Kuo: Apple Watch shipments to decline in 2016 despite new models, lower prices

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  • Reply 21 of 46
    SoliSoli Posts: 10,033member
    jgreg728 said:
    thrang said:
    Whatever. All I know is I see more and more Apple Watches in the wild every month, and I'm certain this was always viewed by Apple as a slow long burn that accelerates over time. What most don't understand is the "killer app" is the Apple ecosystem itself.
    Personally, I'm still waiting for them to thin the casing a bit and add LTE.
    1) You're going to be waiting a long time unless some amazing advancement in battery and/or cellular radio tech miraculously occurs. Even now, just adding GPS for when Watch is not tethered to and iPhone has caused a battery and casing to increase in size.

    2) Have use the Apple Watch. It may look thick in the pictures with the slim bands, but on your wrist it's not unsightly, thick, or in anyway ungainly looking. If you'e seriously interested I'd personally give one a shot for a couple weeks to see how you like it. My initial remarks have no wavered since first getting the Series 0: It's unnecessary, yet indispensible.
    watto_cobramacxpresssuddenly newtonnetmagenolamacguyadybkudu
  • Reply 22 of 46
    As he himself says: he believes. He doesn't know. That basically puts him on the level of an electric monk. Minus the horse,of course. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 23 of 46
    Kuo's statements are not unexpected. It's simply part of the pessimistic outlook that always surrounds Apple's product sales. I pretty much try to ignore these people predictions because I believe things can go either way. Tesla's share price jumped today because they delivered more cars than Wall Street projected. It's a guessing game but I'm never sure of what these guesses are based upon. With Apple it doesn't really matter. Even if Apple's iPhone sales are better than expected, Apple's share price isn't going to move like Tesla's share price. The way I see it, owning Apple is a risk with the share price trending down more than up. Almost everyone knows Apple is selling products into over-crowded markets, so Apple is basically performing into a headwind. I like AppleWatch as a health device but I don't expect it to break any sales records. Aetna's program was seen as a joke by Wall Street, so there's nothing much likely to come of it. 50,000 AppleWatches being bought is nice but that's just a drop in the bucket as far as Apple's revenue is concerned. Wall Street has never understood the purpose of AppleWatch, so that's the end of it.
  • Reply 24 of 46
    adamcadamc Posts: 582member
    Take a look around and face reality.  Not many people care to buy or wear an Apple Watch, compared to the millions that use an iPhone.  The smart watch category is a niche market and the masses choose not to buy one.  That is just the way it is, and Kuo is pretty much on target with the Apple market.  The Apple Watch is lumped in with iPods and AppleTVs because it is nothing more than an accessory product.  So Apple never has to release the numbers because it is combined with other accessory sales.  Smart move on Apple's part for the financial statement.
    Just bought the series 2 and love it.
    watto_cobrabadmonk
  • Reply 25 of 46
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 4,297member
    Where is the "breaking" tag?
    macxpress
  • Reply 26 of 46
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member

    Kuo is likely wrong because he missed two very important points:

    1) OS3! He totally overlooked the fact that OS3 is a bigger improvement than the new hardware. Specifically: He criticizes the watch for a lack of "killer apps". That was the fault of the OS not the watch. Previous OS's prevented third party apps from accessing phone data such as heart rate. That made their fitness trackers (that function well on the IPhone) essentially worthless on the watch. OS fixed that problem and the lack of "killer apps" will be changing dramatically.

    2) Apple shifted tactics. In the original release they pushed two areas: Fashion and Health as defined by the medical community. The Apple geeks completely missed the community that FitBit targets. That community is now being directly targeted. For instance: Runner's World just announced that Apple Watch is now a valid fitness tracker on par or better than any other product out there (which refutes Kua;s contention about FitBit)... So now the debates over which tracker is superior boils down to nitpicking details such as which screen is better or whether touch-screen is better than physical buttons...

    But, the real strength of the Apple Watch is that it is strong in all three areas: Fashion, Medical type health tracking (which will be expanded) and now sports/fitness tracking. No other wearable can target all three of those areas as well as expanding smart phone functionality (such as music) to the wrist.

