By a year to forget they mean 50 billion in net profit?
Oh boy.
So google's 10 billion profit will be better?
What about the others?
The 50 billionish profit is already built into Apple's market cap. It is why Apple is worth so much money. Wall Street, and most investors, don't really focus on market cap, they focus on growth.
If I have $10,000 dollars to invest do I care if I put into Apple valued at @400 billion or a little known company worth a total of $1 million? No. What I care about is next year. If Apple made 50 billion again and is valued somewhere around where I bought, and the little company made 'only' $9 million in profit which is the one I'm more enthused about?
I care about growth. Even though Apple made a whopping 50 billion yet again my $10,000 is still only worth $10,000. With the small fish that only made $9mil in profit my $10,000 is now worth $100,000. My choice is pretty easy.
Apple is making a ton o dough and, more importantly- great products. Love Apple for that, but invest with your logic, not your love. Apple is spikey. Every new major phone release gives them a spike. The iPhone 5 was last years spike and finally moved Apple ahead of Android for a few months after several quarters of Android domination. The iPhone 6, and the next spike, is another year and a half away. The 5s will give another blip more that a spike. Apple gets spikes like that because of its rabid fans Only 1 in 5 iPhones was a new user, the rest were Apple fans rushing out to update their old phones. Now that all the Apple fans have rushed out and have the iPhone 5 the downside is sales tend to drop off fairly quickly.
A big part of Apples prior valuation had been speculation. They built a large amont of value into the price based on speculation of Apple hitting the 'next' home run. Apple didn't. They have not yet even really stepped up to the plate. That part of the value built into the stock is largely what fizzled out as well. It looks like Apple won't even really get back up to bat until next year, and there is no guarantee that what they are going to hit will be a home run.
Why don't any of these analysts get punished? Some warrant investigation by the SEC for stock manipulation. Other warrant at least being fired and public ridicule for missing the mark so often at their pathetic predictions that were unrealistic and not even close. I remember reading one story but can't find the link that compared "professional" analysts predictions vs. just some average joe type of unpaid investors with blogs and these bloggers were not a little closer, they were miles ahead in terms of their accuracy in predicting Apple net revenue, profits, and other key indicators over the last few years when compared to Apple analysts. It wasn't even close in fact. You have analysts who have never once came close to accurately predicting Apple revenue still employed and running their mouth for anyone that will listen.
Do I think Apple needs to make some changes? Yes but rarely for the reasons these dummies cite. Apple does need to do a better job at quickly squashing false rumors and info. They can still be as secretive as ever about future products but I can see the advantage of sending a PR person to counterbalance some of the absolute lies I hear and read about current or past issues. Secrecy about future products doesn't mean you have to let false propaganda and outright lies go unchallenged. CNN money are especially egregious about hit pieces. When Verizon announced their numbers last week they spun it as Apple tumbles just because only about 50% of iPhones were the 5 and the rest 4 and 4S.
I know Tim is a very smart and capable guy. But I do think he has been a bit too nice about letting these lies spin out of control. I wish we could hear some positive news more often from Apple's PR division and more appearances on these TV shows and interviews with journalist to at least slow down the FUD. Point out that Apple still controls the lion's share of profits in smart phones. I am also hoping they will announce a large stock buy back today and maybe even higher dividends. They don't need to say what iOS 7 includes in detail but it would be nice to hear something along the lines that it is going well and will have some amazing new features. Perhaps also address past supply issues and reassure the market that these problems have been corrected and they do not expect a repeat on new products this year. You can keep mum about new products while at least restoring confidence and saying the future looks bright.
So last week you were suggesting Apple take the company private for $380B and now this.
1) I never suggested that.
2) You cannot possibly think that I was seriously considering a Google purchase, even if you DIDN'T read the post that came after that one.
Self driving car! LOL that will be a high revenue generating product /s
You're right¡ No one on the face of the Earth has a car¡ What good would that be¡
Search algorithm for spotlight LOL another cash cow /s
Are you just pretending to be stupid? It works for Google.
Proof of IP theft LOL so if they own GOOG what are they going to do, sue themselves?
