Sorry Gene adding new band options to the existing watch doesn't make it an 'S' model. 'S' models are mostly internal changes and none of the rumors suggest new SiP for the watch.
If they hold an event for a 4-inch phone and watch bands then I think it will be time to call it a day. Hoping to see the new laptop line, and no impromptu comedy skits from young Mr Cue.
… though the secret handshake thing was very funny.
Being honest, Google beat WS estimates, when Apple do that it goes up too, fourth quarter beat market expectations and the stock went up.
Actually Apple stock has fucking gone down on just about any positive news, new releases in the past several years. It's almost a joke. Last years they beat guidance by a mile and it was meh (because those POS analyst had moved the goalpost at the last minute to make it meh) So, stop pulling crap out of thin air to justify what really can only be justified by psychology and not company fundamentals.
Google had a fracking PE much higher than Apple 3 years ago when Apple was about to make 150B in profits in the next 3 years, that's the facts Josu. So, you've can spare you're weak sauce analysis; it's the same crap Wall Street dribbles every year about Apple.
I'm just tired of it.
The fact is that very high PE companies crash way way way more often than lower ones; more even than their risk profile would entail. But, hey, this time is different.... I've lived through the god damn dot.com era and I've heard these idiocy before.
First better respect other people opinion, even more when, if you had taken your time and read my reply to sog35 in this very thread you would have seen that my opinion about high P/E stock risk is exactly the same as yours. And I was in the dot com era too.
Sorry to say that, but you acted like a jerk, if you want to judge my analysis skills take your time, click in my name and read all my replies and posts related to Apple stock woes. And probably you will notice that my opinion is more or less the same as yours.
OK, everybody have a bad day, I don't get it personal, don't get the "jerk" word too personal, peace. And read some posts before judging the overall opinion of somebody.
Actually Apple stock has fucking gone down on just about any positive news, new releases in the past several years. It's almost a joke. Last years they beat guidance by a mile and it was meh (because those POS analyst had moved the goalpost at the last minute to make it meh) So, stop pulling crap out of thin air to justify what really can only be justified by psychology and not company fundamentals.
Google had a fracking PE much higher than Apple 3 years ago when Apple was about to make 150B in profits in the next 3 years, that's the facts Josu. So, you've can spare you're weak sauce analysis; it's the same crap Wall Street dribbles every year about Apple.
I'm just tired of it.
The fact is that very high PE companies crash way way way more often than lower ones; more even than their risk profile would entail. But, hey, this time is different.... I've lived through the god damn dot.com era and I've heard these idiocy before.
First better respect other people opinion, even more when, if you had taken your time and read my reply to sog35 in this very thread you would have seen that my opinion about high P/E stock risk is exactly the same as yours. And I was in the dot com era too.
Sorry to say that, but you acted like a jerk, if you want to judge my analysis skills take your time, click in my name and read all my replies and posts related to Apple stock woes. And probably you will notice that my opinion is more or less the same as yours.
OK, everybody have a bad day, I don't get it personal, don't get the "jerk" word too personal, peace. And read some posts before judging the overall opinion of somebody.
Sog's "opinion" are all over the place so agreeing with him doesn mean much at all. The fact is you stated several things something that was demonstrably false; that's it. Everything else is just a big handwave to distract from that. Magic thoughts and invention get push back.
Apple announces and it almost always goes down; if that occurs for a long time, your PE stalls or goes down cause it has a cumulative effect. That's how you get crazy PE's like Amazon; a slow continuous march up the insanity ladder. They'd need to control all retail worldwide for it to make sense; not going to happen.
Most people who "invest" in stocks, and especially in Apple, should just sell because their whole reasoning for holding any stock almost never makes sense. I'm invested in fundamentals and long games since the 1980s; served me very well.
Without buyback Apple would be sitting on 320B dollars (220B without it)... (that's how much crazy money they've made in the last 7 years). Anyone really think the value of the present value of Apple's future earning is really 300B, when they're making 60B in profits per year? That's basically what those "genius" analysts are telling us and the market is pricing Apple as... Could only be true if Apple's profits collapse by 2/3 in the next 6 years. Considering that would means selling no Iphones at all; that's a pretty crazy assumption, yet there it is.
Sorry Gene adding new band options to the existing watch doesn't make it an 'S' model. 'S' models are mostly internal changes and none of the rumors suggest new SiP for the watch.
If they hold an event for a 4-inch phone and watch bands then I think it will be time to call it a day. Hoping to see the new laptop line, and no impromptu comedy skits from young Mr Cue.
While I don't agree that it will be "time to call it a day" and Apple is on the downward slide, I do agree that the content would be "light" for a media event. Best just to have an online reveal if that is the case.
I think it is really good for Apple to get back to spring events on a regular basis, so I hope it is the case. I never thought pushing all products to the calendar Q4 (essentially) holiday season was a good idea. While it is the prime gift-giving time in the western world, people do only have so much money, or inclination to buy stuff, at one time. A spring event balances out the marketing value of events, and provides new products for purchase on other holiday events (Mother's and Father's day in some markets, catching birthdays in that part of the year, graduations, etc).
