I understand China, but what really puzzles me is the choice of UK, France, Germany, and Australia as test-markets for the hobbled phone; I don't think of these countries as non-affluent. I suppose 5 years from now, the rationale will be obvious.
It's obvious now: I said this on the other thread. This is not really designed for the PAYG market.
Heres the big deal.
O2 UK:
Contract £28 per month. iPhone 16G = £129.99;
Contract £28 per month. iPhone 8G = £49.99
Which seems like a bigger drop than the drop in unlocked prices. That seems, naively - but a lot of people think like this - to be a drop of 61.5%. Thats because people discount the per month payment - they are probably paying that amount anyway on their previous phone.
The way I positioned that - the price per month first, is the way a lot of people in the mid range market think in Europe. £28 is about the sweet spot for mid-range phone owners, and this opens up a lot of market. Its a lot easier to take £50 out of your pocket, than £130.
It will probably get cheaper. This is just the first change in the innards to take advantage of the platform. Other price reductions will probably follow on economies of scale and production cost paydowns.
The other thing that's always missing in the 5c forecast is the China Mobile 4G effect, which won't be showing up until the end of this year. How come you don't take that into account?
Not to pick on you, nobody else makes this simple observation either.
From what I have read most of the Chinese sales have also been the highend 5s model, it's seen as a status symbol out there isn't it?
yes, those that 'almost' have enough money to justify purchase of an iPhone... but not quite.
Let's say 'fairly limited' is the next 2.5% of the income distribution below where iPhones sell over 40% across non US geographies. and that market is planning to buy about 700M (see analysts note below*)non iPhone5s/5c[16/32]/Galaxy 3/4 smartphones.
If price is the only issue (and for most analysts*, it is) 2.5% of 700M will buy 18M iPhones. let's say that's now $200 (30%) in gross profits after the price drop. okay... that's 3.6B in annual profits contributed (about $4/share?).
Pricing wise, you don't want to dip too low... the key is to have a customer has enough means to 'buys' things with their phone, specifically AppleID things. That means the user has to have some means of credit, if nothing else, cash in hand to buy iTune Gift cards (not discounting the 'family' plan of Dad/Mom, Child 1, ... child N - apple has to compete on the 'fleet' price). Short term market share is not what you want... you want long term AppleIDs, and repeat sales.
* (over 500M are projected to be sold in China and India alone per Mediacells and the Guardian, and Mobithinking says last years sales were over 1B.) I think it's high by 25% but that's me questioning analysts... silly me... they're always right)
Your numbers seem to suggest that every one of these people are going to buy an iPhone. There are much cheaper alternatives than the 8gb 5c... and these people seem to be buying them already.
Sure... it's worth a shot... but it's still a limited market for Apple.
If you had one and used it for any length of time you'd see it's a really great phone for the price. It definitely not a Tata or Chevy. Never had an issue with the 5c's .
Your numbers seem to suggest that every one of these people are going to buy an iPhone. There are much cheaper alternatives than the 8gb 5c... and these people seem to be buying them already.
Sure... it's worth a shot... but it's still a limited market for Apple.
yes... and there are people in the next full quartile (25% of 1Billion smartphone buyers 250M ) buying 5c's now. I took the top 10% of that quartile for simple math.... YMMV.
As for your argument. There are much cheaper alternatives... but if cheap was the only criteria... NO IPHONES WOULD SELL ANYWHERE until they were the same price as the lowest priced Gingerbread based plastic smartphone with a stylus and AAA batteries.
It's a VALUE proposition.
The logic is that buyer X values the iPhone at $700, but it's selling at $725, and he only has $650... rational thinking would be is a lot are buying <<$600 phones phones to 'get by' until they can afford an iPhone (spend 400 save $250). Now if I have $650, and the phone is sold at $650... I buy it... .because I sense more value ($700) than what I spend ($650... I saved $50). It's an Asian Market thing;-)
Yes, lots of people are buying high end phones around $600... but those may have a particular value prop.... e.g. large screen, a color, a particular app, local expertise [my brother has the same phone], or even brand loyalty (in the Asia markets, you buy a 'corporation' your house is all Mitsubishi, Sony, LG, Samsung, etc, and stores are set up that way, like Mid-HighEnd wares are done in the Macy's, Saks, and the like [Polo RL, Levis, Michael Kors, etc. in the US dept stores]).
