More likely it would decimate Samsung's market share. I can't see Bada going anywhere. There are already too many smartphone OSes (iOS, Android, QNX, Windows Phone, WebOS). Not all of these will survive. Developers are not going to support them all. Yet another OS is simply going to get lost in the crowd.
The true advantage of Android for Samsung is it can be customized so Samsung can make Android phones that look nothing like those from Motorola and the other Android licensees. There is no need for a separate OS.
1) Bada is already relatively successful (as this report points out, more successful than WP7). However, I don't see Bada doing well in Europe/North America. What I think will happen is that Samsung will target Bada towards its Asian markets, while targeting western markets with Android. At some point in the future, they will hope that Bada is mature enough that they can sell them in Europe/North America too.
2) Android is not as open as Google would like you to believe. And the problem with Android, for Samsung, is that their phones will ALWAYS be second class citizens to the Moogle version, so there would be little to no reason for someone to buy a Samsung over a Moogle. Is there any other instance where a company has done well selling products based on a competitor's platform? How much differentiation is it possible to provide, in such an instance?
Barely a few days after "Oh, all the Android partners are 100% behind Google taking over Moto to 'strengthen Android for everyone', coz we're free and wonderful and open and Microsoft and Apple are the evil ones'.
Like I said, what sane manager would not want to have alternatives in light of your partner becoming your competitor, even if they cry otherwise.
More likely it would decimate Samsung's market share. I can't see Bada going anywhere. There are already too many smartphone OSes (iOS, Android, QNX, Windows Phone, WebOS). Not all of these will survive. Developers are not going to support them all. Yet another OS is simply going to get lost in the crowd.
The true advantage of Android for Samsung is it can be customized so Samsung can make Android phones that look nothing like those from Motorola and the other Android licensees. There is no need for a separate OS.
Apple would love for Samsung to drop out of the Android coalition and switch to Bada. They would then have to start over on a new ecosystem, app store, etc.
Look at HP's flailing attempts to sell tablets. Look at RIM's failings. Look at Microsoft's market share. All of this fragmentation into different competitive camps is good for Apple.
Samsung would be a very nice acquisition for Apple, no? Of course, it would require stock. Not enough cash on hand to pull that one off.
Not a chance. First, only a tiny portion of what Samsung does is unrelated to anything Apple does or wants to do. Second, even the portion that might be in Apple's domain is a commodity, undifferentiated product - which would not be of interest to Apple.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dazweeja
This is completely unsurprising. Samsung would be crazy not to have a contingency plan.
As far as speculation that Google could potentially sue Samsung for patent infringement - sure, it's possible but how many times has Google sued another company for patent infringement? Never.
I don't think anything much will come of this acquisition in terms of global market share. iOS will hold their roughly 20%, Android will continue to gobble up Symbian and Blackberry and pass 50%, and Samsung will continue to be the top Android manufacturer.
If Samsung realizes that they're in such bad shape, they might end up competing with RIM to buy the Motorola handset business. In fact, it would even be conceivable that Samsung would buy ALL the hardware stuff from Google, although a lot less likely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum
IMO, the best way forward is:
1) Google cancels the MMI deal and pay the $2.5 Billion Alienation of Affections penalty
2) Google sweetens the pot and buys Android and its partners freedom from MMI lawsuits for any existing and pending MMI patents,
3) Google tries to mend fences with Android partners
So, Google is out, say, $4 Billion (over time) and has bought itself and Partners some protection from IP lawsuits
Maybe, the best of a bad deal... Larry is young, inexperienced, and takes a Mulligan
1. Not going to happen. Google is incapable of admitting it made a mistake - especially when it would cost them $2.5 B.
2. Not clear how Google could do that. If Motorola were willing to consider that, they would have done it before. Google's cost would have been whatever Motorola wants for licenses plus $2.5 B plus whatever they sweeten the pot with. It would have been cheaper to have done that in the first place - and Google undoubtedly considered it.
