Kuo: 'Apple Car' likely to launch in 2023 to 2025, fuel $2 trillion company valuation

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 73
    roakeroake Posts: 818member
    Nope
  • Reply 42 of 73
    entropys said:
    timmillea said:
    Apple could not make a bigger mistake. It is because Apple is a U.S. company and the U.S. is car crazy that they have such a blind spot. Apple should be focussing on ways to reduce the need to travel and on the efficiency of the residual need. Car travel is not it. Within 20 years private vehicles will be all-electric but only as a stepping stone to no private vehicles. Apple should be exploiting VR and AR to make travelling redundant and on AI to optimise public transport. 
    Nah. I can’t imagine shared public vehicles ever become a thing for people who can afford to buy or lease, but I believe eventually self-driving cars will be so good it will become unthinkable to drive your own car, unless you’re a criminal or terrorist.
    Or want freedom. These autonomous cars will be centrally controlled. If Big Brother wants you to pull over, you will pull over. With the doors locked. By then I will feel like Sylvester Stallon in Demolition Man.
    Freedom to do what you want and independence from machines and systems...The more things get automated, the more we forget how to actually do for ourselves.  If you have spent years using self-driving cars, you probably wouldn't know what to do or be very good at it even if you could override Big Brother's control.  Think about all the cashiers who can't add or subtract or struggle without a cash register or calculator.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 43 of 73
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member
    Good lord he’s worse than Gene Munster.
    Yep, predicting good things about Apple just doesn’t sit well with some, right?
  • Reply 44 of 73
    netmagenetmage Posts: 314member
    Nah. I can’t imagine shared public vehicles ever become a thing for people who can afford to buy or lease, but I believe eventually self-driving cars will be so good it will become unthinkable to drive your own car, unless you’re a criminal or terrorist.
    Just like only criminals or terrorists ride horses?
    tallest skilireland
  • Reply 45 of 73
    netmagenetmage Posts: 314member
    Also, what specific technology does Tesla have that is significantly different from competitors? It's definitely not the electric tech or batteries.
    Actually it is the battery pack, which is significantly better designed and built then the competition. Then there is the tech focused design, which has its issues but also is the first vehicle with OTA updates for all systems, allowing such things as fixing the ABS code to improve braking, or extending the range temporarily for short range owners in the path of a hurricane, as well as improving the Model 3's controls. Finally they have the supercharger network, the only large scale high speed car charging network in the US.
  • Reply 46 of 73
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,351member
    maestro64 said:
    This guy is usually good at what's coming in 6 months since we had some friends working at Apple suppliers. Beyond this he is just guessing, he has no eyes and ears inside Apple so no ideas what the future holds. To think a car can drive  another 1T valuations is nuts all the car companies today do not add up to that.

    This guy is better off trying to figure out what this falls iPhone will be.
    This is future. Self-driving cars can save world economy more than 1T. Every cost related to car will be reduced dramatically. Much less accident, reduced insurance payments, keeping less cars, driving less, etc, etc. 
  • Reply 47 of 73
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,351member
    This Kuo prediction will help AAPL to stat above 1T for the next seven years. 
  • Reply 48 of 73
    netmage said: Actually it is the battery pack, which is significantly better designed and built then the competition. 
    Tesla has made some claims about having the highest energy density and lowest cost per kilowatt-hour, but it doesn't sound like those have been verified by anyone. Tesla's batteries also have the same rate of degradation as those from other manufacturers. According to this article, the only real "innovation" in batteries near term is going to be lowering manufacturing costs. Considering how much difficulty Tesla has had with mass production (which includes the Gigafactory), that sounds like a steeper hill vs. competitors than some people might think. 

    https://qz.com/1325206/tesla-owners-battery-data-show-it-wont-win-through-chemistry-only-a-better-factory/
  • Reply 49 of 73
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    1983 said:
    Oh no, not that picture again...
    The dreaded egg returns! :)
    I’ll make you love the egg. These are real concepts:






    tzeshan said:
    This is future. Self-driving cars can save world economy more than 1T.
    Oh, nonsense. If anything it’ll increase debt by more than 1 trillion.
    …keeping less cars…
    On that note, Europeans have basically given up all their conception of freedom, haven’t they?
  • Reply 50 of 73
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,675member

    Also, what specific technology does Tesla have that is significantly different from competitors? It's definitely not the electric tech or batteries.
    It definitely is.   The cells, the battery architecture, the inverters, and the motors are probably the best in the EV industry.  