The Apple Logic is getting them into the ecosystem to enchant them and lock them in... their appleID, their music. their favorite apps, the subtle interface things they don't want to unlearn and learn again... Apple's market share magic(trick) is retention. Using published numbers: if 76% of all iPhone users stay iPhone users (let's say that's 76% of 250M current iPhone users WW), and 24% of all WW non-iPhone owners WANT their next phone to be an iPhone. (remember... a Billion non-iPhones are to be sold this year... and that's where i got my 25%/2.5%), making those people see a 'deal' may be all you need to get them in and then keep 3/4s of them every buying cycle. Eventually, equilibrium will occur around 30% market share for Apple, and these are the 'best' users (spend the most in iTunes, make developers happy, make retailers who sell via the web happy). if you have ~30% of the market, selling 3-4 phones, with lower costs to market and make... that works. As long as Samsung* doesn't have over 50% the market (go LENOVO! go LG! Go HTC!, Go Hauwaie!), and is spending more on making and selling, and discounting phones to maintain that market.
Just bargain basementing phones.... This is what the Analysts are screaming for... TAKE A LOSS NOW! ('Do Amazon'!!!) to win market share NOW. Apple is playing it slightly differently in that it sees WINNING as not headcount, but spend, and is willing to cultivate the long game maximize spend now, and spend later (when phones do effectively go to commodity).
*I really do think Apple planned for this market model... although my guess is they thought it would be Nokia instead of Samsung. and Mego/WinMob instead of Android. Blackberry was an outside chance at being the market lead, but they scroowed the pooch badly, and they had only one value prop... the fixed keyboard... not a scalable model in a world where touch typing is a very esoteric skill, and keyboards change in each market.
yes... and there are people in the next full quartile (25% of 1Billion smartphone buyers 250M ) buying 5c's now. I took the top 10% of that quartile for simple math.... YMMV.
As for your argument. There are much cheaper alternatives... but if cheap was the only criteria... NO IPHONES WOULD SELL ANYWHERE until they were the same price as the lowest priced Gingerbread based plastic smartphone with a stylus and AAA batteries.
It's a VALUE proposition.
The logic is that buyer X values the iPhone at $700, but it's selling at $725, and he only has $650... rational thinking would be is a lot are buying <<$600 phones phones to 'get by' until they can afford an iPhone (spend 400 save $250). Now if I have $650, and the phone is sold at $650... I buy it... .because I sense more value ($700) than what I spend ($650... I saved $50). It's an Asian Market thing;-)
Yes, lots of people are buying high end phones around $600... but those may have a particular value prop.... e.g. large screen, a color, a particular app, local expertise [my brother has the same phone], or even brand loyalty (in the Asia markets, you buy a 'corporation' your house is all Mitsubishi, Sony, LG, Samsung, etc, and stores are set up that way, like Mid-HighEnd wares are done in the Macy's, Saks, and the like [Polo RL, Levis, Michael Kors, etc. in the US dept stores]).
The Apple Logic is getting them into the ecosystem to enchant them and lock them in... their appleID, their music. their favorite apps, the subtle interface things they don't want to unlearn and learn again... Apple's market share magic(trick) is retention. Using published numbers: if 76% of all iPhone users stay iPhone users (let's say that's 76% of 250M current iPhone users WW), and 24% of all WW non-iPhone owners WANT their next phone to be an iPhone. (remember... a Billion non-iPhones are to be sold this year... and that's where i got my 25%/2.5%), making those people see a 'deal' may be all you need to get them in and then keep 3/4s of them every buying cycle. Eventually, equilibrium will occur around 30% market share for Apple, and these are the 'best' users (spend the most in iTunes, make developers happy, make retailers who sell via the web happy). if you have ~30% of the market, selling 3-4 phones, with lower costs to market and make... that works. As long as Samsung* doesn't have over 50% the market (go LENOVO! go LG! Go HTC!, Go Hauwaie!), and is spending more on making and selling, and discounting phones to maintain that market.
