As mysterious minivan sightings proliferate, rumored 'Apple Car' seen as $50B US opportunity

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 105

    Agree with many other posts here. That whole 10% number is completely pulled out of the air.

    According to some quick research (which is apparently much more than a highly paid consultant/idiot quoted in this article can do), the best selling vehicle in the United States is the Ford F150. About 54,000 new ones were sold in January.

     

    Any guesses as to the percentage of total vehicle sales?

     

    About four percent.

     

    So this idiot analyst thinks Apple can sell TWO AND A HALF TIMES more vehicles per year than the current reigning champion?

    Wow. That dude needs a serious head examination.

  • Reply 22 of 105

    An Apple car? This is in the less than 5% chance of ever happening. It's far more likely to be mapping and software related. I was at a new car show over the weekend and what became quickly clear is that car software is almost uniformly dreadful. Apple has CarPlay, which still has a long way to go, but why compete in a low profilt market making cars when you can see your driver interface to dozens of car manufacturers?

  • Reply 23 of 105
    straskstrask Posts: 107member
    !0% of the US market would put Apple ahead of Honda and only slightly behind Chrysler in terms of market share. Apple would have to produce high volume, low profit margin products in order to reach numbers like this. There is nothing in Apple's DNA to imply any interest or skill in this type of product. There are plenty of products Apple could develop that would be used in cars and require testing on the road. It is far more likely that Apple is working on one of those. If they are building a car, it is more likely that they would aim at 1% of the market, not 10%. Maybe Gene Munster and Appleinsider should stick to talking about subjects of which they have some knowledge.
  • Reply 24 of 105
    God dammit, this is the stupidest rumor since Apple switching to Intel.
  • Reply 25 of 105
    Gene needs to calm down.
  • Reply 26 of 105

    IMHO, these vans might have something to do with self-driving cars, but I suspect it has more to do with either Maps or a deep and broad effort to design a transportation-specific iOS product that will allow many manufacturers to "outsource" something they suck at. In car software applications.

     

    Look at 1) how poorly designed these software applications are, even from the "best" automobile manufacturers in the world, 2) how quickly these systems become dated or even obsolete, and, finally, 3) how difficult it is to have these systems upgraded quickly, inexpensively and meaningfully (read, free,without a visit to the dealer, and are on the level of a PC or smartphone in regard to software upgrades).

     

     

    The opportunity to offer a transportation-specific version of iOS to _every_ manufacturer of automobiles is far greater than if Apple were to go Tesla's route, for example.

     

  • Reply 27 of 105
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,838member

    My prediction:

     

    Apple won't be selling cars. 

     

    Apple will be selling extremely convenient (bordering on luxurious) and affordable transportation to customers participating in Apple's ecosystem. In other words -- transportation will be an iPhone accessory. Uber, only better and cheaper, and for Apple customers only. 

     

    Apple will design the electric vehicles that provide the transportation but contract out the manufacturing. The vehicles will be stylish but practical. They will be charged using 100% renewable energy sources that Apple will secure at low prices through large pre-purchases. They will eventually be driverless, but I could imagine an attendant could be present if needed. 

  • Reply 28 of 105
    With fossil fuels so cheap now, this couldn't be a worse time for developing an electric car.

    Driverless cars are not happening any time soon. Electric vehicles are hopelessly niche and will remain so for a long time. The Apple Watch is not going to replace the iPhone, nor any wearable. Siri or voice is not the future. We will be stuck with our iPhones, iPads and Macs as our computers for a very long time.

    This is still the Age of Steve Jobs, and there is nothing out there or in the pipeline to suggest that the 2020s won't be also.

    Fantasising is fun for some people. Reality is a little more mundane.
  • Reply 29 of 105

    Imagine a 50% reduction in insurance costs, time to do work on your commute, or play games, or read a book.  The average American has what a 30 minute commute?  Twice a day, times 5 to 10 times a week.  This adds up to some serious hours of productivity.  Sure I can imagine older Americans not wanting to do this.  Everyone under the age of 30 or interested in saving money and time will look seriously at this option.  

  • Reply 30 of 105

    I would agree with what you are saying if this was due to market in 6 months.  Otherwise, given the slope of battery technology improvement and the obvious economic benefits from improved batteries, I would estimate that in 5 years electric cars will begin to replace gasoline cars.  Self driving cars will be an enormous economic benefit.

     

    The funny part here is Mr Musk must have been very convincing when he tried to get Apple to invest in the battery part of his conglomerate.  Maybe not so convincing about the financial terms, but very convincing about the economic need. 

  • Reply 31 of 105
    tundraboytundraboy Posts: 1,844member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dv8or View Post



    10% of the car market? I think thats a bit of a stretch for a first time carmaker... I am an Apple fan but that is a ridiculous number.... Think of all the different models and car makers out there...



    I don't know what the market share is of the largest auto makers so 10% share might be insanely optimistic but then again, Steve was talking about what, 3% of the mobile phone market when iPhone first came out?  Here's one thing though, there is no luxury minivan in the market right now and that's what Apple seems to be targeting.  Pure electric, aluminum and kevlar body, design by Newsom, --there's an army of loyal Apple fans, affluent and bulging wallets open, out there who will gobble this up.

