I'm starting to wonder if Microsoft actually has the right idea in tossing out the old Windows UI.
Would it really be so crazy for Apple to do the same thing? i.e. hide the legacy OSX UI behind some power user option and present a new user with a default user experience that closer mimics an iPad than a current iMac?
It would sure help those iOS developers move across to Mac if they were running similar code and UI/UX.
The geek in me screams "no way"... but the geek part of my mind has consistently been wrong about this kind of stuff.
Steve Jobs briefly mentioned in the last keynote something about people "not needing to learn the file system"
Most people I know, if something is not on their desktop, they have no idea where it is. They don't get the concept of folders in folders... and if you think about it... the more all of our "files" are on computers.. then even the "folder" concept won't make sense because eventually people won't have paper and never have used actual folders.... notice the CD was removed from the iTunes logo...
The next step is hiding the file system.... even on desktops:
- If you want your photos they are in the photos app.
- if you want your movies they are in the movie app.
- If you want your music, they are in the music app.
- If you want your documents and spreadsheets, they are in the docs/office app.
This is also why google has a simple "archive" button...People are not librarians and can not (and shoot not) organize their info/data/files/etc.
Way too small of a sample size to mean anything. This number represents less then 0.9% of the attendees this year and less then 0.4% of attendees in the past year. It is fairly rare to have a developer that writes for both, so somehow this survey is skewed. Maybe the developers had a co-worker that wrote for android? My impression was that the number is much smaller. I rarely found someone working on Android at the conference. I heard a lot of things like: Sometimes we write Android apps but generally iOS only. Most developers say Android owners don't buy anything, so I don't know where the growth potential comes from. Maybe the most growth for free apps.
The sample size actually isn't anywhere close to the largest issue (although certainly it is not great and would yield pretty large confidence intervals). The proper sample size actually has absolutely nothing to do with the size of the total population you're measuring. For instance, national polls for presidential election are routinely only a couple thousand people. This is a MUCH smaller percentage of likely voters than .9%. The main issue is whether this is a representative sample?
The answer is almost certainly a big fat no. Does anyone really think someone with the resources to attend WWDC represents the typical developer? Almost certainly not. This really is not a survey of "iOS developers" but rather a survey of iOS developers with the resources and time to attend WWDC. Those groups are almost certainly rather different, which severely limits the generalizability of the survey, no matter what the sample size.
For instance, national polls for presidential election are routinely only a couple thousand people. This is a MUCH smaller percentage of likely voters than .9%. The main issue is whether this is a representative sample?
Exactly! This survey is a decent cover of WWDC attendees who develop for iOS. It's suggestive of the sentiments of the wider iOS dev community - rather like a focus group might be. It's marketing puff for the entire mobile dev universe.
I attended the WWDC but was not surveyed. I am 100% iOS and has no interest whatsoever on xxdroid. So that increase the sample to 46 and the revised figures
I attended the WWDC but was not surveyed. I am 100% iOS and has no interest whatsoever on xxdroid. So that increase the sample to 46 and the revised figures
iOS 100%
iPad 94%
Mac 8%
No other platform 37%
Android 45%
it's interesting that 63% of devs don't code for another other than iOS.
Do you work for AI? The title may be "accurate" based on the data collected, but it's misleading. Something can be correct but be communicated poorly. It's certainly not clear.
Exactly! This survey is a decent cover of WWDC attendees who develop for iOS. It's suggestive of the sentiments of the wider iOS dev community - rather like a focus group might be. It's marketing puff for the entire mobile dev universe.
Woah, hang on there a minute. A focus group is both a data collection and analysis methodology. Typically consisting of 8-12 participants, facilitated by a trained facilitator, and yielding in depth descriptions from a small homogeneous sample. WWDC developers are not a homogeneous population but rather diverse.
The design and methodology utilized in the article is a survey. Mostly likely employing paper-and-pencil data collection techniques and incoportating descriptive statistics.
Two entirely different research designs and methodologies.
It's hardly surprising that iOS (mobile developers) would be more likely to develop for another mobile platform, than for a desktop platform. I mean, honestly!!!
It's hardly surprising that iOS (mobile developers) would be more likely to develop for another mobile platform, than for a desktop platform. I mean, honestly!!!