3. The only way for Google to mend fences with Android partners would be to sell the handset division (but keeping the intellectual property) and then offering all Android partners a royalty free license. I suspect strongly that this was the plan all along and that Google is currently negotiating with at least one of the current handset vendors. I would bet on RIM, but wouldn't count Samsung out.
No, no, no. Samsung - there is no way to "strengthen Bada". Is a waste of resources, and a huge one at that. Samsung will never drop android, at least not in the foreseeable future. Even if google makes their own phones on permanent basis with Moto, there is no point of dropping android. Besides, there is absolutely no room left for #3 in this market. WebOS has seen that firsthand, and MS and Nokia will find out shortly. Just like in the PC days of yesterday, you are either an Apple, or you are not an Apple. Linux is an also ran, which is what I expect Bada, WP7, WebOS etc to all be.
1) Bada is already relatively successful (as this report points out, more successful than WP7).
More successful than WP7? Almost everything is more successful than WP7. WP7 sets the benchmark so low it is physically impossible to even trip over it. The only reason Windows smartphone sales look even slightly healthy is all the old WM6.x phones that are still being sold.
WP7 is actually a great example of how hard it now is to launch a new smartphone OS. How much did MS spend on marketing? The odds are truly stacked against Samsung turning Baja into a major challenger to Android and iOS.
Quote:
2) Android is not as open as Google would like you to believe. And the problem with Android, for Samsung, is that their phones will ALWAYS be second class citizens to the Moogle version, so there would be little to no reason for someone to buy a Samsung over a Moogle.
Google makes their money from adverting. They therefore want Android to be as widely distributed as possible. Making Samsung a second class citizen does not help with that goal.
But of course if the worst does happen Samsung could complete diverge from the "official" version as Dick Applebaum mentioned. Continuing to work on Android does not close the door to forking the entire OS. There are a few core apps they need to build like email and they need to set up an AppStore. None of which is that hard and this way they'd have all the existing Apps as well as any new Apps developers write for the platform.
Yes, I understand that. What I was trying to say is that Google could license use of those patents for current Partners for $1.5 Billion over a few years.
MMI would retain ownership and the right to litigate.
If Google walks away from the deal with Motorola, then Motorola pockets $2.5b and still retains the ownership of MMI and their patents and immediately goes back to suing the other Android hardware manufacturers. That's a given.
No, if Google is going to "put up or shut up", they're going to have to give that licensing away. And destroy key parts of that MMI IP they paid $12.5b for in the process. If they try license it to the other Android hardware manufacturers, who of them is going to pay for it? How can Google make them pony up? Sue them? For patent infringement?
Google will have to give away licensing for Android phones and then turn around and try to sue those same partners for any non-Android phones they sell. Then the act of giving away the IP for Android phones becomes anti-competitive behavior in the FTC's eyes.
I think Larry and company have had too much come to easy; they appear to be wholly unprepared for the real world.
But, there may be another alternative -- like Amazon is apparently considering, Sammy could Fork Android, possibly settle (license) with Oracle... then offer its own, Superior Android variant.
Here's a problem with that, who wants to develop for a fork when you can keep developing for regular Android that would still remain the majority of the market on backs of nameless cheap phones and possibly super awesome Nexus - M (for moto).
Unless... ZTE forks android in china and Samsung joins in on that. Then they have a chance of surpassing the official google in terms of users and therefore developers, at least in Asia. And we all know that Asia will rule the next century so that might not be a bad idea.
If Google walks away from the deal with Motorola, then Motorola pockets $2.5b and still retains the ownership of MMI and their patents and immediately goes back to suing the other Android hardware manufacturers. That's a given.
No, if Google is going to "put up or shut up", they're going to have to give that licensing away. And destroy key parts of that MMI IP they paid $12.5b for in the process. If they try license it to the other Android hardware manufacturers, who of them is going to pay for it? How can Google make them pony up? Sue them? For patent infringement?
Google will have to give away licensing for Android phones and then turn around and try to sue those same partners for any non-Android phones they sell. Then the act of giving away the IP for Android phones becomes anti-competitive behavior in the FTC's eyes.
I think Larry and company have had too much come to easy; they appear to be wholly unprepared for the real world.
