Large screen for now. Heres what I see as the trends for the next few decades:
Large screen phones
Zero bezel phones
Foldable phones (how 1990s)
Wearables with larger screens
Wearables with foldable/rollable screens
Wearables with projected screens
I see mental telepathy, teleportation and immortality as trending.
I see Apple not building cars but personal 4-wheel scooters for morbidly obese Americans. They get on in the morning and stay on until nightfall while their legs and feet atrophy into little stubs. It's inevitable...
and those will most likely be on the same timeline as the ATV was for gen 2 and 3. Everyone could be waiting a while. I am curious to see if they take the Ipod approach, start high and work their way down. They did not do that with Ipads or iphones since the bottoms feeders moved in too fast with cheap Okay product that most people just bought.
not so sure -- they did release less expensive iPads to fill smaller spots in the pricing umbrella. and as i recall the "other" tablets sold was pretty small. the tablet market was an iPad market for a long time. not sure what the current breakdown is
iPod sales are continually dropping by double digits each quarter, as expected. So there's a bit of wiggle room here. How have aTv sales been doing during this period, for example. If aTv sales have been static, then it's possible that Apple Watch sales have been taking up the slack from falling iPod sales.
Yes, but they released the new iPods during the last quarter so anyone with pent up need for a more powerful iPod likely rushed out and bought it, which likely resulted in a surge. I would expect that trend to continue during the holiday season as well. The ?TV also had a big price drop which likely initiated a lot of sales, I know I went out and bought several. Probably less so since the ATV4 was announced. And then there's Beats which launched several new products during the quarter as well, including a big back-to-school sale in July. So I wouldn't so readily discount the effect of those other products to the income growth for the quarter.
Apple Watch was released on April 24th. So basically its been on sale for 5 months.
$1.7 billion is the absolute minimum Watch sales.
The last time we got iPod revenue broken out was FY2014. iPod revenue dropped from $4.4 billion to $2.2 billion for FY2014. I expect a similiar drop last year. So iPod revenue dropped $1.1 billion. Other Revenue includes Beats. But there has been very little new Beats products this year and AppleTV revenue has been down. So I think Watch made up $300-$500 million more revenue in addition to the $1.7 billion.
That gives us $2.2 billion in 5 months.
If ASP is $500 that gives us 4.4 billion Watches sold. Cook said the Watches are selling faster than previous months. I think we are at 1 million per month now.
May-Sept - 4.4 million
Oct - 1 million
Nov - 2 million
Dec - 3 million
Jan - 2 million (Chinese New year)
Feb - 1.5 million
Mar - 1.5 million
Total - 15 million
Good luck with that number. My estimation is 10M at most. I don't see the sale of Apple watch increase over time. What do you think it took 5 months to reach 4M units which was <1M per month and later 2-3M a month? I know you think about holiday season, but it's a 8 month old device and it costs almost as an iPhone. Gadgets get cooled down over time and I don't see Apple watch is a hot item in holiday list. I doubt that Apple can even reach 10M in 12 months based on current estimation from the revenue.
I believe Apple Watch is just another ecosystem/halo device to sell all things Apple. The only reason you need an iPhone to unlock the potential of an Apple Watch is because they couldn't fit the complete feature set inside the small case. Eventually they will be able to.
I agree. I think that releasing the watch after the iPhone 6 was great marketing, since it allowed people to carry bigger phones, and still access them without the need to hold them in their hand. The fact is the watch works with every phone back through the 5. The 4S still accounts for a small percentage of the installed base, but the rest are insignificant. In fact, not introducing a smaller 6S also seems like it could be part of a strategy to promote the ?Watch, as people who want to upgrade may look for other solutions to minimize the size increase, especially if they opt for the Plus -- in that sense it may make the Plus more attractive. If Apple releases a smaller iPhone 7, the groundwork for the watch will be sufficiently laid.
As it stands the watch does a ton of things without the iPhone. I basically use it instead of the iPhone when I use it. And I agree, eventually the watch (or some wearable will replace the phone). So, I was particularly interested in Tim Cook's statement that the iPad was responsible for introducing a substantial number of customers to Apple's ecosystem. In which case, if a large percentage of homes have an iPad, but no other Apple products, I could see the watch expanding to being paired with an iPad at some point, and maybe even a Mac as it becomes more and more autonomous. So basically everything Apple sells are halo products to the iPhone and MacBook one way or another. I think it's brilliant.
