Apple on pace to sell 53M iPhones in June quarter, Apple Watch demand sustaining 'healthy' levels

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 61
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Obviously there wasn't the supply available to have in stores. It's not like people were ordering watches online and having them ship within 3-5 business days.



    It can be debated whether Apple botched the role out or not, or why there were no watches in Apple stores on lunch day but there were in boutiques around the world. That's not the point -- the fact is it happened, and sales will likely pick up now that a customer can walk into a store, try on the watch without making an appointment, and walk out of the store with the watch on their wrist after being paired and set up by a Genius, rather than ordering it online and waiting a month to get it -- which tends to take the enthusiasm out of any purchase. 

  • Reply 42 of 61
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,666member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by cali View Post



    The reason for low interest at the start is probably due to online only availability which was a terrible idea in my opinion.



    The media loves the Apple launch line frenzy. Let's hope iPhone/iPad doesn't start launching online only.



    Given that there are 38 different base models and many times that number of possible watch/band combinations, and extremely limited production capacity, stocking them at stores without a better sense of what would be the popular combinations was an impossible proposition. 

     

    It makes good sense that they would custom-fulfil online orders first and only stock stores once they had a) supply and b) an idea of how to proportionately stock models/bands/combinations.

  • Reply 43 of 61
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by hpaulh View Post



    You don't get around a lot in LA then. I got my Apple Watch the first week released, and I've seen a number of them...and increasing every week. 

    Again, your anectdotal experience, which is proof of nothing, other than you've seen more than I have. I have not been to Pasadena since the watch came out, but I have been in some of the trendiest areas of LA, the Westside in particular, and I work within the biggest entertainment business in LA, and have not seen one -- well not one on a local -- I did see one on a visitor from Japan. Even when I bought two from Maxfield LA, I did not see anyone actually wearing one, people carrying them out in boxes, but not wearing them.

  • Reply 44 of 61
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,666member
    Can people on both sides just accept that we don't actually have numbers yet, and that any speculation is just used for ego-puffing at this point?
  • Reply 45 of 61
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

     

     

    My co-worker purchased one but returned it. I had the option of getting one but found a smoking deal on a Garmin Fenix 3. Strangely I saw a couple while hanging out on Catalina for a week.

     

    I love getting notifications on my wrist. It is awesome. I can see where Apple is going with this. I haven't read much about the heart rate monitor yet in terms of accuracy for activities.

     

    I also need my watch to be waterproof and a bit rugged. I don't know if Apple will ever go there with the Apple watch.

     

    Apple would need to add GPS on watch, create a workout app with the level of sophistication shown in Garmin products while also allowing it to export or send info to all the major fitness services (Strava, Garmin Connect, etc.)

     

    While Apple Watch gen 1 has some short comings, gen 3 might be perfect for me.


     

    I'd like to know if those folks on Catalina were tourists or locals (to LA since most people on Catalina are tourists by default haha)

     

    But I agree. The first gen watch is not for me. But I do want one. I really hope they stand behind more aggressive water resistance protection so I can wear it with water sports. The notifications are not so important for me, but ?Pay, and being able to retrieve messages while away from my phone would be worth it. And I would enjoy the fitness tracker. I have been considering buying the Rip Curl Search GPS, which has 10 hours of continuous GPS tracking on a single charge, but part of me thinks Gen 2 might have better water proofing and GPS, since what I really want is ?Pay and the time. And unless I get more serious about surfing, I'm not sure I want to spend $400 on a watch that only tracks GPS over my current Vestal Brig Tide watch.

     

    Even if it's not gen 2, I fully expect Apple to go there as they offer more styles, and meet the expectation of those luxury watch wearers who take for granted their Rolex can stay on their wrist unscathed regardless of how much water they immerse themselves in.

  • Reply 46 of 61
    hpaulhhpaulh Posts: 16member

    Call it what you want -- anecdotal, experiential, personal sightings -- boasting about narrow trendy experiences (previously noted) makes no point at all.

     

    My "non-point" anecdotal, experiential, personal sighting "psuedo-intellectual" observations since receiving my Apple Watch and sighting several dozen or more over the past two months is just another anecdote by being all around LA and Orange Counties every day -- including the so-called trendy entertainment sections of the West side (silly).  If you're not seeing them, you're not looking - not going anywhere - not around very many people - not checking your pulse in any way.