Given the levelling off of iPhone sales at the moment, keeping the smaller 4" design is important to ensure an option for those that just don't want bigger. And moving this to a spring event can make that work - flagships of the newer sizes (which majority I expect want given they are more mobile computers than phones) in the fall to maximize sales of those higher end modles, but have the 4" update in spring. Keeps the iPhone interest alive and also takes some of the wind out of competitors that have their launches in spring.
If Apple only brings out new Apple Watch band options, unless they are something "really new & newsworthy" (like health bands, or extended battery bands), then I think that is a mistake. Apple Watch has great promise, but to generate the necessary interest to get new users to the product, they need to provide updates every year (and please - just because people don't upgrade every year is a completely non-sensical reason not to have new versions every year). Get better battery life, GPS, faster internals, slightly updated design, etc. - and you will get both upgrades and new users to the product. The iPhone didn't start the "tick-tock" cycle with case design until the 5th version (4s). And moving AW to the same fall update as iPhone / iPad / AppleTV / iMacs is, again, may just take sales away from those items.
Apple use to have the Macworld keynote in January to launch new products early in the year and set the tone for the year. Now it feels like everything waits till near the end and just adds to the gloom talk of Apple not innovating.
An event early in the year that concentrates on small things would be a great way for them to set the tone. Let the the big things stay in late in the year, and software WWDC, but after the holidays and in the spring people want something to talk about. The only story Apple is offering at the moment is wait till later, is there any surprise confidence is waning.
Small things are where the really technical innovation lies anyway so to me make the prefect early year event. Small things let them court controversy with things like removing the
headphone port, or the sim card or the home button down the track. Which lets them control the storyline by offering an answer to that controversy. Yet it still leaves it open for larger things to still have these features.
Munster doesn't want Apple reclaiming the narrative like this so not surprised he'd be trying to talk it down.
By Small things I mean:- Retina Macbooks/Pros, Mac Pro, Mac Mini, iPod nano & shuffle
and "One small thing" the all new iPhone minus/mini/nano - they should decouple it from the iPhone numbering so it can really explore small tech.
A contemporary 5s would be no small thing. Nobody knows yet knows what market or demographic it's designed for. I don't think Apple is out to capture the "mid-range" market any more than the low-end market.
It also seems doubtful that Apple could update the 5s design significantly and make it look like the 7 iPhones. Battery life would probably be severely impacted, given the smaller case. The 6 Plus and 6s Plus have better battery life than their previous counterparts. It looks like the 6s actually has slightly less battery life with the Taptic engine, than the 6 without it. So I wonder how a 5-sized will deal with that. No Force Touch? Maybe? Probably?
If an new 5s, whatever it may be called, isn't very nearly the same as the next iPhones or at least on par with the current 6 phones, it will be seen as low-end by a lot of critics who give no thought to size related design constraints. It will be seen and called the new 5c and I don't think Apple wants that. The 5c did ok for them, though not nearly what their other phones did. Dubbed a failure almost universally, a lot of competitors would have loved to have such a "failure".
It makes sense to me that Apple would have a separate event for a 4" model to give it more attention and not be overshadowed by the Next Big iPhone. As someone previously said, a lot of 5s owners will be out of contract in/around March. A separate earlier event makes upgrading to a 5se (or whatever it might be called) an easier choice, provided it has some contemporary performance. The 5s was a noticeable step up in performance to the 5. Most users wouldn't want to feel like they're taking a step back in getting the 5se, if even if it offered some improvement.
Apple seems to realize that a lot of people really like the 5/5s size and design. If so then it's practical and profitable to keep it in the line-up and update it as much as possible. It will probably never have the same processor as current larger phones simply be cause Apple can't make enough fast enough for those phone until months after a launch. Having a separate launch for a 5se eases supply and manufacturing considerations.
I want the 5se to be exactly on par with it's bigger brothers. That won't happen. I am willing to accept one that is all that it can be with consideration to it's size and current technology. I get that some sacrifices will have to be made. What would be disappointing is if this turns out to be the phone equivalent of the entry level mini or iMac, compared to their previous predecessors.
I may be wrong on some of this or all of it. One thing I'm certain of- March 15 will have the answers. (That could be wrong too!)
Comments
… though the secret handshake thing was very funny.
Sorry to say that, but you acted like a jerk, if you want to judge my analysis skills take your time, click in my name and read all my replies and posts related to Apple stock woes. And probably you will notice that my opinion is more or less the same as yours.
OK, everybody have a bad day, I don't get it personal, don't get the "jerk" word too personal, peace. And read some posts before judging the overall opinion of somebody.
Come back to earth Gene.
The fact is you stated several things something that was demonstrably false; that's it. Everything else is just a big handwave to distract from that.
Magic thoughts and invention get push back.
Apple announces and it almost always goes down; if that occurs for a long time, your PE stalls or goes down cause it has a cumulative effect.
That's how you get crazy PE's like Amazon; a slow continuous march up the insanity ladder.
They'd need to control all retail worldwide for it to make sense; not going to happen.