Just bargain basementing phones.... This is what the Analysts are screaming for... TAKE A LOSS NOW! ('Do Amazon'!!!) to win market share NOW. Apple is playing it slightly differently in that it sees WINNING as not headcount, but spend, and is willing to cultivate the long game maximize spend now, and spend later (when phones do effectively go to commodity).
*I really do think Apple planned for this market model... although my guess is they thought it would be Nokia instead of Samsung. and Mego/WinMob instead of Android. Blackberry was an outside chance at being the market lead, but they scroowed the pooch badly, and they had only one value prop... the fixed keyboard... not a scalable model in a world where touch typing is a very esoteric skill, and keyboards change in each market.
That's a lot of words for saying it's a limited market.
The market isn't limited. It's large. I can't follow all of Geoffs arguments but he's barking up the wrong tree with regards the unlocked pricing. Let me rephrase what I said earlier.
For the UK mid contract market - the £28/m - the sticker cost has just dropped by 61%. If you sacrifice 8G.
I think this is a good idea. It gives Apple in roads into poorer countries like the UK and Australia. Strange to launch it in Germany though.
Unfortunately in Germany the iPhone is at a a measly 13-18%, depending on which analyst charts you decide to check.
Even more sadly, Nokia is nipping at Apple's heals here.
Main reason: very few if any specials aka "snäppchen" with Apple gear, and the media couldn't get enough out of chopping Apple any chance they had in 2011-12. Apple is portrayed as the largest rip off company the world has ever seen and is the cause of everything from global warming, cancer, to the fall in birthrates to poor Chinese children workers. Again sadly, I'm not joking or exagerrating.
The 8gb 5c will still not sell here. Those that know and trust Apple stuff, have the money to purchase top of the line, fully loaded. The same way they purchase their cars.
From
Unfortunately in Germany the iPhone is at a a measly 13-18%, depending on which analyst charts you decide to check.
Even more sadly, Nokia is nipping at Apple's heals here.
Main reason: very few if any specials aka "snäppchen" with Apple gear, and the media couldn't get enough out of chopping Apple any chance they had in 2011-12. Apple is portrayed as the largest rip off company the world has ever seen and is the cause of everything from global warming, cancer, to the fall in birthrates to poor Chinese children workers. Again sadly, I'm not joking or exagerrating.
The 8gb 5c will still not sell here. Those that know and trust Apple stuff, have the money to purchase top of the line, fully loaded. The same way they purchase their cars.
I think you are wrong. I also think that this response is based on internal surveys Apple uses where they divide the smartphone market into real smart phones and feature phones and are coming second in the UK, Germany etcetera. Clearly Germany is price conscious - hence the Lumina. Now people can get an iPhone at a cheap sticker price and on a normal 35€ ish contract. That's big.
I think you are wrong. I also think that this response is based on internal surveys Apple uses where they divide the smartphone market into real smart phones and feature phones and are coming second in the UK, Germany etcetera. Clearly Germany is price conscious - hence the Lumina. Now people can get an iPhone at a cheap sticker price and on a normal 35€ ish contract. That's big.
Would those be the same surveys they used to determine 5c demand at launch?
It's almost like you can't tell an estimate from a survey of an existing market.
The 5c market is basically non existing in Germany. The 8gb 5c will still cost over 500eur, this is not going to appeal to those price conscious Germans you seem to know so much about.
Apple's new low-end 8-gigabyte iPhone 5c debuted on Tuesday in major markets across the globe, including the U.K., China, France, Germany and Australia, though it did not replace the iPhone 4s, which remains the company's cheapest smartphone available [updated].
Most notably, the new 8-gigabyte iPhone 5c is not available in the U.S., Apple's largest market. Instead, the iPhone 5c remains limited to capacities of 16- and 32-gigabytes in America.