  • Reply 47 of 61
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by spheric View Post

     



    Given that there are 38 different base models and many times that number of possible watch/band combinations, and extremely limited production capacity, stocking them at stores without a better sense of what would be the popular combinations was an impossible proposition. 

     

    It makes good sense that they would custom-fulfil online orders first and only stock stores once they had a) supply and b) an idea of how to proportionately stock models/bands/combinations.




    Would that task have been less daunting if they packaged the cases and bands separately? I had that thought in passing but haven't poked it very hard, but maybe so. Ignoring the Edition it's two case materials in two sizes with two color choices, plus bands. I have a friend who owns a bikini shop and everything she sells is mix and match.... she says it's a more flexible  model than predetermined "sets".

  • Reply 48 of 61
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    Huberty has a poor track record, so take this note with a grain of salt.

    Maybe, but there is lots of supporting evidence. For example one of my semiconductor trade publications has indicated that the entire cell phone market is down except for Apple. Sales for iPhone related parts are still strong at this moment in time. That is rather shocking in one way but then the indications are that strong sales are the result of China which sits on a different cycle thn the USA.

    Apples next quarterly will be most interesting.
  • Reply 49 of 61
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,666member
    jfc1138 wrote: »

    Would that task have been less daunting if they packaged the cases and bands separately? I had that thought in passing but haven't poked it very hard, but maybe so. Ignoring the Edition it's two case materials in two sizes with two color choices, plus bands. I have a friend who owns a bikini shop and everything she sells is mix and match.... she says it's a more flexible  model than predetermined "sets".

    Probably.

    But that's not how watches are sold. Apple are the totally new kid on the luxury accessory market, and they really, really needed to not **** up their entry.

    Being able to try something on and then have that exact custom configuration delivered to your home with a set-up session is perfectly acceptable and normal to that market, if awkward to the regular tech customer (whom Apple isn't, at this point, primarily aiming at with the Watch).

    Bringing home several packages and having to assemble them yourself is not.
  • Reply 50 of 61
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    rogifan wrote: »
    It's interesting how people's anecdotes are always different than the meme out there. The meme is Apple Watch is a dud. Yet I see more and more posts like this from people saying just the opposite.

    There are a lot of idiots out there. It is foolish to expect a high end proof of concept device to have the same sales volumes as an iPhone. I say proof of concept here because I think we will see the same increase in capability that we saw with the original iPhone Seen in the first few years. Put enough functionality in that watch and you will see many adopting it.
  • Reply 51 of 61
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    bageljoey wrote: »
    Yeah. I haven't seen any in the wild, but many people have seen mine! :)
    I know that two people (that I know of) ordered theirs after seeing mine and talking to me. I think a lot of people have interest, but are waiting to pull the trigger. Sales could snowball as availability and awareness increases.
    Considering the process technology the current watch is built upon, the next one could be very interesting indeed. One of the reasons I call this watch a proof of concept is that good sales will drive development of better supporting technology. In this case I'm thinking a process shrink for the SoC which also results in higher integration. That ought to result in a significant amount of power savings.

    To look at it another way, look at the first iPad or iPhone and how far we have come with those platforms. The first iPad was most certainly a proof of concept that massively improved with each new release.
    OTOH, my parents said "Oh, but people are having problems with Apple Watches, aren't they?" They could not specify what they heard (I'm guessing it was the grumbling about availability and long initial shipping waits) but they had a generally negative impression of the Watch. I often use their impressions as a barrometer of non-tech sentiment out there...

    This is one reason Apple has to address the negative image some have tried to create around the watch. Some people, even supposedly responsible people in the press, would rather not see Apple succeed and as such try to do harm to the company with baseless complaining.

    The best thing you can do is to demo the watch so that people can start to grasp that the watch is real and unique.
  • Reply 52 of 61
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    nolamacguy wrote: »
    how can you read this site and still believe that was by design? it was clearly supply constrained, due to reasons we'll likely never know about. except one -- that they did it on purpose.

