So, I don't think there's quite as much interest in the iPhone this time around as it was in 2017...
The thing is that these days you're encouraged to reserve a specific pickup time to get your new phone and/or watch.
As such, you arrive at your 9-to-9:30 appointment time to get your phone. Doesn't do much good to arrive early and it makes sales judgements by checking the length of the line pretty much irrelevant. It's not like the old days where you stood in lines a couple of hundred of people long to try to get the model you wanted...
It was the same thing in 2017. People could reserve time slots for the pickup of pre-ordered phones. Yet, many people do not pre-order because they don't want to be up in the middle of the night. So, they just show up at the door, and many of them get the phones even though those who pre-ordered them may be getting them days later.
First, I wouldn't put much weight in this type of analysis.
However, isn't their conclusion exactly backwards using their own logic?
However, while the iPhone 11's lead time is relatively lower than the iPhone 11 Pro range, it reported six days for the first week and 12 days in the second week. The doubling of the lead time "implies to us increased interest in the 'lower end' model that initially anticipated by Apple and the supply chain," writes JP Morgan.
Think that through. There is a longer lead time for the Pro and Pro Max than the non-Pro model. In other words, demand is outstripping supply more for the high end models than the "low end" non-Pro model. Doesn't that imply that there is increased interest in the "higher end" models?
Yet AI says:
The increase in lead times for the iPhone 11 suggests demand for the new iPhone models is higher than the supply chain anticipated, according to JP Morgan, with the lead time growth for the value-based model seemingly indicating consumers are not focusing their purchases on the higher-end models as was previously predicted.
Apple got burned last year on the overproduction of the iPhone Xs and Xs Max. They most likely cut the production this time. In the past, lead times were 4-6 weeks, so the lead time of a couple weeks is much shorter than the lead times of the yesteryear. You can't extrapolate demand from the lead time. Most likely, Apple has manufactured iPhone 11 in much larger quantities than iPhone 11 Pro. Apple doesn't consider a two-week lead time to be too dramatic for them to take a risk and overproduce iPhone 11 Pro again.
They most likely did NOT cut production this year, since last year iPhones were still back-ordered. There’s a difference between cutting production capacity from the get-go and turning down production capacity as demand slacks.
So the reason for the increased demand lies elsewhere, not reduced production capacity. Nice try, no cigar.....
First, I wouldn't put much weight in this type of analysis.
However, isn't their conclusion exactly backwards using their own logic?
However, while the iPhone 11's lead time is relatively lower than the iPhone 11 Pro range, it reported six days for the first week and 12 days in the second week. The doubling of the lead time "implies to us increased interest in the 'lower end' model that initially anticipated by Apple and the supply chain," writes JP Morgan.
Think that through. There is a longer lead time for the Pro and Pro Max than the non-Pro model. In other words, demand is outstripping supply more for the high end models than the "low end" non-Pro model. Doesn't that imply that there is increased interest in the "higher end" models?
Yet AI says:
The increase in lead times for the iPhone 11 suggests demand for the new iPhone models is higher than the supply chain anticipated, according to JP Morgan, with the lead time growth for the value-based model seemingly indicating consumers are not focusing their purchases on the higher-end models as was previously predicted.
Apple got burned last year on the overproduction of the iPhone Xs and Xs Max. They most likely cut the production this time. In the past, lead times were 4-6 weeks, so the lead time of a couple weeks is much shorter than the lead times of the yesteryear. You can't extrapolate demand from the lead time. Most likely, Apple has manufactured iPhone 11 in much larger quantities than iPhone 11 Pro. Apple doesn't consider a two-week lead time to be too dramatic for them to take a risk and overproduce iPhone 11 Pro again.
I agree with you, and said that in my first sentence.
My point was that, if were you were going to infer anything from this (which you likely shouldn't), it's not that the cheaper phones are surprisingly more popular.
Once again Apple confounds the pundits and trolls. Will they ever learn? Not likely. After all, negativity is the norm on the Internet.
So three years of flat sales and a profitwarning leave nothing for Apple or you to learn?
Apple hasn't confounded anyone. For the last three years it has been the same, right down to the kind of statement you just made. And as usual you are running with an analyst statement! The same analysts you always criticise!
Have you forgotten about 'the iPhone X is the most popular iPhone'? That, in the end, didn't change anything. Things still came out flat.
If anything, the opposite to what you are saying is true. Apple has learnt (the hard way) and as a result we have a much stronger lineup at far cheaper prices - right down to the iPhone 8.
Thank the competition for that, too.
"Flat sales", highest user base in history.
"Profit warning", one of the most profitable quarters in history.
Funny how you criticize Apple for releasing "the same" yet the knockoffs that ripped off Apple design and UI are constantly praised by you.
"Thank the competition for that, too."
Somehow you managed to stick the knockoff Huawei iPhones in this article.....
The doubling of the lead time "implies to us increased interest in the 'lower end' model that initially anticipated by Apple (...)
Isn't that bad for stock holders, more people buying the cheaper version? Ah, AAPL dropped ,50 No biggie, but it also didn't go through the roof either.
