Einhorn successfully blocks Apple proxy vote in bid for preferred stock [u]

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  • Reply 21 of 119
    robmrobm Posts: 1,068member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


     


    No, his ultimate goal is his preferred shares. Never doubt that. The man's job is to make money.


     


    hes doing this to back the bundle so that those that don't like one of the other two components don't say no to block those end ruin phase two which would be for him to convince the shareholders to issue preferreds



    Agree - its a disguised flat out challenge to the board that they are acting not in the shareholders best interests by pursuing their current investment strategy.


    He, of course, knows better how to run Apples business.

  • Reply 22 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by applesupertramp View Post




    The simple math behind David Einhorn's proposal:


     


    First, what follows bellow does not in any way alter the intrinsic value of Apple. 1+1 does not equal something more than two. Einhorn's proposal simply forces the market to recognize the true value of Apple, Inc. 


     


    I'm going to add one twist to the Einhorn proposal and in doing so it will make his proposal easier to understand without altering the true nature of his proposal in any material way.  Einhorn's original proposal without alteration is the more practical way, and again, I alter it solely in aiding its understanding. 


     


    The twist:  Einhorn proposes that Apple issue preferred stock to existing common holders with a stated yield of say, 4% of par value. But, let's alter one aspect of that, instead of issuing the preferreds to common stock holders, let us have Apple issue them directly to the market. Par value will be 460 per share (same as common value when Einhorn's proposal was made public) and we will assume an equal number of preferred shares as the common shares. That is to say, the proceeds from the preferred issuance will equal the market cap of Apple or $430 billion (again, roughly at the time Einhorn's proposal was made public). 


     


    The Proposal:  Apple issues $430 billion worth of preferred stock with a 4% yield and par value of 460 dollars per share. After issuance, Apple will have an additional $430 billion in cash which it will immediately pay out as a one time dividend to the common stock holders. That is, if you purchase one share of common today for 460 dollars, Apple will return to you 460 dollars of dividend tomorrow. Got that?


     


    Now, where do we stand?  You just received 460 dollars cash dividend for each share of common that you own. You still own the share, same as before, but now, Apple is obligated to pay from earnings to the preferred stock holders 17.2 billion dollars per year (that's 4% of the 430 billion dollars worth of preferreds).


     


    If Apple's free cash flow is $32 billion per year (that's my number but feel free to use your own or to use GAAP annual earnings if you must), then after paying preferred dividends of 17 billion dollars, Apple will have 15 billion dollars in cash earnings per year left over for the common stock holder (32 billion - 17 billion = 15 billion).


     


    That's 15 billion dollars in free cash flow. If we apply to that a more than reasonable P/E multiple of say 10 times, we produce a present value of 150 billion dollars (15 billion * 10). In addition to that, Apple still has 137 billion dollars in cash on its balance sheet and in the bank so to speak. To figure out what our common shares are worth, we need to add the 137 billion in cash to the 150 billion of present value from above. Both together equals 287 billion dollars in remaining value for Apple's common stock holders. If we have about 935 million shares, then the price per share for common after Einhorn's proposal is approximately 300 dollars per share. Got that?  


     


    To sum up the common stock, you received 460 dollars per share of cash dividend and in return were left with common stock worth approximately 300 dollars per share for a grand total of 760 dollars per share. 


     


    But surely there must be some chicanery here?  No, not really. Like I said above, Einhorn's proposal merely forces the market to recognize Apple's true value. 1+1 still equals 2. 


     


    Oh, BTW, there is one thing to further consider, but neither Einhorn nor I will tell you what that is, and it is the main reason why his proposal was structured the way he structured it. 


     


    My suggestion:  buy Apple stock. Hope Apple does what Einhorn suggest, but understand the value will not change materially either way. Einhorn's plan just forces the issue faster, and again, that one other thing...  