I'm not even sure you're pretending to be stupid anymore. How's "have closure" sound?! That at the very least. At most, they'd be able to sue the individuals responsible for (or complicit in) the theft.
Apple can't win with Wall Street analysts in particular and the street overall. The business model that Apple established goes so far against the typical MBA or McKinsey-style consultant-based business models that it doesn't matter if they over-perform to expectations - that simply means they'll do worse in the future, according to the analyst. If they underperform, then it means they're quickly going to go out of business because their whole model is wrong.
I'm always perplexed - do financial analysts not know what good fundamentals are? Judging any company based upon quarterly results does not make sense - unless the trend cycling downward. RIM is a perfect example, but even there, analysts cut them WAY too much slack for far too long. Their fundamental business was for crap, but for a long time they still got support from the street.
I agree with your analysis. The way Wall Street is treating AAPL (because they don't know who Apple is) is the way the Oakland A's were treated as highlighted in the movie Moneyball. The archaic baseball scouts only knew one way to do things and using a computer wasn't ever in the discussion. Along came Oakland followed by the Red Sox showing that there were other ways to evaluate a player. Believe the movie or not, the telling comment was at the end when a scout (or baseball manager) ripped apart the A's way even though it worked. Apple does things the way they want to do and just because it doesn't match the stupidity of the right coast doesn't mean the left coast's way of doing things is wrong.
Wall Street needs to be shut down because it's gambling run amok. Nothing that is happening on Wall Street benefits the common person in this world, it only benefits stock traders and those who choose to act irresponsibly.
to be honest, all this negative press for them is probably the best thing that could happen for AAPL. wall street always had such high expectations for earnings. well above apple's guidance. and when apple made a killing in profits & revenue, all hell would break loose because they missed analyst predictions by a small margin. perhaps now wall street will lower their expectations to something reasonable and apple can start meeting them.
I am so sick of everybody acting like stock price=health of company, because it doesn't. Go and look at the fundamentals of any dozen companies. Compare all the relevant ratios (e.g. profit as a percentage of sale) and then see if there is any rhyme or reason to the price of the stock. You'll find companies all over the place.
The stock market is a place where people use companies to gamble their money. But here people manipulate and act irrationally in order to make short-term gains. Apple is being run well and "Apple is Doomed" means that Apple doesn't continue to make gains that are many multiple times their competitors and for that matter any company over and over again.
It's like saying "OMG LeBron is only scoring 20 point a game instead of 25, they should trade him." All these analysts and hyperactive shareholders should go screw themselves. I want Apple to keep making great products not chasing the stock price. As Steve said, if you take care of the top line and have a great strategy everything will work out. In the mean time, quit using the stock price as a proxy for Apple's performance.
The 50 billionish profit is already built into Apple's market cap. It is why Apple is worth so much money. Wall Street, and most investors, don't really focus on market cap, they focus on growth.
If I have $10,000 dollars to invest do I care if I put into Apple valued at @400 billion or a little known company worth a total of $1 million? No. What I care about is next year. If Apple made 50 billion again and is valued somewhere around where I bought, and the little company made 'only' $9 million in profit which is the one I'm more enthused about?
I care about growth. Even though Apple made a whopping 50 billion yet again my $10,000 is still only worth $10,000. With the small fish that only made $9mil in profit my $10,000 is now worth $100,000. My choice is pretty easy. ...
I think everyone should stop pretending that investors as a whole make decisions about stocks on any sort of rational basis. If they did, stock manipulation wouldn't be so easy.
Android is actually getting cleaner. Looking at the HTC One I can say I'm likely going to buy this handset if it comes to Verizon. I think that this handset is what Apple should have done with the iPhone 5 and was too lazy or unable to do. I'm tired of the dated iOS look and feel and all of the hardware limitations. The habit of Apple doing a trickle effect in hardware releases has grown stale and change needs to be made. Just as Apple's customer service seemingly having gotten worse too. Everyone has their own conceptions of how Apple is. Mine is that the golden days have passed and the future looks murky.
"...hopes that Apple will introduce products in entirely new categories in fiscal 2014"
Ah yes, the pipeline. Forget 2013. There is stuff. In the pipeline. Check back next year.
