The only thing I would perhaps take some exception to is your comment on EPS growth versus unit sale growth. I suspect the market would cheer additional revenue growth even with flat EPS. There is a concern that Apple isn't performing well enough in emerging markets. Some growth (and frankly doing some damage to some of the Chinese/Taiwanese/Korean competition) would be welcome as long as the overall Apple brand isn't damaged. With all the stories over the last few days about the 5C being a flop, I wonder if Apple hasn't squandered an opportunity to do some damage to Samsung, Lenovo etc. and grab some market share in China, India etc.
I keep thinking that any indication of Apple's margin going south along with flat eps will send AAPL to $300.
Apple shipped 26 millions iphones with 8.6 EPS in Q4 2012. So anything above 32 millions iphones is good in terms of unit sales. The problem is EPS, if Apple cant do better than $8.6 we are in a decline again.
Q1 2014 looks better, better unit sales AND margins should results in better EPS.
Well said, but not only does it have to show better EPS, but that it can continue to increase EPS. With iPhones accounting for 50% of the EPS that means a staggering number of iPhones need to be sold each year and even more need to be sold the following year to attract investors. One quarter isnt going to change the last year around.
Needs another product line or some other revenue stream to bring the growth in the share price back.
I keep thinking that any indication of Apple's margin going south along with flat eps will send AAPL to $300.
Next quarters we will compare to last year quarters with low margins. So margins should improve on a YoY basis. Add massive buybacks and more unit sales I dont see how EPS can remain flat. In Q1 2014 Apple EPS should be back to growth.
The stock market will value a company because it's growing. It can be a little hot dog stand, but if EPS are going way up, the stock price will be high. APPL can be the most successful and best tech company, and be way UNDERvalued.
However, I think Apple's EPS (personally) will go up.
Apple is buying up shares, right? Won't that impact EPS? And people are buying a tidal wave of high margin 5S's, a product that will be in ever greater supply while being produced with ever lower manufacturing costs.
Also, Apple is reaffirming its identity as an aspirational/premium brand. People want its pricier offerings like the 5S. I don't know that much about finance, but it just HAS to be good for EPS when a high margin product like the 5S is a monster hit, and you just know that the cost to produce the 5S will only decrease over the coming months...
Hmmmm... apparently, if comments on here are any indication, the cost of producing the 5s will remain the same throughout its lifespan.
Some of those projections come from calculations of necessary iPhone sales to maintain yoy eps growth.
80 million would definitely send the stock up... unless, of course, iPad shipments tanked drastically... which I can't see happening.
IPad sales was unimpressive last quarter. But iPhone shipment was notably above estimates. That gave $AAPL a decent boost. So it would seem iPhone numbers drive $AAPL more than anything else.
I keep thinking that any indication of Apple's margin going south along with flat eps will send AAPL to $300.
You can think whatever you want. Even if EPS is flat this quarter, the probability of going anywhere near $300 is very very low. I'm thinking it's going to stay at/near $500. And I'm putting my money where my mouth is, how about you?
Where do these "people" live where they can't get a phone? Still plenty of 5C and 5S around my city/state. Time to buy up a few, then resell them on ebay and make a few $$$.
Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.
For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS
PE of 30 (goog) as opposed to 13 (aapl)? Are you kidding me?
It is indeed mystery/magic not common sense. Especially when considering ad revenue in mobile. Mobile devices are dramatically increasing, mobile space is then more and more valuable...where is goog's EPS in that category?
Don't get me wrong, goog has lots of things going for it, I'm not a hater. But don't tell people that 30/13 PE is common sense. That's crazy talk.
You can think whatever you want. Even if EPS is flat this quarter, the probability of going anywhere near $300 is very very low. I'm thinking it's going to stay at/near $500. And I'm putting my money where my mouth is, how about you?
Are we grumpy today.
I actually don't think AAPL is going to stay at/near $500. I actually think it has a good chance of hitting $600 after the 1st fiscal quarter numbers are released in January.
... and I still stick by the idea that AAPL will sink to $300 if margins are drastically hit at any time over the next year or two.
By the way... anyone who puts their money where their mouth is isn't a good investor. You should put your money into something that provides more solid growth.