    Which is complete ignorance. Attitudes like this reflect the fact that many Americans have no connection at all with manufacturing these days. In fact it highlights that few have ever been involved in a new manufacturing line start up. I can assure you that no matter how much money you throw at it, you just don't flip a switch and have massive volumes of new product coming off the production line. A ramp up and debug is a given part of the process.
  • Reply 53 of 61
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    jfc1138 wrote: »

    Would that task have been less daunting if they packaged the cases and bands separately? I had that thought in passing but haven't poked it very hard, but maybe so. Ignoring the Edition it's two case materials in two sizes with two color choices, plus bands. I have a friend who owns a bikini shop and everything she sells is mix and match.... she says it's a more flexible  model than predetermined "sets".

    This friend of yours.....
  • Reply 54 of 61
    neutrino23neutrino23 Posts: 1,563member

    I too got an Apple Watch for Fathers Day, seems to be a trend. (Of course, I paid for it.) ;)

     

    I haven't seen one in the wild, but I haven't looked carefully. I used it to pay for coffee at Peet's and the clerk there didn't bat an eye, as if this was a normal event, so I wasn't the first to do so.

     

    I don't think AAPL price goes up much in anticipation of products, it is more that it goes up gradually in response to revenue and profit reports. Horace pointed out that for an extended stretch the price of AAPL was a fixed multiple of the cash on hand. I think that trend broke about three years ago. In any event, if revenues and profits double in the next five years or so I expect the share price to do the same. Note that Tim said that we should expect increasing dividends as well which helps the share price.

     

    It seems doable. iPhone business is growing. iPads will stabilize or grow with new features and software and with IBM's push to the enterprise. Apple Watch will grow as new versions come out. Still we have Apple TV and Car Play to look forward to plus whatever else they might come up with .

  • Reply 55 of 61
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 2,008member
    wizard69 wrote: »

    This is one reason Apple has to address the negative image some have tried to create around the watch. Some people, even supposedly responsible people in the press, would rather not see Apple succeed and as such try to do harm to the company with baseless complaining.

    The best thing you can do is to demo the watch so that people can start to grasp that the watch is real and unique.
    I agree with the second part more than the first. Apple didn't "survive" Bendgate and Antenagate by addressing the issues with the public (although they did try to do some damage control).
    What got them through was the fact that everybody who bought these iPhones loved them and nobody was returning theirs.

    It's not like there is a competing smartwatch that is threatening to dominate the market while Apple takes their usual launch beating... Before too long there will be millions and millions of Apple Watch ambassadors walking around and they speak louder than any fluff controversy ever will!
  • Reply 56 of 61
    trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,464member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

     

    Oh, it's quite rugged. I've banged it around, and not a single scratch so far in 2+ months.

     

    As to whether it's water'proof' (we know it is officially water 'resistant'): http://mashable.com/2015/05/07/apple-watch-water-resistance-test/

     

    Incidentally, since your iPhone has a GPS, why would you need it on your Watch? Unless, of course, you want a watch that is completely independent of the iPhone, in which case most of your complaints (the ones I did not include above) are pointless.


     

    I'm glad it is pretty rugged so far for you and I hope it bears out over the long term because I'd like to purchase one in a few more generations. My current watch is waterproof to 100 M. I swim with it and it does GPS swim tracking in open water. It also uses the accelerometers to do stroke detection and so forth if swimming indoors in a pool with no GPS. I want that protection included in my watch. I'm glad to see Apple's initial efforts there are better than they've done in the past but I wanted it fully waterproof. I want GPS on the watch because there are times I want to leave my phone behind and carry less stuff. It is part of why I own an iPod Nano (and also a Shuffle.) Since the Apple Watch can hold and play music via bluetooth headphones, I'd be able to go from two items to one so of course that is a win.

     

    One of the big issues I didn't mention before is battery life. The screen on the Fenix 3 is color and always on. They made a different choice there in terms of technology but the effect on battery life is along the lines of what I prefer. Again, Apple might conquer this a few generations down the line. I recently came back from a week long vacation. I intentionally left the charger for my Fenix 3 at home. The watch notified me of all the things I wanted it to do via bluetooth wrist taps, tracked my activity and steps (including get off your ass and move notifications) and also tracked around 4 hours of GPS activity while lasting 6 days. (It died on the way home.) Point blank that was awesome. Garmin just put a heart rate monitor into their Garmin Forerunner 220 and called it the 225. The Fenix 3 has this amazing battery life while the battery is half the size of the Fenix 2.