But internationally, some markets now have the option of a slightly cheaper iPhone 5c, which aside from capacity retains the specifications of the preexisting models, including a 4-inch Retina display and A6 processor.
In the U.K., the new 8-gigabyte iPhone 5c is priced at ?429, which is ?40 cheaper than the 16-gigabyte version. The 8-gigabyte iPhone 4s, meanwhile, is available for ?349, or ?80 less expensive than the comparable iPhone 5c.
In China, one of Apple's fastest growing markets, the 8-gigabyte iPhone 5c sells for RMB 4,088, compared to RMB 4,488 for the 16-gigabyte version. The iPhone 4s, a device first released in 2011, remains available for RMB 3,288.<q>Expectations that Apple might discontinue the iPhone 4s for a new 8GB iPhone 5c were premature.</q>
The limited launch of the 8-gigabyte iPhone 5c would seem to suggest that Apple has selectively picked markets where it believes the new price point could help find some success.
"The mid-tier iPhone segment is growing year-over-year and the 8GB model provides a more affordable option for markets where LTE is becoming more established," the company said.
Neil Hughes, I see you are perpetuating the lie that 'TimCook admitted that iPhone 5c sales hadn't found the level of sales the company hoped it would.' He said no such thing. Another little victory for the devil.
Comments
I understand China, but what really puzzles me is the choice of UK, France, Germany, and Australia as test-markets for the hobbled phone; I don't think of these countries as non-affluent. I suppose 5 years from now, the rationale will be obvious.
It's obvious now: I said this on the other thread. This is not really designed for the PAYG market.
Heres the big deal.
O2 UK:
Contract £28 per month. iPhone 16G = £129.99;
Contract £28 per month. iPhone 8G = £49.99
Which seems like a bigger drop than the drop in unlocked prices. That seems, naively - but a lot of people think like this - to be a drop of 61.5%. Thats because people discount the per month payment - they are probably paying that amount anyway on their previous phone.
The way I positioned that - the price per month first, is the way a lot of people in the mid range market think in Europe. £28 is about the sweet spot for mid-range phone owners, and this opens up a lot of market. Its a lot easier to take £50 out of your pocket, than £130.
It will probably get cheaper. This is just the first change in the innards to take advantage of the platform. Other price reductions will probably follow on economies of scale and production cost paydowns.
The other thing that's always missing in the 5c forecast is the China Mobile 4G effect, which won't be showing up until the end of this year. How come you don't take that into account?
Not to pick on you, nobody else makes this simple observation either.
From what I have read most of the Chinese sales have also been the highend 5s model, it's seen as a status symbol out there isn't it?
yes, those that 'almost' have enough money to justify purchase of an iPhone... but not quite.
Let's say 'fairly limited' is the next 2.5% of the income distribution below where iPhones sell over 40% across non US geographies. and that market is planning to buy about 700M (see analysts note below*) non iPhone5s/5c[16/32]/Galaxy 3/4 smartphones.
If price is the only issue (and for most analysts*, it is) 2.5% of 700M will buy 18M iPhones. let's say that's now $200 (30%) in gross profits after the price drop. okay... that's 3.6B in annual profits contributed (about $4/share?).
Pricing wise, you don't want to dip too low... the key is to have a customer has enough means to 'buys' things with their phone, specifically AppleID things. That means the user has to have some means of credit, if nothing else, cash in hand to buy iTune Gift cards (not discounting the 'family' plan of Dad/Mom, Child 1, ... child N - apple has to compete on the 'fleet' price). Short term market share is not what you want... you want long term AppleIDs, and repeat sales.
* (over 500M are projected to be sold in China and India alone per Mediacells and the Guardian, and Mobithinking says last years sales were over 1B.) I think it's high by 25% but that's me questioning analysts... silly me... they're always right)
Your numbers seem to suggest that every one of these people are going to buy an iPhone. There are much cheaper alternatives than the 8gb 5c... and these people seem to be buying them already.
Sure... it's worth a shot... but it's still a limited market for Apple.
I think this is a good idea. It gives Apple in roads into poorer countries like the UK and Australia. Strange to launch it in Germany though.