Yeah... To all of that!
So, if you are Larry -- what would you do (everyone is watching)?
Here's a problem with that, who wants to develop for a fork when you can keep developing for regular Android that would still remain the majority of the market on backs of nameless cheap phones and possibly super awesome Nexus - M (for moto).
A lot more than would want to develop for Bada. If you don't need the latest version of Android your app would happily run on both the forked and official versions of Android. That would enable Samsung to build up a large enough install base to justify developers using platform specific features. It woud also be very cheap to port apps from the official version to the forked version (much cheaper than trying to port to Bada).
Remember Moto used to have it's own 'backup plan' just like the article here suggests for Samsung? What did Moto end up doing?
I'm sorry but Korean companies are simply not innovative enough to do well with building a new OS. It just not going to happen, even though I'm sure OP really hopes Samsung to leave Android. If anything, Samsung would focus more on WP7 (but even that is remote).
So, if you are Larry -- what would you do (everyone is watching)?
I honestly don't know. The hardware side of that business is completely toxic to their partners. But they vastly overpaid for it.
Thinking out loud for a moment...
Maybe Google sells the hardware business -- including cross-licensing for all the patents -- at a massive loss (since the 60% premium over market value is gone and Google would've kept the patent assets). So they are selling a money pit stripped of it's most important assets including potentially even the branding. Who is going to step in an buy that business for anything but its salvage value? Who, besides Apple, is unable to keep up with demand for handset manufacturing capacity? Foxconn? Then you've sold off of one of your major partners for scrap. To build your competitor's products. If you sell it as a going concern, who's to say they can't keep the patent licensing for non-Android or Android-derivative products? Or turn around and sell themselves to HP, HTC, Samsung, etc. who could use it for the same purpose?
Did Google seriously not "war room" all these scenarios when they decided to buy MMI in the first place?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando
There is an alternative. The real world is unprepared for Larry. The Motorola deal is either brilliant or insane. There is no middle ground.
Whatever Larry Page's next move turns out to be, It had better be brilliant.
Gotta' be careful with names... believe me I know,
Reminds me of a ComputerFaire presentation in the early 1980s... At the time, there was no MS Office -- the best WP was a dedicated WP computer called the Wang -- they sold millions.
Anyway, Guy Kawasaki* (then Apple Evangelist) is on this panel discussion on the state of computing (or some such).
When it's Guy's turn to give his preso... he makes a comparison of "a guy with his Apple in one hand and his Wang in the other+,,,
My wife, Lucy, called him Guy Kawabunga-- and the name kinda' stuck within our crowd
I honestly don't know. The hardware side of that business is completely toxic to their partners. But they vastly overpaid for it.
Thinking out loud for a moment...
Maybe Google sells the hardware business -- including cross-licensing for all the patents -- at a massive loss (since the 60% premium over market value is gone and Google would've kept the patent assets). So they are selling a money pit stripped of it's most important assets including potentially even the branding. Who is going to step in an buy that business for anything but its salvage value? Who, besides Apple, is unable to keep up with demand for handset manufacturing capacity? Foxconn? Then you've sold off of one of your major partners for scrap. To build your competitor's products. If you sell it as a going concern, who's to say they can't keep the patent licensing for non-Android or Android-derivative products? Or turn around and sell themselves to HP, HTC, Samsung, etc. who could use it for the same purpose?
Did Google seriously not "war room" all these scenarios when they decided to buy MMI in the first place?
Whatever Larry Page's next move turns out to be, It had better be brilliant.
IMO, that's a good assessment... They're in the big leagues. They can get away with a failure -- if they admit (at least to themselves) that it happened, they learned from it... And they've moved on.
The big problem, as I see it, is that there is no customer for the hardware side of the business... They were were snookered.
sounds to me like a lot of you are assuming a hell of a lot...
I doubt Google is going to make the next Nexus a Nexus M simply because they need to show their other OEMs that they aren't going to push Motorola crazily.