Way too small of a sample size to mean anything. This number represents less then 0.9% of the attendees this year and less then 0.4% of attendees in the past year. It is fairly rare to have a developer that writes for both, so somehow this survey is skewed. Maybe the developers had a co-worker that wrote for android? My impression was that the number is much smaller. I rarely found someone working on Android at the conference. I heard a lot of things like: Sometimes we write Android apps but generally iOS only. Most developers say Android owners don't buy anything, so I don't know where the growth potential comes from. Maybe the most growth for free apps.
Depends how the sample was select, but it is likely off. (Mostly because PJ is nor known for its rigorous methodolgy) Keep in mind that they can get a fairly accurate view on 60 million voters with a sample size of 1-2k.
Almost certainly not. This really is not a survey of "iOS developers" but rather a survey of iOS developers with the resources and time to attend WWDC. Those groups are almost certainly rather different, which severely limits the generalizability of the survey, no matter what the sample size.
I agree their methods are likely flawed, but they do state it as representing attendees and not the community as a whole.
But a bit high on multi-platform from what I found last week. For any developer working for a company of developers, I found they all seemed to have cross platform solutions though Android was the bastard step child that no-one wanted to work on. For smaller single person individual developers, they seemed to concentrate on a single OS. This is true with the exception of a single programmer doing Mono-Touch apps that were fully cross platform. Yes, his apps were very successful with over 12.5 million downloads on iOS alone.
I did find one comment from a cross platform game developer interesting, however. At his company (20 programmers), 80% of their revenue comes from iOS. All Apps start life on iOS. 70% of their developer resources are dedicated to Android. Only 2 programmers actually prefer developing on Android compared to iOS. They keep 8 iPhones/iPod touches/iPads for testing. They keep almost 100 Android phones for testing.
I found those numbers interesting. You need substantially more resources to work on Android for substantially less returns. 70% of your resources for 20% of your returns. I wonder how long companies will continue this loosing combination?
IOS is HOT now and Mac is not so hot but warming up
Android is a consumer hottie but not a hottie for developers for their monatization so Not so hot, worrisome. Apple will continue to be the steady, solid, dependable OS going into the future. MS is full of holes and pirated like crazy and the Android family seems to be going down the same road. The fork in the road came 4 years ago with iPhone. Now the one path takes us down Cupertino Lane and the other to MsAnadoid Fun Palace. You Choose...
I did find one comment from a cross platform game developer interesting, however. At his company (20 programmers), 80% of their revenue comes from iOS. All Apps start life on iOS. 70% of their developer resources are dedicated to Android. Only 2 programmers actually prefer developing on Android compared to iOS. They keep 8 iPhones/iPod touches/iPads for testing. They keep almost 100 Android phones for testing.
It's only getting worse too, as more entrants try to climb aboard the Android bus, Google has had to start limiting tickets. HTC alone has four times the number of models of phone as Apple. The need for Android makers to compete with each other on hardware points they are under tremendous pressure to spin out a large number of models every year, while Apple can be expected to produce one phone, one ipod-touch and one ipad per year.
Do not disagree with you and no one should even attempt to make any conclusions from this data. With that said....
This is done all the time and most people seem to want to believe the statistics. Every year at election time they survey a few hundred people and predict the winner of an election weeks prior for millions of votes. Most people are stupid to believe this so they either do not vote or change it since they want to think they voting for the winner.
I use to deal with lots of Stats, and it was once told to me that there are 3 kinds of lairs in the world, the Lair, the damn lair and the Statistician.
Quote:
Originally Posted by asterion
OK... So, according to http://www.mobiledevhq.com/developers, (the only reference I can find at short notice) there are at least 61,000 iPhone developers.
This means that Piper Jaffray's "survey" of 45 developers is a sample of around 0.074%.
As any qualified researcher will tell you, this sample is simply too small to be able to draw any meaningful conclusions about the entire body of IOS developers. To then go further and translate these small numbers into tables of percentages demonstrates heroic cretinism skills. And to then try to infer conclusions about Android or IOS market changes from this microscopic speck of data... Well that's beyond ridiculous.
This is like me stopping 45 people wearing shoes, asking them some basic questions and then claiming to have some insight into the global shoe market.
The fact that this sort of bogus, primary school spin is being hyped as 'research' by a so-called investment company suggests two things: (1) they are morons; and (2) they may have a hidden agenda...
Comments
I'm starting to wonder if Microsoft actually has the right idea in tossing out the old Windows UI.