    What Tesla doesn’t have is quality for the car parts of the car, the stuff that is the same for every car.   
  • Reply 51 of 73
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,398member
    netmage said: Actually it is the battery pack, which is significantly better designed and built then the competition. 
    Tesla has made some claims about having the highest energy density and lowest cost per kilowatt-hour, but it doesn't sound like those have been verified by anyone. Tesla's batteries also have the same rate of degradation as those from other manufacturers. According to this article, the only real "innovation" in batteries near term is going to be lowering manufacturing costs. Considering how much difficulty Tesla has had with mass production (which includes the Gigafactory), that sounds like a steeper hill vs. competitors than some people might think. 

    https://qz.com/1325206/tesla-owners-battery-data-show-it-wont-win-through-chemistry-only-a-better-factory/
    Prismatic configurations over stacks of cylindrical batteries (that Tesla has) are the next thing, followed by Solid State Batteries, which Toyota and others are pursuing.
    edited August 2018
  • Reply 52 of 73
    maestro64 said:
    Beyond this he is just guessing, he has no eyes and ears inside Apple so no ideas what the future holds.

    To think a car can drive  another 1T valuations is nuts all the car companies today do not add up to that.
    Exactly.  Kuo "guesses" the obvious and is labeled "respected", "knowledgeable", "reliable", "well connected" by media outlets desperate for content.

    AAPL has been increasing ~25% per annum (on average) for the last 7 years.  If we reduce that growth rate to 20% per annum, AAPL will hit $2 Trillian valuation in 5 years WITHOUT AN APPLE CAR.
  • Reply 53 of 73
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    AAPL has been increasing ~25% per annum (on average) for the last 7 years.  If we reduce that growth rate to 20% per annum, AAPL will hit $2 Trillian valuation in 5 years WITHOUT AN APPLE CAR.
    This message brought to you by Keynesianism. 

    Keynesianism: Infinite Growth!™
  • Reply 54 of 73
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,351member
    maestro64 said:
    Beyond this he is just guessing, he has no eyes and ears inside Apple so no ideas what the future holds.

    To think a car can drive  another 1T valuations is nuts all the car companies today do not add up to that.
    Exactly.  Kuo "guesses" the obvious and is labeled "respected", "knowledgeable", "reliable", "well connected" by media outlets desperate for content.

    AAPL has been increasing ~25% per annum (on average) for the last 7 years.  If we reduce that growth rate to 20% per annum, AAPL will hit $2 Trillian valuation in 5 years WITHOUT AN APPLE CAR.
    Yes, if AAPL keep growing if will be bigger than US GDP. 
  • Reply 55 of 73
    farmboyfarmboy Posts: 152member
    Apple isn't going to manufacture an entire car unless they have major technologies to leverage versus competitors in the same space. Just look at Tesla: currently, the only thing they have going for them is the perception of a higher quality build and nicer designs. The actual technology inside the car is no different than anyone else. That's not the type of product that Apple would be interested in producing. 
    Of course, one of the reasons the technology is no different than anyone else is...Tesla made all their patents available to everyone. That said, the tech is very similar, but not exactly the same among the current manufacturers / explorers. That's because the basic setup is going to be the same, just like IC vehicles of the last 100 years. 
  • Reply 56 of 73
    It took over 200 years of having a stock exchange for a US company to reach a trillion dollar valuation.  But Kuo thinks that same company will double in value in 5-7 years?  Well, I hope he’s right...

    Oh no, not that picture again...
    Seriously.  Is there anyone out there that thinks an Apple Designed car would look like that?

    With regard to AR glasses, I’m still having a little trouble understanding how the everyday consumer would find them useful.  I was on vacation in an unfamiliar city and loved being able to have walking directions fed to me by my Apple Watch. I was discreet and didn’t scream “TOURIST” like checking my iPhone would have.  Having similar functionality in glasses would be even better.  But, for me, that doesn’t happen particularly often.  I get it that AR glasses could potentially be very useful in different working environments, and maybe that’s what they’ll be mostly aimed at (if they come to fruition) but, again, on the consumer side I’m a little lost.