    Put another way, this "forces" the market to "see" the value of Apple's cash. Interestingly, however, it fails to force the market to see the value of AAPL common, which should be showing a P/E far, far higher than the miserable 10 it presently shows. If Apple had a P/E of 20 (compared, say, to Google's P/E of 24), it would be worth $900/share, or considerably more than the $460+$300/share you've calculated it to be.


     


    Also interestingly, the possibility of Apple being valued at a P/E of 20 is considerably decreased by issuing more shares.


     


    From my point of view, this is all about smart, impatient people trying to take advantage of a larger than normal correction in AAPL which is the simple result of a larger than normal bump in AAPL value (to $705/share) earlier last year. I have nothing per se against this plan, but I'd prefer to wait a year or two and see if the P/E levels out all on its own.

  • Reply 23 of 119
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    @applesupertramp:

    Your whole argument depends on the market assigning a P/E to the shriveled AAPL common of 10.
    The market has been consistently irrational in valuing AAPL for a long time. Why do you think that will change now?
  • Reply 24 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    I'm not going to offer an opinion on this, as quite frankly, I will freely admit that I am clueless about it, and I don't possess the necessary knowledge in order to have an informed opinion at the moment. 


     


    I just want to see AAPL getting back on it's path to $1,000.





    Ach, don't be so modest. "I am clueless about that." You are wasting words. It should read "I am clueless" .... and then they will hear the applause in Shanghai !

  • Reply 25 of 119
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    applegreen wrote: »
    Einhorn won his lawsuit. Fine. But, is he getting his iPrefs? No way.

    What is going to happen is that Apple will:

    a) increase dividend, or
    b) increase share buyback, or
    c) a combination of both.

    I am betting that they will do a combination of both.  Increasing dividend will provide some support to the stock as yield will increase.  They can announce a big additional share buyback, but they can take their time repurchasing shares.  It gives them flexibility.

    And, the biggest benefit of all: people like Einhorn and the Wall Street analysts can just shut up!!

    Another possibility is that the Apple board will take some kind of preemptive "poison pill" action to deter future douchebags.
    It seems likely to me that this proposal of Einhorn's is a prelude to him trying to get membership on the board.
  • Reply 26 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    I'm not going to offer an opinion on this, as quite frankly, I will freely admit that I am clueless about it, and I don't possess the necessary knowledge in order to have an informed opinion at the moment. 


     


    I just want to see AAPL getting back on it's path to $1,000.



    As a few others have pointed out, there's nothing terribly complicated here. Apple will simply unbundle it and present it to shareholders as a separate proposal. It does not mean he's getting his iPrefs. It is, indeed, a silly sideshow.


     


    Also, Apple will likely do a big share repurchase, which will be much better, putting it back on its path to $1000...... assuming a requisite dose of patience on the part of some jittery investors.....image

  • Reply 27 of 119
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Taniwha View Post




    Ach, don't be so modest. "I am clueless about that." You are wasting words. It should read "I am clueless" .... and then they will hear the applause in Shanghai !



    I am always honest, and finance is not exactly my field, even though I do dabble in stocks here and there.


     


    Now, if the subject was about Fandroids or about how much Android sucks, then I consider myself to be highly qualified, and I have no problems with sharing those sorts of opinions.

  • Reply 28 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by applesupertramp View Post




    .....


     


    My suggestion:  buy Apple stock. Hope Apple does what Einhorn suggest, but understand the value will not change materially either way. Einhorn's plan just forces the issue faster, and again, that one other thing...  



     


    Hi Einhorn (I'd assume you're Einhorn since that's the only reason you won't tell us the 'one other thing'),


     


    Let's stop trying to be childish and create posts that really doesn't help anybody. Nobody here is going to take your lengthy explanation seriously, because, quite frankly, you have no say. Even if Apple's proposal get voted down, nothing will happen. What are you gonna do afterwards? Nothing except doing more interviews/calls etc to promote yourself.


     


    That's right, if you ask me what's the 'secret reason' why you're doing this, it'd be self-promotion.

