With new iPad & Macs coming, $500 milestone seen as just the start for Apple stock

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 51
    AAPL still trading at roughly 12 times earnings.



    STILL a bargain.
  • Reply 22 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    8GB on a tablet is worthless.



    Yup, that's what Amazon includes in the Fire. How can that not hurt their content-centric business model? Christ, you can't even include two HD movies on the thing
  • Reply 23 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    Indeed it is. Do these people not realize that the OS takes up a bit of space too?



    as useless as an AppleTV? It has basically the same hardware and 8GB RAM....
  • Reply 24 of 51
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by webfrasse View Post


    as useless as an AppleTV? It has basically the same hardware and 8GB RAM....



    The difference is the AppleTV only streams. That 8GB flash, not RAM, is for the OS and some basic caching. That's plenty of room.



    Hell, people complained about the original AppleTV with 40GB of storage not being enough for music and/or videos. That's 5x more than the Kindle Fire and the original AppleTV was likely still connected to a LAN with a PC/Mac with iTunes it could stream more content from.
  • Reply 25 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    I have a simple question for anybody who knows about stocks and is reading this.



    I see that some analysts are talking about a target price of $630. My question is, what time frame is that based on? Do they mean in 12 months from now?



    With Apple, trying to time it right now is a bit like 'waiting' to buy a computer for the newest release. Unless you KNOW a new model is coming out within a month, you should just get what you need and not worry about it. So if you have money to invest, invest it already! You may be able to get it tomorrow around noon at 503, but it just closed tonite at 509.37. Something is clearly going on behind the scenes. Normally it seems to go up a few and then fall back, except during times of great expansion, which would be now. I think the stockholders meeting will be pivotal. Either you guess Apple won't do any dividend and the stock falls 15, or they do a dividend and maybe a split and rise to 525! You get to guess. The p/e is still rediculousy low, so even if you buy and it falls a bit for a whole stinkin year, it will bust out of the doldrums and pop another hundred or two! It's all good. I can't think of a safer place for your money, provided you don't have to pay it out somewhere on X date six months from now.



    As the article states, there's at least six huge reasons for the stock to do well.



    I think by the end of the year Apple will be testing 1k. I've mostly been too conservative in my predictions.
  • Reply 26 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    Indeed it is. Do these people not realize that the OS takes up a bit of space too?



    Yes, these people do realize that. And yet, the iPhone, which uses the same OS and many of the same apps is sold in an 8gb variation. That despite the fact that iPhone users are more likely to want to have their music collections, etc. on the device. For many use cases, more storage isn't useful. I know some companies that are issuing iPads to access online resources, hardly any local storage is needed. Obviously more storage is better for most of us, but for the entry level device, as stripped as Apple is willing to strip it to cut costs (which is not much), an 8gb iPad will be great.
  • Reply 27 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post


    Yup, that's what Amazon includes in the Fire. How can that not hurt their content-centric business model? Christ, you can't even include two HD movies on the thing



    Amazon expects you to stream the content, not store it on the device. It doesn't help that it's Wifi only, but they probably expect people to use these things more on the couch, toilet, and at Star$. As a web browser, reader, etc., the storage on a Kindle Fire is about adequate. If you want more, spend more. (I did.)
  • Reply 28 of 51
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by williamh View Post


    Amazon expects you to stream the content, not store it on the device. It doesn't help that it's Wifi only, but they probably expect people to use these things more on the couch, toilet, and at Star$. As a web browser, reader, etc., the storage on a Kindle Fire is about adequate. If you want more, spend more. (I did.)



    On a portable device you do expect a certain level of internal storage because you aren't always going to be on a network, and many times if you are it's a slow one.



    I do see your point. Amazon made the Kindle Fire not as a competitor to the iPad but as a way to growing their eReader business into the tablet space. They probably expect it to be mostly apps and books that are local and any music of movies to be almost exclusively streamed, at least in this first iteration. Can you even DL Amazon Prime content directly to the device?



