Apple Financial Warning: Poor sales

124

Comments

  • Reply 61 of 99
    murbotmurbot Posts: 5,262member
    Well, I just gave Apple $2500 CDN tonight, hope that helps bring the stock up a little.



  • Reply 62 of 99
    [quote] I see no dispute over the numbers. It's a given in this thread, that Apple's sales are down, and it's known that the PowerMacs are not what they once were. Those of us that are hopeful are speculating about things that there are only rumors about (imagine that, on AppleInsider ) and so obviously there are no hard numbers.

    <hr></blockquote>



    Precisely. There is nobody on these forums that will deny that Apple's sales have remained stagnant over the last few years. Steve and folks significantly reduced the decline (under Gil, I think sales were declining around 30 - 40% a year); but Apple still hasn't grown at the same rate as the rest of the industry. Naturally, the optimism comes from rumors.



    The common sentiment appears to be that Apple sort of runs itself; or that Steve Jobs, Jon Ives and Fred Anderson are the only employees and operate in a glass bubble. As a former engineer at Apple (and not being Steve, Jon or Fred ), I can unequivocally state that this is not the case.



    Management is keenly aware of industry trends and what Apple's needs are. The reputation of Apple management basically running around with their heads implanted in their nether regions does not apply to the current management team, despite some missteps.



    It's obvious that the stagnation in the G4 is one of the greatest obstacles facing Apple right now. But switching to a new CPU architecture is not a trivial task, Apple has a huge amount of engineers working on Mac OS X for the Power PC; and has gone through a significant amount of effort getting it running. Furthermore, there is the issue of making developers undergo yet another transition. Moving to a new architecture would be the third burden that Apple would place on developers in a relatively short period of time (68k -&gt; PPC, Classic -&gt; Mac OS X, PPC -&gt; ???). It would be a fair assumption to say that a some developers would simply cease all Macintosh development.



    But whoever thinks that Apple is unaware, and not doing anything about the stagnation of the G4, underestimates Apple significantly. Sure, Apple hasn't acknowledged it publicly; but what do you expect? Steve is hardly going to get up on stage and say, "You know, the Power Macs really aren't worth as much as they used to be. I recommend you don't buy our product anymore." Should Apple reveal what it's future plans are, to instill some confidence in the market? Perhaps. Should they give some sign that they aren't just sitting around twiddling their thumbs, waiting for Motorola? Perhaps. But suffice it to say that the hundreds (upper hundreds) of hardware engineers on the hardware team; do NOT just sit around and play Quake III all day.



    I don't desire to get into a flame war, and apologize in advance if I have inadvertently said anything to offend anyone.
  • Reply 63 of 99
    [quote]Originally posted by murbot:

    <strong>Well, I just gave Apple $2500 CDN tonight, hope that helps bring the stock up a little.



    </strong><hr></blockquote>



    oooh, what'd ya buy?
  • Reply 64 of 99
    yurin8oryurin8or Posts: 120member
    i didn't realise apple was a charity. poor poor apple. maybe they can get some form of tax exemption from the gov...
  • Reply 65 of 99
    buonrottobuonrotto Posts: 6,368member
    [quote]Originally posted by Nostradamus:

    <strong>Given recent trends, there will be no Apple Computer in 5 years.</strong><hr></blockquote>



    Hey, that number's up from yesterday! Looks like they're doing something right!!
  • Reply 66 of 99
    amorphamorph Posts: 7,112member
    [quote]Originally posted by PipelineStall:

    <strong>As a former engineer at Apple</strong><hr></blockquote>



    So what the heck are you doing? Get back in there and cook us a G5!



  • Reply 67 of 99
    kecksykecksy Posts: 1,002member
    [quote]Originally posted by Nostradamus:

    <strong>Actually, Apple is doomed. Saying otherwise is absurd. There is no truth in between.



    Apple's demise poses only two questions: when and how.



    Given recent trends, there will be no Apple Computer in 5 years.</strong><hr></blockquote>



    You don't really believe that do you?



    The amount of pessimism I've seen on the boards lately is startling.



    There is no data suggesting that Apple is on the verge of collapse. Nor is there data suggesting that Apple is losing market share. You are overreacting. Apple is doing too many things right right now to all of the sudden vanish.



    Calm down. Take a deep breath.



    Faster G4s are on the way, and Apple will address the current weaknesses in its product line up soon.



    Have faith.



