Personally, I think it has more to do with the fact that these phones have become quite powerful and people are upgrading less. Now that the carriers have changed course with regards to contracts, it doesn't make much sense to auto-upgrade when your "contract" ends; once the phone is paid off, that amount is removed from your monthly payment. Previously, of course I upgraded as soon as my 2-year contract ended, why continue to pay that "free phone tax"?
Unless you really have to, as in your phone is broken and doesn't work, I think it's foolish to get a current iPhone after the 6 month point. The phone is half a year old and the new one is coming out in 6 months. Can't wait that long? Well it seems maybe people are waiting that long now now.
The thing is, the iPhone 7 is a 3 year old design. Which is a first for iPhone that generally gets updated every 2 years externally. Why get a new iPhone now that more then likely looks the same as you have now instead of just waiting it out and getting a new iPhone with a new design?
AppleInsider said: Hints of a modest update can prompt people to wait even longer...
Since the original iPhone I upgraded every two years because of the subsidy. iPhone 7 was the first time I skipped the 2 year cycle and there is a good chance I will skip the next model as well. I am perfectly content with the functionality of my iPhone 6 which is now unlocked. It is in perfect condition, no scratches, battery still lasts all day, runs the most recent OS, etc. At this point there are only modest updates. For me there is no compelling reason to upgrade.
People shopping for a smartphone in July, for instance, might consider holding off if a significant iPhone update is predicted for September. Hints of a modest update can prompt people to wait even longer, or simply buy an Android phone.
I seriously doubt the people would “buy an Android phone” because they didn’t want to wait for Apple. That’s strictly a nerd sort of mentality.
Except that surveys and polls have shown that people do exactly that. Or a very recent example of the reverse behavior: during the Note 7 debacle, lots of people who wanted to buy the Galaxy Note 7 bought iPhones instead, and lots of THOSE are either buying the Samsung Galaxy 8+ or are waiting on the Galaxy Note 8. Two things that you are overlooking:
1) Carriers make it VERY EASY for their longtime customers to switch/upgrade devices. The reason is that it prevents the competition (carriers I mean) from using the lure of a new device to get people to switch.
2) 90% of the population doesn't care about the fanboy platform wars. Most people switch back and forth between the platforms. The vast majority of iPhone owners have owned an Android phone in the past and vice versa. The media only reports the number of people who switch from Android to iPhone each quarter ... while ignoring that an equal number of people switch from iPhone to Android, and that a huge number of people own BOTH iPhones and Androids with one being their daily driver and the other a spare, or one being for professional use and the other for personal use. That is why I always take the "I once owned a Samsung and LG phone and it was so horrible ... the stutter, the lag, the crashing apps ... it was a total nightmare but when I switched to an iPhone it was like a new lease on life!" comments on Apple blogs with a grain of salt (because anonymous unverifiable Internet comments that can be made with no repercussions are exactly that). It does not come close to matching actual market statistics and patterns. If it did you WOULD NOT see AT&T, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile treat iPhones and major Android phones nearly equally. (This was not always the case by the way ... I remember when Android phones were a distinct stepchildren to the iPhone and Nokia phones to carriers, and also when carriers were quite antagonistic to Google.)
So as the average consumer hasn't been a loyal Apple fan who has only bought Apple products for the past 20 years but is instead someone who owned an Android phone 3 years ago before buying an iPhone 2 years ago - or vice versa - getting a Samsung Galaxy to use for 6 months or so until they can switch to an iPhone at the cost of only like $50 - $100 bucks (or even for free) from their carrier is not exactly a nausea-inducing thought, but rather is a routine business transaction for your very friends and neighbors.
I stopped taking you seriously after you stated,
"...a very recent example of the reverse behavior: during the Note 7 debacle, lots of people who wanted to buy the Galaxy Note 7 bought iPhones instead,"
You're suggesting that switching to IPhone after the Note 7 debacle is equivalent behavior to switching away from the iPhone to Andriod because there's a significant new iPhone rumored but not yet available. That's very muddy thinking.
You then go on to state,
"...an equal number of people switch from iPhone to Android,"
and
"Most people switch back and forth between the platforms."
These are statements that you cannot possibly defend with actual numbers. If an equal number of people switch away from iPhone to Andriod as switch to iPhone from Andriod, then that implies the entire increase in tje iPhone user base is due to people switching to iPhone from a feature phone or buying an iPhone as their first phone. But this is refuted by Tim Cook's own words, and you'll be aware that he has more information on the topic than you do, plus he is legally obligated to speak the truth. He doesn't refer to Andriod as a training ground for the iPhone for no reason.
The statement suggesting most people switch back and forth carries two implications. First, it excludes all those who have switched only once between platforms. I am in that camp, as I began on Andriod and switched to iPhone, and never switched again. That's not 'back and forth,' it's just forth. Second, the word 'most' implies that more than 50% of people are doing this activity. I'd say 'most' implies significantly more than 50%, otherwise, if the number were near the 50% range you'd have been more clear to say, 'a majority,' but you used the word, 'most.' The notion that most smartphone users in the Android and iPhone universe switch back and forth is incredible to the point of being absurd. Thus, your arguments and knowledge of these markets cannot be taken seriously.
But, you were at least honest enough to offer a hint to your readers in this statement,
"because anonymous unverifiable Internet comments that can be made with no repercussions are exactly that"
Thanks for at least warning your readers regarding your own statements.
I just wish Apple would put the camera lens to the middle so I don't keep accidentally putting my finger on the lens when I'm taking a video. And Apple is almost worth 800 billion. Tim Cook needs to stop whining.
The always Apple-friendly blog PatentlyApple has a surprisingly different take, not-quite supporting Mr Cook on why Apple sales might be a bit softer than expected, China in particular.
One excerpt:
"The excuses about the iPhone's performance in China were painful to hear. Cook blamed it in part on a currency issue. Then it was how Hong Kong was down because tourism was down and then latter, blamed it on iPhone rumors for making people hold back on sales.
Huh? Every year there are rumors about the next iPhone being "the best ever" and Cook never used that excuse before. The clear reality has been Oppo, Vivo, Huawei and now others simply beating Apple in delivering specs at price points that Chinese consumers want. It's certainly not about tourism being down. It's certainly not about rumors..."
Comments
One excerpt:
"The excuses about the iPhone's performance in China were painful to hear. Cook blamed it in part on a currency issue. Then it was how Hong Kong was down because tourism was down and then latter, blamed it on iPhone rumors for making people hold back on sales.
Huh? Every year there are rumors about the next iPhone being "the best ever" and Cook never used that excuse before. The clear reality has been Oppo, Vivo, Huawei and now others simply beating Apple in delivering specs at price points that Chinese consumers want. It's certainly not about tourism being down. It's certainly not about rumors..."
http://www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2017/05/apples-ceo-seems-to-be-in-denial-about-their-chinese-smartphone-competitors-outsmarting-them.html