ALL Apple news is bad news.
When the 5s was outselling the 5c, articles read "iPhone 5c is a failure" even though it outsold all knockoffs and the only phones outselling the 5c were made by....wait for it... APPLE.
If iPhone 11 outsells iPhone 11 Pro, after years of these donkeys claiming "Apple is too expensiveee.." they'll type up new articles claiming "people no longer willing to pay a premium for Apple products."
Once again Apple confounds the pundits and trolls. Will they ever learn? Not likely. After all, negativity is the norm on the Internet.
So three years of flat sales and a profitwarning leave nothing for Apple or you to learn?
Apple hasn't confounded anyone. For the last three years it has been the same, right down to the kind of statement you just made. And as usual you are running with an analyst statement! The same analysts you always criticise!
Have you forgotten about 'the iPhone X is the most popular iPhone'? That, in the end, didn't change anything. Things still came out flat.
If anything, the opposite to what you are saying is true. Apple has learnt (the hard way) and as a result we have a much stronger lineup at far cheaper prices - right down to the iPhone 8.
Thank the competition for that, too.
"Flat sales", highest user base in history.
"Profit warning", one of the most profitable quarters in history.
Funny how you criticize Apple for releasing "the same" yet the knockoffs that ripped off Apple design and UI are constantly praised by you.
"Thank the competition for that, too."
Somehow you managed to stick the knockoff Huawei iPhones in this article.....
Flat sales are just that, flat sales.
Profit warning was just that, a profit warning.
No amount of spin (user base etc) will change the facts.
Competition is one of the major reasons Apple spent most of its presentation catching up to rivals (although I hear the iPhone 11 still comes with a 5W charger). The other major reason was strategic errors. That is why Apple couldn't deliver a 5G modem and had to reimburse Samsung millions for not selling enough oled iPhones and had to extend the 'limited time' trade in offers to a full year.
Because of that, Apple has reduced pricing almost across the entire line and finally (almost two years late) added a third camera and a Night Mode. They have added some other features that were also long overdue.
Of course the competition isn't standing still (as you will know if you were watching handset news yesterday.) And I am not limiting that last comment to just handsets.
On pricing, Apple has it most competitive lineup in years. If this time next year (not a couple of quarters), sales increase YoY, the number one reason will be the price adjustments.
Once again Apple confounds the pundits and trolls. Will they ever learn? Not likely. After all, negativity is the norm on the Internet.
So three years of flat sales and a profitwarning leave nothing for Apple or you to learn?
Apple hasn't confounded anyone. For the last three years it has been the same, right down to the kind of statement you just made. And as usual you are running with an analyst statement! The same analysts you always criticise!
Have you forgotten about 'the iPhone X is the most popular iPhone'? That, in the end, didn't change anything. Things still came out flat.
If anything, the opposite to what you are saying is true. Apple has learnt (the hard way) and as a result we have a much stronger lineup at far cheaper prices - right down to the iPhone 8.
Thank the competition for that, too.
"Flat sales", highest user base in history.
"Profit warning", one of the most profitable quarters in history.
Funny how you criticize Apple for releasing "the same" yet the knockoffs that ripped off Apple design and UI are constantly praised by you.
"Thank the competition for that, too."
Somehow you managed to stick the knockoff Huawei iPhones in this article.....
Flat sales are just that, flat sales.
Profit warning was just that, a profit warning.
No amount of spin (user base etc) will change the facts.
Competition is one of the major reasons Apple spent most of its presentation catching up to rivals (although I hear the iPhone 11 still comes with a 5W charger). The other major reason was strategic errors. That is why Apple couldn't deliver a 5G modem and had to reimburse Samsung millions for not selling enough oled iPhones and had to extend the 'limited time' trade in offers to a full year.
Because of that, Apple has reduced pricing almost across the entire line and finally (almost two years late) added a third camera and a Night Mode. They have added some other features that were also long overdue.
Of course the competition isn't standing still (as you will know if you were watching handset news yesterday.) And I am not limiting that last comment to just handsets.
On pricing, Apple has it most competitive lineup in years. If this time next year (not a couple of quarters), sales increase YoY, the number one reason will be the price adjustments.
Avon B7 rants are all really just, "why can't Apple be like all of the Android OS device makers, and especially, like Huawei".
Short answer; Apple is really good at making money, and creating and keeping happy customers.
That Avon B7 has never understood Apple is obvious. That Apple is the leader in revenue, ASP, and Profit, off of a product line of a mere 6 smartphone models, all with a growing base, is quite remarkable.
The doubling of the lead time "implies to us increased interest in the 'lower end' model that initially anticipated by Apple (...)
Isn't that bad for stock holders, more people buying the cheaper version? Ah, AAPL dropped ,50 No biggie, but it also didn't go through the roof either.
ALL Apple news is bad news.
When the 5s was outselling the 5c, articles read "iPhone 5c is a failure" even though it outsold all knockoffs and the only phones outselling the 5c were made by....wait for it... APPLE.