Would it really be so crazy for Apple to do the same thing? i.e. hide the legacy OSX UI behind some power user option and present a new user with a default user experience that closer mimics an iPad than a current iMac?
It would sure help those iOS developers move across to Mac if they were running similar code and UI/UX.
The geek in me screams "no way"... but the geek part of my mind has consistently been wrong about this kind of stuff.
Steve Jobs briefly mentioned in the last keynote something about people "not needing to learn the file system"
Most people I know, if something is not on their desktop, they have no idea where it is. They don't get the concept of folders in folders... and if you think about it... the more all of our "files" are on computers.. then even the "folder" concept won't make sense because eventually people won't have paper and never have used actual folders.... notice the CD was removed from the iTunes logo...
The next step is hiding the file system.... even on desktops:
- If you want your photos they are in the photos app.
- if you want your movies they are in the movie app.
- If you want your music, they are in the music app.
- If you want your documents and spreadsheets, they are in the docs/office app.
This is also why google has a simple "archive" button...People are not librarians and can not (and shoot not) organize their info/data/files/etc.
Way too small of a sample size to mean anything. This number represents less then 0.9% of the attendees this year and less then 0.4% of attendees in the past year. It is fairly rare to have a developer that writes for both, so somehow this survey is skewed. Maybe the developers had a co-worker that wrote for android? My impression was that the number is much smaller. I rarely found someone working on Android at the conference. I heard a lot of things like: Sometimes we write Android apps but generally iOS only. Most developers say Android owners don't buy anything, so I don't know where the growth potential comes from. Maybe the most growth for free apps.
The sample size actually isn't anywhere close to the largest issue (although certainly it is not great and would yield pretty large confidence intervals). The proper sample size actually has absolutely nothing to do with the size of the total population you're measuring. For instance, national polls for presidential election are routinely only a couple thousand people. This is a MUCH smaller percentage of likely voters than .9%. The main issue is whether this is a representative sample?
The answer is almost certainly a big fat no. Does anyone really think someone with the resources to attend WWDC represents the typical developer? Almost certainly not. This really is not a survey of "iOS developers" but rather a survey of iOS developers with the resources and time to attend WWDC. Those groups are almost certainly rather different, which severely limits the generalizability of the survey, no matter what the sample size.
"iOS developer survey: 47% are on Android too, only 7% on Mac"
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/...oo-only-7-mac/
Just adding the word "too" changes everything.
For instance, national polls for presidential election are routinely only a couple thousand people. This is a MUCH smaller percentage of likely voters than .9%. The main issue is whether this is a representative sample?
Exactly! This survey is a decent cover of WWDC attendees who develop for iOS. It's suggestive of the sentiments of the wider iOS dev community - rather like a focus group might be. It's marketing puff for the entire mobile dev universe.
I attended the WWDC but was not surveyed. I am 100% iOS and has no interest whatsoever on xxdroid. So that increase the sample to 46 and the revised figures
iOS 100%
iPad 94%
Mac 8%
No other platform 37%
Android 45%
At least Fortune understands this:
"iOS developer survey: 47% are on Android too, only 7% on Mac"
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/06/...oo-only-7-mac/
Just adding the word "too" changes everything.
AI title is perfectly clear.
I attended the WWDC but was not surveyed. I am 100% iOS and has no interest whatsoever on xxdroid. So that increase the sample to 46 and the revised figures
iOS 100%
iPad 94%
Mac 8%
No other platform 37%
Android 45%
it's interesting that 63% of devs don't code for another other than iOS.
AI title is perfectly clear.
Do you work for AI? The title may be "accurate" based on the data collected, but it's misleading. Something can be correct but be communicated poorly. It's certainly not clear.
Exactly! This survey is a decent cover of WWDC attendees who develop for iOS. It's suggestive of the sentiments of the wider iOS dev community - rather like a focus group might be. It's marketing puff for the entire mobile dev universe.
Woah, hang on there a minute. A focus group is both a data collection and analysis methodology. Typically consisting of 8-12 participants, facilitated by a trained facilitator, and yielding in depth descriptions from a small homogeneous sample. WWDC developers are not a homogeneous population but rather diverse.
The design and methodology utilized in the article is a survey. Mostly likely employing paper-and-pencil data collection techniques and incoportating descriptive statistics.
Two entirely different research designs and methodologies.
Suggestive = inferential.
