Brean Capital tells investors to ignore 'noisy' supply chain, focus on longterm iPhone success

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  • Reply 61 of 75
    robbyx said:
    And? Google is 90% advertising. Nobody calls them a one trick pony. Same with Facebook. 
    Hey, I never said it was fair.  Read other things I've written.  I completely believe that Apple is held to a different standard.  But that's not the point.  If Google's ad revenue went away, they would crater too.  The comment to which I responded suggested that Apple would be just fine if the iPhone went away, which is nothing short of utter nonsense.
    Oh I don't disagree with that. Hence why I can't wait until Apple is no longer considered iPhone, Inc. but that might not be until we get Apple auto in 2020.
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  • Reply 62 of 75
    In fact, I was a critic of Bush. Obama has been steering the Titanic for nearly 8 years, so I think he absolutely should be held to account for the catastrophic ACA and unconstitutional actions he's taken.

    "Thanks, Obama!"... Indeed.

    im not referring to the infringements on our civil rights (especially since Bush proved the GOP will willingly take whatever they want while in office as well). I'm talking the economy -- which is better today by every metric than it was 8 years ago.
    Define "better". Better for whom?
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  • Reply 63 of 75
    muppetrymuppetry Posts: 3,331member
    ac1234 said:
    muppetry said:
    It's not even necessary to deride as superficial. That particular "exciting trajectory" is not, and has not, yielded significant profits, year after year. Same with the other companies. Apple has, and continues to, post huge profits, and continues to defy the market assessment, year after year. Predictions of the demise of the iPhone, the whole company etc., have been circulating for years, and the opposite continues to happen. How many years of growth does it take to establish a pattern? Your entire "exciting trajectory" argument is pure nonsense. The market is clearly being manipulated for reasons unconnected with any kind of reality in relation to trajectories or profits.
    And your "market manipulation" argument is even more nonsense - an over used premise by way too many on forums who have little else to try to explain why it is so under valued.
    It's not a premise, it's an observation, and the frequency of discussion should not be assumed to correlate inversely with whether or not it is possible or likely. That would make no sense at all. And you don't need to read blogs to find those discussions - it's a subject that has received plenty of attention in the press and elsewhere.
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  • Reply 64 of 75
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,057member
    sog35 said:
    fallenjt said:
    I fucking agree with you. Sog is all about his investment.
    So why do you buy AAPL stock?

    You buy it for warm and fuzzy feeling? 
    I buy it to make friken money.

    I put my hard earned money into and the fucking loser CEO allows the stock to crater like a company that's about to go bankrupt.  FRiken Blackberry is doing better than Apple this year, which is an absolute JOKE.
    I put money in AAPL because I believe in the company long term success, not like you who's doing daytrade. I'll my AAPL for years while you bet on $150 by eo2015 and got screwed by it. Don't blame Cook but yourself.
    damonf
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  • Reply 65 of 75
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,057member
    robbyx said:


    apple still makes nearly ALL the profit of the PC industry, makes nearly ALL the profit of tablets, and makes GOOD revenue from content media.

    contrast that with:

    - if google's advertising revenue went poof tomorrow, where would their revenue come from?

    - if microsoft's Windows revenue went poof tomorrow, where would their revenue come from?

    - if amazon's...oh wait, amazon doesnt have revenue.

    ....get it yet?
    Yeah, I get that you're a fanboy in the extreme sense of the word.  That's about all I get.

    If iPhone and related services revenue went away, Apple would dramatically contract in size.  Hundreds of thousands of people around the world would lose jobs.  The spaceship campus would be a ghost ship.  Would Apple disappear?  No.  As you point out, they do have other revenue streams that are independent of the iPhone, but do you really think those would remain as healthy as they are today?  If the iPhone vanished, do you really think iPad sales would thrive?  Mac sales?  No.  Everything would suffer and Apple would be hollowed out.  Only the most diehard fanboy would suggest otherwise.

    Same for Google.  Same for Microsoft.  Same for any other company that were to suddenly lose the lion's share of its revenue and its hallmark/signature product.