If iPhone 11 outsells iPhone 11 Pro, after years of these donkeys claiming "Apple is too expensiveee.." they'll type up new articles claiming "people no longer willing to pay a premium for Apple products."
Good point! Yeah, I forgot about the 5/5s/5c. Was indeed the same, stupid view on the rise and fall of sales numbers. Oh well, one thing's for sure: I don't think Apple has any 'income worries'; their products sell. They make tons of money.
Once again Apple confounds the pundits and trolls. Will they ever learn? Not likely. After all, negativity is the norm on the Internet.
So three years of flat sales and a profitwarning leave nothing for Apple or you to learn?
Apple hasn't confounded anyone. For the last three years it has been the same, right down to the kind of statement you just made. And as usual you are running with an analyst statement! The same analysts you always criticise!
Have you forgotten about 'the iPhone X is the most popular iPhone'? That, in the end, didn't change anything. Things still came out flat.
If anything, the opposite to what you are saying is true. Apple has learnt (the hard way) and as a result we have a much stronger lineup at far cheaper prices - right down to the iPhone 8.
Thank the competition for that, too.
"Flat sales", highest user base in history.
"Profit warning", one of the most profitable quarters in history.
Funny how you criticize Apple for releasing "the same" yet the knockoffs that ripped off Apple design and UI are constantly praised by you.
"Thank the competition for that, too."
Somehow you managed to stick the knockoff Huawei iPhones in this article.....
Flat sales are just that, flat sales.
Profit warning was just that, a profit warning.
No amount of spin (user base etc) will change the facts.
Competition is one of the major reasons Apple spent most of its presentation catching up to rivals (although I hear the iPhone 11 still comes with a 5W charger). The other major reason was strategic errors. That is why Apple couldn't deliver a 5G modem and had to reimburse Samsung millions for not selling enough oled iPhones and had to extend the 'limited time' trade in offers to a full year.
Because of that, Apple has reduced pricing almost across the entire line and finally (almost two years late) added a third camera and a Night Mode. They have added some other features that were also long overdue.
Of course the competition isn't standing still (as you will know if you were watching handset news yesterday.) And I am not limiting that last comment to just handsets.
On pricing, Apple has it most competitive lineup in years. If this time next year (not a couple of quarters), sales increase YoY, the number one reason will be the price adjustments.
Avon B7 rants are all really just, "why can't Apple be like all of the Android OS device makers, and especially, like Huawei".
Short answer; Apple is really good at making money, and creating and keeping happy customers.
That Avon B7 has never understood Apple is obvious. That Apple is the leader in revenue, ASP, and Profit, off of a product line of a mere 6 smartphone models, all with a growing base, is quite remarkable.
What was all that about? Ignoring the facts?
Have you ever thought that offering six phones is actually part of the problem?
Choice is severely limited.
From the iPhone business, Apple is making less money, less profit etc. So much so that there was a profit warning. So much so that for the first time in many years, iPhone revenue fell to less than 50% of the company's total revenue. So much so that more and more of Apple's business is being weaned off being tethered to the iPhone. Ignore that if you wish but Apple knows it can't.
If they wanted to keep revenues, profits and ASP high the clearly wouldn't have adjusted pricing down virtually across the board!
You yourself went on record as putting off an iPhone purchase last year to wait for tri-cameras. Believe me, the lack of choice is a problem.
However, why not change that? Wait! They did (to a degree) but very late in the day. So late that sales were impacted, along with revenues and profits.
When competitors overtake you in key areas and by such a large margin you lose appeal. People, like you, say 'hey, I want that feature on an iPhone but they don't offer it'. They then wait or give up and switch. If, on top of that, prices are too high the problem gets worse.
But we have been here before and in exactly the same conditions. Large screens. Do you remember that Apple marketing slide?
Much of what some of the most vocal people here have been saying has just turned out to be massively wrong.
If, and it is still a big if, at this time next year we are talking about YoY gains for iPhone, one of the major factors will be pricing and how it has adjusted downwards right down to the $450 iPhone 8. You know, that part of the market where, just a few short years ago, many were saying wasn't important for Apple.
But if you want to keep ignoring the facts, feel free.
Apple playing catch-up is now the norm in key areas. I'm sure you saw Thursday's announcements so you know that next year Apple will have to make another jump. Luckily, that seems to be planned anyway so perhaps there is a silver lining in there somewhere. The problem is that next year isn't January, it's September and is a very long way off.
IMO, one of the key takeaways right now is that the lineup is solid (and especially from iPhone 11 down) actually competitive.
Stupid things remain like the woefully laughable 5W charger in the box on many models but put this year's lineup against last year's lineup and factor in how they stood with regards the competition and it is night and day. There is no guarantee it will pay off wildly but it is something that had to be done and yes, right down to the new textured and frosted finishes. I applaud the move but am aware of reality on the other side of the garden wall.
Once again Apple confounds the pundits and trolls. Will they ever learn? Not likely. After all, negativity is the norm on the Internet.
So three years of flat sales and a profitwarning leave nothing for Apple or you to learn?