'Entirely New' Categories. iPod, iPhone, iPad. That sort of stuff. Not a Retina iPad Mini, or a iPhone 5s.
IOW, they are saying Apple's TV is delayed till next FY (begins Oct 1, just in time for your US holiday shopping season).
IOW, what we already suspected.
Apple is evolving to be a 'innovation cyclical' stock. It's niche is selling the top 7% of global population (earners over 15K USD/year) in the world, to about 0.5Billion people per 2 year cycle. It needs an innovation for haloing it's product line to sell the entire suite (phone, pad, desktop, laptop, cloud, iTunes, AppleCare, and some Apps and infrastructure [TimeCapsule])... Because eventually, you run out of your market, and unless you motivate more to buy, you'll eventually run out of 'insanely great' reasons to spend 20-40% more for the synergy, and/or your competitors catch up, and all you do is sell to the converted. No Growth.
So if you look at Apple's stock from 97 to present you see 4 great ramps. iMac (97-01 [DotBomb]) iPod 03-06, iPhone (07-08 with a global meltdown), iPad (10-12)
And % wise, the past 6 months aren't as bad 2008-09, or 2005-2006, or 2000-2001.
This isn't a year to forget... it's a year to remember 'how bad _Bad_ used to be...' ;-)
all that said, the question is, will Apple create a new innovation, or just 'add chrome' to the current lineup (think Chevy circa 1958, not google). If the latter, then they are basically in a 'land war in asia' (see http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0093779/trivia?tab=qt ) and at best it will be maintaining current market slice. If the Former, something that is insanely great and something only Apple can do, then you will see another 2 year acceleratory bump in earnings, and therefore stock price.
Because as Asymco.com noted a long time ago, apple's stock price is pretty much tied to it's cash in the bank, and little else.
Android is actually getting cleaner. Looking at the HTC One I can say I'm likely going to buy this handset if it comes to Verizon. I think that this handset is what Apple should have done with the iPhone 5 and was too lazy or unable to do. I'm tired of the dated iOS look and feel and all of the hardware limitations. The habit of Apple doing a trickle effect in hardware releases has grown stale and change needs to be made. Just as Apple's customer service seemingly having gotten worse too. Everyone has their own conceptions of how Apple is. Mine is that the golden days have passed and the future looks murky.
Just curious what Apple's hardware limitations are? NFC?
Just curious what Apple's hardware limitations are? NFC?
No mini-usb, no removable battery, no removable memory, no available blender attachment, the screen isn't 27" diagonal, when set to "stun" they hardly even slow down....
Could Apple Insider stop quoting "Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets" recurring garbage? Every of his biased predictions about Apple turned wrong lately, it is maybe time to notice...
Opportune time for Apple to buy back their stock though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Yep. All of it.
I'm laughing at you because you suggested spending billions on stupid things like "closure" on IP theft. Apple acquires other companies for profit, not closure.
Not at that price, nope. Never have I suggested that.
I'm laughing at you because you suggested spending billions on stupid things like "closure" on IP theft. Apple acquires other companies for profit, not closure.
And your implication that purchasing Google, while a mildly outlandish and thoroughly illegal idea, would not be profitable, is causing me to laugh at you, in turn.
And your implication that purchasing Google, while a mildly outlandish and thoroughly illegal idea, would not be profitable, is causing me to laugh at you, in turn.
Oh stop it. You said you want to give away the search business and no mention of Google's ad business whatsoever which are the only areas that they make any money and somehow you suggest it would be profitable for Apple to buy them. Emotional investing is a losing proposition. Your common sense is being clouded by your irrational hatred. There is absolutely no good reason to entertain the notion of Apple buying Google even if there were no anticompetitive obstacles.
Really, AI, quit posting this analyst stuff already. We get it. Analysts are nothing more than Tarot card readers, chicken bone prognosticators, tea leaf seers, and aborted phrenologists. Analysts should have names like "The Amazing Karnac" or "Madam Kolache."
I'm tired of them.