I think this is a good idea. It gives Apple in roads into poorer countries like the UK and Australia. Strange to launch it in Germany though.
I imagine that wages are about the same in those countries. Oz is probably richer.
Your numbers seem to suggest that every one of these people are going to buy an iPhone. There are much cheaper alternatives than the 8gb 5c... and these people seem to be buying them already.
Sure... it's worth a shot... but it's still a limited market for Apple.
yes... and there are people in the next full quartile (25% of 1Billion smartphone buyers 250M ) buying 5c's now. I took the top 10% of that quartile for simple math.... YMMV.
As for your argument. There are much cheaper alternatives... but if cheap was the only criteria... NO IPHONES WOULD SELL ANYWHERE until they were the same price as the lowest priced Gingerbread based plastic smartphone with a stylus and AAA batteries.
It's a VALUE proposition.
The logic is that buyer X values the iPhone at $700, but it's selling at $725, and he only has $650... rational thinking would be is a lot are buying <<$600 phones phones to 'get by' until they can afford an iPhone (spend 400 save $250). Now if I have $650, and the phone is sold at $650... I buy it... .because I sense more value ($700) than what I spend ($650... I saved $50). It's an Asian Market thing;-)
Yes, lots of people are buying high end phones around $600... but those may have a particular value prop.... e.g. large screen, a color, a particular app, local expertise [my brother has the same phone], or even brand loyalty (in the Asia markets, you buy a 'corporation' your house is all Mitsubishi, Sony, LG, Samsung, etc, and stores are set up that way, like Mid-HighEnd wares are done in the Macy's, Saks, and the like [Polo RL, Levis, Michael Kors, etc. in the US dept stores]).
The Apple Logic is getting them into the ecosystem to enchant them and lock them in... their appleID, their music. their favorite apps, the subtle interface things they don't want to unlearn and learn again... Apple's market share magic(trick) is retention. Using published numbers: if 76% of all iPhone users stay iPhone users (let's say that's 76% of 250M current iPhone users WW), and 24% of all WW non-iPhone owners WANT their next phone to be an iPhone. (remember... a Billion non-iPhones are to be sold this year... and that's where i got my 25%/2.5%), making those people see a 'deal' may be all you need to get them in and then keep 3/4s of them every buying cycle. Eventually, equilibrium will occur around 30% market share for Apple, and these are the 'best' users (spend the most in iTunes, make developers happy, make retailers who sell via the web happy). if you have ~30% of the market, selling 3-4 phones, with lower costs to market and make... that works. As long as Samsung* doesn't have over 50% the market (go LENOVO! go LG! Go HTC!, Go Hauwaie!), and is spending more on making and selling, and discounting phones to maintain that market.
Just bargain basementing phones.... This is what the Analysts are screaming for... TAKE A LOSS NOW! ('Do Amazon'!!!) to win market share NOW. Apple is playing it slightly differently in that it sees WINNING as not headcount, but spend, and is willing to cultivate the long game maximize spend now, and spend later (when phones do effectively go to commodity).
*I really do think Apple planned for this market model... although my guess is they thought it would be Nokia instead of Samsung. and Mego/WinMob instead of Android. Blackberry was an outside chance at being the market lead, but they scroowed the pooch badly, and they had only one value prop... the fixed keyboard... not a scalable model in a world where touch typing is a very esoteric skill, and keyboards change in each market.
yes... and there are people in the next full quartile (25% of 1Billion smartphone buyers 250M ) buying 5c's now. I took the top 10% of that quartile for simple math.... YMMV.
As for your argument. There are much cheaper alternatives... but if cheap was the only criteria... NO IPHONES WOULD SELL ANYWHERE until they were the same price as the lowest priced Gingerbread based plastic smartphone with a stylus and AAA batteries.
It's a VALUE proposition.
