Side note: Buffet is not a normal investor. He's the guy who said that if he's gone, then his wife's funds will be 90/10 S&P500/bond funds. Most everyone can't take that risk, but if he's widow has 50B in funds or whatever, no sweat off her back. I don't know why he's so concentrated in a few stock funds. Has he said why?
Buffet has teams of people who do his research. He's not out there himself shaking down companies. He's doing due diligence.
Really, you can compare yourself to him? You don't have the money or assets or organization that can go out and do what he does.
He's not like you or me. He doesn't sit at home in his free time and read the WSJ and other rags to figure out what to do.
Please, tell me otherwise. Buffet is awesome, but we are not equal to him in his situation.
Not every decision by Buffet is golden... Remember BYD? That hasn't exactly taken the electric car market by storm.
Side note: Buffet is not a normal investor. He's the guy who said that if he's gone, then his wife's funds will be 90/10 S&P500/bond funds. Most everyone can't take that risk, but if he's widow has 50B in funds or whatever, no sweat off her back. I don't know why he's so concentrated in a few stock funds. Has he said why?
Buffet has teams of people who do his research. He's not out there himself shaking down companies. He's doing due diligence.
Really, you can compare yourself to him? You don't have the money or assets or organization that can go out and do what he does.
He's not like you or me. He doesn't sit at home in his free time and read the WSJ and other rags to figure out what to do.
Please, tell me otherwise. Buffet is awesome, but we are not equal to him in his situation.
Good for you.
Buffet shows his proof that "non-managed" index funds beat "managed" index funds at least 80% of the time:
Sure, if you are good at reading balance sheets, then great, and good for you to make a lot of money. But even fund managers fail at least 80% of the time. Or at least their funds do.
Buffet didn't see the world falling off a cliff a few years ago. He's good, but not perfect. Who is.
People on this board get all defensive (offensive) when others post that go against what the believe then attack others. They look like buffoons that act like they know they know the future. Some of us have never predicted the future. We have only said you can't predict where stocks will go. That is not a proof. It is an opinion. Have you tried to predict other stock? And been accurate? UP. Down. Up. Down. It's like trying to predict the weather. You can't know every variable. Global change? I wonder if anyone really knows it is man-made.
Funds investing is a waste of your time and money.
I kind of agree with you. If you do not understand the securities markets, and you do not understand the industries and companies you are investing in, and are reduced to spouting inanities about it, then do not invest because it would really be a waste of your time and money.
I admire your enthusiasm, but wouldn't that absolutely require
an incredibly well-received <span style="line-height:1.4em;">introduction of ?Watch? </span>
<span style="line-height:1.4em;">(Which some of us - you included - regularly gainsay.)</span>
And a lot more momentum for ?Pay as well?
Well, I'm assuming that when he says "by May", he's saying that tongue in cheek.
In reality, Apple trades at just about 15.5 times 2015 earnings, where the Fortune 500, averages 17.7 times 2015 earnings. That means that Apple has a ways to go to just get to the average. And if they're considered to be a high quality company, and thus a high quality investment, they could go above that. If they just get to that number, that's an 18% upside. That would bring them very close to a trillion. I don't see that happening too quickly, but depending on how the next three quarters go this calender year go, it could happen.
But more likely it would happen next year, if everything goes well. If Apple adds another 15% to their sales this year, which, hopefully, is a bit conservative, then that allows another 15% stock price rise without raising the p/e. Just think in terms of sales and net rises along with stock appreciation, and you'll see that this can happen in the not too far away future.
The problem with Apple va the Market is that as a consumer company, there are fears thT their fortunes can vary too much depending on minor issues such as uptake on upgraded devices. So it's thought that next year, iPhone sales won't leap nearly as far as they did this year, because this year, Apple made the switch to the larger models. Then there is the dice problem of iPad sales. Apple needs to stem those drops, but it may be impossible for a while, because it's possibly the 8" model that is being canibalized by phablets.
Then there are questions about the watch sales, Windows PC. If these things can get straightened out, then a major continuation to the stock rise is assured. If not, well, who knows?
It puts them in the middle, but how much are they really going to earn from the service? It seems to me the fraction they get is small. Not inconsequential since it all counts, but small enough that it won't ever be a blip on their revenue and profit sheets. That said, I have not done the work to see how many electronic payments are made per year + how much is sent from magnetic swipe cards and online card payments today to create a scale of how much they could possibly earn.
I just read that the mobile payments industry in the USA is expected to reach $800 billion in 2018. What happens with Apple depends on how much of the payment marketshare they can hold onto. If they keep 50%, then at about a 1% fee per sale, that's about $4 billion that year. That would mostly be profit for Apple. That's very important, because if it's say, 80% profit, then that would be $3.2 billion. With Apple net profit being about 21%, that would be the equivalent of about $14 billion in sales, not an inconsiderable amount.
And as $800 billion is just about 10% of total retail sales in the USA, that would mean that it's possible for Apple to eventually get to $40 billion a year, for a net of $32 billion. Now, that's not pocket change
But Apple would need to hold a large percentage of mobile payments to get that.
And, of course, that's just in the USA. How much more worldwide? Lots!
I disagree. I know many people with good financial background that are making consistent returns better than index funds. Personally my background is Accounting/Finance/CPA so I can read SEC reports and get a very understanding of a companies financial health (as long as there is no fraud, like GTAT). But I know many others without a financial background who have done very good in investing in individual stocks. Learning how to invest in companies is not rocket science like Wall Street wants you to believe.
