Earnings preview: Apple expected to report record iPad sales, first shrinking profit in a decade

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 51
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,757member
    "Apple only cares about profit!! They don't care about consumers! OMG look at how much money they're making!"

    Apple reports lower profit.

    "AHAHAH OMG Apple is doomed!"

    O.o
  • Reply 22 of 51
    pedromartinspedromartins Posts: 1,333member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


     


    This is just a wild guess, but people who invest their money in the company might be slightly interested in this topic.


     


    As for new products, I'm not really that interested in reading any more about rumors of new phones for people who can barely afford a pair of shoes. I'll talk about new products, when the next exciting product comes along that is actually worth talking about.



    Actually, that's the problem.


     


    They invested the money on a company they know nothing about, and are demanding things, damaging the brand and themselves.


    Fortunately, Apple is too strong to be influenced by APPL and everything that comes with it: problematic stuff, fools.

  • Reply 23 of 51
    paul94544paul94544 Posts: 1,027member


    Eitherway this is a buy


     


    If profits miss it will drop at least 20 to 30 over the rest of week, which will provide a great entry point to  DCA on the way down. If it bust out it will go to next resistance level of about 470  in which case can ride a medium term position. The only secnario which sucks is whisper number.

  • Reply 24 of 51
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post



    "Apple only cares about profit!! They don't care about consumers! OMG look at how much money they're making!"



    Apple reports lower profit.



    "AHAHAH OMG Apple is doomed!"



    O.o


     


    Exactly. The trolls constantly hammer away at the "Apple tax" talking point. Apple is greedy, Apple screws its customers, Apple is overpriced. So record sales may be reported tomorrow but with reduced profits caused by competition, higher production costs, lower margins ,etc. Bottom line, if true, is that the "Apple tax" will have been lowered. What will the troll response be? Do I even have to ask this question? "Apple profit plunges, the company is doomed!"


     


    Point is no matter how good or mixed tomorrow's financial results are there will be massive negative spin applied. And because of the negative spin any positive talk or defense by Apple executives will, in turn, be "interpreted" as weakness and fear.


     


    The only good thing I'm starting to read around financial web sites is that people are beginning to question why the stock has been hammered so brutally in the face of the basic strength of fundamentals, sales, profit, cash position, and lack of debt of Apple. If AAPL were to dive to $200 it would represent a market cap of approximately equal to its cash and physical assets. Is that even a rational thought?  Yet the trolls like to predict it.

  • Reply 25 of 51
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    drwam wrote: »
    In the past several years, Apple had the spring release of an iPad to help expectations stay high.

    And Apple, knowing there would be no iPad etc released during the quarter, gave appropriate guidance. Not that the analysts etc ever listen. They will just look at last year when there was such a release and bad mouth the results even if they are awesome because they 'should have been' better. Same as the folks not paying attention to the fact that last quarter was holiday so of course sales this quarter will be lower. It's the nature of the whole post holiday time period.
  • Reply 26 of 51


    If you're focused on the longer horizon -- say, 2 to 5 years -- this is all piddling short-term noise, folks. Pay no attention.


     


    I recall in late 2006 -- around the time I joined these boards -- when there were invective-filled debates here at AI around whether Apple had topped out at $85. Some were confident that Apple could go as high as the $120s(!), and were laughed at.


     


    Then, in Jan 2007, the iPhone showed up...... image


     


    Patience.

  • Reply 27 of 51
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,228member
    To avoid a drop Apple need to beat the whisper number, which is at 10.55
  • Reply 28 of 51
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,228member
    applegreen wrote: »
    I have never seen so much pessimism about a company right before earnings.  Having sold all my AAPL higher, I bought some back today.  Will buy more tomorrow.  I expect $500 at least very soon.  Gotta have faith in Tim Cook and other managers.  They are the best in the business.  Wall Street is stupid.