When Apple releases a watch that can work without an iPhone, has a full array of sensors, and doesn't resemble a Chicklet, it'll sell more units.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac_128
I think that releasing the watch after the iPhone 6 was great marketing, since it allowed people to carry bigger phones, and still access them without the need to hold them in their hand. The fact is the watch works with every phone back through the 5. The 4S still accounts for a small percentage of the installed base, but the rest are insignificant. In fact, not introducing a smaller 6S also seems like it could be part of a strategy to promote the ?Watch, as people who want to upgrade may look for other solutions to minimize the size increase, especially if they opt for the Plus -- in that sense it may make the Plus more attractive. If Apple releases a smaller iPhone 7, the groundwork for the watch will be sufficiently laid.
+1 I think the iPhone 6 plus was Apple's raison d'etre for releasing the Watch.
I think that once people 'get it' about the Apple Watch, its production numbers will soar.
Apple Watches aren't as ubiquitous as iPhones yet but, having bought mine in the first week they shipped (May 15), I can say that now that timepiece wrist wearables look very 20th century to me.
People have to stop thinking of it as a watch. Perhaps Apple should change its name. It's not a watch any more than your iPhone is a watch, since they do many of the same things. The Apple Watch just shows you more conveniently. One gets dependent on it quickly.
And if you're getting tired of trying to get your plus-sized iPhone out of your pocket, get one.
I've been noticing more AppleWatches in the wild and also on TV. Seen George Brett with an AppleWatch the other day.
But,but,but,but,but Apple Watch isn't enough to move the needle....clowns.
Apple makes $230 billion in revenue a year.
Sure AppleWatch alone won't make a huge dent.
Nor will ApplePay, or AppleMusic, or AppleTV, or iPad Pro, or Beats, or incremental Mac sales.
But idiots are not considering what happens when you COMBINE all of those together.
In a couple years I could see these additional revenue streams:
1. Apple Watch - $15 billion revenue on 30 million units a year
2. Apple TV - $10 billion revenue including TV subs and apps
3. Apple Pay - $2 billion
3. Apple Music - $6 billion on 50 million subs
4. iPad Pro - $10 billion
5. Beats - $2 billion
6. Increase in Mac - $2 billion
Add all that together and thats almost $50 billion in revenue.
Sometimes the idiots are just too optimistic.
If you don't think about the global economy just keep adding numbers up, the results hypothetically arrives as you expected.
However, the global economy that doesn't always go up determine whether people have the money to buy those things.
So what you could see is just speculations, no such a foundation to support your claims.
To me, those figures only show neutral+ performance because Apple is getting too big. If you are big covering so many different products, you have to keep the balance among your products and also you are been balanced in the terms of revenue.
I've never mentioned a word related to stock. And stock doesn't always reflect the value of a company.
You should check the growth rates of Apple in those years and double check how big Apple was and how many products they were offering. Even more, what was global economy during those time? E.g., how much did each major country contribute to the global economy? Why was there a crisis? Without knowing such details, your argument is just worthless.
To reply to your third argument, I would like to mention everything is not static but changing fast (You probably knew already). Can you imagine how much did Chinese consumers contribute to Apple sales in 5 years ago in companion to today? So your analogs are genuine GRE false analogy. It is a obvious error in scientific research world.
The past cannot be ALWAYS used to predict the future. But the past definitely provides valuable experiences and useful educational lessens. So, the adding numbers up approach is not a correct measure to predict a company growth.
For you last sentence, I would like to say if you look at the demographic figures of Apple consumers, and you might not arrive to such a naive conclusion "You don't get it. The rich will always have money to buy cool stuff. And that's who Apple caters to.". Without massive consumers, Apple won't become today's Apple.
In addition, Apple doesn't always sell cool stuff. Lots of stuffs listed in Apple store isn't cool at all, just only useful.
When Apple releases a watch that can work without an iPhone, has a full array of sensors, and doesn't resemble a Chicklet, it'll sell more units.