The logic is that buyer X values the iPhone at $700, but it's selling at $725, and he only has $650... rational thinking would be is a lot are buying <<$600 phones phones to 'get by' until they can afford an iPhone (spend 400 save $250). Now if I have $650, and the phone is sold at $650... I buy it... .because I sense more value ($700) than what I spend ($650... I saved $50). It's an Asian Market thing;-)
Yes, lots of people are buying high end phones around $600... but those may have a particular value prop.... e.g. large screen, a color, a particular app, local expertise [my brother has the same phone], or even brand loyalty (in the Asia markets, you buy a 'corporation' your house is all Mitsubishi, Sony, LG, Samsung, etc, and stores are set up that way, like Mid-HighEnd wares are done in the Macy's, Saks, and the like [Polo RL, Levis, Michael Kors, etc. in the US dept stores]).
The Apple Logic is getting them into the ecosystem to enchant them and lock them in... their appleID, their music. their favorite apps, the subtle interface things they don't want to unlearn and learn again... Apple's market share magic(trick) is retention. Using published numbers: if 76% of all iPhone users stay iPhone users (let's say that's 76% of 250M current iPhone users WW), and 24% of all WW non-iPhone owners WANT their next phone to be an iPhone. (remember... a Billion non-iPhones are to be sold this year... and that's where i got my 25%/2.5%), making those people see a 'deal' may be all you need to get them in and then keep 3/4s of them every buying cycle. Eventually, equilibrium will occur around 30% market share for Apple, and these are the 'best' users (spend the most in iTunes, make developers happy, make retailers who sell via the web happy). if you have ~30% of the market, selling 3-4 phones, with lower costs to market and make... that works. As long as Samsung* doesn't have over 50% the market (go LENOVO! go LG! Go HTC!, Go Hauwaie!), and is spending more on making and selling, and discounting phones to maintain that market.
Just bargain basementing phones.... This is what the Analysts are screaming for... TAKE A LOSS NOW! ('Do Amazon'!!!) to win market share NOW. Apple is playing it slightly differently in that it sees WINNING as not headcount, but spend, and is willing to cultivate the long game maximize spend now, and spend later (when phones do effectively go to commodity).
*I really do think Apple planned for this market model... although my guess is they thought it would be Nokia instead of Samsung. and Mego/WinMob instead of Android. Blackberry was an outside chance at being the market lead, but they scroowed the pooch badly, and they had only one value prop... the fixed keyboard... not a scalable model in a world where touch typing is a very esoteric skill, and keyboards change in each market.
That's a lot of words for saying it's a limited market.
For the UK mid contract market - the £28/m - the sticker cost has just dropped by 61%. If you sacrifice 8G.
That brings lots of people online.
I'm surprised no one ever busted Coke on that New Coke ruse. It was clear to me at the time that they:
1. Made a New Coke that was said to taste more like Pepsi.
At least according to what I read, New Coke tested better than both Coke Classic and Pepsi.
[URL=http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/165527/rumor-apple-to-launch-lower-capacity-8gb-iphone-5c-this-week/80#post_2489918]http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/165527/rumor-apple-to-launch-lower-capacity-8gb-iphone-5c-this-week/80#post_2489918[/URL]
Even more sadly, Nokia is nipping at Apple's heals here.
Main reason: very few if any specials aka "snäppchen" with Apple gear, and the media couldn't get enough out of chopping Apple any chance they had in 2011-12. Apple is portrayed as the largest rip off company the world has ever seen and is the cause of everything from global warming, cancer, to the fall in birthrates to poor Chinese children workers. Again sadly, I'm not joking or exagerrating.
The 8gb 5c will still not sell here. Those that know and trust Apple stuff, have the money to purchase top of the line, fully loaded. The same way they purchase their cars.
I think you are wrong. I also think that this response is based on internal surveys Apple uses where they divide the smartphone market into real smart phones and feature phones and are coming second in the UK, Germany etcetera. Clearly Germany is price conscious - hence the Lumina. Now people can get an iPhone at a cheap sticker price and on a normal 35€ ish contract. That's big.
It's almost like you can't tell an estimate from a survey of an existing market.
Neil Hughes, I see you are perpetuating the lie that 'TimCook admitted that iPhone 5c sales hadn't found the level of sales the company hoped it would.' He said no such thing. Another little victory for the devil.