    PS: Tallest Skil pointed out that Apple's iBookstore textbooks are very large. An 8GB iPad would simply not do for a year of textbooks for the average student. Even 16GB is cutting it close. If Amazon does try to make a move for this market I think they'll need both a larger display and higher capacity tablet. This will add cost even if the build quality and component features are kept where they are.
  • Reply 29 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    I was a fool! I had a little bit extra money to invest recently and I was thinking about picking up some AAPL when it was just over $450 a short while ago. I didn't bite, and now it's over $500 and it just seems to keep rising!



    Anyhow, for my own purely selfish reasons, I hope that the stock goes down a little, and then I'll make my move. Come on China, ban the iPad! That'll send the stock down for a little bit.



    Not sure if you will see $450 again, but one easy strategy is to sell puts at-the-money for a month out to lower your acquisition cost if it goes through, or pocket the premium if it doesn't. That would get you down around $485-490 per share. If you are a True Believer," just buy 4 March $400 calls at $110 each (same cost as a lot at $450 per share). If the stock is up $25 at expiration, sell three contracts and execute the fourth contract, and you have made your $450 acquisition price.



    Of course, you need $50k to work with either strategy, and if we hit a blip in the market you could get wiped out...
  • Reply 30 of 51
    shaun, ukshaun, uk Posts: 1,050member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    In addition to releasing a new third-generation iPad, Reitzes believes that Apple will continue to sell the current-generation iPad 2. He sees the entry-level 16GB model remaining available for sale at a reduced price, giving Apple more traction on the lower end of the market.



    Why would they do that? Wouldn't that simply take sales away from the iPad 3, especially given that by all accounts the iPad 3 is going to look identical to the iPad 2. Surely it makes more sense to release a smaller, cheaper version to accommodate that market space. Clearly there is a market for a smaller device.
  • Reply 31 of 51
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    This thread and some of the comments have given me a few things to think about. Thanks to those who replied!
  • Reply 32 of 51
    The sixth and final potential catalyst laid out by Reitzes was a hypothetical "return cash to shareholders" policy, which he believes would be a strong use of the nearly $100 billion in cash and investments being held by Apple. He noted that with that much cash, Apple is "running out of realistic excuses for hoarding so much," and he believes that investors are already beginning to price into AAPL stock the expectation of a dividend as soon as the upcoming shareholders' meeting on Feb. 23.



    "We continue to believe Apple has the ability to easily pay a dividend with a significant yield (2-3% range) along with the ability to grow it over time," he said. "Furthermore, we believe consistent buybacks would be a better option than an accelerated buyback or a special dividend.



    "We believe that Apple has recently sounded much more open in its propensity to offer a dividend and its Board likely realizes its potential value. We believe a dividend could be instated by calendar year end."









    That all sounds good, hopefully the Board of Directors will take action.
  • Reply 33 of 51
    $500 just the startingblock for AAPL?



    I don't doubt it for a second.



    Makes me wish I got in earlier ....



    Oh, well -- an opportunity lost is an opportunity --



    Whatever ....
  • Reply 34 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BoxMacCary View Post


    $500 just the startingblock for AAPL?



    I don't doubt it for a second.



    Makes me wish I got in earlier ....



    Oh, well -- an opportunity lost is an opportunity --



    Whatever ....



    How much do you believe?



    For all we know we could be sitting in the same place as we were at the beginning of 2009.



    on edit [A little tidbit from Bloomberg:



    Kenneth Heebner, who ran one of the top-performing U.S. stock mutual funds during the past decade, bought shares of Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC), while selling Apple Inc. (AAPL) in the fourth quarter.



    Capital Growth Management LP purchased 1.73 million shares of Philip Morris, the world’s largest publicly traded tobacco manufacturer, during the three-month period that ended Dec. 31, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission today. The Boston-based money manager bought 22.1 million shares of Bank of America, the second-largest U.S. bank by assets. The firm sold all 406,000 shares of Apple Inc., the world’s largest technology company, during the fourth quarter.