You really think Google is fairly valued? You think their quarter warrants a 10% increase? I think the market is in a bubble an over valued. Apple and Microsoft are maybe two tech companies more fairly valued. Facebook is up 5% today with a market cap of $133B. If it keeps current trajectory Facebook will have a higher market cap than Verizon, Merck, Coca Cola, Oracle, Citigroup, Visa. It already has surpassed companies like Pepsi, Cisco, Comcast, Intel Qualcomm and Disney. I think that's crazy. And don't even get me started on Amazon, a company valued at $140B even though it barely turns a profit. Apple probably makes more in one quarter than Amazon ever has in its entire existence. The bubble is going to burst. And it will be ugly when that happens.
Support what u said but the truth is google intentionally earn less so they " grow" easily.
PE of 30 (goog) as opposed to 13 (aapl)? Are you kidding me?
It is indeed mystery/magic not common sense. Especially when considering ad revenue in mobile. Mobile devices are dramatically increasing, mobile space is then more and more valuable...where is goog's EPS in that category?
Don't get me wrong, goog has lots of things going for it, I'm not a hater. But don't tell people that 30/13 PE is common sense. That's crazy talk.
As someone else pointed out a while ago... AAPL had a high p/e at one time and Apple grew into it.
Could this be the reason behind investments in GOOG...
I actually don't think AAPL is going to stay at/near $500. I actually think it has a good chance of hitting $600 after the 1st fiscal quarter numbers are released in January.
... and I still stick by the idea that AAPL will sink to $300 if margins are drastically hit at any time over the next year.
By the way... anyone who puts their money where their mouth is isn't a good investor. You should put your money into something that provides more solid growth.
grumpy?...ahem, yes a little. :-)
I'm just calling it as I see it, and don't appreciate terse posting doom/gloom (i.e. $300) based only on flat EPS this Q.
Let me rephrase, money/mouth is just calling posters out who like to say something to manipulate, if that's not you, my apologies, but again, that $300 post of yours kind of deserved it? I'm in no way saying investors should put all their money in something just because they "believe" in it.
Comments
Well said!
The only thing I would perhaps take some exception to is your comment on EPS growth versus unit sale growth. I suspect the market would cheer additional revenue growth even with flat EPS. There is a concern that Apple isn't performing well enough in emerging markets. Some growth (and frankly doing some damage to some of the Chinese/Taiwanese/Korean competition) would be welcome as long as the overall Apple brand isn't damaged. With all the stories over the last few days about the 5C being a flop, I wonder if Apple hasn't squandered an opportunity to do some damage to Samsung, Lenovo etc. and grab some market share in China, India etc.
I keep thinking that any indication of Apple's margin going south along with flat eps will send AAPL to $300.
Apple shipped 26 millions iphones with 8.6 EPS in Q4 2012. So anything above 32 millions iphones is good in terms of unit sales. The problem is EPS, if Apple cant do better than $8.6 we are in a decline again.
Q1 2014 looks better, better unit sales AND margins should results in better EPS.
Well said, but not only does it have to show better EPS, but that it can continue to increase EPS. With iPhones accounting for 50% of the EPS that means a staggering number of iPhones need to be sold each year and even more need to be sold the following year to attract investors. One quarter isnt going to change the last year around.
Needs another product line or some other revenue stream to bring the growth in the share price back.
Apple doomed by semantics.™
Next quarters we will compare to last year quarters with low margins. So margins should improve on a YoY basis. Add massive buybacks and more unit sales I dont see how EPS can remain flat. In Q1 2014 Apple EPS should be back to growth.
Breaking News:
Apple stock tanks after shipments of the new iPhone failed to meet the 80 million mark analysts had projected for the 3rd quarter.
The stock market will value a company because it's growing. It can be a little hot dog stand, but if EPS are going way up, the stock price will be high. APPL can be the most successful and best tech company, and be way UNDERvalued.
However, I think Apple's EPS (personally) will go up.
Apple is buying up shares, right? Won't that impact EPS? And people are buying a tidal wave of high margin 5S's, a product that will be in ever greater supply while being produced with ever lower manufacturing costs.
Just my personal opinion!
Breaking News:
Apple stock tanks after shipments of the new iPhone failed to meet the 80 million mark analysts had projected for the 3rd quarter.