    [ 06-19-2002: Message edited by: Keeksy ]</p>
  • Reply 68 of 99
    [quote]Originally posted by Keeksy:

    <strong>



    You don't really believe that do you?



    The amount of pessimism I've seen on the boards lately is startling.



    There is no data suggesting that Apple is on the verge of collapse. Nor is there data suggesting that Apple is losing market share. You are overreacting. Apple is doing too many things right right now to all of the sudden vanish.



    Calm down. Take a deep breath.



    Faster G4s are on the way, and Apple will address the current weaknesses in its product line up soon.



    Have faith.



    [ 06-19-2002: Message edited by: Keeksy ]</strong><hr></blockquote>



    I'm sure Apple will attempt to address issues in their product lines. I'm sure they'll try their best. I'm also sure that most of it will be quite underwhelming compared to x86 offerings.



    The fact is, Apple needs to generate more profit and the key to that is revenue. Everyone knows Apple's PowerMac and PowerBook products are the revenue and profit generaters. Apple must create a compelling and competitive offering of thse products. If Apple loses this and is forced into a price war, as it seems now, they are doomed. Apple cannot compete on price for obvious reasons.



    Apple's revenues have been declining in 1995. If I recall correctly, at 1.4 billion-1.5 billion, Apple's recent revenue numbers are the lowest in the past 10 years. The last compelling PowerMac Apple had compared to x86 offerings was Yosemite, three years ago. Things have gone downhill since then?Apple had revenues of over 2 billion per quarter.



    And then there's MacOS X, disaster number #2. Creative and professional customers, faced with the choice of upgrading their aging Macs are finding that OS X will force them to transition to a totally new operating system with new hardware. Since they will have to upgrade their software anyway, and with Apple's hardware the way it is, many ponder if it's worth to buy overpriced and underpowered hardware to run an immature operating system when they could buy hardware twice as fast at half the cost from the x86 world.



    I'm not even sure if Apple is making a profit on the merits of it's products. I want to know how big of a role the interest they earn on that 4 billion in cash plays.



    [ 06-19-2002: Message edited by: Nostradamus ]</p>
  • Reply 69 of 99
    trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,464member
    I can't believe the amount of BS I am reading on this board.



    I have been a Mac user for longer than I care to admit because it makes me so darn old. I gave up 4094 colors so that I could use a Mac Classic because it kicked butt all over my Amiga in handling MIDI. The specs never matter as much as the solution.



    If anything this proves exactly why no one should listen to the various idiots posting in these forums about Apple dying and things of that nature. The whole tech industry is obsessed with "spec"-itus... and continues to bleed money out it's anus quarter after quarter.



    "It's because Apple's tech is too behind..."



    My butt...



    If this were the case then AMD would not be declaring a loss. Intel would not be lowering it's estimates by 20%.



    The real reason the tech industry is sucking is people are just plain tired. The whole PC side has a mentality of ship it now and fix it later. AMD with their wonderful DDR-RAM just admitted about week ago that they (yet again) have an issue with their motherboards and PCI implementation. If you did a search about this you would see that AMD owners have been playing musical PCI cards for quite a while now. Of course you can figure it out and get it working "rock solid stable, I swear" but how soon are you going to buy after that?



    Intel has been just as bad with their 845 that doesn't do DDR until we say it can, crippled celerons IV's that run slower than their old celerons, etc...etc...



    Then of course you have Microsoft who has stagnated the entire industry by basically chasing off any and all software development.



    This is what is causing everyone... including Apple to lose sales. Obviously Apple is going to fix their towers with some better specs soon, however even then I don't know if the numbers will go back up because their consumer machines are pretty kick butt. In otherwords people love iMovie, iDVD, iTunes, and they honestly don't love or hate DDR, SDR, or any other thing related to specs.



    In the meantime, anyone who continues to give me great solutions gets my money. For now that continues to be Apple. Apple should continue to innovate with iApps, give away their OS updates to drive hardware sales, move into new areas with consumer/pro apps, (digital music production needs a good kick in the pants for example) and just continue to do great things that make me want to hand them gobs of my money.



    Trumptman
  • Reply 70 of 99
    At least we now know why Apple executives were dumping stock.