  • Reply 29 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleGreen View Post


    Einhorn won his lawsuit. Fine. But, is he getting his iPrefs? No way.



     


    No he hasn't. He won a hearing and an injunction until that hearing. But the judgement hasn't been made. It might not go in his favor in the end. 


     


    And even if he won, nothing in the suit would result in dividends or buyback. Hell it wouldn't even result in preferred shares since the issue was who has the power to control them. A win would leave it in the hands of the Board and they could drop issuing preferreds

  • Reply 30 of 119
    Yup,

    I was about to ask if anyone here ever really has any clue?
    At least I know I'm clueless this time and don't need to act it all out.

  • Reply 31 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by macxpress View Post



    This may sound stupid, but sometimes I wish Apple could just buy back all of its stock and go private. Then it could focus on Apple being Apple and not having to worry about all of these stupid things like this.


    That is not a remotely realistic proposal, given Apple's size.


     


    Also, many shareholders will vehemently oppose it legally, since the long-run upside potential is huge, and people want a piece of it. Taking it private will deny them -- people like me -- that opportunity, and it will be fought, believe me. (Look at what's happening with a company with low growth potential, like Dell -- large shareholders are already fighting the move).


     


    The only ones wanting those sorts of outcome are people whose investing horizons are no longer than the lifespan of a gnat.

  • Reply 32 of 119
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post




     


    No, his ultimate goal is his preferred shares. Never doubt that. The man's job is to make money.


     



    Why does he want preferred stock? Does he think Apple is going to default on dividend payments or go bankrupt?

  • Reply 33 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by applesupertramp View Post




    The simple math behind David Einhorn's proposal:


     


    First, what follows bellow does not in any way alter the intrinsic value of Apple. 1+1 does not equal something more than two. Einhorn's proposal simply forces the market to recognize the true value of Apple, Inc. 


     


    I'm going to add one twist to the Einhorn proposal and in doing so it will make his proposal easier to understand without altering the true nature of his proposal in any material way.  Einhorn's original proposal without alteration is the more practical way, and again, I alter it solely in aiding its understanding. 


     


    The twist:  Einhorn proposes that Apple issue preferred stock to existing common holders with a stated yield of say, 4% of par value. But, let's alter one aspect of that, instead of issuing the preferreds to common stock holders, let us have Apple issue them directly to the market. Par value will be 460 per share (same as common value when Einhorn's proposal was made public) and we will assume an equal number of preferred shares as the common shares. That is to say, the proceeds from the preferred issuance will equal the market cap of Apple or $430 billion (again, roughly at the time Einhorn's proposal was made public). 


     


    The Proposal:  Apple issues $430 billion worth of preferred stock with a 4% yield and par value of 460 dollars per share. After issuance, Apple will have an additional $430 billion in cash which it will immediately pay out as a one time dividend to the common stock holders. That is, if you purchase one share of common today for 460 dollars, Apple will return to you 460 dollars of dividend tomorrow. Got that?


     


    Now, where do we stand?  You just received 460 dollars cash dividend for each share of common that you own. You still own the share, same as before, but now, Apple is obligated to pay from earnings to the preferred stock holders 17.2 billion dollars per year (that's 4% of the 430 billion dollars worth of preferreds).


     


    If Apple's free cash flow is $32 billion per year (that's my number but feel free to use your own or to use GAAP annual earnings if you must), then after paying preferred dividends of 17 billion dollars, Apple will have 15 billion dollars in cash earnings per year left over for the common stock holder (32 billion - 17 billion = 15 billion).


     


    That's 15 billion dollars in free cash flow. If we apply to that a more than reasonable P/E multiple of say 10 times, we produce a present value of 150 billion dollars (15 billion * 10). In addition to that, Apple still has 137 billion dollars in cash on its balance sheet and in the bank so to speak. To figure out what our common shares are worth, we need to add the 137 billion in cash to the 150 billion of present value from above. Both together equals 287 billion dollars in remaining value for Apple's common stock holders. If we have about 935 million shares, then the price per share for common after Einhorn's proposal is approximately 300 dollars per share. Got that?  