Regarding the comment about "working without an iPhone", I always have to ask if the comment is thought all the way through. Reason I say this is:
- A wearable is *not* meant to replace our modern smartphones, not today, and not 5 years from now (maybe in 10+...). We do so much on our smartphones interacting with that screen, from browsing, reading, texting, photos, video, etc...And you need that bigger screen. And it has a much bigger battery.
- This means we are almost always carrying that smartphone with us. Most people, other than for some exercise and other short duration events, never leave home without it now (only by accident).
- So if that smartphone will be with us almost all the time, doesn't it make sense for the watch to use it for things like 3G/4G cellular? And to be the central location for apps? And to store the data of the apps & show us information?
- Do you want to have 2 cellular contracts? Or have two phone numbers?
- So if having a smartphone, why go to the bother of supporting Android? That makes no sense, so iPhone it is.
I think what Apple has done in WatchOS 2 is pretty much the sweet spot, given the state of battery, size of device etc. The watch learns / retains WiFi information from the iPhone, and can operate without it for many of the apps, where they can update information without the iPhone's data connection.
I do agree that in the future, when a wearable can have a cellular radio with decent battery life and signal strength (and you can get it added to your data service for a small price), it will be slightly more convenient for the times I would leave home without my iPhone, but wearing the watch (going for a short walk, exercise, or just forgot the phone). My apps will be able to have connectivity all the time in those cases. But that is really only a small benefit, as the watch is not replacing my phone - it is adding to my experience - and I will almost always have my phone.
Look like it's been under 4M units sold. That means at most 10M/12 months. I guess Sog35's 15M units won't even come close. Next generation then, hopefully. Apple Watch was the first portable product that I was torn between buying or not buying.
Not necessarily. All Apple said in its 10-K is that Watch accounted for "over 100%" of the increase in Other from 2014 to 2015. That means that Apple Watch sales were at least $1.7 billion. They did not say what Apple Watch revenues were (as that would provide a more direct clue as to actual sales.
May be $300B, $150B, $100B or $30B in 2-3 years (A bad example is VW). We will see. Then we will know who is wrong.
I am not bashing the Apple Inc. I am actually a Apple fan. I own more than 25 Apple devices, from Powerbooks, Macbook Pros, iPads, iMac 5K, Accessories to multiple generations of iPhones but Apple Watch. I am considering to purchase Apple stock for investment. However, I am not the fan without criticisms. I think I am more objective than many people here, specially the guy DED.
I don't think the global economy will have a great recession. However, I see the economy of US won't make up those spending gaps in the near future, which would be a bad news for any American company.
I am actually a Apple fan. I own more than 25 Apple devices, from Powerbooks, Macbook Pros, iPads, iMac 5K, Accessories to multiple generations of iPhones but Apple Watch. I am considering to purchase Apple stock for investment.
May be $300B, $150B, $100B or $30B in 2-3 years (A bad example is VW). We will see. Then we will know who is wrong.
I am not bashing the Apple Inc. I am actually a Apple fan. I own more than 25 Apple devices, from Powerbooks, Macbook Pros, iPads, iMac 5K, Accessories to multiple generations of iPhones but Apple Watch. I am considering to purchase Apple stock for investment. However, I am not the fan without criticisms. I think I am more objective than many people here, specially the guy DED.
I don't think the global economy will have a great recession. However, I see the economy of US won't make up those spending gaps in the near future, which would be a bad news for any American company.
Good luck with your optimistic on Apple Inc.
The economy has tanked a few times in the last 15. Apple has rode the storm out.
Good luck with that number. My estimation is 10M at most. I don't see the sale of Apple watch increase over time. What do you think it took 5 months to reach 4M units which was <1M per month and later 2-3M a month? I know you think about holiday season, but it's a 8 month old device and it costs almost as an iPhone. Gadgets get cooled down over time and I don't see Apple watch is a hot item in holiday list. I doubt that Apple can even reach 10M in 12 months based on current estimation from the revenue.
That could've been said about the first iPhone and iPad. They both increased sales in the Dec/Jan months even though they were several months old.
But considering that you need a recent iPhone to make it work that narrows the potential market big time.