The problem is that these are the articles that get the most hits. It's bait. I typically only read the stuff about...stuff...on this site. Anything about numbers forecasting that isn't a direct quote of an Apple executive is pretty boring to me. But it sure gets a lot of readers fired up. Suggestion: do what I do and refuse to click 9 out of 10 times. If not out of boredom, on principle.
Comments
"White believes Apple should leverage its $137.1 billion cash balance to attract investors and built a "safety net" around the stock."
This is exactly what Apple should NOT do! Investors not being attracted by APPL is their own problem not Apple's...
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins
By a year to forget they mean 50 billion in net profit?
Oh boy.
So google's 10 billion profit will be better?
What about the others?
The 50 billionish profit is already built into Apple's market cap. It is why Apple is worth so much money. Wall Street, and most investors, don't really focus on market cap, they focus on growth.
If I have $10,000 dollars to invest do I care if I put into Apple valued at @400 billion or a little known company worth a total of $1 million? No. What I care about is next year. If Apple made 50 billion again and is valued somewhere around where I bought, and the little company made 'only' $9 million in profit which is the one I'm more enthused about?
I care about growth. Even though Apple made a whopping 50 billion yet again my $10,000 is still only worth $10,000. With the small fish that only made $9mil in profit my $10,000 is now worth $100,000. My choice is pretty easy.
Apple is making a ton o dough and, more importantly- great products. Love Apple for that, but invest with your logic, not your love. Apple is spikey. Every new major phone release gives them a spike. The iPhone 5 was last years spike and finally moved Apple ahead of Android for a few months after several quarters of Android domination. The iPhone 6, and the next spike, is another year and a half away. The 5s will give another blip more that a spike. Apple gets spikes like that because of its rabid fans
A big part of Apples prior valuation had been speculation. They built a large amont of value into the price based on speculation of Apple hitting the 'next' home run. Apple didn't. They have not yet even really stepped up to the plate. That part of the value built into the stock is largely what fizzled out as well. It looks like Apple won't even really get back up to bat until next year, and there is no guarantee that what they are going to hit will be a home run.
Why don't any of these analysts get punished? Some warrant investigation by the SEC for stock manipulation. Other warrant at least being fired and public ridicule for missing the mark so often at their pathetic predictions that were unrealistic and not even close. I remember reading one story but can't find the link that compared "professional" analysts predictions vs. just some average joe type of unpaid investors with blogs and these bloggers were not a little closer, they were miles ahead in terms of their accuracy in predicting Apple net revenue, profits, and other key indicators over the last few years when compared to Apple analysts. It wasn't even close in fact. You have analysts who have never once came close to accurately predicting Apple revenue still employed and running their mouth for anyone that will listen.
Do I think Apple needs to make some changes? Yes but rarely for the reasons these dummies cite. Apple does need to do a better job at quickly squashing false rumors and info. They can still be as secretive as ever about future products but I can see the advantage of sending a PR person to counterbalance some of the absolute lies I hear and read about current or past issues. Secrecy about future products doesn't mean you have to let false propaganda and outright lies go unchallenged. CNN money are especially egregious about hit pieces. When Verizon announced their numbers last week they spun it as Apple tumbles just because only about 50% of iPhones were the 5 and the rest 4 and 4S.
I know Tim is a very smart and capable guy. But I do think he has been a bit too nice about letting these lies spin out of control. I wish we could hear some positive news more often from Apple's PR division and more appearances on these TV shows and interviews with journalist to at least slow down the FUD. Point out that Apple still controls the lion's share of profits in smart phones. I am also hoping they will announce a large stock buy back today and maybe even higher dividends. They don't need to say what iOS 7 includes in detail but it would be nice to hear something along the lines that it is going well and will have some amazing new features. Perhaps also address past supply issues and reassure the market that these problems have been corrected and they do not expect a repeat on new products this year. You can keep mum about new products while at least restoring confidence and saying the future looks bright.
Originally Posted by mstone
So last week you were suggesting Apple take the company private for $380B and now this.
1) I never suggested that.
2) You cannot possibly think that I was seriously considering a Google purchase, even if you DIDN'T read the post that came after that one.
