Keeping GSM models for the first two (3,1 & 3,2) instead of CDMA in the middle, just seems more organized identification method.
Are you 'the' Turley Muller, the financial analyst?
If so how would you factor a CMDA iPhone into your Apple iPhone sales forecasts? Surely you've given it some thought.
Are you 'the' Turley Muller, the financial analyst?
If so how would you factor a CMDA iPhone into your Apple iPhone sales forecasts? Surely you've given it some thought.
Yes, this is he.
For iPhone at Verizon, it could be huge. I estimate iPhone penetration is 20-25% of AT&T postpaid sub base, and while VZ only has less than 2M more wireless subs than AT&T, it has 15M more postpaid subs. In addition, it also appears VZ PP subscribers are of a little higher quality in terms of disposable income, overall. Several surveys revealed nearly 20% of VZ customers were very likely to buy and iPhone, while 50% said they were somewhat likely. It's possible VZ could add 3M in unit sales per quarter. T-Mobile & Sprint could supply 1M per quarter each. I total, carrier expansion in US could add 5M per quarter to AT&T's current run-rate of 3M+. (AT&T should give iPhone activations Thursday which could top 4M). For every 1M incremental units, EPS increases 20-25 cents.
Besides the US, Japan is the most significant multi-carrier opportunity. Softbank has only 20% of the market, yet iPhone has 15% or more of Softbank subscriber base. Opening up to the #1 & # 2 carriers increases addressable market from roughly 20M to nearly 100M. I think one of the other carriers may be on CDMA and the other on GSM, yet it's a funky W-CDMA standard. I need to research that more.
Behind Japan, there is Korea and China. China's largest carrier (China Mobile) uses TD-SCDMA and China Telecom is on CDMA/EVDO.
So maybe we could see couple more international carriers picked up that are on CDMA and perhaps a couple on GSM 1700. If any of the carriers with non-traditional networks get the iPhone, it won't be until at least IP5, or perhaps later on LTE.
Behind Japan, there is Korea and China. China's largest carrier (China Mobile) uses TD-SCDMA and China Telecom is on CDMA/EVDO.
I see no reason why a CDMA/EV-DO iPhone would even need to go to S. Korea when KT and SK Telecom use UMTS for ?3G?. Only LG is stuck with CDMA2000 for ?3G? and they have a paltry 7M total subs last time I checked.
Indonesia has more viable CDMA/EV-DO customers, and lets not forget India with their quarter million subs on that network type.
I see no reason why a CDMA/EV-DO iPhone would even need to go to S. Korea when KT and SK Telecom use UMTS for ?3G?. Only LG is stuck with CDMA2000 for ?3G? and they have a paltry 7M total subs last time I checked.
Indonesia has more viable CDMA/EV-DO customers, and lets not forget India with their quarter million subs on that network type.
I agree. Korea doesn't need a CDMA model, I didn't mean to suggest that it did. Rather, Korea needs SK Telecom since iPhone has done so well at KT.
Indonesia would be a good add. India has tons of mobile subs too, however very few with much income. I think India will become much more important in a few years, GDP and incomes are rising extremely fast.
Yes, this is he.
For iPhone at Verizon, it could be huge. I estimate iPhone penetration is 20-25% of AT&T postpaid sub base, and while VZ only has less than 2M more wireless subs than AT&T, it has 15M more postpaid subs. In addition, it also appears VZ PP subscribers are of a little higher quality in terms of disposable income, overall. Several surveys revealed nearly 20% of VZ customers were very likely to buy and iPhone, while 50% said they were somewhat likely. It's possible VZ could add 3M in unit sales per quarter. T-Mobile & Sprint could supply 1M per quarter each. I total, carrier expansion in US could add 5M per quarter to AT&T's current run-rate of 3M+. (AT&T should give iPhone activations Thursday which could top 4M). For every 1M incremental units, EPS increases 20-25 cents.
Besides the US, Japan is the most significant multi-carrier opportunity. Softbank has only 20% of the market, yet iPhone has 15% or more of Softbank subscriber base. Opening up to the #1 & # 2 carriers increases addressable market from roughly 20M to nearly 100M. I think one of the other carriers may be on CDMA and the other on GSM, yet it's a funky W-CDMA standard. I need to research that more.
Behind Japan, there is Korea and China. China's largest carrier (China Mobile) uses TD-SCDMA and China Telecom is on CDMA/EVDO.
So maybe we could see couple more international carriers picked up that are on CDMA and perhaps a couple on GSM 1700. If any of the carriers with non-traditional networks get the iPhone, it won't be until at least IP5, or perhaps later on LTE.
Thanks for the reply and thoughtful analysis.
As an Apple investor its starting to piss me off that they're dragging their feet getting the iPhone on the other US carriers. They're leaving a lot of money on the table.