The market for iPad/iPhone was literally billions.
The market for Watch is a few hundred million.
The Apple Watch works with an iPhone 5 or later. So that's three years ago. I'm not sure I would call that recent, but I certainly would question why the iPhone 4S isn't compatible (it has Bluetooth 4.0).
So you don't expect Apple to sell more Watches during the holidays?
So you don't expect Apple products to sell more units as time goes by?
So you don't expect retailers to offer nice discounts on the Watch during the holidays?
I really don't believe your number from Dec (3M), Jan (2M) and 1.5M months after that....no way. Apple couldn't even sell 1.5M unit/mo so far since released. What make you think they will sell 1.5M/mo from Feb-Apr 2016?
Comments
I see Apple not building cars but personal 4-wheel scooters for morbidly obese Americans. They get on in the morning and stay on until nightfall while their legs and feet atrophy into little stubs. It's inevitable...
not so sure -- they did release less expensive iPads to fill smaller spots in the pricing umbrella. and as i recall the "other" tablets sold was pretty small. the tablet market was an iPad market for a long time. not sure what the current breakdown is
iPod sales are continually dropping by double digits each quarter, as expected. So there's a bit of wiggle room here. How have aTv sales been doing during this period, for example. If aTv sales have been static, then it's possible that Apple Watch sales have been taking up the slack from falling iPod sales.
Yes, but they released the new iPods during the last quarter so anyone with pent up need for a more powerful iPod likely rushed out and bought it, which likely resulted in a surge. I would expect that trend to continue during the holiday season as well. The ?TV also had a big price drop which likely initiated a lot of sales, I know I went out and bought several. Probably less so since the ATV4 was announced. And then there's Beats which launched several new products during the quarter as well, including a big back-to-school sale in July. So I wouldn't so readily discount the effect of those other products to the income growth for the quarter.
Apple Watch was released on April 24th. So basically its been on sale for 5 months.
$1.7 billion is the absolute minimum Watch sales.
The last time we got iPod revenue broken out was FY2014. iPod revenue dropped from $4.4 billion to $2.2 billion for FY2014. I expect a similiar drop last year. So iPod revenue dropped $1.1 billion. Other Revenue includes Beats. But there has been very little new Beats products this year and AppleTV revenue has been down. So I think Watch made up $300-$500 million more revenue in addition to the $1.7 billion.
That gives us $2.2 billion in 5 months.
If ASP is $500 that gives us 4.4 billion Watches sold. Cook said the Watches are selling faster than previous months. I think we are at 1 million per month now.
May-Sept - 4.4 million
Oct - 1 million
Nov - 2 million
Dec - 3 million
Jan - 2 million (Chinese New year)
Feb - 1.5 million
Mar - 1.5 million
Total - 15 million
Good luck with that number. My estimation is 10M at most. I don't see the sale of Apple watch increase over time. What do you think it took 5 months to reach 4M units which was <1M per month and later 2-3M a month? I know you think about holiday season, but it's a 8 month old device and it costs almost as an iPhone. Gadgets get cooled down over time and I don't see Apple watch is a hot item in holiday list. I doubt that Apple can even reach 10M in 12 months based on current estimation from the revenue.
You have a point.
But considering that you need a recent iPhone to make it work that narrows the potential market big time.
The market for iPad/iPhone was literally billions.
The market for Watch is a few hundred million.
"$150 AAPL share price by 12.31.15 or banishment " sog35
It is not looking great for you soggy, will you really depart? or is that just another burst of hot air?
I believe Apple Watch is just another ecosystem/halo device to sell all things Apple. The only reason you need an iPhone to unlock the potential of an Apple Watch is because they couldn't fit the complete feature set inside the small case. Eventually they will be able to.
I agree. I think that releasing the watch after the iPhone 6 was great marketing, since it allowed people to carry bigger phones, and still access them without the need to hold them in their hand. The fact is the watch works with every phone back through the 5. The 4S still accounts for a small percentage of the installed base, but the rest are insignificant. In fact, not introducing a smaller 6S also seems like it could be part of a strategy to promote the ?Watch, as people who want to upgrade may look for other solutions to minimize the size increase, especially if they opt for the Plus -- in that sense it may make the Plus more attractive. If Apple releases a smaller iPhone 7, the groundwork for the watch will be sufficiently laid.