    D'uh.
    Will iPhone be wiped out? Heck no. When iPhone penetration stabilizes, it's going to be periodic upgrades and it stays that way. People really forgot that Apple are expanding their enterprise services and capabilities....that would be their long term income. One example of this: IBM who got rid of most of their hardware businesses and concentrate on software  application and servives.

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  • Reply 66 of 75
    ac1234ac1234 Posts: 138member
    muppetry said:
    ac1234 said:
    And your "market manipulation" argument is even more nonsense - an over used premise by way too many on forums who have little else to try to explain why it is so under valued.
    It's not a premise, it's an observation, and the frequency of discussion should not be assumed to correlate inversely with whether or not it is possible or likely. That would make no sense at all. And you don't need to read blogs to find those discussions - it's a subject that has received plenty of attention in the press and elsewhere.
    As have many other explanations - lack of innovation / poor execution / failed streaming negotiations / etc.  At days end there are almost certainly numerous explanations as to why AAPL is so under valued.  All but the "market manipulation" component land on the Board's and Cook's desk for correction.
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  • Reply 67 of 75
    muppetrymuppetry Posts: 3,331member
    ac1234 said:
    muppetry said:
    It's not a premise, it's an observation, and the frequency of discussion should not be assumed to correlate inversely with whether or not it is possible or likely. That would make no sense at all. And you don't need to read blogs to find those discussions - it's a subject that has received plenty of attention in the press and elsewhere.
    As have many other explanations - lack of innovation / poor execution / failed streaming negotiations / etc.  At days end there are almost certainly numerous explanations as to why AAPL is so under valued.  All but the "market manipulation" component land on the Board's and Cook's desk for correction.
    You already forgot the lack of "exciting trajectories", that apparently only affects Apple? I'm sorry, but certain players in the market have been crying wolf for years on Apple, with all the same kinds of lame explanations that you are wheeling out to explain why profits are about to fall and product popularity is about to tank. And when profits keep going up, the criticism becomes that they are not going up fast enough. And when that doesn't pan out, it becomes that they surely cannot continue to go up fast enough.

    damonf
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  • Reply 68 of 75
    jonljonl Posts: 210member
    fallenjt said:

    Will iPhone be wiped out? Heck no. When iPhone penetration stabilizes, it's going to be periodic upgrades and it stays that way. People really forgot that Apple are expanding their enterprise services and capabilities....that would be their long term income. One example of this: IBM who got rid of most of their hardware businesses and concentrate on software  application and servives.

    Let's hope Apple does better than IBM, which has posted 14 straight quarters of YoY revenue declines.

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  • Reply 69 of 75
    Tim Cook stated on the most recent conference call that iPhone demand outpaced supply as of quarter end.   Two weeks later an analyst writes that Apple is cutting supply.  Those same analyst are neg short term but expect stock price to reach 130-150 within 12 months.  Wall Street currently punishes Apple because iPhone makes up 65% of profit but will also punish Apple in future if it does not continue to show double digit iPhone growth.  So despite the addition of a dividend, buyback, Apple Watch, 150 billion in earnings, eps growth and rev growth since 2012, the stock has actually gone down in mkt cap.  Just goes to show that the stock is not down because of cook and apple's financials.  Wall Street basically has put a top on the stock and looking for excuses to hold it there.  Supply chain, everybody owns Apple, everybody owns cell phone, no innovation, bend gate, maps gate,etc
    SpamSandwichpalominedamonf
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  • Reply 70 of 75
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member

    cnocbui said:

    As has already been pointed out to you, Apple's income is a one-trick-iPony. 
    what nonsense. apple's non-iPhone income is greater than most of the other tech players. even if iPhone were wiped out tomorrow apple's income would be fantastic. durr
    I know and agree, but iPhone sales underpin most of the current share price.  Apple's valuation in the market is mostly based on expected iPhone sales, which is why the share price is so sensitive to rumours and expectations concerning those sales.
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  • Reply 71 of 75
    latifbplatifbp Posts: 544member
    sog35 said:
    Well Mr Sog35, how about buying a few shares of Apple stock and then putting down a motion of no confidence in Tim Cook and the BOD for discussion at the AGM.
    Who knows, you might even get it passed. Ready to run the biggest company in the world then?
    If not, just shut up and sell any Apple kit you own. You obviously don't like the company, the products, the management, just about everything to do with the company,

    I love the company.
    They make the best products in the world.
    They make ridiculous profits.
    But the stock has been an absolute piece of shit since Tim Cook took over.