What you are saying is EXACTLY what Wall Street wants you to believe. Give us YOUR money for a FEE and we will invest it better than you can. More people should take control of their investements and stopping giving BILLIONS in fees to Wall Street.
A classic example was the .com bubble. Most of my associates knew a ton of .com stocks were due to crash. We all avoided those stocks and were saved from getting smashed in 2000. While Wall Street was taking people's money and investing in POS companies like Pets.com and Toilets.com.
Personally 75% of my investments are in index funds and the rest are in individual stocks. But that changes from time to time when I see no brainer investments like when Apple was $400 last year. When that happened I moved Apple up to nearly 50% of my investments.
In a way, he's right, you know. Buffet doesn't just buy stock, in addition to that, he buys entire companies, then runs them. That's quite a bit different than investing, what amounts to, a tiny amount of money.
He's also made major mistakes, by his own statements. And he stays away from technology. He could have bought Apple years ago, but he's never done so, even though he consistently states that he admires Apple above most others.
Comments
I wonder if he ever invested in rabbits.
Side note: Buffet is not a normal investor. He's the guy who said that if he's gone, then his wife's funds will be 90/10 S&P500/bond funds. Most everyone can't take that risk, but if he's widow has 50B in funds or whatever, no sweat off her back. I don't know why he's so concentrated in a few stock funds. Has he said why?
Buffet has teams of people who do his research. He's not out there himself shaking down companies. He's doing due diligence.
Really, you can compare yourself to him? You don't have the money or assets or organization that can go out and do what he does.
He's not like you or me. He doesn't sit at home in his free time and read the WSJ and other rags to figure out what to do.
Please, tell me otherwise. Buffet is awesome, but we are not equal to him in his situation.
Good for you.
Buffet shows his proof that "non-managed" index funds beat "managed" index funds at least 80% of the time:
http://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Common-Sense-Investing/dp/0470102101
Sure, if you are good at reading balance sheets, then great, and good for you to make a lot of money. But even fund managers fail at least 80% of the time. Or at least their funds do.
Buffet didn't see the world falling off a cliff a few years ago. He's good, but not perfect. Who is.
People on this board get all defensive (offensive) when others post that go against what the believe then attack others. They look like buffoons that act like they know they know the future. Some of us have never predicted the future. We have only said you can't predict where stocks will go. That is not a proof. It is an opinion. Have you tried to predict other stock? And been accurate? UP. Down. Up. Down. It's like trying to predict the weather. You can't know every variable. Global change? I wonder if anyone really knows it is man-made.
Adios,
Funds investing is a waste of your time and money.
I kind of agree with you. If you do not understand the securities markets, and you do not understand the industries and companies you are investing in, and are reduced to spouting inanities about it, then do not invest because it would really be a waste of your time and money.
Well, I'm assuming that when he says "by May", he's saying that tongue in cheek.
In reality, Apple trades at just about 15.5 times 2015 earnings, where the Fortune 500, averages 17.7 times 2015 earnings. That means that Apple has a ways to go to just get to the average. And if they're considered to be a high quality company, and thus a high quality investment, they could go above that. If they just get to that number, that's an 18% upside. That would bring them very close to a trillion. I don't see that happening too quickly, but depending on how the next three quarters go this calender year go, it could happen.
But more likely it would happen next year, if everything goes well. If Apple adds another 15% to their sales this year, which, hopefully, is a bit conservative, then that allows another 15% stock price rise without raising the p/e. Just think in terms of sales and net rises along with stock appreciation, and you'll see that this can happen in the not too far away future.
The problem with Apple va the Market is that as a consumer company, there are fears thT their fortunes can vary too much depending on minor issues such as uptake on upgraded devices. So it's thought that next year, iPhone sales won't leap nearly as far as they did this year, because this year, Apple made the switch to the larger models. Then there is the dice problem of iPad sales. Apple needs to stem those drops, but it may be impossible for a while, because it's possibly the 8" model that is being canibalized by phablets.
Then there are questions about the watch sales, Windows PC. If these things can get straightened out, then a major continuation to the stock rise is assured. If not, well, who knows?
I just read that the mobile payments industry in the USA is expected to reach $800 billion in 2018. What happens with Apple depends on how much of the payment marketshare they can hold onto. If they keep 50%, then at about a 1% fee per sale, that's about $4 billion that year. That would mostly be profit for Apple. That's very important, because if it's say, 80% profit, then that would be $3.2 billion. With Apple net profit being about 21%, that would be the equivalent of about $14 billion in sales, not an inconsiderable amount.
And as $800 billion is just about 10% of total retail sales in the USA, that would mean that it's possible for Apple to eventually get to $40 billion a year, for a net of $32 billion. Now, that's not pocket change
But Apple would need to hold a large percentage of mobile payments to get that.
And, of course, that's just in the USA. How much more worldwide? Lots!
In a way, he's right, you know. Buffet doesn't just buy stock, in addition to that, he buys entire companies, then runs them. That's quite a bit different than investing, what amounts to, a tiny amount of money.
He's also made major mistakes, by his own statements. And he stays away from technology. He could have bought Apple years ago, but he's never done so, even though he consistently states that he admires Apple above most others.