     


    To sum up the common stock, you received 460 dollars per share of cash dividend and in return were left with common stock worth approximately 300 dollars per share for a grand total of 760 dollars per share. 


     


    But surely there must be some chicanery here?  No, not really. Like I said above, Einhorn's proposal merely forces the market to recognize Apple's true value. 1+1 still equals 2. 


     


    Oh, BTW, there is one thing to further consider, but neither Einhorn nor I will tell you what that is, and it is the main reason why his proposal was structured the way he structured it. 


     


    My suggestion:  buy Apple stock. Hope Apple does what Einhorn suggest, but understand the value will not change materially either way. Einhorn's plan just forces the issue faster, and again, that one other thing...  



    What an utterly clueless post.


     


    If this kind of financial alchemy could so easily create value, what makes you think that hundreds of companies wouldn't have done this long ago?


     


    Value creation from Apple's core business, and the belief that market values will converge to intrinsic value, in a sensible market with a reasonable horizon, is the sole reason to hold the stock. All else is financial engineering b-s.

  • Reply 34 of 119
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    .....
     
    My suggestion:  buy Apple stock. Hope Apple does what Einhorn suggest, but understand the value will not change materially either way. Einhorn's plan just forces the issue faster, and again, that one other thing...  

    Hi Einhorn (I'd assume you're Einhorn since that's the only reason you won't tell us the 'one other thing'),

    Let's stop trying to be childish and create posts that really doesn't help anybody. Nobody here is going to take your lengthy explanation seriously, because, quite frankly, you have no say. Even if Apple's proposal get voted down, nothing will happen. What are you gonna do afterwards? Nothing except doing more interviews/calls etc to promote yourself.

    That's right, if you ask me what's the 'secret reason' why you're doing this, it'd be self-promotion.

    I don't think it is Einhorn. In his proposal, he estimated the combined value of the two classes of shares would be $600, while applesupertramp is more grandiose at $760.
  • Reply 35 of 119
    macxpressmacxpress Posts: 5,810member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    That is not a remotely realistic proposal, given Apple's size.


     


    Also, many shareholders will vehemently oppose it legally, since the long-run upside potential is huge, and people want a piece of it. Taking it private will deny them -- people like me -- that opportunity, and it will be fought, believe me. (Look at what's happening with a company with low growth potential, like Dell -- large shareholders are already fighting the move).


     


    The only ones wanting those sorts of outcome are people whose investing horizons are no longer than the lifespan of a gnat.



     


    Yes, I know...but one could always wish!

  • Reply 36 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    I'm not going to offer an opinion on this, as quite frankly, I will freely admit that I am clueless about it, and I don't possess the necessary knowledge in order to have an informed opinion at the moment. 



     


    I Wish more people would act like that on this board !


     


    Quote:


    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    I just want to see AAPL getting back on it's path to $1,000.



    Same. Though I'm expecting this misery to last a couple more quarters (With a couple of dummy runs in between for product announcements etc).

  • Reply 37 of 119
    who is more important the customer or the shareholder? i will always vote with the board if the company is run like apple.
  • Reply 38 of 119

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Taniwha View Post




    Ach, don't be so modest. "I am clueless about that." You are wasting words. It should read "I am clueless" .... and then they will hear the applause in Shanghai !





    How meaningless your life must be to be tempted to write such rubbish.

  • Reply 39 of 119
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    mstone wrote: »
    charlituna wrote: »
     
    No, his ultimate goal is his preferred shares. Never doubt that. The man's job is to make money.
    Why does he want preferred stock? Does he think Apple is going to default on dividend payments or go bankrupt?

    He may not even want it. He might be satisfied if his actions result in a bump in AAPL so he can dump it with a gain.
  • Reply 40 of 119
    I don't care that Apple wants to make a dent in the universe. I just want to squeeze all I can out of the overripe AAPL before they remove Tim Cook. /s
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