Self driving car! LOL that will be a high revenue generating product /s
You're right¡ No one on the face of the Earth has a car¡ What good would that be¡
Search algorithm for spotlight LOL another cash cow /s
Are you just pretending to be stupid? It works for Google.
Proof of IP theft LOL so if they own GOOG what are they going to do, sue themselves?
I'm not even sure you're pretending to be stupid anymore. How's "have closure" sound?! That at the very least. At most, they'd be able to sue the individuals responsible for (or complicit in) the theft.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmgregory1
Apple can't win with Wall Street analysts in particular and the street overall. The business model that Apple established goes so far against the typical MBA or McKinsey-style consultant-based business models that it doesn't matter if they over-perform to expectations - that simply means they'll do worse in the future, according to the analyst. If they underperform, then it means they're quickly going to go out of business because their whole model is wrong.
I'm always perplexed - do financial analysts not know what good fundamentals are? Judging any company based upon quarterly results does not make sense - unless the trend cycling downward. RIM is a perfect example, but even there, analysts cut them WAY too much slack for far too long. Their fundamental business was for crap, but for a long time they still got support from the street.
I agree with your analysis. The way Wall Street is treating AAPL (because they don't know who Apple is) is the way the Oakland A's were treated as highlighted in the movie Moneyball. The archaic baseball scouts only knew one way to do things and using a computer wasn't ever in the discussion. Along came Oakland followed by the Red Sox showing that there were other ways to evaluate a player. Believe the movie or not, the telling comment was at the end when a scout (or baseball manager) ripped apart the A's way even though it worked. Apple does things the way they want to do and just because it doesn't match the stupidity of the right coast doesn't mean the left coast's way of doing things is wrong.
Wall Street needs to be shut down because it's gambling run amok. Nothing that is happening on Wall Street benefits the common person in this world, it only benefits stock traders and those who choose to act irresponsibly.
perhaps now wall street will lower their expectations to something reasonable and apple can start meeting them.
The stock market is a place where people use companies to gamble their money. But here people manipulate and act irrationally in order to make short-term gains. Apple is being run well and "Apple is Doomed" means that Apple doesn't continue to make gains that are many multiple times their competitors and for that matter any company over and over again.
It's like saying "OMG LeBron is only scoring 20 point a game instead of 25, they should trade him." All these analysts and hyperactive shareholders should go screw themselves. I want Apple to keep making great products not chasing the stock price. As Steve said, if you take care of the top line and have a great strategy everything will work out. In the mean time, quit using the stock price as a proxy for Apple's performance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood
The 50 billionish profit is already built into Apple's market cap. It is why Apple is worth so much money. Wall Street, and most investors, don't really focus on market cap, they focus on growth.
If I have $10,000 dollars to invest do I care if I put into Apple valued at @400 billion or a little known company worth a total of $1 million? No. What I care about is next year. If Apple made 50 billion again and is valued somewhere around where I bought, and the little company made 'only' $9 million in profit which is the one I'm more enthused about?
I care about growth. Even though Apple made a whopping 50 billion yet again my $10,000 is still only worth $10,000. With the small fish that only made $9mil in profit my $10,000 is now worth $100,000. My choice is pretty easy. ...
I think everyone should stop pretending that investors as a whole make decisions about stocks on any sort of rational basis. If they did, stock manipulation wouldn't be so easy.
Android is actually getting cleaner. Looking at the HTC One I can say I'm likely going to buy this handset if it comes to Verizon. I think that this handset is what Apple should have done with the iPhone 5 and was too lazy or unable to do. I'm tired of the dated iOS look and feel and all of the hardware limitations. The habit of Apple doing a trickle effect in hardware releases has grown stale and change needs to be made. Just as Apple's customer service seemingly having gotten worse too. Everyone has their own conceptions of how Apple is. Mine is that the golden days have passed and the future looks murky.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JollyPaul
"...hopes that Apple will introduce products in entirely new categories in fiscal 2014"
Ah yes, the pipeline. Forget 2013. There is stuff. In the pipeline. Check back next year.
'Entirely New' Categories. iPod, iPhone, iPad. That sort of stuff. Not a Retina iPad Mini, or a iPhone 5s.