Analyst Gene Munster and his team polled 45 developers at the Apple conference
Some team - in a whole week, they polled only 45 developers? Some team!
It's hardly surprising that iOS (mobile developers) would be more likely to develop for another mobile platform, than for a desktop platform. I mean, honestly!!!
How is this even news?
It's hardly surprising that iOS (mobile developers) would be more likely to develop for another mobile platform, than for a desktop platform. I mean, honestly!!!
Good point!
Way too small of a sample size to mean anything. This number represents less then 0.9% of the attendees this year and less then 0.4% of attendees in the past year. It is fairly rare to have a developer that writes for both, so somehow this survey is skewed. Maybe the developers had a co-worker that wrote for android? My impression was that the number is much smaller. I rarely found someone working on Android at the conference. I heard a lot of things like: Sometimes we write Android apps but generally iOS only. Most developers say Android owners don't buy anything, so I don't know where the growth potential comes from. Maybe the most growth for free apps.
Depends how the sample was select, but it is likely off. (Mostly because PJ is nor known for its rigorous methodolgy) Keep in mind that they can get a fairly accurate view on 60 million voters with a sample size of 1-2k.
Almost certainly not. This really is not a survey of "iOS developers" but rather a survey of iOS developers with the resources and time to attend WWDC. Those groups are almost certainly rather different, which severely limits the generalizability of the survey, no matter what the sample size.
I agree their methods are likely flawed, but they do state it as representing attendees and not the community as a whole.
Good point!
Exactly! The headline could read: Survey finds of 47% of Android developers only 2% write for Windows. Pahleese!
I did find one comment from a cross platform game developer interesting, however. At his company (20 programmers), 80% of their revenue comes from iOS. All Apps start life on iOS. 70% of their developer resources are dedicated to Android. Only 2 programmers actually prefer developing on Android compared to iOS. They keep 8 iPhones/iPod touches/iPads for testing. They keep almost 100 Android phones for testing.
I found those numbers interesting. You need substantially more resources to work on Android for substantially less returns. 70% of your resources for 20% of your returns. I wonder how long companies will continue this loosing combination?
Android is a consumer hottie but not a hottie for developers for their monatization so Not so hot, worrisome. Apple will continue to be the steady, solid, dependable OS going into the future. MS is full of holes and pirated like crazy and the Android family seems to be going down the same road. The fork in the road came 4 years ago with iPhone. Now the one path takes us down Cupertino Lane and the other to MsAnadoid Fun Palace. You Choose...
I did find one comment from a cross platform game developer interesting, however. At his company (20 programmers), 80% of their revenue comes from iOS. All Apps start life on iOS. 70% of their developer resources are dedicated to Android. Only 2 programmers actually prefer developing on Android compared to iOS. They keep 8 iPhones/iPod touches/iPads for testing. They keep almost 100 Android phones for testing.
It's only getting worse too, as more entrants try to climb aboard the Android bus, Google has had to start limiting tickets. HTC alone has four times the number of models of phone as Apple. The need for Android makers to compete with each other on hardware points they are under tremendous pressure to spin out a large number of models every year, while Apple can be expected to produce one phone, one ipod-touch and one ipad per year.
This is done all the time and most people seem to want to believe the statistics. Every year at election time they survey a few hundred people and predict the winner of an election weeks prior for millions of votes. Most people are stupid to believe this so they either do not vote or change it since they want to think they voting for the winner.
I use to deal with lots of Stats, and it was once told to me that there are 3 kinds of lairs in the world, the Lair, the damn lair and the Statistician.
OK... So, according to http://www.mobiledevhq.com/developers, (the only reference I can find at short notice) there are at least 61,000 iPhone developers.
This means that Piper Jaffray's "survey" of 45 developers is a sample of around 0.074%.
As any qualified researcher will tell you, this sample is simply too small to be able to draw any meaningful conclusions about the entire body of IOS developers. To then go further and translate these small numbers into tables of percentages demonstrates heroic cretinism skills. And to then try to infer conclusions about Android or IOS market changes from this microscopic speck of data... Well that's beyond ridiculous.
This is like me stopping 45 people wearing shoes, asking them some basic questions and then claiming to have some insight into the global shoe market.
The fact that this sort of bogus, primary school spin is being hyped as 'research' by a so-called investment company suggests two things: (1) they are morons; and (2) they may have a hidden agenda...
Idiots!