    I'm sorry but Tim Cook is just not elite CEO material.  The guy sounds like a clown and a wimp every time he tries to defend Apple. The guy has ZERO presence, ZERO authority. Wall Street pisses on his face constantly because they know he's spineless and he won't defend the company 99% of the time. Cook is a good COO, but a horrible CEO. That Wall Street still thinks Apple is only about the iPhone is shameful and sickening. And that falls DIRECTLY on the head of Cook.
    The stock tanked in2008 with Jobs at the helm when analysts also believed iPhone sales saturated
    damonf
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  • Reply 72 of 75
    SpamSandwichspamsandwich Posts: 33,407member
    jonl said:
    fallenjt said:

    Will iPhone be wiped out? Heck no. When iPhone penetration stabilizes, it's going to be periodic upgrades and it stays that way. People really forgot that Apple are expanding their enterprise services and capabilities....that would be their long term income. One example of this: IBM who got rid of most of their hardware businesses and concentrate on software  application and servives.

    Let's hope Apple does better than IBM, which has posted 14 straight quarters of YoY revenue declines.

    Hopefully making them a prime target for acquisition by Apple at some point. Watson would be a nice replacement for Siri.
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  • Reply 73 of 75
    robbyxrobbyx Posts: 479member
    fallenjt said:
    robbyx said:

    Yeah, I get that you're a fanboy in the extreme sense of the word.  That's about all I get.

    If iPhone and related services revenue went away, Apple would dramatically contract in size.  Hundreds of thousands of people around the world would lose jobs.  The spaceship campus would be a ghost ship.  Would Apple disappear?  No.  As you point out, they do have other revenue streams that are independent of the iPhone, but do you really think those would remain as healthy as they are today?  If the iPhone vanished, do you really think iPad sales would thrive?  Mac sales?  No.  Everything would suffer and Apple would be hollowed out.  Only the most diehard fanboy would suggest otherwise.

    Same for Google.  Same for Microsoft.  Same for any other company that were to suddenly lose the lion's share of its revenue and its hallmark/signature product.

    D'uh.
    Will iPhone be wiped out? Heck no. When iPhone penetration stabilizes, it's going to be periodic upgrades and it stays that way. People really forgot that Apple are expanding their enterprise services and capabilities....that would be their long term income. One example of this: IBM who got rid of most of their hardware businesses and concentrate on software  application and servives.

    Of course iPhone won't be wiped out.  I was simply replying to someone who suggested Apple would be just fine if that happened, which I think is ridiculous.

    Apple is expanding services and definitely making progress on the enterprise front.  I can't speak to the enterprise stuff so much, or the IBM deal, but services are still a rather weak area (quality, reliability...) for Apple and largely exist to enhance the iPhone experience.  Services revenue is a drop in the bucket compared to iPhone hardware revenue.  Services will never be a major revenue stream for Apple, but merely a way to add value to their hardware products, especially iPhone.

    Apple is a HARDWARE company with the best margins in the industry by a mile.  They aren't going to pull an IBM and focus on software and services.  Never going to happen.  And how is IBM doing, by the way?  As someone else pointed out, 14 quarters of year over year revenue declines.  Not good.

    Until Apple has another product that generates a significant chunk of revenue like iPhone, Apple will continue to equal iPhone in the eyes of analysts and the market in general.  When 70% of your revenue comes from one product and an additional chunk comes from services and accessories (Apple Watch, etc) that enhance that product, you're pretty much a one trick pony and more susceptible to FUD and market manipulation.
    edited January 2016
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  • Reply 74 of 75
    robbyxrobbyx Posts: 479member
    jonl said:
    Let's hope Apple does better than IBM, which has posted 14 straight quarters of YoY revenue declines.

    Hopefully making them a prime target for acquisition by Apple at some point. Watson would be a nice replacement for Siri.
    Maybe Siri would finally work.
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