Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple's 5.5-inch 'iPhone 6' faces production issues, launch may be pushed to 2

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  • Reply 61 of 128
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RadarTheKat View Post

     
    But, but... All the videos and images that show the front panel component and show strong evidence that it's made of sapphire are videos and images of a 4.7" display component.


    We don't know do we? Gorilla Glass 3 could be a really solid material as well. It might make sense to use sapphire only in a more limited release such as a premium 5.5 device while they ramp up production.

  • Reply 62 of 128
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

     
    It's just click bait pure and simple. Put the word breaking in bright red and people will click thinking it's something important. I guess I don't consider Ming-Chi Kuo's research notes to be that important.


    I suppose I could say the same about the "Breaking" tag on the previous story about Apple refuting China's security propaganda. I really don't care what bullshit the Chinese government releases in the their state controlled media.

     

    BTW you should probably be using my AI scriptlet. It makes navigating AI painless. Much less aggravation since apparently you are easily annoyed 

  • Reply 63 of 128
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member
    Translation: there never was a 5.5" model
  • Reply 64 of 128
    yojimbo007yojimbo007 Posts: 1,163member
    Ok who wants the stock down that is paying mr Kuo?
  • Reply 65 of 128
    tnsftnsf Posts: 203member

    Because Apple has no experience making larger displays and larger cases, right?

  • Reply 66 of 128
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,526moderator
    mstone wrote: »
    We don't know do we? Gorilla Glass 3 could be a really solid material as well. It might make sense to use sapphire only in a more limited release such as a premium 5.5 device while they ramp up production.

    Either you haven't been following closely the Apple-related news (I do because I have >$750k in the stock and call spread positions) or you're simply not much of a betting man. The clear bet to place would be that a 4.7" model is in early production and that its display cover will be sapphire. No clear bet can be made with respect to a 5.5" model. See my note on this (message #41, above).
  • Reply 67 of 128
    mpantonempantone Posts: 1,903member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    But why is this considered breaking? Usually breaking is associated with something big or important (though cable news frequently abuses the use of it). I don't see how a research note from Ming-Chi Kuo is important.

    It's about page views, not the accuracy of the news source nor the veracity of the declaration. Basically anything here at AI can be "breaking."

     

    You seem to not understand that this is the way 21st century online media works.

     

    Have you been using the Internet very long?

  • Reply 68 of 128
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RadarTheKat View Post

     
    I do because I have >$750k in the stock and call spread positions


    Good for you. I would argue that your investment is reasonable even if it turns out that the 4.7 does not have sapphire.  Apple stock is not going to be affected by imperceptible material differences. Only uber geeks will be discussing this.

  • Reply 69 of 128
    paul94544paul94544 Posts: 1,027member
    must be on the take from Samsung: why, because he follows the same tactic, try every possible combination and see which one sells, That way he can not be wrong.
  • Reply 70 of 128
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post



    must be on the take from Samsung: why, because he follows the same tactic, try every possible combination and see which one sells, That way he can not be wrong.

    And how do you account for his astonishingly accurate predictions? He has been on the money and very positive toward Apple for years. What do you base your assertion on?

  • Reply 71 of 128
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    rogifan wrote: »
    Why would they use different materials.
    A lot of possible reasons come to mind:
    1. they may want to try out new manufacturing methods before risking the entire product line.
    2. weight may be an issue even with aluminum.
    3. they may want to integrate technologies into the case rear that are substantially different than what they have planned for the smaller machine.
    4. the May be using additional RF bands that require different materials to implement additional antennas
    5. because.


    They don't with the iPads. Unless they're going to do some dickish move where they make the 5.5" phone "premium" and force people to have to make a compromise rather than just picking the screen size they want.
    When I see things like this I really question the mental state of the person writing it. You assume that people choosing a smaller iPhone would see it as a compromise. As it is I already am seeing signs that the desire for massive cell phones is cooling rapidly, many would see a large phone as a compromise in and of itself. Let's face it the cell industry spent years shrinking cell phones from brick size to something that fits into the palm of your hand so I don't believe demand is what people think it is for these massive phones.
    Of course that would be the complete opposite of what they did with iPads.