    If you really bought the stock and not options its a good move. Volatility is very high right now so options premiums are huge. Options price are going down after earning regardless of stock direction, unless the move is big, both sides will lose.
  • Reply 29 of 51
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post


     


    Exactly. The trolls constantly hammer away at the "Apple tax" talking point. Apple is greedy, Apple screws its customers, Apple is overpriced. So record sales may be reported tomorrow but with reduced profits caused by competition, higher production costs, lower margins ,etc. Bottom line, if true, is that the "Apple tax" will have been lowered. What will the troll response be? Do I even have to ask this question? "Apple profit plunges, the company is doomed!"


     


    Point is no matter how good or mixed tomorrow's financial results are there will be massive negative spin applied. And because of the negative spin any positive talk or defense by Apple executives will, in turn, be "interpreted" as weakness and fear.


     


    The only good thing I'm starting to read around financial web sites is that people are beginning to question why the stock has been hammered so brutally in the face of the basic strength of fundamentals, sales, profit, cash position, and lack of debt of Apple. If AAPL were to dive to $200 it would represent a market cap of approximately equal to its cash and physical assets. Is that even a rational thought?  Yet the trolls like to predict it.



    Hence their label as "trolls".

  • Reply 30 of 51
    jetzjetz Posts: 1,293member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    If you're focused on the longer horizon -- say, 2 to 5 years -- this is all piddling short-term noise, folks. Pay no attention.


     


    I recall in late 2006 -- around the time I joined these boards -- when there were invective-filled debates here at AI around whether Apple had topped out at $85. Some were confident that Apple could go as high as the $120s(!), and were laughed at.


     


    Then, in Jan 2007, the iPhone showed up...... image


     


    Patience.



     


    Right.  But Apple is running out of product spaces that it can innovate in and still make boatlods of dough.


     


    iTV?  Sure, a nice new business.  But it won't make the stock move that much unless Apple has a revolutionary way to bundle service.  And a TV is something people replace every 5-10 years, not every 2 years with a subsidy from the telco.


     


    iWatch?  I could see how this could be the next iPod in a sense.  But the problem here is that iWatch sales would be entirely limited to iPhone/iTouch owners.  Profitable? Sure.  A major line of business for Apple? Doubt it.


     


    Now you can see why investors are cautious.  For every argument on why Apple should shoot up, there's plenty of reason to be cautious. 

  • Reply 31 of 51

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Jetz View Post


    Right.  But Apple is running out of product spaces that it can innovate in and still make boatlods of dough.


     


    iTV?  Sure, a nice new business.  But it won't make the stock move that much unless Apple has a revolutionary way to bundle service.  And a TV is something people replace every 5-10 years, not every 2 years with a subsidy from the telco.


     


    iWatch?  I could see how this could be the next iPod in a sense.  But the problem here is that iWatch sales would be entirely limited to iPhone/iTouch owners.  Profitable? Sure.  A major line of business for Apple? Doubt it.


     


    Now you can see why investors are cautious.  For every argument on why Apple should shoot up, there's plenty of reason to be cautious. 



    That's because you're probably not seeing beyond some cutesy nonsense that's regularly trotted out.


     


    Think iChinaMobile, iIndia, iHealth, iEducation, iCar, iEnterprise. Just for starters.

  • Reply 32 of 51
    pretzpretz Posts: 7member
    No surprise that profits will fall in these days of such intense competition. Apple's success has created the competition, which must compensate for lesser quality products with aggressive pricing. It's natural that the market leader will have to sacrifice a little profitability. But AAPL is still a long way from being in the red!
  • Reply 33 of 51
    sensisensi Posts: 346member
    apple ][ wrote: »
    Apple owns the entire tablet category.