    Further, another strength of the watch (that is currently listed as a weakness) is its partnership with the IPhone. No other wearable can share functionality with a smart phone in order to expand its capabilities. For example: For instance, while driving, can a FitBit tap you on the wrist when its time to make turn or control your car's radio?

    edited October 2016 watto_cobranetmagepscooter63tcuprof
  • Reply 28 of 46
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    Kuo does aweful with numbers. 
    edited October 2016 watto_cobra
  • Reply 29 of 46
    macxpressmacxpress Posts: 5,415member
    jgreg728 said:
    thrang said:
    Whatever. All I know is I see more and more Apple Watches in the wild every month, and I'm certain this was always viewed by Apple as a slow long burn that accelerates over time. What most don't understand is the "killer app" is the Apple ecosystem itself.
    Agreed. Especially the sport models. Although I have seen a guy at my local gym bring a stainless steel one there with the elastomer band! But yeah I'm definitely seeing them in the wild more and more as time goes on. We'll see how this does. Personally, I'm still waiting for them to thin the casing a bit and add LTE. Although the S2 IS a tempting buy....

    What difference does it make if the case is thinner? The case is fine. It doesn't need to get thinner and that would provide absolutely no extra functionality what so ever. Apple could give you a thinner case, if you want less battery life. In case you didn't know, the Apple Watch 2 case is actually slightly thicker. (no pun intended)

    Why would anyone want LTE on it? Not only will it suck the life out of the tiny battery it has, but would also require yet another data plan. I can't speak for anyone else, but I'm not paying for a 2nd data plan just for my watch when it can use the data plan on my phone like it does. The phone is never out of range of my watch. I doubt Apple will ever put LTE in the Apple Watch. Its simply to necessary. The Watch is an accessory to the phone. Its not meant to be a standalone product. 
    edited October 2016 watto_cobra
  • Reply 30 of 46
    macxpressmacxpress Posts: 5,415member
    I believe this, and I doubt Steve jobs would be too happy with the Apple Watch design. I have the first gen and other than fitness tracking and apple pay it's not a super compelling device, even with watch os 3. It makes more sense to whip out my iPhone to check and respond to notifications and apps rather than fumble around with the tiny screen. I feel like a walking advertisement as an apple lover which I don't like and I don't get that feeling at all using my iPhone. I enjoy using my apple products but the Apple watch as of right now is a mass market failure (as is the entire smartwatch category) and don't really see any need to ever buy another one in the future. I don't care for the fitbit wristbands either but their dashboard app is way better than Apples fitness tracking interface I see tons of people using them because of the simplicity it offers along with not being tied down to an Apple or Android ecosystem. I believe anyone who's serious into fitness and isn't an Apple fanboy will buy a better alternative dedicated to fitness tracking and not a smartwatch to wear all day.
    Pardon my French....But, who really gives a shit what Steve Jobs would think of the Apple Watch?! My god, I cannot stand these if Steve Jobs were here comments. They're so fucking stupid! He's gone and has been for 5yrs. Give it a rest, please! We don't know what he'd think of it (or any other product), and we don't know if the watch would exist, what it would look like, function like, etc. Its stupid to even think of it because nobody knows or ever will know. We all need to stop with these if Steve Jobs were here comments. 

    Maybe the Apple Watch isn't useful to you, but you know, maybe you don't remember but the first few iPhones weren't that useful either. There was a lot of hype around them because they were new and cool but in the end they really didn't do a lot, especially compared to what they do today. Its called progression and it will progress. Give it time. Nothing is great immediately from the start. 
    edited October 2016 watto_cobranetmagenolamacguypscooter63
  • Reply 31 of 46
    I believe this, and I doubt Steve jobs would be too happy with the Apple Watch design. I have the first gen and other than fitness tracking and apple pay it's not a super compelling device, even with watch os 3. It makes more sense to whip out my iPhone to check and respond to notifications and apps rather than fumble around with the tiny screen. I feel like a walking advertisement as an apple lover which I don't like and I don't get that feeling at all using my iPhone. I enjoy using my apple products but the Apple watch as of right now is a mass market failure (as is the entire smartwatch category) and don't really see any need to ever buy another one in the future. I don't care for the fitbit wristbands either but their dashboard app is way better than Apples fitness tracking interface I see tons of people using them because of the simplicity it offers along with not being tied down to an Apple or Android ecosystem. I believe anyone who's serious into fitness and isn't an Apple fanboy will buy a better alternative dedicated to fitness tracking and not a smartwatch to wear all day.
    Then why the bloody hell did you buy it?  Or even more importantly why the bloody hell are you still wearing it if you think you are a walking advertisement?  Sell it dude...but you haven't so there must still be something you like about it.

    And I'm not sure I understand why the Apple Watch needs to be compared to the iPhone as far as adoption and sales go.  It is an accessory that works with the iPhone or stand alone.   But it is a different category and product.  Sales numbers do not have to be the same.  It would be like comparing Bluetooth Keyboards to Laptop sales...they work together or separately...no one should expect the sales numbers or adoption to be the same.