Some of those projections come from calculations of necessary iPhone sales to maintain yoy eps growth.
80 million would definitely send the stock up... unless, of course, iPad shipments tanked drastically... which I can't see happening.
Also, Apple is reaffirming its identity as an aspirational/premium brand. People want its pricier offerings like the 5S. I don't know that much about finance, but it just HAS to be good for EPS when a high margin product like the 5S is a monster hit, and you just know that the cost to produce the 5S will only decrease over the coming months...
Hmmmm... apparently, if comments on here are any indication, the cost of producing the 5s will remain the same throughout its lifespan.
Some of those projections come from calculations of necessary iPhone sales to maintain yoy eps growth.
80 million would definitely send the stock up... unless, of course, iPad shipments tanked drastically... which I can't see happening.
IPad sales was unimpressive last quarter. But iPhone shipment was notably above estimates. That gave $AAPL a decent boost. So it would seem iPhone numbers drive $AAPL more than anything else.
I keep thinking that any indication of Apple's margin going south along with flat eps will send AAPL to $300.
You can think whatever you want. Even if EPS is flat this quarter, the probability of going anywhere near $300 is very very low. I'm thinking it's going to stay at/near $500. And I'm putting my money where my mouth is, how about you?
Where do these "people" live where they can't get a phone? Still plenty of 5C and 5S around my city/state. Time to buy up a few, then resell them on ebay and make a few $$$.
Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.
For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS
PE of 30 (goog) as opposed to 13 (aapl)? Are you kidding me?
It is indeed mystery/magic not common sense. Especially when considering ad revenue in mobile. Mobile devices are dramatically increasing, mobile space is then more and more valuable...where is goog's EPS in that category?
Don't get me wrong, goog has lots of things going for it, I'm not a hater. But don't tell people that 30/13 PE is common sense. That's crazy talk.
You can think whatever you want. Even if EPS is flat this quarter, the probability of going anywhere near $300 is very very low. I'm thinking it's going to stay at/near $500. And I'm putting my money where my mouth is, how about you?
Are we grumpy today.
I actually don't think AAPL is going to stay at/near $500. I actually think it has a good chance of hitting $600 after the 1st fiscal quarter numbers are released in January.
... and I still stick by the idea that AAPL will sink to $300 if margins are drastically hit at any time over the next year or two.
By the way... anyone who puts their money where their mouth is isn't a good investor. You should put your money into something that provides more solid growth.
Support what u said but the truth is google intentionally earn less so they " grow" easily.
PE of 30 (goog) as opposed to 13 (aapl)? Are you kidding me?
It is indeed mystery/magic not common sense. Especially when considering ad revenue in mobile. Mobile devices are dramatically increasing, mobile space is then more and more valuable...where is goog's EPS in that category?
Don't get me wrong, goog has lots of things going for it, I'm not a hater. But don't tell people that 30/13 PE is common sense. That's crazy talk.
As someone else pointed out a while ago... AAPL had a high p/e at one time and Apple grew into it.
Could this be the reason behind investments in GOOG...
Are we grumpy today.
I actually don't think AAPL is going to stay at/near $500. I actually think it has a good chance of hitting $600 after the 1st fiscal quarter numbers are released in January.
... and I still stick by the idea that AAPL will sink to $300 if margins are drastically hit at any time over the next year.
By the way... anyone who puts their money where their mouth is isn't a good investor. You should put your money into something that provides more solid growth.
grumpy?...ahem, yes a little. :-)
I'm just calling it as I see it, and don't appreciate terse posting doom/gloom (i.e. $300) based only on flat EPS this Q.
Let me rephrase, money/mouth is just calling posters out who like to say something to manipulate, if that's not you, my apologies, but again, that $300 post of yours kind of deserved it? I'm in no way saying investors should put all their money in something just because they "believe" in it.
I'll un-grump myself now.
As someone else pointed out a while ago... AAPL had a high p/e at one time and Apple grew into it.
Could this be the reason behind investments in GOOG...
Yes, possibly...money flows in/out. Makes sense. Time value of trading is how big bucks are made, no doubt.
Common sense should reveal something more like 25/17 goog/aapl.
But I'll be the first to admit that share prices are anything but common sense. Can you admit the same?