Apple hasn't confounded anyone. For the last three years it has been the same, right down to the kind of statement you just made. And as usual you are running with an analyst statement! The same analysts you always criticise!
Have you forgotten about 'the iPhone X is the most popular iPhone'? That, in the end, didn't change anything. Things still came out flat.
If anything, the opposite to what you are saying is true. Apple has learnt (the hard way) and as a result we have a much stronger lineup at far cheaper prices - right down to the iPhone 8.
Thank the competition for that, too.
"Flat sales", highest user base in history.
"Profit warning", one of the most profitable quarters in history.
Funny how you criticize Apple for releasing "the same" yet the knockoffs that ripped off Apple design and UI are constantly praised by you.
"Thank the competition for that, too."
Somehow you managed to stick the knockoff Huawei iPhones in this article.....
Flat sales are just that, flat sales.
Profit warning was just that, a profit warning.
No amount of spin (user base etc) will change the facts.
Competition is one of the major reasons Apple spent most of its presentation catching up to rivals (although I hear the iPhone 11 still comes with a 5W charger). The other major reason was strategic errors. That is why Apple couldn't deliver a 5G modem and had to reimburse Samsung millions for not selling enough oled iPhones and had to extend the 'limited time' trade in offers to a full year.
Because of that, Apple has reduced pricing almost across the entire line and finally (almost two years late) added a third camera and a Night Mode. They have added some other features that were also long overdue.
Of course the competition isn't standing still (as you will know if you were watching handset news yesterday.) And I am not limiting that last comment to just handsets.
On pricing, Apple has it most competitive lineup in years. If this time next year (not a couple of quarters), sales increase YoY, the number one reason will be the price adjustments.
Avon B7 rants are all really just, "why can't Apple be like all of the Android OS device makers, and especially, like Huawei".
Short answer; Apple is really good at making money, and creating and keeping happy customers.
That Avon B7 has never understood Apple is obvious. That Apple is the leader in revenue, ASP, and Profit, off of a product line of a mere 6 smartphone models, all with a growing base, is quite remarkable.
What was all that about? Ignoring the facts?
Have you ever thought that offering six phones is actually part of the problem?
Choice is severely limited.
From the iPhone business, Apple is making less money, less profit etc. So much so that there was a profit warning. So much so that for the first time in many years, iPhone revenue fell to less than 50% of the company's total revenue. So much so that more and more of Apple's business is being weaned off being tethered to the iPhone. Ignore that if you wish but Apple knows it can't.
If they wanted to keep revenues, profits and ASP high the clearly wouldn't have adjusted pricing down virtually across the board!
You yourself went on record as putting off an iPhone purchase last year to wait for tri-cameras. Believe me, the lack of choice is a problem.
However, why not change that? Wait! They did (to a degree) but very late in the day. So late that sales were impacted, along with revenues and profits.
When competitors overtake you in key areas and by such a large margin you lose appeal. People, like you, say 'hey, I want that feature on an iPhone but they don't offer it'. They then wait or give up and switch. If, on top of that, prices are too high the problem gets worse.
But we have been here before and in exactly the same conditions. Large screens. Do you remember that Apple marketing slide?
Much of what some of the most vocal people here have been saying has just turned out to be massively wrong.
If, and it is still a big if, at this time next year we are talking about YoY gains for iPhone, one of the major factors will be pricing and how it has adjusted downwards right down to the $450 iPhone 8. You know, that part of the market where, just a few short years ago, many were saying wasn't important for Apple.
But if you want to keep ignoring the facts, feel free.
Apple playing catch-up is now the norm in key areas. I'm sure you saw Thursday's announcements so you know that next year Apple will have to make another jump. Luckily, that seems to be planned anyway so perhaps there is a silver lining in there somewhere. The problem is that next year isn't January, it's September and is a very long way off.
IMO, one of the key takeaways right now is that the lineup is solid (and especially from iPhone 11 down) actually competitive.
Stupid things remain like the woefully laughable 5W charger in the box on many models but put this year's lineup against last year's lineup and factor in how they stood with regards the competition and it is night and day. There is no guarantee it will pay off wildly but it is something that had to be done and yes, right down to the new textured and frosted finishes. I applaud the move but am aware of reality on the other side of the garden wall.
I'm going to enjoy Apple's earnings report in January of 2020, but I'm guessing that you won't.
Once again Apple confounds the pundits and trolls. Will they ever learn? Not likely. After all, negativity is the norm on the Internet.
So three years of flat sales and a profitwarning leave nothing for Apple or you to learn?
Apple hasn't confounded anyone. For the last three years it has been the same, right down to the kind of statement you just made. And as usual you are running with an analyst statement! The same analysts you always criticise!
Have you forgotten about 'the iPhone X is the most popular iPhone'? That, in the end, didn't change anything. Things still came out flat.
If anything, the opposite to what you are saying is true. Apple has learnt (the hard way) and as a result we have a much stronger lineup at far cheaper prices - right down to the iPhone 8.
Thank the competition for that, too.
"Flat sales", highest user base in history.