    Huh! IPAds are nicely appointed right now. I would expect better performance out of Air simply due to its size.
  • Reply 72 of 128
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,503member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by RadarTheKat View Post



    Okay, let's just consider the past couple months. We've seen a stream of rumors, pictures, and even videos highlighting the front panel in the 4.7" size, with the credibility and realism growing steadily over time. When you see this type of progression it's a good sign of the existence of the underlying product and its pending release. It would not be a stretch to have high confidence at this point that a 4.7" iPhone is in production with the usual Sept introduction event and ship date. But throughout the last couple of months of building credibility in a 4.7" model, we've only heard peripheral noise about a 5.5" model. This suggests one of three possibilities, I'll list in order from least probable to most probable:



    1. Apple is planning a 5.5" iPhone 6 and, unlike the 4.7" model which would use the same screen technology, the same metal and color process in its case, and the same sapphire technology in its front panel, Apple is inexplicably having difficulties with these on one model but not the other. I conjecture that the same basic technology would be used in both because that is simply what would make sense. Just as Apple added the A7 to the iPad mini and gave it the same pixel count as the Air (even though that means the less expensive mini is just as capable and has a higher pixel density than its larger, more expensive cousin). So this is the least probable scenario.



    2. A more probable scenario, but still in my opinion not very probable, is that the 5.5" model is nothing but a rumor. Something that got added on by over zealous sources once evidence surfaced of the 4.7" model. The rumors traveled together and the growing validity of one carried the other along for the ride. But no concrete evidence has been shown, from my monitoring of the news, that a 5.5" model has been coming along in the production phases we have seen evidence for of a 4.7" model. It may simply be a rumor that found life in the shadow of validity the the 4.7" model has exhibited.



    3. In my opinion, the most probable scenario is that there will be a 5.5" model but Apple always planned to phase it into production and into its release schedule following the 4.7" model. I believe Apple will introduce both at the same time, in September, then announce availability of the 4.7" model the following week and availability of the 5.5" model 'later in the calendar year' or 'by Christmas' for example. This would make a great deal of sense to me because Apple will need time to get to supply/demand balance on the 4.7" model (which will be the more popular of the two) but will want to avoid any potential backlash from customers that would occur if they didn't also announce that another model/choice were coming on the near horizon. (A customer who would prefer a phablet model should know one is coming so that he doesn't lock himself into a two-year contract with a 4.7" model having thought that was the only new model available.) This course of action may also capture some potential Samsung customers who will wait a few more months to get an iPhone phablet rather than purchasing the expected Galaxy Note 4 when it arrives in the fall. Apple will deliver a one-two punch to Samsung with this approach without fear of not being able to deliver on huge initial demand of two new iPhone models at the same time.

     

    I'm with you on #3, where Apple provides various size models and the 5.5 phased in after the initial roll out of the 4.7.

  • Reply 73 of 128
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Either you haven't been following closely the Apple-related news (I do because I have >$750k in the stock and call spread positions) or you're simply not much of a betting man.
    Proud of yourself?

    I really dont see any reason to gamble here or look at it as gambling. At least not in the context of the screen because it makes no difference at all to me if it has Gorila Glass or Sapphire or some sort of lamination of the two. It simply isn't a check point with regards to my willingness to buy a iPhone this year. More RAM, Flash and CPU horse power at a given price point is though, in case you are wondering.
    The clear bet to place would be that a 4.7" model is in early production and that its display cover will be sapphire. No clear bet can be made with respect to a 5.5" model. See my note on this (message #41, above).

    It is sad that you see this as an opportunity to gamble. Especially when you are focused on a feature that means nothing.
  • Reply 74 of 128
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    For all we know the leaks seen so far could be orchestrated by Apple to fuel discussions in the forums. Leak info about one machine and the larger one becomes the one more thing surprise.
    Okay, let's just consider the past couple months. We've seen a stream of rumors, pictures, and even videos highlighting the front panel in the 4.7" size, with the credibility and realism growing steadily over time. When you see this type of progression it's a good sign of the existence of the underlying product and its pending release. It would not be a stretch to have high confidence at this point that a 4.7" iPhone is in production with the usual Sept introduction event and ship date. But throughout the last couple of months of building credibility in a 4.7" model, we've only heard peripheral noise about a 5.5" model. This suggests one of three possibilities, I'll list in order from least probable to most probable:

    1. Apple is planning a 5.5" iPhone 6 and, unlike the 4.7" model which would use the same screen technology, the same metal and color process in its case, and the same sapphire technology in its front panel, Apple is inexplicably having difficulties with these on one model but not the other. I conjecture that the same basic technology would be used in both because that is simply what would make sense.
    Actually Apple is pushing the state of the art for growing Sapphire. It might not be possible to mass produce Sapphire ingots large enough to make windows for such a large phone.
    Just as Apple added the A7 to the iPad mini and gave it the same pixel count as the Air (even though that means the less expensive mini is just as capable and has a higher pixel density than its larger, more expensive cousin). So this is the least probable scenario.
    mini also runs a bit slower even if it does have an A7. Physical size is a huge factor here as it directly impacts battery size.