    However, I also didn’t understand the use case for a tablet either.  But now our house has 5 iPads.  So, maybe once I see it it will all make sense.
    I think the future of AR is grossly underestimated. You won't look like a tourist because literally everyone will be using AR glasses. There will be no physical road signs. None. But when you look at the side of the road with your AR glasses you will see AR signs in your native language regardless of which country you are in. During construction, they won't have to put up actual construction signs, they'll be AR signs with lower speed limits. When you're in the waiting area at a hospital while your wife is getting surgery, you'll be looking at a wall that displays an AR monitor showing you the progress of her surgery. The stranger next to you will be looking at the same wall but only see their wife's status. The doctor looking at the wall will be looking at upcoming surgeries. The nurse will see which patients have medications required. Same wall. Different information for different people. The hospital doesn't need to spend tens of thousands of dollars placing PCs and 55" displays all over the hospital. Your kids will be watching their favorite cartoons on the same wall. When you're car is driving down the interstate and you see a sign about food at the next exit, you can look at the word "Subway" for two seconds and their menu with prices will pop up. You can place your order and it will be ready when you pull up to the drive through. Your account will be already debited. Then some a-hole will figure out how to hack it; removing the virtual stop sign at a four way intersection. But your car will save your life because it is in real time communication with the car coming from your left.
  • Reply 57 of 73
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,776member
    _honez said:
    fallenjt said:
    Why would Apple want to make cars? It has lower margin compared phones. Besides, there’s already a king of EV (Tesla) out there.
    Could that be why Musk wants to go private again, and then merge?
    That wouldn't solve the un-Apple like margins though.  I still suspect Apple are planning to offer a software system to car manufacturers much as they have with Car Play.  Car Drive maybe ;). Car Play started off almost laughed at as all the car manufacturers were building their one but they all suck!  Just look at the uptick in Car Play in new cars now.
  • Reply 58 of 73
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,398member
    farmboy said:
    Apple isn't going to manufacture an entire car unless they have major technologies to leverage versus competitors in the same space. Just look at Tesla: currently, the only thing they have going for them is the perception of a higher quality build and nicer designs. The actual technology inside the car is no different than anyone else. That's not the type of product that Apple would be interested in producing. 
    Of course, one of the reasons the technology is no different than anyone else is...Tesla made all their patents available to everyone. That said, the tech is very similar, but not exactly the same among the current manufacturers / explorers. That's because the basic setup is going to be the same, just like IC vehicles of the last 100 years. 
    Tesla's "gift" is grossly overrated.

    Still most of the major manufacturers appreciate Musk jump starting the EV business; makes it much more likely that these competitors will be making profits earlier than later. Odds are, though, that Tesla won't be around, in its current form anyway, when that happens. Poor quality, poor financials, no class leading autonomy, and frankly, a CEO what needs to be replaced. Or course, if that happens, the Cult of Tesla can't exist.

    More succinctly, the tax credits will be halved in January, service and sales is abysmal by all accounts, the $35K model 3 will never exist, and all Tesla's models have significant additional competition beginning this fall. 


    edited August 2018 entropys
  • Reply 59 of 73
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,398member

    eriamjh said:

    Also, what specific technology does Tesla have that is significantly different from competitors? It's definitely not the electric tech or batteries.
    It definitely is.   The cells, the battery architecture, the inverters, and the motors are probably the best in the EV industry.  

    What Tesla doesn’t have is quality for the car parts of the car, the stuff that is the same for every car.   
    I keep hearing all of these "best in the industry statements" but very little objective data to indicate that.

    Worse for Tesla, most of the demand for the Model 3 revolves around a $35k base priced model that won't ever exist because Tesla can't make any money building it. The 2019 Nissan Leaf will fill that niche nicely.

    ...and there's this...

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/08/15/tesla-elon-musk-fire-sec-issues-subpoenas/

    ...and this...

    https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-silences-team-concerned-about-quality-issues-according-to-former-engineer-2018-7

    People that are Tesla fans or Tesla stock bulls are going to be very, very, unhappy.
    edited August 2018
  • Reply 60 of 73
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 12,929member
    In a note to investors seen by 
    AppleInsider,
    There's that whacky passive-voice again. Was the note "purchased by" AppleInsider, or was the note "given to" AppleInsider? Using the active voice is always preferred. And it adds more value to the sentence/story by letting readers know how this information is delivered, as that does affect the context.
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