  • Reply 33 of 105
    tundraboytundraboy Posts: 1,844member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost View Post



    With fossil fuels so cheap now, this couldn't be a worse time for developing an electric car.



    Driverless cars are not happening any time soon. Electric vehicles are hopelessly niche and will remain so for a long time. The Apple Watch is not going to replace the iPhone, nor any wearable. Siri or voice is not the future. We will be stuck with our iPhones, iPads and Macs as our computers for a very long time.



    This is still the Age of Steve Jobs, and there is nothing out there or in the pipeline to suggest that the 2020s won't be also.



    Fantasising is fun for some people. Reality is a little more mundane.



    You're not a fan of going where the puck will be obviously.  You have completely omitted greenhouse gases and climate change on your prediction out there.  Even though in the US a majority of people, including Republicans, agree that greenhouse gases and climate change have to be tackled by the government.  It's just that the fossil fuel companies and their lackeys in government are using a loud, expensive megaphone.   And when millennials and post-millennials enter prime voting and income-earning age, the needle on climate change will move so fast it will spin your head around twice.  

     

    Apple is a long view company.  I like where they are headed on this.

  • Reply 34 of 105

    This will be Apple's Uber with driverless cars

  • Reply 35 of 105
    tundraboy wrote: »

    You're not a fan of going where the puck will be obviously.  You have completely omitted greenhouse gases and climate change on your prediction out there.  Even though in the US a majority of people, including Republicans, agree that greenhouse gases and climate change have to be tackled by the government.  It's just that the fossil fuel companies and their lackeys in government are using a loud, expensive megaphone.   And when millennials and post-millennials enter prime voting and income-earning age, the needle on climate change will move so fast it will spin your head around twice.  

    Apple is a long view company.  I like where they are headed on this.

    "Even though in the US a majority of people, including Republicans, agree that greenhouse gases and climate change have to be tackled by the government."

    Not accurate. The government is often a blunt instrument wielded by blunt instruments.
  • Reply 36 of 105
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dv8or View Post



    10% of the car market? I think thats a bit of a stretch for a first time carmaker... I am an Apple fan but that is a ridiculous number.... Think of all the different models and car makers out there...

    "It's sort of a funny question. Would I trade 96% of the market for 4% of the market? (Laughter.) I want to have products that appeal to everybody.

    Now we'll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.

    Let's take phones first. Right now, we're selling millions and millions and millions of phones a year.  Apple is selling zero phones a year.  In six months, they'll have the most expensive phone by far ever in the marketplace...

    Watch..."

    Steve Ballmer comments on the iPhone entering the phone market in 2007

  • Reply 37 of 105
    dv8or wrote: »
    10% of the car market? I think thats a bit of a stretch for a first time carmaker... I am an Apple fan but that is a ridiculous number.... Think of all the different models and car makers out there...

    Yeah, if you think some people hate Apple now, wait til Apple tries to sell a car, assuming that is the outcome of project Titan. Cars are marketed very differently. They could only win over a demographic.
  • Reply 38 of 105
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by GadgetCanadaV2 View Post

     

    "It's sort of a funny question. Would I trade 96% of the market for 4% of the market? (Laughter.) I want to have products that appeal to everybody.

    Now we'll get a chance to go through this again in phones and music players. There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.

    Let's take phones first. Right now, we're selling millions and millions and millions of phones a year.  Apple is selling zero phones a year.  In six months, they'll have the most expensive phone by far ever in the marketplace...

    Watch..."

    Steve Ballmer comments on the iPhone entering the phone market in 2007


     

    Using a quote from Steve Ballmer does not enhance your argument.

  • Reply 39 of 105
    Sorry but Foxconn doesn't make cars.
  • Reply 40 of 105
    pmz wrote: »
    Self-driving cars on the road are not in our lifetime.

    It is not a matter of technical hurdles...those will be solved eventually. Its a matter of demand, and public cooperation. No one has any interest in it. TO even the most tech savvy people, self driving cars as anything more than a vague concept, are an eyeroll.

    And then there's the Malcolm effect. Everyone that's behind this idea, so preoccupied with whether or they could that they didn't stop to think if they should. And anytime they are questions with "Why do this again?" they fire back with the meaningless accident/death statistics that result from driving.

    Driving is dangerous. LIFE is dangerous. Its all part of the experience. Driving is a huge gateway to freedom and responsibility for most people. Its a milestone in life. Its serves its purpose in the coming of age of youth.

    If any technology company is worried about making a dent in automobile injuries and deaths, perhaps they should be focusing their efforts on REAL things that have REAL ability to make a difference....like designing vehicles that are safer, or educating the public on safer driving, or building new road infrastructure that is preventative to the most deadly types of accidents. Instead of focusing on a stupid pipe dream that will not be widely accepted enough to replace the current norm.

    Like I said, maybe, MAYBE in 100 years when all of the current generation is gone, is their a chance at changing the societal norm of driving your own vehicle. But in that time, so many other improvements could be made to make driving safer, if only the companies with the ability would focus on that instead of a fantasy.

    sounds more like you're arguing against creating Terminators than self-driving cars.
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