    Heebner’s CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX) has beaten 99 percent of peers in 2012. The fund returned 16 percent annually in the decade ended in January 2011 for the best record among more than 3,500 diversified U.S. stock funds, according to data compiled by Morningstar Inc. It then lost 15 percent in the past year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. His performance has stalled in the past five years, trailing 92 percent of peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.



    Philip Morris of New York has since risen to the highest level since its spinoff from Altria Group Inc., climbing to $81.61 a share yesterday. Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America has surged 43 percent in 2012, the fifth-biggest gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, after posting the fourth- largest loss last year and falling to an almost three-year low in December. Apple surged to a record $502.60 yesterday and is set to have its best quarter since 2009.
    ]



    It looks like Heebner could have kept his AAPL and got much much better than 16% in the first 45 days of 2012.
  • Reply 35 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    It looks like Heebner could have kept his AAPL and got much much better than 16% in the first 45 days of 2012.



    I was going to make a smug comment when I saw that article, but he actually did pretty good with BAC. Doubt it will prove to be a better investment, just saying he made 43% YTD on BAC and AAPL is just up 26%.
  • Reply 36 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


    I was going to make a smug comment when I saw that article, but he actually did pretty good with BAC. Doubt it will prove to be a better investment, just saying he made 43% YTD on BAC and AAPL is just up 26%.



    I noticed that. I guess the difference is that BAC headed to a low point a the end of 2011 whereas AAPL had already gone up 10% from its low point in November. I guess it all depends when he bought BAC and when he sold AAPL.
  • Reply 37 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Woodlink View Post


    AAPL still trading at roughly 12 times earnings.



    STILL a bargain.



    Woodlink, Apple is on forward PE of just 10.77*.



    What makes Apple even more ridiculously cheap is that this forward PE is based on consensus earning growth next year of just 11%.** This implies a sudden, unexplained decline in EPS growth rate.



    In fact Apple's earnings next year are likely to grow at least 3 or 4 times faster than the consensus 11%, which makes Apple shares incredibly good value.



    * See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL



    ** See Yahoo Analysts Estimates (Thompson/First Call)



    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=AAPL+Analyst+Estimates
  • Reply 38 of 51
    freerangefreerange Posts: 1,594member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by webfrasse View Post


    as useless as an AppleTV? It has basically the same hardware and 8GB RAM....



    Simply not the same thing. ATV is a streaming device that stores no content except the OS, library info and cache for streaming current content playing. The iPad is totally different as it needs to also store content to be truly useful - apps, docs, photos, movies, music, etc. - as streaming is never going to be "always on" or ubiquitous with the majority of users of such a portable device.
  • Reply 39 of 51
    AAPL is so overbought... I expect a story to hit the streets any second now stating that Apple sold 1 less iPhone than was expected in the last 45 days... an the stock will lose $50 in the first hour.
  • Reply 40 of 51
    paul94544paul94544 Posts: 1,027member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    AAPL is so overbought... I expect a story to hit the streets any second now stating that Apple sold 1 less iPhone than was expected in the last 45 days... an the stock will lose $50 in the first hour.



    I sold my entire apple stake at $505 on Tuesday. If ever there was ever a sell signal the recent up tick is a classic example of one. Admittedly I didn't sell at the $525 top, but its really hard to figure out a top. Now look at it trading under 500 and all those fools who bought on $500+ hysteria on Wednesday are now looking at losses. I bought my stake at $364. I hope to try get back in at around 470-480 soon. I may even wait until after the iPad3 announcemnt or dollar cost average it for a few months. So far my portfolio is up 10% this year. I don't want to be too greedy and make mistakes. This cyclical bear market is tough one to time. my strategy is to jump in and out and not expose my self too much to the inevitable down periods that occur in a cyclical bear. Any time an analyst starts suggesting you can't afford not to be in the market is time to go to the sidelines. The competition in the TV and tablet market is only going to increase. I don't buy in to this idea that Apple is a complete lock. I'm an apple fan but not stupid like some.
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