Comments
More likely it would decimate Samsung's market share. I can't see Bada going anywhere. There are already too many smartphone OSes (iOS, Android, QNX, Windows Phone, WebOS). Not all of these will survive. Developers are not going to support them all. Yet another OS is simply going to get lost in the crowd.
The true advantage of Android for Samsung is it can be customized so Samsung can make Android phones that look nothing like those from Motorola and the other Android licensees. There is no need for a separate OS.
1) Bada is already relatively successful (as this report points out, more successful than WP7). However, I don't see Bada doing well in Europe/North America. What I think will happen is that Samsung will target Bada towards its Asian markets, while targeting western markets with Android. At some point in the future, they will hope that Bada is mature enough that they can sell them in Europe/North America too.
2) Android is not as open as Google would like you to believe. And the problem with Android, for Samsung, is that their phones will ALWAYS be second class citizens to the Moogle version, so there would be little to no reason for someone to buy a Samsung over a Moogle. Is there any other instance where a company has done well selling products based on a competitor's platform? How much differentiation is it possible to provide, in such an instance?
Barely a few days after "Oh, all the Android partners are 100% behind Google taking over Moto to 'strengthen Android for everyone', coz we're free and wonderful and open and Microsoft and Apple are the evil ones'.
Like I said, what sane manager would not want to have alternatives in light of your partner becoming your competitor, even if they cry otherwise.
More likely it would decimate Samsung's market share. I can't see Bada going anywhere. There are already too many smartphone OSes (iOS, Android, QNX, Windows Phone, WebOS). Not all of these will survive. Developers are not going to support them all. Yet another OS is simply going to get lost in the crowd.
The true advantage of Android for Samsung is it can be customized so Samsung can make Android phones that look nothing like those from Motorola and the other Android licensees. There is no need for a separate OS.
Apple would love for Samsung to drop out of the Android coalition and switch to Bada. They would then have to start over on a new ecosystem, app store, etc.
Look at HP's flailing attempts to sell tablets. Look at RIM's failings. Look at Microsoft's market share. All of this fragmentation into different competitive camps is good for Apple.
Next move is a search engine from Samsung called "Boom" to go with Bada ... As and alternative to Bing.
Did they register 'smartphoens' as a trade name?
\t*\tAppleInsider > iPhone
Samsung seeks to strengthen, differentiate Bada smartphoens in wake of Google's Motorola deal
Smartphoens like the Apple iPhoen are available at the Apple Stoer. Say it with me five times real fast.
Samsung would be a very nice acquisition for Apple, no? Of course, it would require stock. Not enough cash on hand to pull that one off.
Not a chance. First, only a tiny portion of what Samsung does is unrelated to anything Apple does or wants to do. Second, even the portion that might be in Apple's domain is a commodity, undifferentiated product - which would not be of interest to Apple.
This is completely unsurprising. Samsung would be crazy not to have a contingency plan.
As far as speculation that Google could potentially sue Samsung for patent infringement - sure, it's possible but how many times has Google sued another company for patent infringement? Never.
I don't think anything much will come of this acquisition in terms of global market share. iOS will hold their roughly 20%, Android will continue to gobble up Symbian and Blackberry and pass 50%, and Samsung will continue to be the top Android manufacturer.
If Samsung realizes that they're in such bad shape, they might end up competing with RIM to buy the Motorola handset business. In fact, it would even be conceivable that Samsung would buy ALL the hardware stuff from Google, although a lot less likely.
IMO, the best way forward is:
1) Google cancels the MMI deal and pay the $2.5 Billion Alienation of Affections penalty
2) Google sweetens the pot and buys Android and its partners freedom from MMI lawsuits for any existing and pending MMI patents,
3) Google tries to mend fences with Android partners
So, Google is out, say, $4 Billion (over time) and has bought itself and Partners some protection from IP lawsuits
Maybe, the best of a bad deal... Larry is young, inexperienced, and takes a Mulligan
1. Not going to happen. Google is incapable of admitting it made a mistake - especially when it would cost them $2.5 B.
2. Not clear how Google could do that. If Motorola were willing to consider that, they would have done it before. Google's cost would have been whatever Motorola wants for licenses plus $2.5 B plus whatever they sweeten the pot with. It would have been cheaper to have done that in the first place - and Google undoubtedly considered it.