     

    So all I want beyond what I have now is a microphone/speaker and heartrate monitor. Apple obviously has those in the Apple Watch so they have an "in" with me. However Garmin might add those as well in a future Fenix watch and then to me it would be absolutely perfect.

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by NolaMacGuy View Post

     
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by trumptman View Post



    I haven't read much about the heart rate monitor yet in terms of accuracy for activities.




    while using pro gym equipment I'm compared the AW's reader to the machine's, and they were either identical or 1-2 BPM off from each other. thats good enough for me.

     

    That's awesome. Is it continuous though or just spot reading of heart rate?

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

     

     

    My co-worker purchased one but returned it. I had the option of getting one but found a smoking deal on a Garmin Fenix 3. Strangely I saw a couple while hanging out on Catalina for a week.

     

    I love getting notifications on my wrist. It is awesome. I can see where Apple is going with this. I haven't read much about the heart rate monitor yet in terms of accuracy for activities.

     

    I also need my watch to be waterproof and a bit rugged. I don't know if Apple will ever go there with the Apple watch.

     

    Apple would need to add GPS on watch, create a workout app with the level of sophistication shown in Garmin products while also allowing it to export or send info to all the major fitness services (Strava, Garmin Connect, etc.)

     

    While Apple Watch gen 1 has some short comings, gen 3 might be perfect for me.


     

    I'd like to know if those folks on Catalina were tourists or locals (to LA since most people on Catalina are tourists by default haha)

     

    But I agree. The first gen watch is not for me. But I do want one. I really hope they stand behind more aggressive water resistance protection so I can wear it with water sports. The notifications are not so important for me, but ?Pay, and being able to retrieve messages while away from my phone would be worth it. And I would enjoy the fitness tracker. I have been considering buying the Rip Curl Search GPS, which has 10 hours of continuous GPS tracking on a single charge, but part of me thinks Gen 2 might have better water proofing and GPS, since what I really want is ?Pay and the time. And unless I get more serious about surfing, I'm not sure I want to spend $400 on a watch that only tracks GPS over my current Vestal Brig Tide watch.

     

    Even if it's not gen 2, I fully expect Apple to go there as they offer more styles, and meet the expectation of those luxury watch wearers who take for granted their Rolex can stay on their wrist unscathed regardless of how much water they immerse themselves in.


     

    I didn't think of Apple Pay but you are right. I certainly wouldn't mind being able to swipe my wrist and pay for items. I only own the 5S right now and so no Apple Pay for me. I still like the smaller form factor and I'm hoping for another update in that size. That said I might have to cave and get whatever the 6S or equivalent comes in because my eyes are starting to go to hell.

  • Reply 57 of 61
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

     

     

    I.....

     

    I didn't think of Apple Pay but you are right. I certainly wouldn't mind being able to swipe my wrist and pay for items. I only own the 5S right now and so no Apple Pay for me. I still like the smaller form factor and I'm hoping for another update in that size. That said I might have to cave and get whatever the 6S or equivalent comes in because my eyes are starting to go to hell.




    Though as an FYI with the 5s the Watch would do Apple Pay.

  • Reply 58 of 61
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post



    The Apple fans are buying second iPhones to pad Apple's numbers. /s



    The only padding you need to concern yourself with is the padding around you ass

  • Reply 59 of 61
    danielswdanielsw Posts: 906member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post



    Hard to believe we're just a little over 2 months away from a new iPhone. Where does the time go?



    If you have an Apple Watch, you can watch it go.

  • Reply 60 of 61
    creek0512creek0512 Posts: 111member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by total View Post

     

    hmm that would be +50% YoY, crazy!


    Since the previous 2 quarters since the iPhone 6 launch have seen ~50% YoY growth, not really crazy at all.  If it is more than 51.03 million than it will be the 3rd most iPhones sold in any quarter after the previous 2 quarters.

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