    "IPad shipments are expected to account for 46 percent of the tablet market in 2013, down from 51 percent last year, the research company (IDC) said. The market share for devices running Android is expected to grow to 49 percent this year from 42 percent last year."

    source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/technology/14iht-android14.html
  • Reply 34 of 51
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    sensi wrote: »
    "IPad shipments are expected to account for 46 percent of the tablet market in 2013, down from 51 percent last year, the research company (IDC) said. The market share for devices running Android is expected to grow to 49 percent this year from 42 percent last year."

    source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/14/technology/14iht-android14.html

    1) Quoting estimates, especially future estimates, aren't fact. For example, in 2013 80% of the population will realize that analysts are worth less than palm readers. I declare it is writ therefore tis true¡

    2) Do you see 1 non-Apple tablet for every Apple tablet? I certainly don't. I do see a lot of Macs in consumer's hands so maybe all these tablets are being used by executives*.




    * Almost couldn't finish writing that sentence without laughing out loud over what a silly comment it is.
  • Reply 35 of 51
    I hate to be the bearer of bad news but this baby is going down to at least $320 before we see a recovery. Even if they come out with a report in line with guidance, people will sell on the news. The price of AAPL has nothing to do with fundamentals so you can throw your P/E calculations out the window. If AAPL was trading at the same P/E ratio as GOOG, it would be at $1055. Get out now while you can or wait for a bottom before you buy. :\
  • Reply 36 of 51
    echosonicechosonic Posts: 462member
    Fcuk you, Shaw Wu.
  • Reply 37 of 51

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by KDMeister View Post



    I hate to be the bearer of bad news but this baby is going down to at least $320 before we see a recovery. Even if they come out with a report in line with guidance, people will sell on the news. The price of AAPL has nothing to do with fundamentals so you can throw your P/E calculations out the window. If AAPL was trading at the same P/E ratio as GOOG, it would be at $1055. Get out now while you can or wait for a bottom before you buy. image


     


    So you're saying the price has nothing to do with fundamentals and it has nothing to do with P/E ratio.  It has already come down from >$700.  What reasoning do you provide for saying it will further drop to $320 or are you just pulling that number out of your ass?

  • Reply 38 of 51
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,446moderator
    techguy911 wrote: »
    It has already come down from >$700.  What reasoning do you provide for saying it will further drop to $320 or are you just pulling that number out of your ass?

    If you compare Apple with Exxon, which is a company that earns more profit per year than Apple (although Apple has beat it in some quarters and has more cash) you can see that its market cap is $396b. Apple's market cap is currently around $380b. For Apple to be worth more than Exxon, it would have to show that it is capable of being a more profitable company than Exxon going forward and that will be indicated by profit growth compared to last year.

    Estimates of $1000 are a bit crazy. Why would investors possibly value Apple at more than double a company that makes more profit per year than them? I'd say that $500 is a realistic valuation but that still requires indications of growth, which doesn't look likely. I think sales will still be strong so there's little reason to go down to $320 but it's still possible.

    Keep in mind what $320 represents. That still only gives them the second highest market cap in the world behind Exxon.
  • Reply 39 of 51
    nw942nw942 Posts: 6member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by echosonic View Post



    Fcuk you, Shaw Wu.




    He may be tagging along on the anti-TC campaign, but he'll only look stupid if wrong.


     


    Here in the UK I don't see that many people with an iPhone 5. The monthly price plans from the carriers are cheaper than they used to be for the 4 and 4S. Which either indicates competitive pressure or a wish/need to offload more 5s. I don't know if that's the same elsewhere, but a breakdown of sales by country could make interesting reading - perhaps some markets are less impressed by the 5.

  • Reply 40 of 51
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by nw942 View Post


    Here in the UK I don't see that many people with an iPhone 5.



     


    Why do people keep coming out with lame arguments like this? Not everyone you see is using a brand new phone


     


    iPhone 5 has only been around for only 6 months.


    iPhone 4S for nearly 18 months.


    And the 4 for nearly 3 years!


     


    Even if the iPhone 5 had been selling really well, you should expect to see four, or even five, times as many older iPhones.

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