3. The only way for Google to mend fences with Android partners would be to sell the handset division (but keeping the intellectual property) and then offering all Android partners a royalty free license. I suspect strongly that this was the plan all along and that Google is currently negotiating with at least one of the current handset vendors. I would bet on RIM, but wouldn't count Samsung out.
1) Bada is already relatively successful (as this report points out, more successful than WP7).
More successful than WP7? Almost everything is more successful than WP7. WP7 sets the benchmark so low it is physically impossible to even trip over it. The only reason Windows smartphone sales look even slightly healthy is all the old WM6.x phones that are still being sold.
WP7 is actually a great example of how hard it now is to launch a new smartphone OS. How much did MS spend on marketing? The odds are truly stacked against Samsung turning Baja into a major challenger to Android and iOS.
2) Android is not as open as Google would like you to believe. And the problem with Android, for Samsung, is that their phones will ALWAYS be second class citizens to the Moogle version, so there would be little to no reason for someone to buy a Samsung over a Moogle.
Google makes their money from adverting. They therefore want Android to be as widely distributed as possible. Making Samsung a second class citizen does not help with that goal.
But of course if the worst does happen Samsung could complete diverge from the "official" version as Dick Applebaum mentioned. Continuing to work on Android does not close the door to forking the entire OS. There are a few core apps they need to build like email and they need to set up an AppStore. None of which is that hard and this way they'd have all the existing Apps as well as any new Apps developers write for the platform.
Yes, I understand that. What I was trying to say is that Google could license use of those patents for current Partners for $1.5 Billion over a few years.
MMI would retain ownership and the right to litigate.
If Google walks away from the deal with Motorola, then Motorola pockets $2.5b and still retains the ownership of MMI and their patents and immediately goes back to suing the other Android hardware manufacturers. That's a given.
No, if Google is going to "put up or shut up", they're going to have to give that licensing away. And destroy key parts of that MMI IP they paid $12.5b for in the process. If they try license it to the other Android hardware manufacturers, who of them is going to pay for it? How can Google make them pony up? Sue them? For patent infringement?
Google will have to give away licensing for Android phones and then turn around and try to sue those same partners for any non-Android phones they sell. Then the act of giving away the IP for Android phones becomes anti-competitive behavior in the FTC's eyes.
I think Larry and company have had too much come to easy; they appear to be wholly unprepared for the real world.
You make some good points!
But, there may be another alternative -- like Amazon is apparently considering, Sammy could Fork Android, possibly settle (license) with Oracle... then offer its own, Superior Android variant.
Here's a problem with that, who wants to develop for a fork when you can keep developing for regular Android that would still remain the majority of the market on backs of nameless cheap phones and possibly super awesome Nexus - M (for moto).
Unless... ZTE forks android in china and Samsung joins in on that. Then they have a chance of surpassing the official google in terms of users and therefore developers, at least in Asia. And we all know that Asia will rule the next century so that might not be a bad idea.
If Google walks away from the deal with Motorola, then Motorola pockets $2.5b and still retains the ownership of MMI and their patents and immediately goes back to suing the other Android hardware manufacturers. That's a given.
No, if Google is going to "put up or shut up", they're going to have to give that licensing away. And destroy key parts of that MMI IP they paid $12.5b for in the process. If they try license it to the other Android hardware manufacturers, who of them is going to pay for it? How can Google make them pony up? Sue them? For patent infringement?
Google will have to give away licensing for Android phones and then turn around and try to sue those same partners for any non-Android phones they sell. Then the act of giving away the IP for Android phones becomes anti-competitive behavior in the FTC's eyes.
I think Larry and company have had too much come to easy; they appear to be wholly unprepared for the real world.
Yeah... To all of that!
So, if you are Larry -- what would you do (everyone is watching)?