    2. A more probable scenario, but still in my opinion not very probable, is that the 5.5" model is nothing but a rumor. Something that got added on by over zealous sources once evidence surfaced of the 4.7" model. The rumors traveled together and the growing validity of one carried the other along for the ride. But no concrete evidence has been shown, from my monitoring of the news, that a 5.5" model has been coming along in the production phases we have seen evidence for of a 4.7" model. It may simply be a rumor that found life in the shadow of validity the the 4.7" model has exhibited.
    [/qoute]
    Possibly or the 5.5" device is real but not an iPhone.

    3. In my opinion, the most probable scenario is that there will be a 5.5" model but Apple always planned to phase it into production and into its release schedule following the 4.7" model. I believe Apple will introduce both at the same time, in September, then announce availability of the 4.7" model the following week and availability of the 5.5" model 'later in the calendar year' or 'by Christmas' for example.
    I don't like this one actually! Most companies simply don't want to do product intros around Christmas time. This especially in the case of consumer oriented products. There are to many factors at play that could lead to consumer dissatisfaction.
    This would make a great deal of sense to me because Apple will need time to get to supply/demand balance on the 4.7" model (which will be the more popular of the two) but will want to avoid any potential backlash from customers that would occur if they didn't also announce that another model/choice were coming on the near horizon. (A customer who would prefer a phablet model should know one is coming so that he doesn't lock himself into a two-year contract with a 4.7" model having thought that was the only new model available.) This course of action may also capture some potential Samsung customers who will wait a few more months to get an iPhone phablet rather than purchasing the expected Galaxy Note 4 when it arrives in the fall. Apple will deliver a one-two punch to Samsung with this approach without fear of not being able to deliver on huge initial demand of two new iPhone models at the same time.

    Galaxy Notes aren't selling that we'll so I don't think Apple cares one way or the other. Frankly I think we are already on the downward slope as far as the phablet craze goes. I could really see Apple punting when it comes to a 5.5" cell phone.
  • Reply 75 of 128
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,503member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mstone View Post

     

    Do we know that the 5.5 uses the same materials? Hint - No we don't!


     

    Unless we are talking the successor to the 5c the materials are the same, even for the smaller 5c form factor and some future 6c at 5.5".

  • Reply 76 of 128
    andysolandysol Posts: 2,506member
    mstone wrote: »
    And how do you account for his astonishingly accurate predictions? He has been on the money and very positive toward Apple for years. What do you base your assertion on?

    You are Kuo aren't you? You've been so far up his ass for the past two years.

    He's had one unseen/uncommon and accurate prediction- And almost a dozen completely inaccurate ones. Saying an iPhone is coming in September does not a genius make. Additionally- it's obvious there won't be a 5.5 the same time there is a 4.7- if at all. We haven't seen one leak. It's simple, really. He isn't Nostradamus.
  • Reply 77 of 128

    It seems these rumors have served a good purpose, likely stalling upgrades from people looking for a larger phone (samsung's latest quarter didn't go too well for them, despite their obnoxious ad blitz, pobrecitos). Maybe the 5.5 was never intended to be released this year, which is why there's no rush to sort out the manufacturing issues. Most people looking for a phablet will likely settle for the 4.7; for those who must have the 5.5, what's a few more months?

  • Reply 78 of 128
    bushman4bushman4 Posts: 843member
    Last year before the iPhone 5s came out I remember the same 'production issues' story being mentioned. Tim Cook has really doubled down on secrecy. and there's really no way to substantiate this rumor
  • Reply 79 of 128
    vaporlandvaporland Posts: 358member
    georgeip5 wrote: »
    He analyses, but who said he could be right and who said he could be wrong. iPad Mini displays have had issues with productions. If Apple signed a contract that would force samsung to make screens for the next, I don't k ow lets say 10 years, then the issue would be solved.

    From what I remember the first iPhone 5s's and iPhone 5c's had a simir issue with their touch screens. I think this can be solved but the chasy is what I don't understand. How deferent can it be compared to the iPhone we have currently. Maybe it's a new material their using.

    It damaged my brain to read this post.

    It contained neither a single coherently expressed thought, nor a single correctly typed sentence...

    Are you going for the "Child Left Behind Of The Year Award"?

    You give home skoolin' a bad reputation.

    On the very outside chance this was sarcasm, touché.

    Otherwise, "Blogger please!"

    It's called medical marijuana for a reason... Don't bogart that joint. Stick to PBR.
  • Reply 80 of 128

    I will get eyeballs

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