"Profit warning", one of the most profitable quarters in history.
Funny how you criticize Apple for releasing "the same" yet the knockoffs that ripped off Apple design and UI are constantly praised by you.
"Thank the competition for that, too."
Somehow you managed to stick the knockoff Huawei iPhones in this article.....
Flat sales are just that, flat sales.
Profit warning was just that, a profit warning.
No amount of spin (user base etc) will change the facts.
Competition is one of the major reasons Apple spent most of its presentation catching up to rivals (although I hear the iPhone 11 still comes with a 5W charger). The other major reason was strategic errors. That is why Apple couldn't deliver a 5G modem and had to reimburse Samsung millions for not selling enough oled iPhones and had to extend the 'limited time' trade in offers to a full year.
Because of that, Apple has reduced pricing almost across the entire line and finally (almost two years late) added a third camera and a Night Mode. They have added some other features that were also long overdue.
Of course the competition isn't standing still (as you will know if you were watching handset news yesterday.) And I am not limiting that last comment to just handsets.
On pricing, Apple has it most competitive lineup in years. If this time next year (not a couple of quarters), sales increase YoY, the number one reason will be the price adjustments.
Avon B7 rants are all really just, "why can't Apple be like all of the Android OS device makers, and especially, like Huawei".
Short answer; Apple is really good at making money, and creating and keeping happy customers.
That Avon B7 has never understood Apple is obvious. That Apple is the leader in revenue, ASP, and Profit, off of a product line of a mere 6 smartphone models, all with a growing base, is quite remarkable.
What was all that about? Ignoring the facts?
Have you ever thought that offering six phones is actually part of the problem?
Choice is severely limited.
From the iPhone business, Apple is making less money, less profit etc. So much so that there was a profit warning. So much so that for the first time in many years, iPhone revenue fell to less than 50% of the company's total revenue. So much so that more and more of Apple's business is being weaned off being tethered to the iPhone. Ignore that if you wish but Apple knows it can't.
If they wanted to keep revenues, profits and ASP high the clearly wouldn't have adjusted pricing down virtually across the board!
You yourself went on record as putting off an iPhone purchase last year to wait for tri-cameras. Believe me, the lack of choice is a problem.
However, why not change that? Wait! They did (to a degree) but very late in the day. So late that sales were impacted, along with revenues and profits.
When competitors overtake you in key areas and by such a large margin you lose appeal. People, like you, say 'hey, I want that feature on an iPhone but they don't offer it'. They then wait or give up and switch. If, on top of that, prices are too high the problem gets worse.
But we have been here before and in exactly the same conditions. Large screens. Do you remember that Apple marketing slide?
Much of what some of the most vocal people here have been saying has just turned out to be massively wrong.
If, and it is still a big if, at this time next year we are talking about YoY gains for iPhone, one of the major factors will be pricing and how it has adjusted downwards right down to the $450 iPhone 8. You know, that part of the market where, just a few short years ago, many were saying wasn't important for Apple.
But if you want to keep ignoring the facts, feel free.
Apple playing catch-up is now the norm in key areas. I'm sure you saw Thursday's announcements so you know that next year Apple will have to make another jump. Luckily, that seems to be planned anyway so perhaps there is a silver lining in there somewhere. The problem is that next year isn't January, it's September and is a very long way off.
IMO, one of the key takeaways right now is that the lineup is solid (and especially from iPhone 11 down) actually competitive.
Stupid things remain like the woefully laughable 5W charger in the box on many models but put this year's lineup against last year's lineup and factor in how they stood with regards the competition and it is night and day. There is no guarantee it will pay off wildly but it is something that had to be done and yes, right down to the new textured and frosted finishes. I applaud the move but am aware of reality on the other side of the garden wall.
I'm going to enjoy Apple's earnings report in January of 2020, but I'm guessing that you won't.
Big difference here. I don't really make absolute claims for the future like you. Not even Apple does. It gives guidance. Nothing more.
You are already saying that you are going to enjoy the Jan 2020 earnings call. That's a possibility. After all, Apple's entire cycle is built around the Christmas quarter and this year there are some very important price adjustments on show.
I give opinions on how I see things could play out based on how Apple is moving. I have been almost 100% right for the last three years (in fact before that too). I've criticised the company but also applauded some key strategic moves too. I've explained things clearly - as I see them - but my way isn't the only way to see things. Two different opinions can sometimes converge and be both right.
If you want a taste of hindsight try going back over your previous claims and seeing how they actually played out (and ironically, some of the January earnings reports claims, too).
Once again Apple confounds the pundits and trolls. Will they ever learn? Not likely. After all, negativity is the norm on the Internet.
So three years of flat sales and a profitwarning leave nothing for Apple or you to learn?
Apple hasn't confounded anyone. For the last three years it has been the same, right down to the kind of statement you just made. And as usual you are running with an analyst statement! The same analysts you always criticise!
Have you forgotten about 'the iPhone X is the most popular iPhone'? That, in the end, didn't change anything. Things still came out flat.
