Come on ATT and the likes. This is a direct result of your stupid ATT Next style plans.
No, it isn't. The article is the result of sloppy interpretation of the data.
Where do all the two year old iPhones go when replaced with new?
Assuming a 2 year upgrade cycle: In fiscal 2012 Apple sold 125 Million iPhone 4S units. 85 Million more than the iPhone 3GS. In fiscal 2013 Apple sold 150 Million iPhone 5 units, 25 Million more than the iPhone 4 In fiscal 2014 Apple sold 169 Million iPhone 5S units, 44 Million more than the iPhone 4S. In fiscal 2015 Apple sold 231 Million iPhone 6 units, 81 Million more than the iPhone 5. In fiscal 2016 Apple is on track to sell 225 Million iPhone 6S units, 56 Million more than the iPhone 5S
In each example above Apple sold MORE iPhones than were sold in the two year earlier period. If the upgrade cycle was lengthening the number of new models sold would be contracting to LESS than sold 2 years earlier. Clearly that is not the case.
Stated another way, each new iteration of the iPhone is being purchased by 100% of NEW iPhones purchased 2 years earlier, and then some.
So lets go back to my first question "Where do all the two year old iPhones go when replaced with new?". Where do they go, they are sold as used or handed down. In either case the new owners were not original buyers of NEW handsets. By definition they are not UPGRADERS, even if they were 'upgrading' an even older iPhone.
The fact is that Apple has been EXPANDING the base of 2 year upgraders with each new release, including the iPhone 6S. The 2 year growth rate has admittedly slowed for 2 reasons. The first is due to a fairly constant unit growth against an ever increasing base. If the numerator remains constant while the denominator increases the fraction will decrease. In fiscal 2015 the iPhone's "numerator" increased 81 Million units over that of the iPhone 5. However, the denominator (installed base) grew even faster, resulting in a lower growth RATE.
The second reason for "slowing" iPhone unit sales is the dramatic increase in value of the US% (~20%) against foreign currencies over the past 15 months. In order to protect the US$ price of the iPhone Apple had to increase the price (in local currency) around the world. THIS, more than anything else has depressed iPhone unit sales.
Bottom line is that iPhone more than 2 years old should not be included in any upgrade rate study, BECAUSE THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY (very nearly all) OF THE OWNERS OF THOSE iPHONES ARE NOT THE ORIGINAL BUYERS. Amore accurate study of the upgrade cycle would be of the number of original buyers that have not upgraded after 2 years. Without reliable data I can only speculate but, I'll bet that rate remains constant as a percent of the 2 year base.
Huh, the Iphone 6 came out 1.8 years ago. WTF are you talking about? (and the 5s didn't look AT ALL like it).
Do you know what your saying or just like inane crap?
The S6 and S7 look just about the same. In fact most company's high end phone look the same 2 years running these days.
The SE is a new iPhone and it looks like the 5. How is he wrong?
You basically sidestepped the god damn argument. Why the frack aren't already on ignore yet (probably because of the reset a while back), well going back there.
People keep their cars much longer than they keep their cell phones, but you don't hear Ford or Toyota say they're only going to release new models every three years. Even if people keep their phones for five years, doesn't that mean that in any given year 20% of the people will be looking to upgrade? Why ask them to choose between a (potentially) three year old iPhone and a brand new Samsung?
Cars each new year have almost no difference (not even cosmetic ones), they're really changed every many years (about 7); so not sure what the hell your even talking about.
The Iphone, even when the external doesn't change, changes a lot more than cars does. If they're talking mostly about the form factor changing every 3 years instead of 2, that doesn't mean everything else doesn't improve a lot.
I hate to say it, but I may have become one of those slower to upgrade customers. I bought an iPhone 4 the day it was released. Then a 5 the day it was released. Then a 6 Plus the day it was released... butI don't think I'll be upgrading this fall. My iPhone 6 Plus still runs like a beast. The screen is incredible. And thanks to the leather case, it's still in pristine condition. Sure, I still want to upgrade, but I don't have a reason to, so I probably won't.
The SE is a new iPhone and it looks like the 5. How is he wrong?
You basically sidestepped the god damn argument. Why the frack aren't already on ignore yet (probably because of the reset a while back), well going back there.
It's a part of the argument that went over your head. The OP wasn't wrong when he said a new iPhone looks like one that's 4 years old.
Comments
Where do all the two year old iPhones go when replaced with new?
Assuming a 2 year upgrade cycle:
In fiscal 2012 Apple sold 125 Million iPhone 4S units. 85 Million more than the iPhone 3GS.
In fiscal 2013 Apple sold 150 Million iPhone 5 units, 25 Million more than the iPhone 4
In fiscal 2014 Apple sold 169 Million iPhone 5S units, 44 Million more than the iPhone 4S.
In fiscal 2015 Apple sold 231 Million iPhone 6 units, 81 Million more than the iPhone 5.
In fiscal 2016 Apple is on track to sell 225 Million iPhone 6S units, 56 Million more than the iPhone 5S
In each example above Apple sold MORE iPhones than were sold in the two year earlier period. If the upgrade cycle was lengthening the number of new models sold would be contracting to LESS than sold 2 years earlier. Clearly that is not the case.
Stated another way, each new iteration of the iPhone is being purchased by 100% of NEW iPhones purchased 2 years earlier, and then some.
So lets go back to my first question "Where do all the two year old iPhones go when replaced with new?". Where do they go, they are sold as used or handed down. In either case the new owners were not original buyers of NEW handsets. By definition they are not UPGRADERS, even if they were 'upgrading' an even older iPhone.
The fact is that Apple has been EXPANDING the base of 2 year upgraders with each new release, including the iPhone 6S. The 2 year growth rate has admittedly slowed for 2 reasons. The first is due to a fairly constant unit growth against an ever increasing base. If the numerator remains constant while the denominator increases the fraction will decrease. In fiscal 2015 the iPhone's "numerator" increased 81 Million units over that of the iPhone 5. However, the denominator (installed base) grew even faster, resulting in a lower growth RATE.
The second reason for "slowing" iPhone unit sales is the dramatic increase in value of the US% (~20%) against foreign currencies over the past 15 months. In order to protect the US$ price of the iPhone Apple had to increase the price (in local currency) around the world. THIS, more than anything else has depressed iPhone unit sales.
Bottom line is that iPhone more than 2 years old should not be included in any upgrade rate study, BECAUSE THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY (very nearly all) OF THE OWNERS OF THOSE iPHONES ARE NOT THE ORIGINAL BUYERS. Amore accurate study of the upgrade cycle would be of the number of original buyers that have not upgraded after 2 years. Without reliable data I can only speculate but, I'll bet that rate remains constant as a percent of the 2 year base.
Why is this data not taken as a sign Apple needs an iPhone 7 minus in September instead of changes to finance models?
The Iphone, even when the external doesn't change, changes a lot more than cars does.
If they're talking mostly about the form factor changing every 3 years instead of 2, that doesn't mean everything else doesn't improve a lot.