    <img src="graemlins/bugeye.gif" border="0" alt="[Skeptical]" />
  • Reply 71 of 99
    qaziiqazii Posts: 305member
    [quote]Originally posted by spindler:

    <strong>

    Here's an interesting observation. The people who seem to think Apple is on shaky ground, such as me, Applenut, Nostradamus, and Junkyard Dawg all seem to quote actual sales statistics and long term trends. The people who argue vehemently that we are trolling don't have any numbers but merely repeat something hopeful from the current week's headlines...

    </strong>

    <hr></blockquote>



    I'll give you some numbers. With the exception of one or two quarters, Apple has posted a quarterly

    profit every quarter for the past few years. Plus Apple has $4000000000. That's a lot of cash. Apple can survive another period of decline if it needs to, but based on profits, it doesn't appear to need to.



    [quote]Originally posted by Nostradamus:

    <strong>



    Apple's revenues have been declining in 1995. If I recall correctly, at 1.4 billion-1.5 billion, Apple's recent revenue numbers are the lowest in the past 10 years. The last compelling PowerMac Apple had compared to x86 offerings was Yosemite, three years ago. Things have gone downhill since then?Apple had revenues of over 2 billion per quarter.

    </strong><hr></blockquote>



    Lowest in the past 10 years? Where did you get this from?

    Q2 2002: up 4% from previous year

    Q1 2002: up 37% from previous year

    Q4 2001: down 22% from previous year

    Q3 2001: down 19% from previous year

    Q2 2001: down 26% from previous year

    Q1 2001: down 57% from previous year

    Q4 2000: up 40% from previous year

    Q3 2000: up 17% from previous year

    Q2 2000: up 27% from previous year

    Q1 2000: up 37% from previous year

    (from Apple's web site)

    2001 was a bad year, true. But the most recent numbers are showing an upward trend.

    [quote]<strong>

    And then there's MacOS X, disaster number #2. Creative and professional customers, faced with the choice of upgrading their aging Macs are finding that OS X will force them to transition to a totally new operating system with new hardware. Since they will have to upgrade their software anyway, and with Apple's hardware the way it is, many ponder if it's worth to buy overpriced and underpowered hardware to run an immature operating system when they could buy hardware twice as fast at half the cost from the x86 world.

    </strong><hr></blockquote>



    Right...so instead of having to "transition to a totally new operating system with new hardware" they'll choose to transition to an entirely different operating system (Mac OS 9 and Mac OS X are at least somewhat similar in some respects) with new hardware? And they may have to buy some new peripherals while their at it.



    [quote]<strong>

    I'm not even sure if Apple is making a profit on the merits of it's products. I want to know how big of a role the interest they earn on that 4 billion in cash plays.

    </strong><hr></blockquote>



    From what I gather from <a href="http://a976.g.akamai.net/7/976/51/2c239809c19eb3/www.apple.com/pr/pdf/q202fin_statements.pdf"; target="_blank">http://a976.g.akamai.net/7/976/51/2c239809c19eb3/www.apple.com/pr/pdf/q202fin_statements.pdf</a>; I think their $1.6 billion in cash made them $27 million last quarter, though I'm not sure if I'm reading this correctly. The remainder of the $4 billion figure is short-term investments.
  • Reply 72 of 99
    ibrowseibrowse Posts: 1,749member
    If there''s no Apple Computer in 5 years I'll buy you a new Mac
  • Reply 73 of 99
    eugeneeugene Posts: 8,254member
    Apple sold 372K iMacs (old and new) in Q2 for $448M in revenue. Since shipments of new iMacs are expected to top Q2 shipments, I'd bet the total number of shipped iMacs should stay roughly the same with slightly higher revenue.



    Also, at least on paper Apple will probably make nowhere near $24M on the iMac alone.
  • Reply 74 of 99
    frawgzfrawgz Posts: 547member
    [quote]Originally posted by Nostradamus:

    <strong>And then there's MacOS X, disaster number #2. Creative and professional customers, faced with the choice of upgrading their aging Macs are finding that OS X will force them to transition to a totally new operating system with new hardware. Since they will have to upgrade their software anyway, and with Apple's hardware the way it is, many ponder if it's worth to buy overpriced and underpowered hardware to run an immature operating system when they could buy hardware twice as fast at half the cost from the x86 world.

    </strong><hr></blockquote>



    Geez, you're right. I never really understood where Apple was going with this whole UNIX rubbish either. Let's be realistic now.. there was never any hope, was there? OS X is immature, so there was never any point in starting anywhere. We should have all just stuck with OS 9 or jumped ship to Windows. Ohhh I get it now. Apple IS doomed.