If anything, the opposite to what you are saying is true. Apple has learnt (the hard way) and as a result we have a much stronger lineup at far cheaper prices - right down to the iPhone 8.
Thank the competition for that, too.
"Flat sales", highest user base in history.
"Profit warning", one of the most profitable quarters in history.
Funny how you criticize Apple for releasing "the same" yet the knockoffs that ripped off Apple design and UI are constantly praised by you.
"Thank the competition for that, too."
Somehow you managed to stick the knockoff Huawei iPhones in this article.....
Flat sales are just that, flat sales.
Profit warning was just that, a profit warning.
No amount of spin (user base etc) will change the facts.
Competition is one of the major reasons Apple spent most of its presentation catching up to rivals (although I hear the iPhone 11 still comes with a 5W charger). The other major reason was strategic errors. That is why Apple couldn't deliver a 5G modem and had to reimburse Samsung millions for not selling enough oled iPhones and had to extend the 'limited time' trade in offers to a full year.
Because of that, Apple has reduced pricing almost across the entire line and finally (almost two years late) added a third camera and a Night Mode. They have added some other features that were also long overdue.
Of course the competition isn't standing still (as you will know if you were watching handset news yesterday.) And I am not limiting that last comment to just handsets.
On pricing, Apple has it most competitive lineup in years. If this time next year (not a couple of quarters), sales increase YoY, the number one reason will be the price adjustments.
Avon B7 rants are all really just, "why can't Apple be like all of the Android OS device makers, and especially, like Huawei".
Short answer; Apple is really good at making money, and creating and keeping happy customers.
That Avon B7 has never understood Apple is obvious. That Apple is the leader in revenue, ASP, and Profit, off of a product line of a mere 6 smartphone models, all with a growing base, is quite remarkable.
What was all that about? Ignoring the facts?
Have you ever thought that offering six phones is actually part of the problem?
Choice is severely limited.
From the iPhone business, Apple is making less money, less profit etc. So much so that there was a profit warning. So much so that for the first time in many years, iPhone revenue fell to less than 50% of the company's total revenue. So much so that more and more of Apple's business is being weaned off being tethered to the iPhone. Ignore that if you wish but Apple knows it can't.
If they wanted to keep revenues, profits and ASP high the clearly wouldn't have adjusted pricing down virtually across the board!
You yourself went on record as putting off an iPhone purchase last year to wait for tri-cameras. Believe me, the lack of choice is a problem.
However, why not change that? Wait! They did (to a degree) but very late in the day. So late that sales were impacted, along with revenues and profits.
When competitors overtake you in key areas and by such a large margin you lose appeal. People, like you, say 'hey, I want that feature on an iPhone but they don't offer it'. They then wait or give up and switch. If, on top of that, prices are too high the problem gets worse.
But we have been here before and in exactly the same conditions. Large screens. Do you remember that Apple marketing slide?
Much of what some of the most vocal people here have been saying has just turned out to be massively wrong.
If, and it is still a big if, at this time next year we are talking about YoY gains for iPhone, one of the major factors will be pricing and how it has adjusted downwards right down to the $450 iPhone 8. You know, that part of the market where, just a few short years ago, many were saying wasn't important for Apple.
But if you want to keep ignoring the facts, feel free.
Apple playing catch-up is now the norm in key areas. I'm sure you saw Thursday's announcements so you know that next year Apple will have to make another jump. Luckily, that seems to be planned anyway so perhaps there is a silver lining in there somewhere. The problem is that next year isn't January, it's September and is a very long way off.
IMO, one of the key takeaways right now is that the lineup is solid (and especially from iPhone 11 down) actually competitive.
Stupid things remain like the woefully laughable 5W charger in the box on many models but put this year's lineup against last year's lineup and factor in how they stood with regards the competition and it is night and day. There is no guarantee it will pay off wildly but it is something that had to be done and yes, right down to the new textured and frosted finishes. I applaud the move but am aware of reality on the other side of the garden wall.
I'm going to enjoy Apple's earnings report in January of 2020, but I'm guessing that you won't.
Big difference here. I don't really make absolute claims for the future like you. Not even Apple does. It gives guidance. Nothing more.
You are already saying that you are going to enjoy the Jan 2020 earnings call. That's a possibility. After all, Apple's entire cycle is built around the Christmas quarter and this year there are some very important price adjustments on show.
I give opinions on how I see things could play out based on how Apple is moving. I have been almost 100% right for the last three years (in fact before that too). I've criticised the company but also applauded some key strategic moves too. I've explained things clearly - as I see them - but my way isn't the only way to see things. Two different opinions can sometimes converge and be both right.
If you want a taste of hindsight try going back over your previous claims and seeing how they actually played out (and ironically, some of the January earnings reports claims, too).
Like I said, enjoy Apple'e Earnings Report in January.
Once again Apple confounds the pundits and trolls. Will they ever learn? Not likely. After all, negativity is the norm on the Internet.