As it stands the watch does a ton of things without the iPhone. I basically use it instead of the iPhone when I use it. And I agree, eventually the watch (or some wearable will replace the phone). So, I was particularly interested in Tim Cook's statement that the iPad was responsible for introducing a substantial number of customers to Apple's ecosystem. In which case, if a large percentage of homes have an iPad, but no other Apple products, I could see the watch expanding to being paired with an iPad at some point, and maybe even a Mac as it becomes more and more autonomous. So basically everything Apple sells are halo products to the iPhone and MacBook one way or another. I think it's brilliant.
You mean Ribwich?
When Apple releases a watch that can work without an iPhone, has a full array of sensors, and doesn't resemble a Chicklet, it'll sell more units.
I think that releasing the watch after the iPhone 6 was great marketing, since it allowed people to carry bigger phones, and still access them without the need to hold them in their hand. The fact is the watch works with every phone back through the 5. The 4S still accounts for a small percentage of the installed base, but the rest are insignificant. In fact, not introducing a smaller 6S also seems like it could be part of a strategy to promote the ?Watch, as people who want to upgrade may look for other solutions to minimize the size increase, especially if they opt for the Plus -- in that sense it may make the Plus more attractive. If Apple releases a smaller iPhone 7, the groundwork for the watch will be sufficiently laid.
+1 I think the iPhone 6 plus was Apple's raison d'etre for releasing the Watch.
If you divide by 500 that is about 3 million.
I think that once people 'get it' about the Apple Watch, its production numbers will soar.
Apple Watches aren't as ubiquitous as iPhones yet but, having bought mine in the first week they shipped (May 15), I can say that now that timepiece wrist wearables look very 20th century to me.
People have to stop thinking of it as a watch. Perhaps Apple should change its name. It's not a watch any more than your iPhone is a watch, since they do many of the same things. The Apple Watch just shows you more conveniently. One gets dependent on it quickly.
And if you're getting tired of trying to get your plus-sized iPhone out of your pocket, get one.
I've been noticing more AppleWatches in the wild and also on TV. Seen George Brett with an AppleWatch the other day.
But,but,but,but,but Apple Watch isn't enough to move the needle....clowns.
Apple makes $230 billion in revenue a year.
Sure AppleWatch alone won't make a huge dent.
Nor will ApplePay, or AppleMusic, or AppleTV, or iPad Pro, or Beats, or incremental Mac sales.
But idiots are not considering what happens when you COMBINE all of those together.
In a couple years I could see these additional revenue streams:
1. Apple Watch - $15 billion revenue on 30 million units a year
2. Apple TV - $10 billion revenue including TV subs and apps
3. Apple Pay - $2 billion
3. Apple Music - $6 billion on 50 million subs
4. iPad Pro - $10 billion
5. Beats - $2 billion
6. Increase in Mac - $2 billion
Add all that together and thats almost $50 billion in revenue.
Sometimes the idiots are just too optimistic.
If you don't think about the global economy just keep adding numbers up, the results hypothetically arrives as you expected.
However, the global economy that doesn't always go up determine whether people have the money to buy those things.
So what you could see is just speculations, no such a foundation to support your claims.
To me, those figures only show neutral+ performance because Apple is getting too big. If you are big covering so many different products, you have to keep the balance among your products and also you are been balanced in the terms of revenue.
I've never mentioned a word related to stock. And stock doesn't always reflect the value of a company.
You should check the growth rates of Apple in those years and double check how big Apple was and how many products they were offering. Even more, what was global economy during those time? E.g., how much did each major country contribute to the global economy? Why was there a crisis? Without knowing such details, your argument is just worthless.
To reply to your third argument, I would like to mention everything is not static but changing fast (You probably knew already). Can you imagine how much did Chinese consumers contribute to Apple sales in 5 years ago in companion to today? So your analogs are genuine GRE false analogy. It is a obvious error in scientific research world.
The past cannot be ALWAYS used to predict the future. But the past definitely provides valuable experiences and useful educational lessens. So, the adding numbers up approach is not a correct measure to predict a company growth.