    Hey, it's healthy to talk about Apple being on "shaky ground," but that's completely different from their being DOOMED. It gets tiring. Fine, they're doomed. We get it. What does it matter to you that a few faithful stragglers stick around to watch the train wreck? You can shout it from the mountaintops over and over so you can say "I told you so" afterwards, as if it'd make you feel better? Whatever, dude. Go get a Dell. If they really are dead, then it wouldn't matter to you anymore, would it? Or are you just hoping we'd cast a vote for your CEO-ship at the next shareholders' meeting?
  • Reply 75 of 99
    eugeneeugene Posts: 8,254member
    [quote]Or are you just hoping we'd cast a vote for your CEO-ship at the next shareholders' meeting?<hr></blockquote>



    Nah, he's too brown for that.
  • Reply 76 of 99
    [quote]Originally posted by Eugene:

    <strong>



    Nah, he's too brown for that. </strong><hr></blockquote>



    Meh.
  • Reply 77 of 99
    kedakeda Posts: 722member
    Hardware, Hardware, Hardware



    This is and will continue to be 'the problem' until Apple releases HW that can out perform the bulk of the competition. I know alot of PC guys who like OSX, but they will never switch. Why? Well thats exactly what they say.



    What are the real advantages? Yes, the OS it THE reason, but most of them are very at home w/Windoze. They might not love M$, but they dont look at their PC's and think 'horrid little machine.'



    AMD can sell their version of the mhz myth because they are not 1000mhz behind. Most people simply dont believe Apple's story.



    The sky is not falling, but Apple will not enjoy strong Pro sales until the HW situation improves. Take me for example. I have a Beige G4/500 (G3/266) which I have upgraded in many ways. If the HW was right, I could be in the market for a new machine. But, there is now way Im buying now or in the near future (baring a major change). Im holding out for as long as I can in hopes that Apple will really deliver.



    BTW, didnt SJ say that Apple would be doing great things a year ago? Didnt he say the mhz gap would close?
  • Reply 78 of 99
    thuh freakthuh freak Posts: 2,664member
    [quote]Originally posted by EmAn:

    <strong>(in response to one of the naysayers: ) Shut up.</strong><hr></blockquote>



    amen. of coarse, i work on blind faith (interesting: i can blindly believe in a computer company, but not blindly believe in a "gohd"; go figure), and can't think anything will ever go rawng with appel, but nothing ever will (ever).



    apple is going to survive. they are making a profit. they will keep making a profit. and if it gets too grimm, then us hardcores can buy out apple altogether when its reeeal cheap and have them make us personally the swyytest machines eva. as long as i don't get my comeupins.



    the economy was hitting a slump at the end of the clinton era/beginning of the second coming of bush. the economy hit some more walls along the way. it was takes hits, and it seemed as if we were going to hit a recession. then we lost thousands of fvcking people in th' largest terrorist attack ever. businesses slowed down. they cut budgets. many went under. @my job they are trying to cut IT spending (maybe even me, perish the thot). so apple may not b 2 blame for the less huge profit margins.



    gohd save the kweyn.



    [ 06-19-2002: Message edited by: thuh Freak ]</p>
  • Reply 79 of 99
    macgpmacgp Posts: 88member
    Do you guys remember when apple dropped from around 50 something points to 26 in one day? Then gradually sunk to 15, and they are still around. So I don't think any of have to worry about apple dying. They have been kicked around for years but keep coming.



    But I do think they need a serious revamp on their pro line. I don't think the G4's are sufficient enough to the price they sell them at. Not to mention the rest of the computer is lack luster. But we have all been over that.
  • Reply 80 of 99
    macmediamacmedia Posts: 152member
    Shany is one of the few that had it right. This situation has a LOT more to do with the economy than with the Apple's hardware offerings.



    As someone that works in the industry I know firsthand that Corporate America isn't spending the money that they were 2 years ago and that trickle down has affected the graphics industry in huge way. I know of several firms in town that have laid off people, drastically reduced their print/web departments or just plain shut down.



    These companies sure as hell aren't going to be buying new Macs regardless of how fast they are.



    Has anyone considered that Apple is sitting on things a bit until the market recovers somewhat? I find it hard to believe personally but it makes me wonder. If no one has the capital to buy "new" products, why go to the huge expense of making them?



    I don't think we're going to see anything at MWNY that is going to be so radically different that it will really appease most of the people on this board.



    Chas
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