Negativity for Apple is the norm on the internet. Some people can always find reasons why Apple will fail at some product or service and that's before the product is in consumers' hands or the service has even started. Why is it always easier to assume something will turn out bad for Apple when there's likely a 50/50 chance either way? Besides, Apple has the cash to make things right in the long run, although money can't always make things successful. However, money can always push the odds in Apple's favor. iPhone sales may not be spectacular, but if consumers think the iPhone is decent this year, then there should be solid sales over the yearly iPhone cycle. That's still a good thing, especially in a saturated smartphone market. Apple won't be able to sell many of its relatively expensive iPhones in India and Africa, but there's still the rest of the world willing and able to spend money on high-end smartphones. I'm not going to jump the gun on how iPhone sales will turn out, but I'm going to sit back and watch. Apple no longer reports iPhone sales numbers, so I will be focusing on overall revenue in the next quarterly report. I'm just glad Apple is diversifying its revenue stream with Services.
I live close to a large Apple store located inside to a fancy outdoors shopping / living development. It's basically a multimillionaires' playground where houses start at a couple million dollars and go up, and you can't have a nice lunch for 2 for less than $100. The Apple store is next to the Tesla store, and the streets are filled with fancy boutiques where normal people cannot afford anything. However, the area around is very affluent, so there are always crowds of people shopping in there. Since it's the only Apple store in the 25-mile radius, people of all backgrounds come to the Apple store there.
Back in 2017, I stood in line in front of this Apple store to get an iPhone X for my wife, and there were probably around 80 people or so in line when I got there around 8:00 AM. The Apple store is huge, and there's plenty of room in front of it to camp out for those who are so inclined. Mind you, 2017 was the first year of Apple selling a $1,000+ iPhone. This morning, I was there at 8:00 AM just to see how many people were lined up. There were 20-30 people in line. I wasn't buying anything this time around but simply dropped by the store to get a sense of how many people are rushing to get new iPhones.
So, I don't think there's quite as much interest in the iPhone this time around as it was in 2017, and back then, a lot of people were shocked by the price. I skipped the 2018 release date altogether, so I don't know how today's release compared to the 2018 release at the local Apple store. Seems like iPhone 11 is a decent upgrade from iPhone 6, 6s, 7, and maybe even 8, but Apple's margins on iPhone 11 are much slimmer than they were in the recent past. I don't think many people will be buying iPhone 11 Pro, since next year's iPhones will feature 5g, and most people's phones are good to last another year. My phone is iPhone 7, and I'm completely uninterested in upgrading. In the past, I wanted to upgrade every year, and I did upgrade every two years. This time around, my iPhone 7 is 3 years old, and my wife's iPhone X is 2 years old; neither one of us are interested in the new iPhones.
It's alright if you don't feel the need to upgrade. No one should feel obliged to upgrade a smartphone that's still working perfectly. I think it's good you can get a long life out of an iPhone and not feel that Apple is trying to make your iPhone obsolete before its time. Even as an Apple shareholder, I think consumers should get about three year's worth out of their iPhones. Analysts and investors may hate that idea, but they're just being greedy. Apple should find other ways to make revenue instead of simply relying on repeat iPhone sales. Buying an iPhone every year makes no sense at all to me and its just a waste of natural resources unless those iPhones can be passed on to other users. I have always used my Apple products for a long time. That's why I buy them. I'm not interested in having the latest and greatest. I just want a product I can depend upon to do what I need it to do. All my Apple computers easily last longer than 5 years and that's what I expect from them. To hell with the analysts.
“JP Morgan iPhone Availability Tracker”? Where is this tracker? How does anyone know if it’s accurate? Surely it couldn’t account for orders placed with cellular service providers, or online orders placed with Apple itself? I have to think the accuracy of any such “tracker” outside of Apple itself might be severely flawed.
First, I wouldn't put much weight in this type of analysis.
However, isn't their conclusion exactly backwards using their own logic?
However, while the iPhone 11's lead time is relatively lower than the iPhone 11 Pro range, it reported six days for the first week and 12 days in the second week. The doubling of the lead time "implies to us increased interest in the 'lower end' model that initially anticipated by Apple and the supply chain," writes JP Morgan.
Think that through. There is a longer lead time for the Pro and Pro Max than the non-Pro model. In other words, demand is outstripping supply more for the high end models than the "low end" non-Pro model. Doesn't that imply that there is increased interest in the "higher end" models?
Yet AI says:
The increase in lead times for the iPhone 11 suggests demand for the new iPhone models is higher than the supply chain anticipated, according to JP Morgan, with the lead time growth for the value-based model seemingly indicating consumers are not focusing their purchases on the higher-end models as was previously predicted.
Apple got burned last year on the overproduction of the iPhone Xs and Xs Max. They most likely cut the production this time. In the past, lead times were 4-6 weeks, so the lead time of a couple weeks is much shorter than the lead times of the yesteryear. You can't extrapolate demand from the lead time. Most likely, Apple has manufactured iPhone 11 in much larger quantities than iPhone 11 Pro. Apple doesn't consider a two-week lead time to be too dramatic for them to take a risk and overproduce iPhone 11 Pro again.