Here's a problem with that, who wants to develop for a fork when you can keep developing for regular Android that would still remain the majority of the market on backs of nameless cheap phones and possibly super awesome Nexus - M (for moto).
A lot more than would want to develop for Bada. If you don't need the latest version of Android your app would happily run on both the forked and official versions of Android. That would enable Samsung to build up a large enough install base to justify developers using platform specific features. It woud also be very cheap to port apps from the official version to the forked version (much cheaper than trying to port to Bada).
I think Larry and company have had too much come to easy; they appear to be wholly unprepared for the real world.
There is an alternative. The real world is unprepared for Larry. The Motorola deal is either brilliant or insane. There is no middle ground.
I'm sorry but Korean companies are simply not innovative enough to do well with building a new OS. It just not going to happen, even though I'm sure OP really hopes Samsung to leave Android. If anything, Samsung would focus more on WP7 (but even that is remote).
Yeah... To all of that!
So, if you are Larry -- what would you do (everyone is watching)?
I honestly don't know. The hardware side of that business is completely toxic to their partners. But they vastly overpaid for it.
Thinking out loud for a moment...
Maybe Google sells the hardware business -- including cross-licensing for all the patents -- at a massive loss (since the 60% premium over market value is gone and Google would've kept the patent assets). So they are selling a money pit stripped of it's most important assets including potentially even the branding. Who is going to step in an buy that business for anything but its salvage value? Who, besides Apple, is unable to keep up with demand for handset manufacturing capacity? Foxconn? Then you've sold off of one of your major partners for scrap. To build your competitor's products. If you sell it as a going concern, who's to say they can't keep the patent licensing for non-Android or Android-derivative products? Or turn around and sell themselves to HP, HTC, Samsung, etc. who could use it for the same purpose?
Did Google seriously not "war room" all these scenarios when they decided to buy MMI in the first place?
There is an alternative. The real world is unprepared for Larry. The Motorola deal is either brilliant or insane. There is no middle ground.
Whatever Larry Page's next move turns out to be, It had better be brilliant.
Gotta' be careful with names... believe me I know,
Reminds me of a ComputerFaire presentation in the early 1980s... At the time, there was no MS Office -- the best WP was a dedicated WP computer called the Wang -- they sold millions.
Anyway, Guy Kawasaki* (then Apple Evangelist) is on this panel discussion on the state of computing (or some such).
When it's Guy's turn to give his preso... he makes a comparison of "a guy with his Apple in one hand and his Wang in the other+,,,
My wife, Lucy, called him Guy Kawabunga-- and the name kinda' stuck within our crowd
Daimler Benz buys Chrysler, BMW buys Rover, and AOL buys Time Warner.
I honestly don't know. The hardware side of that business is completely toxic to their partners. But they vastly overpaid for it.
Thinking out loud for a moment...
Maybe Google sells the hardware business -- including cross-licensing for all the patents -- at a massive loss (since the 60% premium over market value is gone and Google would've kept the patent assets). So they are selling a money pit stripped of it's most important assets including potentially even the branding. Who is going to step in an buy that business for anything but its salvage value? Who, besides Apple, is unable to keep up with demand for handset manufacturing capacity? Foxconn? Then you've sold off of one of your major partners for scrap. To build your competitor's products. If you sell it as a going concern, who's to say they can't keep the patent licensing for non-Android or Android-derivative products? Or turn around and sell themselves to HP, HTC, Samsung, etc. who could use it for the same purpose?
Did Google seriously not "war room" all these scenarios when they decided to buy MMI in the first place?
Whatever Larry Page's next move turns out to be, It had better be brilliant.
IMO, that's a good assessment... They're in the big leagues. They can get away with a failure -- if they admit (at least to themselves) that it happened, they learned from it... And they've moved on.
The big problem, as I see it, is that there is no customer for the hardware side of the business... They were were snookered.
My daughter just read about the perfect name for a new book:
Allyson Wonderland.
After reflection we came up with:
Trudi Lookingglass.
... What's next?
I doubt Google is going to make the next Nexus a Nexus M simply because they need to show their other OEMs that they aren't going to push Motorola crazily.