Most people who "invest" in stocks, and especially in Apple, should just sell because their whole reasoning for holding any stock almost never makes sense.
I'm invested in fundamentals and long games since the 1980s; served me very well.
Without buyback Apple would be sitting on 320B dollars (220B without it)... (that's how much crazy money they've made in the last 7 years).
Anyone really think the value of the present value of Apple's future earning is really 300B, when they're making 60B in profits per year?
That's basically what those "genius" analysts are telling us and the market is pricing Apple as... Could only be true if Apple's profits collapse by 2/3 in the next 6 years.
Considering that would means selling no Iphones at all; that's a pretty crazy assumption, yet there it is.
I think it is really good for Apple to get back to spring events on a regular basis, so I hope it is the case. I never thought pushing all products to the calendar Q4 (essentially) holiday season was a good idea. While it is the prime gift-giving time in the western world, people do only have so much money, or inclination to buy stuff, at one time. A spring event balances out the marketing value of events, and provides new products for purchase on other holiday events (Mother's and Father's day in some markets, catching birthdays in that part of the year, graduations, etc).
Given the levelling off of iPhone sales at the moment, keeping the smaller 4" design is important to ensure an option for those that just don't want bigger. And moving this to a spring event can make that work - flagships of the newer sizes (which majority I expect want given they are more mobile computers than phones) in the fall to maximize sales of those higher end modles, but have the 4" update in spring. Keeps the iPhone interest alive and also takes some of the wind out of competitors that have their launches in spring.
If Apple only brings out new Apple Watch band options, unless they are something "really new & newsworthy" (like health bands, or extended battery bands), then I think that is a mistake. Apple Watch has great promise, but to generate the necessary interest to get new users to the product, they need to provide updates every year (and please - just because people don't upgrade every year is a completely non-sensical reason not to have new versions every year). Get better battery life, GPS, faster internals, slightly updated design, etc. - and you will get both upgrades and new users to the product. The iPhone didn't start the "tick-tock" cycle with case design until the 5th version (4s). And moving AW to the same fall update as iPhone / iPad / AppleTV / iMacs is, again, may just take sales away from those items.
Now it feels like everything waits till near the end and just adds to the gloom talk of Apple not innovating.
An event early in the year that concentrates on small things would be a great way for them to set the tone.
Let the the big things stay in late in the year, and software WWDC, but after the holidays and in the spring people want something to talk about.
The only story Apple is offering at the moment is wait till later, is there any surprise confidence is waning.
Small things are where the really technical innovation lies anyway so to me make the prefect early year event.
Small things let them court controversy with things like removing the headphone port, or the sim card or the home button down the track.
Which lets them control the storyline by offering an answer to that controversy.
Yet it still leaves it open for larger things to still have these features.
Munster doesn't want Apple reclaiming the narrative like this so not surprised he'd be trying to talk it down.
By Small things I mean:-
Retina Macbooks/Pros, Mac Pro, Mac Mini, iPod nano & shuffle
and "One small thing" the all new iPhone minus/mini/nano
- they should decouple it from the iPhone numbering so it can really explore small tech.
It also seems doubtful that Apple could update the 5s design significantly and make it look like the 7 iPhones. Battery life would probably be severely impacted, given the smaller case. The 6 Plus and 6s Plus have better battery life than their previous counterparts. It looks like the 6s actually has slightly less battery life with the Taptic engine, than the 6 without it. So I wonder how a 5-sized will deal with that. No Force Touch? Maybe? Probably?
If an new 5s, whatever it may be called, isn't very nearly the same as the next iPhones or at least on par with the current 6 phones, it will be seen as low-end by a lot of critics who give no thought to size related design constraints. It will be seen and called the new 5c and I don't think Apple wants that. The 5c did ok for them, though not nearly what their other phones did. Dubbed a failure almost universally, a lot of competitors would have loved to have such a "failure".
It makes sense to me that Apple would have a separate event for a 4" model to give it more attention and not be overshadowed by the Next Big iPhone. As someone previously said, a lot of 5s owners will be out of contract in/around March. A separate earlier event makes upgrading to a 5se (or whatever it might be called) an easier choice, provided it has some contemporary performance. The 5s was a noticeable step up in performance to the 5. Most users wouldn't want to feel like they're taking a step back in getting the 5se, if even if it offered some improvement.
Apple seems to realize that a lot of people really like the 5/5s size and design. If so then it's practical and profitable to keep it in the line-up and update it as much as possible. It will probably never have the same processor as current larger phones simply be cause Apple can't make enough fast enough for those phone until months after a launch. Having a separate launch for a 5se eases supply and manufacturing considerations.
I want the 5se to be exactly on par with it's bigger brothers. That won't happen. I am willing to accept one that is all that it can be with consideration to it's size and current technology. I get that some sacrifices will have to be made. What would be disappointing is if this turns out to be the phone equivalent of the entry level mini or iMac, compared to their previous predecessors.
I may be wrong on some of this or all of it. One thing I'm certain of- March 15 will have the answers. (That could be wrong too!)