They most likely did NOT cut production this year, since last year iPhones were still back-ordered. There’s a difference between cutting production capacity from the get-go and turning down production capacity as demand slacks.
So the reason for the increased demand lies elsewhere, not reduced production capacity. Nice try, no cigar.....
And how do you know either way? Barring evidence, both claims are equally unsupportable.
Comments
My point was that, if were you were going to infer anything from this (which you likely shouldn't), it's not that the cheaper phones are surprisingly more popular.
"Flat sales", highest user base in history.
"Profit warning", one of the most profitable quarters in history.
Funny how you criticize Apple for releasing "the same" yet the knockoffs that ripped off Apple design and UI are constantly praised by you.
"Thank the competition for that, too."
Somehow you managed to stick the knockoff Huawei iPhones in this article.....
ALL Apple news is bad news.
When the 5s was outselling the 5c, articles read "iPhone 5c is a failure" even though it outsold all knockoffs and the only phones outselling the 5c were made by....wait for it... APPLE.
If iPhone 11 outsells iPhone 11 Pro, after years of these donkeys claiming "Apple is too expensiveee.." they'll type up new articles claiming "people no longer willing to pay a premium for Apple products."
Profit warning was just that, a profit warning.
No amount of spin (user base etc) will change the facts.
Competition is one of the major reasons Apple spent most of its presentation catching up to rivals (although I hear the iPhone 11 still comes with a 5W charger). The other major reason was strategic errors. That is why Apple couldn't deliver a 5G modem and had to reimburse Samsung millions for not selling enough oled iPhones and had to extend the 'limited time' trade in offers to a full year.
Because of that, Apple has reduced pricing almost across the entire line and finally (almost two years late) added a third camera and a Night Mode. They have added some other features that were also long overdue.
Of course the competition isn't standing still (as you will know if you were watching handset news yesterday.) And I am not limiting that last comment to just handsets.
On pricing, Apple has it most competitive lineup in years. If this time next year (not a couple of quarters), sales increase YoY, the number one reason will be the price adjustments.
Short answer; Apple is really good at making money, and creating and keeping happy customers.
That Avon B7 has never understood Apple is obvious. That Apple is the leader in revenue, ASP, and Profit, off of a product line of a mere 6 smartphone models, all with a growing base, is quite remarkable.
Have you ever thought that offering six phones is actually part of the problem?
Choice is severely limited.
From the iPhone business, Apple is making less money, less profit etc. So much so that there was a profit warning. So much so that for the first time in many years, iPhone revenue fell to less than 50% of the company's total revenue. So much so that more and more of Apple's business is being weaned off being tethered to the iPhone. Ignore that if you wish but Apple knows it can't.
If they wanted to keep revenues, profits and ASP high the clearly wouldn't have adjusted pricing down virtually across the board!
Forget Android. Think technology! Think competition.
You yourself went on record as putting off an iPhone purchase last year to wait for tri-cameras. Believe me, the lack of choice is a problem.
However, why not change that? Wait! They did (to a degree) but very late in the day. So late that sales were impacted, along with revenues and profits.
When competitors overtake you in key areas and by such a large margin you lose appeal. People, like you, say 'hey, I want that feature on an iPhone but they don't offer it'. They then wait or give up and switch. If, on top of that, prices are too high the problem gets worse.
But we have been here before and in exactly the same conditions. Large screens. Do you remember that Apple marketing slide?
Much of what some of the most vocal people here have been saying has just turned out to be massively wrong.
If, and it is still a big if, at this time next year we are talking about YoY gains for iPhone, one of the major factors will be pricing and how it has adjusted downwards right down to the $450 iPhone 8. You know, that part of the market where, just a few short years ago, many were saying wasn't important for Apple.
But if you want to keep ignoring the facts, feel free.
Apple playing catch-up is now the norm in key areas. I'm sure you saw Thursday's announcements so you know that next year Apple will have to make another jump. Luckily, that seems to be planned anyway so perhaps there is a silver lining in there somewhere. The problem is that next year isn't January, it's September and is a very long way off.
IMO, one of the key takeaways right now is that the lineup is solid (and especially from iPhone 11 down) actually competitive.
Stupid things remain like the woefully laughable 5W charger in the box on many models but put this year's lineup against last year's lineup and factor in how they stood with regards the competition and it is night and day. There is no guarantee it will pay off wildly but it is something that had to be done and yes, right down to the new textured and frosted finishes. I applaud the move but am aware of reality on the other side of the garden wall.
You are already saying that you are going to enjoy the Jan 2020 earnings call. That's a possibility. After all, Apple's entire cycle is built around the Christmas quarter and this year there are some very important price adjustments on show.
I give opinions on how I see things could play out based on how Apple is moving. I have been almost 100% right for the last three years (in fact before that too). I've criticised the company but also applauded some key strategic moves too. I've explained things clearly - as I see them - but my way isn't the only way to see things. Two different opinions can sometimes converge and be both right.
If you want a taste of hindsight try going back over your previous claims and seeing how they actually played out (and ironically, some of the January earnings reports claims, too).