IOW, they are saying Apple's TV is delayed till next FY (begins Oct 1, just in time for your US holiday shopping season).
IOW, what we already suspected.
Apple is evolving to be a 'innovation cyclical' stock. It's niche is selling the top 7% of global population (earners over 15K USD/year) in the world, to about 0.5Billion people per 2 year cycle. It needs an innovation for haloing it's product line to sell the entire suite (phone, pad, desktop, laptop, cloud, iTunes, AppleCare, and some Apps and infrastructure [TimeCapsule])... Because eventually, you run out of your market, and unless you motivate more to buy, you'll eventually run out of 'insanely great' reasons to spend 20-40% more for the synergy, and/or your competitors catch up, and all you do is sell to the converted. No Growth.
So if you look at Apple's stock from 97 to present you see 4 great ramps. iMac (97-01 [DotBomb]) iPod 03-06, iPhone (07-08 with a global meltdown), iPad (10-12)
And % wise, the past 6 months aren't as bad 2008-09, or 2005-2006, or 2000-2001.
This isn't a year to forget... it's a year to remember 'how bad _Bad_ used to be...' ;-)
all that said, the question is, will Apple create a new innovation, or just 'add chrome' to the current lineup (think Chevy circa 1958, not google). If the latter, then they are basically in a 'land war in asia' (see http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0093779/trivia?tab=qt ) and at best it will be maintaining current market slice. If the Former, something that is insanely great and something only Apple can do, then you will see another 2 year acceleratory bump in earnings, and therefore stock price.
Because as Asymco.com noted a long time ago, apple's stock price is pretty much tied to it's cash in the bank, and little else.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan
Just curious what Apple's hardware limitations are? NFC?
No mini-usb, no removable battery, no removable memory, no available blender attachment, the screen isn't 27" diagonal, when set to "stun" they hardly even slow down....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Originally Posted by mstone
So last week you were suggesting Apple take the company private for $380B and now this.
1) I never suggested that.
Sure you did.
http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/157037/shares-of-apple-sink-after-supplier-cirrus-warns-of-weak-results/40
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
Opportune time for Apple to buy back their stock though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Yep. All of it.
I'm laughing at you because you suggested spending billions on stupid things like "closure" on IP theft.
Originally Posted by mstone
Sure you did.
Not at that price, nope. Never have I suggested that.
I'm laughing at you because you suggested spending billions on stupid things like "closure" on IP theft.
And your implication that purchasing Google, while a mildly outlandish and thoroughly illegal idea, would not be profitable, is causing me to laugh at you, in turn.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
And your implication that purchasing Google, while a mildly outlandish and thoroughly illegal idea, would not be profitable, is causing me to laugh at you, in turn.
Oh stop it. You said you want to give away the search business and no mention of Google's ad business whatsoever which are the only areas that they make any money and somehow you suggest it would be profitable for Apple to buy them. Emotional investing is a losing proposition. Your common sense is being clouded by your irrational hatred. There is absolutely no good reason to entertain the notion of Apple buying Google even if there were no anticompetitive obstacles.
Originally Posted by mstone
There is absolutely no good reason to entertain the notion of Apple buying Google even if there were no anticompetitive obstacles.
Except for the reasons I stated, of course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Originally Posted by mstone
There is absolutely no good reason to entertain the notion of Apple buying Google even if there were no anticompetitive obstacles.
Except for the reasons I stated, of course.
You mean the same reasons like the Coyote thought it would be a good idea to buy the Acme company?
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp
Really, AI, quit posting this analyst stuff already. We get it. Analysts are nothing more than Tarot card readers, chicken bone prognosticators, tea leaf seers, and aborted phrenologists. Analysts should have names like "The Amazing Karnac" or "Madam Kolache."
I'm tired of them.
The problem is that these are the articles that get the most hits. It's bait. I typically only read the stuff about...stuff...on this site. Anything about numbers forecasting that isn't a direct quote of an Apple executive is pretty boring to me. But it sure gets a lot of readers fired up. Suggestion: do what I do and refuse to click 9 out of 10 times. If not out of boredom, on principle.