    As far as what the fitness folks buy and wear...well that is their choice.  The Apple Watch is clearly a more complex product than the FitBit and it will take some time to smooth out their interface, etc. but they did a lot with WatchOS 3 and I think they have made a huge gains.  At this point, I think for most things they match FitBit.  And now that Corporate America is getting on board (Aetna)...I think you will see the adoption and sales skyrocket.

    In the end, I still use my original Apple Watch and love it.  I use it for it to tell me the time and my "Killer" app of all things is the built-in timer.  I use that like 6-7 times a day.  It is amazing how much it helps me.  And once I got a call why while driving and it was so easy to answer the call right from my phone....very safe too as my eyes never left the road.


      
    watto_cobratcuprof
  • Reply 32 of 46
    Also, what part about the Apple Watch do you think Steve Jobs would not like?  Why do people always like to speak about what he would or would not have liked?  How would you even know something like that???  And thinking about it from another angle, maybe there are a ton of things he would have liked no?  
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 33 of 46
    What this Ming guy failed to mention is Apple not only sell watch, they also sell bands. And I already paid for bands more than a watch itself.
    edited October 2016 watto_cobra
  • Reply 34 of 46
    adamc said:
    Take a look around and face reality.  Not many people care to buy or wear an Apple Watch, compared to the millions that use an iPhone.  The smart watch category is a niche market and the masses choose not to buy one.  That is just the way it is, and Kuo is pretty much on target with the Apple market.  The Apple Watch is lumped in with iPods and AppleTVs because it is nothing more than an accessory product.  So Apple never has to release the numbers because it is combined with other accessory sales.  Smart move on Apple's part for the financial statement.
    Just bought the series 2 and love it.
    Congrats! I just bought a new Series 1 and love it, not a jogger, don't care about GPS, never took my other waterproof watch swimming, and the fewer nits won't bother me, but the £100 lower price was a very nice feature indeed! I'm a watch wearer, so this to me is a nice watch with other cool useful features, but mainly it's a watch.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 35 of 46
    spice-boyspice-boy Posts: 1,450member
    rob53 said:
    So he pushes Fitbit while badmouthing Apple Watch. Of course, there's nothing Apple or the SEC can do about his statements, although I'd love to see his paid investors go after his when he's wrong. This is the problem with investment, everybody guesses and nobody is held responsible for anything. Of course, AI could just as easily not give this guy any space of their website but they always do.
    Investors beware is probably the best way to approach any advice like this. Most business' have a good idea where earning are heading each year or quarter based on internal and consumer trends. I wish people would stop hating on the messenger because they don't like the message, of course there a some real hacks doing this job more for click bait than sound investment advice. 
  • Reply 36 of 46
    Why do they keep,publishing his worthless dribble?
    And we keep reading?
  • Reply 37 of 46
    I heard people say the new watch and os are a lot better then before,  so I assume that would translate to higher sales.  But for me, I have yet to see anyone wear an Apple Watch. I have never seen anyone with one yet in public,  and they are very nocticeable on a person wrist from what I can tell. 
  • Reply 38 of 46
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member
    Kuo also predicts a significant decline in iPhone sales by what was it, 75/80 million? 

    Here is my personal prediction: within 6 months Kuo will lose his often-cited title as "the most accurate predictor of Apple in the world."

    palominepscooter63
  • Reply 39 of 46
    jbdragonjbdragon Posts: 2,246member
    It's true when they say "You don't know what you're missing" from the things I hear from people about the Apple watch. When you don't own one, you really have no idea what you are missing. I'm not a watch person, and still not a watch person, but I am a Apple Watch person and wear my Apple Watch every day. I miss not having it on me. I think if anything, the Apple Watch should do even better. Those that like I was going to, waiting it out for the second generation version. Of course it's a accessory product to the iPhone. It makes things much better having a iPhone. It's not a phone replacement and that makes no sense anyway. Why would anyone want to replace their big screen phone for a tiny screen? As they say, you're on your desktop for hours, Smartphone for minutes and smartwatch for seconds. That's really how to have to look at things. For example instead of pulling out my phone to see why it dinged me and then get distracted and start looking at twitter or facebook or whatever else, it's a quick glance at my watch which takes a few seconds and I'm done. Back in the real world instead of being yet another phone zombie.
    nolamacguyGeorgeBMacwilliamlondon
  • Reply 40 of 46
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    Templeton said:
    Who is tnis guy! And what does " well connected" mean? I'd drop him like a hot potato
    some dude with supply chain leak contacts. why that now makes him a sales analyst is unknown. 


    pscooter63
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