For you last sentence, I would like to say if you look at the demographic figures of Apple consumers, and you might not arrive to such a naive conclusion "You don't get it. The rich will always have money to buy cool stuff. And that's who Apple caters to.". Without massive consumers, Apple won't become today's Apple.
In addition, Apple doesn't always sell cool stuff. Lots of stuffs listed in Apple store isn't cool at all, just only useful.
When Apple releases a watch that can work without an iPhone, has a full array of sensors, and doesn't resemble a Chicklet, it'll sell more units.
Regarding the comment about "working without an iPhone", I always have to ask if the comment is thought all the way through. Reason I say this is:
- A wearable is *not* meant to replace our modern smartphones, not today, and not 5 years from now (maybe in 10+...). We do so much on our smartphones interacting with that screen, from browsing, reading, texting, photos, video, etc...And you need that bigger screen. And it has a much bigger battery.
- This means we are almost always carrying that smartphone with us. Most people, other than for some exercise and other short duration events, never leave home without it now (only by accident).
- So if that smartphone will be with us almost all the time, doesn't it make sense for the watch to use it for things like 3G/4G cellular? And to be the central location for apps? And to store the data of the apps & show us information?
- Do you want to have 2 cellular contracts? Or have two phone numbers?
- So if having a smartphone, why go to the bother of supporting Android? That makes no sense, so iPhone it is.
I think what Apple has done in WatchOS 2 is pretty much the sweet spot, given the state of battery, size of device etc. The watch learns / retains WiFi information from the iPhone, and can operate without it for many of the apps, where they can update information without the iPhone's data connection.
I do agree that in the future, when a wearable can have a cellular radio with decent battery life and signal strength (and you can get it added to your data service for a small price), it will be slightly more convenient for the times I would leave home without my iPhone, but wearing the watch (going for a short walk, exercise, or just forgot the phone). My apps will be able to have connectivity all the time in those cases. But that is really only a small benefit, as the watch is not replacing my phone - it is adding to my experience - and I will almost always have my phone.
Look like it's been under 4M units sold. That means at most 10M/12 months. I guess Sog35's 15M units won't even come close. Next generation then, hopefully. Apple Watch was the first portable product that I was torn between buying or not buying.
Not necessarily. All Apple said in its 10-K is that Watch accounted for "over 100%" of the increase in Other from 2014 to 2015. That means that Apple Watch sales were at least $1.7 billion. They did not say what Apple Watch revenues were (as that would provide a more direct clue as to actual sales.
May be $300B, $150B, $100B or $30B in 2-3 years (A bad example is VW). We will see. Then we will know who is wrong.
I am not bashing the Apple Inc. I am actually a Apple fan. I own more than 25 Apple devices, from Powerbooks, Macbook Pros, iPads, iMac 5K, Accessories to multiple generations of iPhones but Apple Watch. I am considering to purchase Apple stock for investment. However, I am not the fan without criticisms. I think I am more objective than many people here, specially the guy DED.
I don't think the global economy will have a great recession. However, I see the economy of US won't make up those spending gaps in the near future, which would be a bad news for any American company.
Good luck with your optimistic on Apple Inc.
Now you've done it.
wait for it.....
The economy has tanked a few times in the last 15. Apple has rode the storm out.
That could've been said about the first iPhone and iPad. They both increased sales in the Dec/Jan months even though they were several months old.
You have a point.
But considering that you need a recent iPhone to make it work that narrows the potential market big time.
The market for iPad/iPhone was literally billions.
The market for Watch is a few hundred million.
The Apple Watch works with an iPhone 5 or later. So that's three years ago. I'm not sure I would call that recent, but I certainly would question why the iPhone 4S isn't compatible (it has Bluetooth 4.0).
So you don't expect Apple to sell more Watches during the holidays?
So you don't expect Apple products to sell more units as time goes by?
So you don't expect retailers to offer nice discounts on the Watch during the holidays?
I really don't believe your number from Dec (3M), Jan (2M) and 1.5M months after that....no way. Apple couldn't even sell 1.5M unit/mo so far since released. What make you think they will sell 1.5M/mo from Feb-Apr 2016?